Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Seahawks
Chiefs Over
Chargers
Cardinals
Tim Trushel
20* NFL GOY - Saints
Wunderdog
Denver/San Francisco Over 42
Jacksonville +6.5
Jacksonville/Dallas Over 43
Miami +1.5
Detroit -2.5
Green Bay +6
Green Bay/New York Under 43
Carolina +3
Carolina/St. Louis Over 37
Buffalo +7.5
Tennessee +3.5
Minnesota +6
Minnesota/New England Over 44
Tampa Bay +3.5
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 30-17-1 +33.60% (29-18-1 +27.30% with Sports Monitor)
3% CAROLINA +3 -120
3% MIAMI +2
3% ARIZONA -3 -120
3% HOUSTON +5.5
3% JACKSONVILLE/DALLAS OVER 42.5
San Francisco -1 Denver 42.5 (London)
SF lost at Carolina 23-20. They out rushed Carolina 4.5ypr to 2.2ypr but were out passed 7.2yps to 5.4yps. Overall, both teams averaged 5.0yppl. Denver was crushed at home by Oakland, 59-14. They allowed 328 yards rushing at 6.3ypr to 4.4ypr for themselves. Denver was out passed 8.2yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall 6.9yppl to 4.8yppl. Denver lost the turnover battle 3-0.
SF averages 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver averages 2.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl.
SF qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 155-77-6, including 6-1 this year. Numbers favor SF by 3.5 points and predict about 42 points. Part of Denver’s issues have been with injuries on defense. While they are still short handed in some areas, they appear to be getting back some help in the secondary this week in Goodman and Dawkins. I don’t trust the 49ers enough to be taking them as a best bet. SAN FRANCISCO 24 DENVER 21
DALLAS -6.5 Jacksonville 42.5
Jacksonville lost 42-20 at KC. They were out rushed 5.6ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 10.0yps to 6.2yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 5.2yppl. Jacksonville also turned the ball over three times to zero for KC. Dallas won the turnover battle against the Giants 5-2 but lost Tony Romo early in the game. They were out rushed 5.4ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed 8.3yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 4.5yppl.
Jacksonville averages 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 8.1yps against 6.7yps and 6.4yppl against 5.7yppl. Dallas averages 3.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl.
Dallas qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor performance last week, which is 93-46-4 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Dallas by 13 points and predict about 50 points. Those numbers obviously reflect Tony Romo’s production but he will miss this game and be replaced by John Kitna. Jacksonville has a defense that is well below average and going on the road is not a good idea with a poor defense. Dating back to last year, Jacksonville has now allowed at least 20 points in their last ten road games, including allowing an average of 30 points in those games. Dallas has a below average defense and their home games have totaled at least 47 points in each game, including allowing 27, 34 and 41 points. They’ll get their share of points at home against Jacksonville, even with Jon Kitna at quarterback but Jacksonville should get their share as well. DALLAS 30 JACKSONVILLE 23
DETROIT -2.5 Washington 44
Washington won 17-14 at Chicago and used six Bears turnovers to their advantage. They out rushed the Bears 4.3ypr to 4.1ypr and were out passed 5.8yps to 5.5yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.4yppl to 5.0yppl, in part because the Bears threw the ball 10 more times and ran 12 times more than the Bears. Detroit lost at the Giants 28-20 and were out rushed 5.6ypr to 3.0ypr but did out pass the Giants 5.9yps to 5.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.4yppl to 5.1yppl but they threw the ball 19 more times than the Giants to prop up the overall yards per play.
Washington averages 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. Detroit averages 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 5.5yps and 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl.
Detroit qualifies in my turnover table, which is 415-267-18. Washington qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 481-305-21. Detroit qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 123-52-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Detroit by two points and predict about 42 points. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 43-13-1. Not much of an opinion here as the situations go both ways and I would have leaned towards the over but the situation suggest a lower scoring game. DETROIT 23 WASHINGTON 20
NY JETS -6 Green Bay 42
Packers got a huge win over Minnesota last week 28-24. They were out rushed 5.4ypr to 3.7ypr but out passed Minnesota 8.4yps to 6.9yps. Overall, GB out gained the Vikings 6.5yppl to 6.1yppl. The Jets come off their bye week following a last minute come from behind victory at Denver. They out rushed Denver 4.3ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed them 5.9yps to 5.7yps and out gained them overall, 5.1yppl to 4.8yppl.
Green Bay averages 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. New York averages 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.6yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl.
The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 714-577-44 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor the Jets by three points and predict about 41 points. I have been on the Jets four straight weeks with success and went against them in week one. The only week I did not make them a best bet I leaned their way in week two against NE. But, they are slightly overrated when you compare it to their numbers. And, GB has lost three games this year all by just three points. However, GB is really banged up on the defensive line and the Jets figure to pound the ball at them. But, NY doesn’t throw the ball well and the Packers play good pass defense and can obviously throw the ball. I’ll lean slightly towards GB. NY JETS 24 GREEN BAY 20
ST LOUIS -3 Carolina 37
Carolina was out rushed in their 23-20 victory over SF 4.5ypr to 2.2ypr but they out passed the 49ers 7.2yps to 5.4yps. Overall, both teams averaged 5.0yppl. The Rams lost in the final minute to TB but they were out rushed 5.9ypr to 5.0ypr. They managed to out pass TB 4.6yps to 4.4yps but were out gained 4.9yppl to 4.8yppl.
Carolina averages 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.7yps against 5.9yps and 4.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. St. Louis averages 3.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.0yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl.
Carolina qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 155-77-6, including 6-1 this year. Numbers favor St. Louis by three points and predict about 28 points. Carolina brings the better defense and when that defense is better than the opponent’s offense and they are getting points, that’s a strong situation. Matt Moore gets the start as well and Steve Smith is back as they both were last week so the Carolina offense should play better than they have earlier this year. Better offense, better defense, strong situation and value (when situation is considered) all line up on Carolina. CAROLINA 21 ST LOUIS 10
CINCINNATI -2 Miami 43.5
Miami lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-22 but out rushed the Steelers 3.0ypr to 2.1ypr. They were out passed 9.7yps to 6.7yps and out gained overall 6.1yppl to 5.4ppl. Cincinnati fell behind 24-3, only to storm back to a 25-24 lead and then get out scored 15-8 to lose 39-32. They were out rushed 5.1ypr to 4.0ypr and out passed 9.1yps to 7.3yps. Overall, they were out gained 7.2yppl to 6.3yppl.
Miami averages 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Cincinnati averages 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.5yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.3yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl.
Cincinnati qualifies in a negative situation, which is 80-36-2. Numbers favor Miami by two points and predict about 43 points. Miami runs the ball better, throws the ball better, stops the run better and stops the pass better (although neither team stops the pass well). Throw in the situation and value along with Cincinnati’s poor history as a home favorite and Miami’s ability to win on the road (3-0 this year) and I like Miami. MIAMI 24 CINCINNATI 17
KANSAS CITY -7.5 Buffalo 46
Buffalo lost a heart breaker at Baltimore in OT 37-34. They were out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.8ypr but out passed the Ravens 8.5yps to 6.9yps. Overall, they out gained Baltimore 6.4yppl to 5.9yppl. KC defeated Jacksonville 42-20 at home. They out rushed Jacksonville 5.6ypr to 3.7ypr, including 236 yards rushing. They out passed Jacksonville 10.0yps to 6.2yps and out gained them overall, 7.0yppl to 5.2yppl.
Buffalo averages 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Kansas City averages 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.6yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl.
Buffalo qualifies in a winless team situation, which is 88-39-6. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 415-267-18. If this line were only -7, KC would qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 445-304-21 and 481-305-21. Numbers favor KC by 14 points and predict about 49 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been terrific since starting as he has averaged 6.8yps compared to the 5.6yps the team has averaged overall this year. They have scored at least 26 points in three of his four starts. Value still lies with KC even if I only use Fitzpatricks numbers and so I will lean slightly with KC. Better play here is probably the over but the value has been knocked out of it somewhat. KANSAS CITY 30 BUFFALO 20
SAN DIEGO -3.5 Tennessee 44
Tennessee fell behind early at home to Philly but managed to storm back and win easily 37-19. They were out rushed 4.1ypr to 2.9ypr but out passed Philly 7.4yps to 4.6yps. Overall, they out gained Philly 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Those numbers were probably even worse when you consider Philly threw the ball 15 times more than Tennessee. SD lost at home to NE 23-20 and once again, as in all of their losses, they won the battle at the line of scrimmage but found a new way to lose. This week SD turned the ball over four times to zero for NE. They were out rushed 2.3ypr to 2.0ypr but out passed NE 6.3yps to 3.6yps and out gained NE 5.1yppl to 3.1yppl. They did throw the ball 16 more times than NE to inflate the overall numbers somewhat.
Tennessee averages 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl. San Diego averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.2yppl against 4.9yppl.
SD qualifies in my turnover table, which is 415-267-18. They also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 68-21-4 as well as a fundamental rushing situation as long as the line is -4 or better. That situation is 160-88-11. The situations clearly favor SD as does the value but SD is again likely to be without WR Floyd and Naanee. Hard for me to pull the trigger on SD with the injuries and their constant beating of themselves with turnovers and special teams. I will lean their way but can’t trust them. SAN DIEGO 24 TENNESSEE 20
ARIZONA -3.5 Tampa Bay 39.5
TB came from behind in the last minute to defeat St. Louis 18-17. They out rushed the Rams 5.9ypr to 5.0ypr but were out passed 4.6yps to 4.4yps. Overall, they out gained the Rams 4.9yppl to 4.8yppl. Arizona suffered a tough defeat at Seattle 22-10. But, they out played Seattle from the line of scrimmage as they out rushed the Seahawks 5.7ypr to 4.0ypr, were out passed 3.7yps to 3.3yps but sacked Seattle five times and did a much better job throwing the ball when Derek Anderson was in the game as he averaged 5.6yps. Overall, Arizona out gained Seattle 4.1yppl to 3.8yppl. The biggest culprit was a -4 in turnover margin for Arizona.
TB averages 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 5.3ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. Arizona averages 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl.
Arizona qualifies in my turnover table, which is 415-267-18.. They also qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 445-304-21 and 481-305-21. Numbers favor Arizona by two points and predict about 41 points. TB is actually 2-0 on the road this year but their defense is terrible and Arizona played well enough to win last week. I don’t trust Max Hall at quarterback but I’m hoping the poor TB defense, the fact Steve Breaston comes back this week, Arizona is back at home where they play better is all enough to get the cover laying a short number. ARIZONA 27 TAMPA BAY 16
OAKLAND -2.5 Seattle 42
Seattle got the 22-10 victory over Arizona last week but they were lucky to do so. They were out rushed 5.7ypr to 4.0ypr, did out pass Arizona 3.7yps to 3.3yps but gave up 5.6yps when Derek Anderson replaced Matt Hall in the game. Overall, they were out gained 4.1yppl to 3.8yppl and benefited from a +4 in turnover margin. Oakland destroyed Denver early and often in their 59-14 victory. They rushed for a whopping 328 yards at 6.3ypr and allowed 4.4ypr. They out passed Denver 8.2yps to 5.0yps and out gained them overall 6.9yppl to 4.8yppl.
Seattle averages 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 3.3ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 6.0yppl. Oakland averages 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl.
Oakland qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 87-42-9. Numbers favor Seattle by one point and predict about 45 points. Seattle would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation if needed tonight. Seattle came up with a big win on the road two weeks ago in Chicago but they have struggled lately on the road. Since the beginning of last year i games not involving St. Louis, they have allowed at least 20 points in those nine games and at least 31 points in seven of those nine games. And, in those same games on the road against teams other than the Rams, they have failed to top 20 points, including no more than 17 points in seven of those nine games. Oakland hasn’t been great at home lately but they are 2-1 there this year and I like the make up of this team. OAKLAND 27 SEATTLE 17
NEW ENGLAND -6.5 Minnesota 43.5
Minnesota lost at GB 28-24. They out rushed a beat up GB defensive line 5.4ypr to 3.7ypr but were out passed 8.4yps to 6.9yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.5yppl to 6.1yppl. NE got away with a victory at SD 23-20 but were out gained in the game. They did out rush SD 2.3ypr to 2.0ypr but were out passed 6.3yps to 3.6yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.1yppl to 3.1yppl although SD did throw the ball 16 more times.
Minnesota averages 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. New England averages 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4ps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NE by 2.5 points and predict about 44 points. The jury is still out as to who will play quarterback for Minnesota this week. Minnesota has the better defense and their defense is better than NE’s offense. When a team is in this situation and getting points, that’s a solid situation. But, must remember Minnesota has also lost seven straight road games but they are getting a healthy does of points in this game. I will lean their way. NEW ENGLAND 24 MINNESOTA 19
NEW ORLEANS -1 Pittsburgh 44.5
The Steelers came away with a last minute victory over Miami 23-22. They were out rushed 3.0ypr to 2.1ypr but out passed Miami 9.7yps to 6.7yps. Overall, they out gained Miami 6.1yppl to 5.4yppl. NO was upset at home 30-17 and were out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.7ypr. They did out pass Cleveland 5.7yps to 4.7yps and out gained them overall 5.1yppl to 4.6yppl but also threw the ball 41 more times than Cleveland to skew those numbers somewhat.
Pittsburgh averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 2.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 6.1yppl. New Orleans averages 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.5yps and 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl.
Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 714-577-44 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by one point and predict about 40 points. The Saints still have injuries in the secondary and Pittsburgh lost Aaron Smith last week after losing Brett Keisel the week before on defense. Steelers have the much better defense and are actually throwing the ball better than NO. This game may be higher scoring than “they” think. PITTSBURGH 27 NEW ORLEANS 24
Ben Burns
49ers / Broncos Under 41
Saints -3
Lions -3
Chargers -4
Cardinals -3
Joseph D'Amico
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +1½
Big Ben is back. Last week, Rothlisberger might have had some issues with ball-handling but certainly looks sharp overall. He has tallied 559 YP, a 64.8% completion rate, 5 TDs, and just 1 INT. All that in just 2 games back from suspension. The Pitt “D” is tops in the NFL in points allowed with a mere 13.7 PPG. They let Miami score 22 LW in their victory. That was the most allowed by the stop unit this season. They will come back and take it out on a bewildered OL of New Orleans and QB Drew Brees. Pitt did get “banged up” with injuries to Smith and Woodley on defense. Check status before game time. With or without them, IT WON’T MATTER. New Orleans is scoring less than ever with Brees tossing 10 INTs TY. Last season, he totaled 11 overall. I know the lack of a rushing game has hurt the offense. There is talk that Reggie Bush may make a return (check status). But if you were a RB coming back from injury, would you want to do it against this Steelers defense??? The Saints were embarrassed yet again LW by the 3rd rookie QB this season. Slumping offense just don’t fare well against great defenses. Also, RB Rashard Mendenhall will pound the ball up the middle and churn out yardage against the “cushy” Saints line. I looked at the schedule and saw that Pittsburgh can run the gauntlet and win each contest remaining on their schedule. They won’t slip up here. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS their L5 road games vs. teams with a winning home record, 27-13-1 ATS their L41 games played in October, and 5-2-1 their L8 overall. The Saints are 1-4 ATS their L5 at home, 3-7 ATS their L10 following an ATS loss, and 1-5 ARS their L6 overall. Take Pittsburgh.
Jim Feist
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Tennessee Over
Oakland
Buffalo Over
Tennessee
Pittsburgh Over
John Fina
5 Units Carolina Panthers +3.5
3 Units Buffalo Bills +7.5
3 Units Buffalo/Kansas City Over 45.5
3 Units Cincinnati Bengals Pick
The Boss
500% Untouchable play San Diego
300% Bookie buster parlay Kansas city, NY Jets, San Diego
200% Dog pound Washington
100% Silent assassins Under Carolina, Over Houston, Over Seattle
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* San Diego
4* Minnesota
4* New Orleans
3* Buffalo
3* Detroit
DOUBLE DRAGON
HYDRA
STEELERS +1
NY JETS -6
LIONS -1.5
DOLPHINS +1.5
BUCS +3
CHARGERS -4
TEXANS+5.5
The Gold Medal
50* Cincinnati
50* San Diego
25* Denver
25* Green Bay
25* Dallas
401ksports
4* DALLAS -6.5 over Jacksonville
Alright I'm sure everyone is going to call me nuts here having the Cowboys as my top play here today, but go with a minute here. First the Jags have allowed 106 points in 3 road games in 2 of those 3 games they faced the #1 and #12 offenses and allowed 38 and 42 points respectfully. In their last 10 road games they are allowing 29+ points a game and the Jags are 1-9 ATS after allowing 30+ points. The jags only have a total of 12 sacks and 7 turnovers in seven games this season. Now there are a lot things that have went wrong for the Cowboys. They have shot themselves in the foot quite often this year and have now lost QB Romo. In steps Jon Kitna and I'm one of those that think this could be a good thing as i think the offense will be little more consistent and more balanced with Kitna under center. It cannot hurt that Kitna's first start as a Cowboy comes against a team like Jacksonville who is #30 on defense and are allowing 6.5 yards per play which ranks them dead last. Remember the Cowboys one win this year was against the Texans who rank #32 on defense and the Cowboys last 3 losses have come against 3 of the better defenses. I believe we see a more balanced Cowboys team here and a team that I think will rally around Kitna. The Cowboys will get their 2nd victory of the year.......Dallas 30 Jacksonville 17!!!
Arthur Ralph
Super Pick - KC Chiefs Over 44
David Banks
Washington +3
Buffalo +7
San Diego -4
Arizona -3
New Orleans -1
New Orleans/Pittsburgh OVER 44.5
Oklahoma City -6
Golden State +9.5
Texas -138