Pro Tech Sports
7* St Louis -2
5* Dallas -6.5
5* Kansas City -7
5* Tampa Bay +3
5* Seattle +2.5
5* Jacksonville Over 44
5* Arizona Under 39
Brian Gabrielle
Steelers at Saints
Pick: Steelers +1.5
The 3 golden rules of Real Estate has been repeated by many "Location, location, location!"
For sports handicappers the 3 golden rules can be stated in a similar fashion "Value, value, value!"
The pursuit then becomes identifying this value and getting down on the best of it. When placing bets on football games there are two key components of value, they are;
1.) Line Value: This is universal. No matter what sport you are betting on, you need to know what the actual advantage is that one team holds over another. This is done using an accurate Power Rating. The more accurate the Power Ratings, the more readily identifiable the line value is.
Put simply, an accurate Power Rating will tell you that "Team A" should be favored by XYZ over "Team B". When you compare XYZ to the offered pointspread, the difference (if any) between the two represents the value in the play.
At BG Sports we are very fortunate to have the BGS Power Ratings which have long been recognized as the most accurate power ratings in existence for the purposes of sports gambling. Refereed to as "The Oddsmakers Bible", the BGS Power Ratings have the distinction of being the most accurate predictor of Pointspreads, including the all time record of predicting the outcome of every single game during the 2006 NFL season at over 60% accuracy. No other Power Rating on the planet has ever come close to this still-standing record.
2.) Score Value or Key Numbers: Football doesn't score like other sports. Points are scored most often in 3's (FG's) and 7's (converted TD's). For this reason there is tremendous consideration that has to be given to pointspreads which land on one side or the other of key numbers 3, 7, 10 & 14 with 6, 13 & 17 also worth some special attention.
It is important to ALWAYS be on the right side of those key numbers. So with underdogs you want +3.5, +7.5, +10.5 for example instead of +3, +7, +10 and you NEVER want +2.5, +6.5, +9.5. The reverse is true for favorites. You always want -2.5, -6.5, -9.5 instead of -3, -7 and -10 and you NEVER want -3.5, -7.5 or -10.5.
Many books allow you you BUY to the right side of the half point, which is always recommended and in cases where you like a -3.5 favorite, I would even recommend just playing the team on the moneyline.
Anyways, lesson aside, we are looking for football wagers that posses (amongst other things) both Line Value and Score Value.
This game has both.
Everybody is waiting for the defending Super Bowl champs to get back on track, and certainly playing host to the Steelers on Sunday Night football is as good a time as any. But there is a reason the Saints aren't winning and there is nothing to suggest that changes this week.
In fact, the BGS Power Ratings show the Saints as a false favorite here, as the Steelers are actually -10 1/2 points better even here in New Orleans. A neutral field would have the Steelers favored by 2 TD's and Pittsburgh would be an enormous favorite back home.
Pittsburgh 27, New Orleans 17
Ben Burns
8* Texas Rangers
While I won with the Giants for Game 1 in San Francisco, I came back with the Rangers for Game 1 at Texas yesterday. They won that one and are now right back in the series. I expect them to follow it up with another victory this evening. Here was an excerpt from yesterday's writeup. I've included it here, as its still applicable: "... For starters, the Rangers are a far stronger team at home. They were 51-30 here during the season, as compared to only 39-42 on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants aren't as good away from San Francisco. On of the reasons for the better record here, is that the Rangers are more comfortable hitting in their own park. They averaged 5.3 runs and hit .286 here. True, it can be a good hitter's ballpark. However, opposing teams didn't hit too well here. Visiting teams hit .248 here and averaged only 4.2 runs. Note that those stats are nearly identical to what the Giants typically do on the road. Returning home also allows the Rangers to get Vladimar Guerrero's bat back in the lineup, as a DH, which is obviously significant. As Texas manager Ron Washington noted: "We get to get all of our weapons in that lineup. It's just comfortable to be back home in front of our fans. We can draw energy from them, and that's what we need..." After the victory, Washington would go on to say: "I feel great. We wanted to get back home. We felt comfortable here. We knew we could finally put a good game together, and we did." Hunter gets the call for the Rangers. While the postseason has been tough thus far, lets not forget that he was 13-4 with a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 23 games (22 starts) this season. Keep in mind that his postseason struggles have come against elite hitting teams from the American League, as he's had to deal with Tampa Bay and the Yankees. Now, he faces a weaker lineup, one which hasn't seen him yet. The only Giant hitters with experience against him are Burrell (1 for 3) and Ross (0 for 1). Bumgarner has proven to be capable. However, he's also arguably the weakest of the four SF starters. He's been mediocre in two playoff starts (4.22 ERA) and now he'll have to contend with a tough Texas lineup which thrives here at home. Remember, this is a pitcher who was still pitching at the Triple-A level in June. Note that Hunter is a lot better at home. In fact, he had a perfect 7-0 record here this season and the Rangers are 15-5 his L20 home starts. Also, note that Hunter, who hasn't walked a batter yet these playoffs (12 Ks, 0 walks) was 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in interleague play. I expect Hunter to bounce back with his best game and for that to help lead to Texas tying things up.
HEISMAN TROPHY CLUB
5* Cardinals
Andy Fanelli
Oakland Raiders
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Saints
15 Dime Chargers
Street Rosenthal
*200 Arizona Cardinals -3
Jen Barry
Tennessee Titans +4