Daily Power Ratings
3* San Diego +7 1 Unit
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: New England Over 44.5
Cleveland +6
Miami +1
Dallas -3
Lenny Del Genio
25* NFC North Game of the Year.
Play Detroit Lions + 10 at Chicago Bears
Break up the Lions! After 644 days, 92 weeks and 19 straight losses, Detroit finally won a game, upsetting Washington at home last week as 9.5-point favorites. After playing well for spurts in the first two games (led Minnesota at the half in Wk 2), the team finally put it all together for a full four quarters and beat a solid defensive team in the Redskins (while inept offensively). New HC Jim Schwartz, who quotes Shakespeare, has his team playing disciplined football, a foreign concept during previous seasons in the Motor City. Deciding to go with overall #1 DC Matthew Stafford at QB was a wise move as he continues to "learn on the job" and get better every week. What can the Lions possibly do for an encore? How about record their first road win since mid-'07 in the exact same place they last won on the road (current 13-game losing streak)? Yes, we're serious. Detroit has certainly performed well, from an ATS perspective that is, covering six of their past seven contests away from Ford Field. Don't think that the team won't also be motivated by the chance to end another losing skid, 10 straight division losses. Chicago, 2-1 on the season, is fairly overrated from where we sit. They have been outstatted in 25 of their last 35 games. Lost in the whole "Jay Cutler is the best QB the Bears have had in years" is the fact that RB Matt Forte has seen his production drop down to 50 YPG following a fine rookie campaign. The defense, which was mediocre at best to begin with, got a lot more mediocre with the loss of LB Urlacher. The Bears could be caught looking a~head to the bye week in Week 5. Over the last three seasons, they are 0-4 ATS when coming off BB wins and they are 1-7 ATS as double-digit favorites.Detroit is our 25* NFC North Game of the Year.
The Boss
500% "Untouchable DIVISION PLAY OF THE YEAR" CINCY BENGALS
300% "BOOKIE BUSTER BLOWOUT PARLAY" CINCY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRAN
200% "DOG POUND" DETROIT
100% "SILENT ASSASSINS" BUFFALO, PITT, TENNESSEE
Doc's Sports
5 Unit Play. Take Detroit +10 over Chicago Game of the Week.
The monkey is off the back of the Detroit Lions, as they snapped their 19 game losing streak last Sunday against the Washington Redskins. They now play a familiar division foe in the Chicago Bears, a team they have covered against four of the last five meetings. I am still not sold on the Bear’s receiving core and Detroit has held up pretty good against the run, holding the Redskins last week to just 44 yards (3.6 ypc). The Bears picked up an impressive win last week in Seattle, but remember that came against a Hawks team without starting quarterback Matt Haselbeck. Just too many points to be laying in a divisional game with two defensive minded coaches. Chicago 21, Detroit 17.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 45 in New York at New Orleans Top Totals Play.
The Saints have been an automatic over play in 2009 and I do not put too much stock into their low scoring victory last week against Buffalo. The weather conditions were not good with a lot of wind and despite that New Orleans still put up 27 points. Now the total is back under fifty and playing this game in a dome is just too good to pass up. This is the best team in the league offensively and they are playing a team that has looked great under rookie QB Mark Sanchez. We will not worry if the Saints can cover this touchdown spread in just collect with the over, as both teams reach the twenties in scoring. New Orleans 27, New York 24.
4 Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh -6½ over San Diego
The Steelers face a must win situation on Sunday night, as the defending champions cannot afford to fall to 1-3 on the season. The Steelers have had good success against the Chargers in recent years beating the them twice in 2008 including an 11-point playoff victory in the divisional round. This is also another case of west coast teams not playing well when traveling east. The Chargers have had a very easy schedule thus far that included two home games and a road game at Oakland. They have yet to look that impressive and did lose to Baltimore at home. Ladainian Tomlinson is still nursing a bad ankle and this team is just not the same without him. In the NFL, when good teams met, the team that needs is more usually gets it and Pittsburgh needs this one badly. Pittsburgh 27, San Diego 17.
4 Unit Play. Take Green Bay +3½ over Minnesota
It is the game that needs no introduction and will likely be the most watched event on ESPN EVER! QB Brett Favre faces his former team in the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are atop the standing in the NFC North with a 3-0 record that included a dramatic come from behind victory last week against the San Francisco 49ers. In that game Favre through the go ahead touchdown with just two seconds remaining. That being said, the 49ers did cover that game and we had them as a selection and will go against the Vikings again in their second straight home game. QB Aaron Rogers played well in his game last week against the Rams throwing two touchdowns and numerous deep balls. I feel that these teams are evenly matched and this one will go right down to the wire with the Packers finding a way to win it in the closing seconds. One of the things novice gamblers get caught up when betting NFL games is the carryover effect. One would think that the Vikings will be riding high, but in truth there is no carryover effect. Everybody is a paid professional and momentum just does not propel teams to victory like it does in college football. Green Bay 27, Minnesota 24.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville
Must win here for the Titans. And you can argue it was just that for them last week against the Jets. But Tennessee did have a lead and the ball in the second half, well, before their punt returner fumbled the ball to swing the game. But the Jags defense isn't any good and right now I still see more in an 0-3 Titans team than a home Jacksonville team. We'll lay the number on the road in this divisional tie.
2-Unit Play. Take Cincinnati -6 over Clevelnd
It's the Bengals defense that has me impressed so far. Cincy has done well to turnaround with a 2-1 mark after a tough loss to begin the season. But right now you can't say enough bad things about the Browns, so laying some points doesn't seem all bad. We'll fade Cleveland and back Cincinnati off their big comeback win over the Steelers.
3-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay/Washington Under 37
There's just way too much offensive ineptness between these two struggling teams not to get on the 'under'. Tampa Bay is starting rookie Josh Johnson, who didn't even play I-A football, so no way he doesn't hit a wall in first ever NFL game. And as far as Washington is concerned, I see more of the same with an offense that continues to sputter. Neither will get 20, but if one does, the under still will be good. 17-14 type of game.
6-Unit Game of the Month. Take Buffalo -2 over Miami
Maybe it's just me, but I fail to see how this Dolphins team can win here without a quarterback. No matter how impressive the Wildcat formation can be, you can't win NFL games without zero production from under center. And not to pressume too much, but I don't see Chad Henne or anyone else moving the ball through the air. And let's remember, this Bills defense pretty much owned Tom Brady and the Patriots for 57 minutes in their opener and held the explosive Drew Brees to just 172 passing yards and no touchdowns. And with Marshawn Lynch's suspension over, he can add another dimension to this offense to compliment some good things that Fred Jackson has done. Buffalo is 25-7-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. losing teams. Miami isn't scoring enough to change their doughnut in the win column. We feel confident Buffalo's defense will continue to carry the load, while Trent Edwards and the Bills offense makes enough plays to leave Landshark Stadium with a divisional victory.
TONY GEORGE
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Under 41.5
Tough, physical, run oriented game. 13-10 type battle here..a must win for both teams, field position and ball control. Neither team offensive power.
Play 1 Unit on the Under.
New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: NY Giants -9
Not concerned about NY overlooking KC with Coughlin as head coach. Kansas Citys offensive line is the WORST in the NFL and going up against one of the best DL in the NFL, not to mention ball hawking secondary that Cassel will no dount hurry passes into, and KC is without best WR Bowe this week with injury. KC traded or waived 2 more players this week and got TE Pope from Arizona to try and get a few verticle palys going with his size, doubt he is ready to know all the plays yet, been in town 4 days! Giants 21-5 ATS their last 26 road games because they focus every game and are extremely well coached. I admit that NY is on their third straight road game, BUT they are one of the NFLs best road teams, one of the best NFL teams around right now and going up against a team who lost by 3 at home 2 weeks ago against the Raiders, a division rival with QB Russel at the helm!!!..enough said...lay it.
Play 1 Unit on NY
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Detroit +10
Not buying into the win last week for the Lions, but am buying into the fact they are cover machine against the Bear in recent times. QB Stafford playing weel, WR Calvibn Johnson best offensive player on the field that wioll make a few big plays. Having that 800 pound gorilla off their backs should give the Lions alittle swagger and actually their offense socres more points than the Bears, who looked sluggish at best against a weak Seattle team last week. Chicago skill players banged up, Forte and Clark both to play but nagging injuries have them less than 100%. Forte averaging less than 50 yards a game on the ground....Detroit 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings.
Play 1 Unit on Detroit.
2 team 6 Point Teaser..PLAY 2 UNITS..Tease Cincinanati down (pk to -.5) and Tease Indy down to -4
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 11-8 +6.60%
3% TENNESSEE –3
3% CINCINNATI –5.5
3% NEW ORLEANS –7
3% DENVER +3
3% PITTSBURGH –6
3% MINNESOTA –3.5
3% BALTIMORE/NEW ENGLAND OVER 44.5 - Rain expected here on Sunday which is fine but I would wait to play this because that will bring the total down
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
HOUSTON –8.5 Oakland 41.5
Houston flopped on defense last week as expected. They allowed Jacksonville to gain 6.5yppl, including 184 yards rushing at 5.9ypr and 214 yards passing at 7.1yps. They did gain 111 yards rushing themselves at 5.0ypr, 286 yards passing at 7.7yps and averaged 6.7yppl. Oakland was destroyed by Denver 23-3. They were out gained 4.8ypr to 4.1ypr, 6.8yps to 1.8yps and 5.5yppl to 2.9yppl. For the season, Oakland averages just 4.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.1yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 3.8ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.9yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They do play good pass defense and that will help in this game. Houston averages 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 6.2ypr against 4.7ypr, 7.4yps against 5.9yps and 6.8yppl against 5.3yppl. As bad as Oakland’s offense is Houston’s defense is even worse. Houston qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 118-50-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Houston by only four points and predict 47 points. I used Oakland on the road a few weeks ago against KC but as bad as Houston is on defense, they have a good enough offense to keep Oakland from winning this game. The situation, which plays against Houston is very strong and I will lean Oakland’s way because of that, but they just aren’t good enough right now to bet in this situation. HOUSTON 24 OAKLAND 17
Tennessee –3 JACKSONVILLE 41.5
Tennessee lost last week at the Jets but they easily out played NY at the line of scrimmage. They out gained the Jets 4.1yppl to 3.6yppl, including out rushing them 4.2ypr to 2.7ypr. Two fumbled special teams plays recovered by the Jets gave the Jets two touchdowns. Jacksonville went to Houston and won as a dog. They were slightly out gained overall by Houston 6.7yppl to 6.5yppl and out passed 7.7yps to 7.1yps but out rushed Houston 5.9ypr to 5.0ypr. They also allowed Houston to rush for 111 yards at those 5.0ypr. Houston isn’t rushing the ball well this year so that doesn’t bode well for Jacksonville against Tennessee this week. Tennessee averages 5.6ypr against 4.9ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 2.2ypr against 3.5ypr and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville likes to run the ball averaging 5.1ypr against 4.7ypr but is averaging just 5.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl. Their defense is below average, allowing 3.7ypr against 3.4ypr, 7.8yps against 7.5yps and 6.1yppl against 6.0yppl. Tennessee matches up well against Jacksonville being able to do well what Jacksonville doesn’t do well (rush the ball versus stopping the rush) on both sides of the ball. Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 449-289-21. Numbers favor Tennessee by six and predict about 45 points. Tennessee won by 10 here last year, has won the last two here and five of the last seven here. They are simply too strong at the point of attack. They need a win in the worse way. I don’t think Jeff Fisher will let his team quit and their schedule gets hard again after this week. This should be a completely focused Titans team. TENNESSEE 27 JACKSONVILLE 17
NEW ENGLAND –2 Baltimore 44.5
Patriots got by Atlanta last week 26-10 and ran 36 more plays than Atlanta. Atlanta out gained NE 5.7yppl to 5.5yppl, including out passing them 7.1yps to 6.6yps but were out rushed by NE 4.3ypr to 3.4ypr. Baltimore rolled over a terrible Cleveland team 34-3. They out gained the Browns 7.3yppl to 3.6yppl, including out rushing them 5.1ypr to 3.1ypr and out passing them 8.9yps to 4.0yps. This isn’t your same Ravens offense any longer. They average 7.5yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense they allow just 2.5ypr against 3.2ypr but are allowing 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 4.8yppl to make them below average on defense at this point. NE is averaging 6.0yps against 5.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl making them below average as well. NE qualifies in situations, which are 78-39-7 and 81-38-7 but Baltimore qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 541-410-30 and 449-289-21. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em giving value to Baltimore. NE is banged up on defense and also banged up at the receiver position. Numbers predict about 48 points in this game. Baltimore has scored in the 30’s in every game this year, NE has scored in the mid-twenties in both home games this year. Both teams throw the ball well and neither is defending the pass well to this point. A reasonable number means I like the over in this game. BALTIMORE 30 NEW ENGLAND 24
Cincinnati –5.5 CLEVELAND 38
Bengal’s did what they needed to do last week to defeat Pittsburgh. They were out gained in the game 6.2yppl to 4.7yppl, including being out passed 8.5yps to 4.4yps. They did out rush Pittsburgh 5.3ypr to 3.6ypr. Cleveland was blown out at Baltimore 34-3. They were out gained 5.1ypr to 3.1ypr, 8.9yps to 4.0yps and 7.3yppl to 3.6yppl. They will start Anderson (yawn) at qb this week to try and change things up. For the season, Cincinnati averages 4.2ypr against 3.7ypr, 5.6yps against 5.4yps and 5.0yppl against 4.7yppl. They allow 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Cleveland averages just 4.2yps against 5.4yps and 3.9yppl against 4.5yppl. They allow 5.4ypr against 4.7ypr, 6.8yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. Cincinnati qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 541-410-30 and 449-289-21. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 10.5 points and predict about 46 points. Bengal’s won here last year 14-0 and have won three of the last four here by at least 14 points. Cleveland has lost their last seven games by 19, 20, 14, 31, 14, 21 and 31 points. Other than the Viking game, they haven’t scored more than 10 points in their last nine games. They scored 20 against Minnesota but seven came on a punt return and another seven came at the end of the game when the game was put away. Very difficult to take Cleveland knowing they haven’t been competitive in a long time. Cincinnati is now 2-1 and a win here would be big for them. No letdown for Cincinnati. CINCINNAT 31 CLEVELAND 14
NY Giants –8.5 KANSAS CITY 42
A banged up Giants team steamrolled TB last week 24-0. They out rushed TB 226-28 at 4.6ypr to 2.8ypr, out passed them 171-58 at 6.3yps to 2.2yps and 397 total yards to 86 total yards at 5.2yppl to 2.4yppl. KC was blown out at Philly, 34-14 and out passed 9.1yps to 4.4yps and out gained 6.7yppl to 3.8yppl. KC has been better on offense this year but is still below average. They average 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl. The rush defense has been good, giving up just 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr but the pass defense allows 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. The Giants have not run the ball well (despite last week), gaining just 4.0ypr against 4.8ypr but are throwing the ball for 7.9yps against 7.1yps and average 5.8yppl against 6.0yppl overall. They are allowing 6.1ypr against 5.2ypr but just 4.4yps against 6.5yps and 5.1yppl against 6.0yppl overall. KC qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 73-33-1. Numbers favor NY by 9 points and predict about 42 points. I will lean with KC because of the situation and this is the third straight week on the road for the Giants. NY GIANTS 24 KANSAS CITY 17
CHICAGO –10 Detroit 40
Detroit picked up their first win of the season and in over a year last week against Washington. They won the game and controlled the clock for 13 minutes more than Washington and ran 84 plays to 57 plays for Washington. But, they were out gained 6.8yppl to 5.1yppl, including being out passed 7.6yps to 6.0yps. Washington just couldn’t finish drives or get off the field allowing long drives by Detroit. Chicago went to Seattle and came from behind after allowing Seattle to jump out to a 13-0 lead. The Bears out gained Seattle 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl, including out passing them 8.0yps to 5.2yps but did get out rushed 3.7ypr to 3.0ypr. Jay Cutler has now led Chicago to three straight fourth quarter come from behind drives (they lost the GB game but won the other two). Detroit is below average on offense, gaining just 5.2yps against 5.6yps and 4.4yppl against 4.8yppl. They allow 7.7yps against 6.6yps and 6.4yppl against 5.7yppl so the defense is still very bad. Chicago has not run the ball well, averaging just 2.8ypr against 4.4ypr but they are averaging 6.9yps against 5.7yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl making them average on offense. They allow just 5.1yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. The Bears qualify in a very strong letdown situation this week, which is 108-37-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Chicago by 15 and predict about 43 points. Detroit has been competitive here the last two years and given the situation I would consider taking them but the numbers just don’t back it up so it’s just a lean for me. CHICAGO 23 DETROIT 20
WASHINGTON –7.5 Tampa Bay 37
The Redskins are sinking fast. They lost to Detroit last week so it can’t get much worse for them. They did out gain Detroit 6.8yppl to 5.1yppl, including out passing them 7.6yps to 6.0yps. They couldn’t get Detroit off the field as they had the ball for 13 minutes less than Detroit and ran only 57 plays to 84 for Detroit. As bad as Washington’s loss to Detroit was, at least it was on the road and they did out gain Detroit. TB lost at home and was throttled. They gained only 86 yards while allowing the Giants to gain 397 yards. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 2.4yppl, 6.3yps to 2.2yps and 4.6ypr to 2.8ypr. TB averages just 4.3ypr against 5.0ypr, 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 8.4yps against 7.0yps and 6.6yppl against 6.2yppl. Washington only averages 4.0ypr against 4.8ypr but they are about average passing and average 5.8yppl against 5.9yppl making them about average overall on offense. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.3yppl against 5.0yppl. They will probably also be without Albert Haynesworth for this game. I don’t have any situations for this game. Numbers favor Washington by nine points and predict about 28 points. Biggest lean here is to the under. WASHINGTON 20 TAMPA BAY 10
INDIANAPOLIS –10.5 Seattle 44
Seattle jumped out to a 13-0 lead last week but couldn’t hold on and lost to Chicago. They were out played in the game, getting out gained 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl, including being out passed 8.0yps to 5.2yps. They did out rush Chicago 3.7ypr to 3.0ypr. Indianapolis was phenomenal as they defeated Arizona 31-10. They out gained Arizona 7.7yppl to 4.6yppl, including out passing them 10.8yps to 5.2yps and out rushed them 4.1ypr to 2.0ypr. That was very impressive considering Indy had numerous injuries on defense. For the season, Seattle averages 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl but is allowing 5.6ypr against 4.9ypr and 5.4yppl against 4.9yppl. Indy averages 9.9yps against 7.7yps and 7.2yppl against 5.9yppl. They allow just 4.7yps against 5.5yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl overall. I don’t have any situations for this game. Numbers favor Indy by 15 and predict about 39 points. Senaca Wallace gets the start at quarterback again this week. INDIANAPOLIS 24 SEATTLE 13
NEW ORLEANS –7 NY Jets 45
Jets won last week against Tennessee but they were out played. They were out gained 4.1yppl to 3.6yppl, including being out rushed 4.2ypr to 2.7ypr. They benefited from two Titan fumbled kick returns, which led to two Jets touchdowns. NO went to Buffalo and the game was close for a while but they eventually pulled away for a 27-7 win. They out gained Buffalo 5.5yppl to 4.0yppl, including out rushing them 5.8ypr to 4.2ypr and out passing them 5.0yps to 3.9yps. They didn’t have their usual pass efficiency but Buffalo’s only touchdown came on a fake field goal. The Jets are 3-0 and playing well but their numbers aren’t nearly as good as NO. They average just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.3yps against 6.9yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.7yppl. On defense they have been stellar, allowing 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.3yps against 6.2yps and 4.2yppl against 5.5yppl. NO has been outstanding on both sides of the ball. They average 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Everyone knows NO can throw the ball. What has changed this year is they are rushing the ball, averaging 171 yards per game against teams allowing just 112 yards per game. They have always been weak on defense but this year they are allowing just 69 yards per game against teams averaging 120 yards per game. That defense, along with the best passing offense in the league (although Indy is better currently this year), makes it very tough to defeat this team. Especially when you have the Jets coming in here and they like to run the ball. The Jets qualify in a letdown situation, which is 78-39-7 and plays against them here. Numbers favor NO by 10.5 and predict about 40 points. NEW ORLEANS 30 NY JETS 14
Buffalo –1 MIAMI 37
Both teams were beaten soundly last week. Buffalo was out gained 5.5yppl to 4.0yppl and Miami was out gained 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl. Buffalo averages 5.3ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.5yps against 6.6yps and 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl overall. They allow just 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl. Miami averages just 4.6yps against 5.6yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 6.1yppl against 6.1yppl. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 37 points. I don’t have any strong feeling here with no situations applying to this game. Chad Pennington is gone for the season and Chad Henne will get the start. I will lean weakly towards Buffalo. BUFFALO 21 MIAMI 17
SAN FRANCISCO –9.5 St Louis 37
Tough loss for SF last week as they not only lost the game but lost Frank Gore for at least three weeks. SF played well enough to win but was on the other end of a fantastic throw by Favre at the end of the game. They out gained Minnesota 5.0yppl to 4.7yppl. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 2.2ypr but did hold a good Minnesota rushing attack to just 3.5ypr. They also threw the ball for 7.2yps to just 5.9yps for Minnesota. The Rams were blown out at home against GB. They were out gained 6.5yppl to 4.9yppl, including allowing GB 10.0yps to just 5.2yps for St. Louis. They did rush for 149 yards at 4.5ypr but allowed GB to rush for 152 yards at 4.1ypr. The Rams do average 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr but average just 4.6yps against 5.9yps for a total of 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. SF is below average on offense gaining just 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by 13.5 and predict about 35 points. I had SF in this game last year and they blew out the Rams 35-16. I don’t see it any different this year. SAN FRANCISCO 24 ST LOUIS 10
Dallas –3 DENVER 42.5
Dallas bounced back last week with a big win over Carolina. They out gained Carolina 6.7yppl to 5.2yppl, including out rushing them 6.6ypr to 4.6ypr and out passing them 6.8yps to 5.5yps. They also benefited from a plus three in turnovers. Denver rolled again over hapless Oakland. They out gained the Raiders 5.5yppl to 2.9yppl, including out rushing them 4.8ypr to 4.1ypr and out passing them 6.8yps to 1.8yps. Dallas averages 6.8ypr against 5.5ypr and 7.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 7.3yppl against 5.8yppl. They have been extremely good on offense. On defense, just the opposite. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 5.9yps and 6.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver has been solid as well, averaging 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.7yppl. On defense they allow just 3.3ypr against 3.8ypr, 4.3yps against 4.7yps and 3.9yppl against 4.3yppl. Denver has played a couple of stiffs in Cleveland and Oakland and an average to better than average Cincinnati team. Dallas lost to the Giants and their two wins are against winless teams Tampa Bay and Carolina so it’s not like they have played a tough schedule either. Denver qualifies in a home dog situation, which is 41-13-1. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 77-31-3. Numbers favor Denver by seven points and predict about 37 points. There are plenty of questions about how good Denver is this year. This game will go a long way to determining if they are for real or not. They may get blown out against a physical team like Dallas but the situation calls for taking them here – poor defense laying points on the road, value and situations favoring the home dog. DENVER 21 DALLAS 17
PITTSBURGH –6 San Diego 43
Steelers lost last week at Cincinnati but out gained the Bengal’s 6.2yppl to 4.7yppl. They out passed Cincinnati 8.5yps to 4.4yps but were out rushed 5.3ypr to 3.6ypr. SD defeated Miami 23-13 and out gained them 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl. They out passed Miami 8.2yps to 4.4yps but were out rushed 4.8ypr to 2.5ypr. The Steelers average 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is very good again, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. SD has been horrible rushing the ball, gaining just 2.8ypr against 3.5ypr but they are averaging 7.8yps against 7.0yps for a total of 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense, they allow 5.8yps against 5.6yps and 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 64-18-4, including being 41-4-3 since 1995. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 449-289-21. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 8 points. They also predict about 40 points. In the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh is now 26-0 SU during the regular season when they are favored by five points or more at home. Twenty of those twenty-six games produced wins of nine points or more. They are 18-7-1 ATS during that span. In other words, when they are supposed to win, they do so in convincing fashion. SD is banged up and now must go on the road. The last time they were on the road they were lucky to escape Oakland with a win. They lost at home to Baltimore and defeated a winless Miami team. Pittsburgh may be just 1-2 but their two losses have been last second losses. They could very easily be 3-0. I see their pressure on defense making the difference here and their ability to throw the ball downfield allowing them to put points on the board. The situations are too strong to ignore. PITTSBURGH 27 SAN DIEGO 13
MINNESOTA –3.5 Green Bay 45
Green Bay bounced back last week like I thought they would to defeat an inferior opponent. They out gained the Rams 6.5yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing the Rams 10.0yps to 5.2yps. They were out rushed 4.5ypr to 4.1ypr. Minnesota had the miracle pass from Favre to defeat SF last week. They out gained the 49ers 5.0yppl to 4.7yppl, including out rushing them 3.5ypr to 2.2ypr. They were out passed by a weak SF passing game 7.2yps to 5.9yps. The Packers are average running the ball, gaining 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr and below average throwing the ball, averaging just 6.1yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 3.9ypr so they are also average defending the rush. They do allow 6.3yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. Minnesota averages 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.6yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.7yppl. The defense has not been as good as past years, allowing just 3.5ypr against 3.7ypr but 5.1yps against 4.9yps and 4.4yppl against 4.4yppl, making them just average on defense. Minnesota qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 178-94-13, 146-76-7 and 449-289-21. Numbers favor Minnesota by 9.5 points and predict 59 points. I was very surprised by the total points predicted for this game. Too many question marks for me in this game to play the over. The Packers would be an above average passing team if they didn’t allow so many sacks but that is a troubled spot for them so far this year. GB has played the last six games here and either won outright or lost by three points or less. This series has been very competitive here. But, this is a bad match-up for GB. They are banged up on the offensive line – a line that hasn’t been able to protect the qb. They are banged up at the safety position, forcing them to use a linebacker there. Brandon Chillar was beaten twice last week for touchdowns trying to defend Ram players. The one thing GB has going for them is they played in a dome last week at St. Louis and faced a tough running back in Stephen Jackson, who they allowed to rush for a 117 yards last week (149 total for the Rams). So, they should be prepared for that this week but this week the running back and team are better than what they faced last week. GB needs to stop Adrian Peterson to have a chance in this game. I’m not sure they can do that. They also need to protect Aaron Rodgers to have a chance. I’m not sure they can do that. Situations, value, the fact Minnesota roughed up Rodgers last year here (Viking mistakes kept Green Bay in the game) and a short number make Minnesota the obvious choice here. I bleed Green and Gold so this is tough to do but Minnesota is the only choice. MINNESOTA 30 GREEN BAY 17
Larry Ness
Insider - Titans
25*GOY - Dolphins
15* - NE Over
20*Perfect Storm - Cowboys
Brandon Lang
50 DIME - Saints -7
HalfBets
10* Patriots -1 GOW
Jefferson Sports
Tennessee -2.5 -120
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raiders/Texans Over 41
Oakland finally gets their offense going against the worst defense in the NFL this week. But Houston puts up another big number on the scoreboard as well as this one flies OVER the total by the end of the 3rd quarter. Houston has scored 58 points in their last 2 games combined, but they've given up over 24 points in all 3 games, including 31 to both Jacksonville and Tennessee the last two weeks. The Titans and Jaguars are two teams not known for having explosive offenses, kind of like Oakland. The Raiders scored 27 points on Houston last year in a 27-16 home win in December. Don't expect this Raiders' defense to limit Houston to only 16 points this time around, but they should still be able to match their offensive output of 27 points. The Raiders rushed for 139 yards and passed for 223 more in last year's meeting. Even JaMarcus Russell will look like Peyton Manning against his putrid Texans' defense. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 17-4 in the Texans' last 21 games following a loss overall. The OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders' last 10 games during Week 4. After three straight weeks of lackluster offensive play from Oakland, this is their breakout game offensively. Take the OVER 41 points here. (Obviously big action is pouring in on the OVER and for good reason, so take the OVER all the way up to 44 as a 6* Play, 44.5 and higher is a 5* Play)
5* Ravens/Pats AFC "Big Game" BLOOD BATH on New England Patriots -1
Tom Brady now has three games under his belt, and the Patriots are starting to look like the old New England team that won 3 Super Bowls. New England won 26-10 at home against a very good Atlanta team last week, and they did it with sound defense and a solid running game with not much needed from Brady. He still managed to throw for 277 yards, but it was the 168 rushing yards led by 100-plus from veteran Fred Taylor that really made this offense tough to tame. The Pats held Michael Turner and the ground game to only 58 yards on 17 carries. New England's defense is giving up just 16.7 points per game this season and 88 rushing yards per contest. Baltimore has played a very easy schedule, taking care of the Browns and Chiefs and escaping with a win over San Diego. This is easily their toughest test this season, and they will fail. The Patriots are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Pats are finding their way right now, and Baltimore isn't about to get in their way Sunday. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
4* NFL Sunday "SLEEPER" on Bengals/Browns Over 38
Odds makers are sleeping on this Cleveland offense after a terrible start to the season. Insert Derek Anderson. This is just the move that head coach Eric Mangini needed to make after Brady Quinn simply didn't get the job done through 3 games. Anderson will give this Cleveland offense a spark, and we have no doubt this will be by far their best offensive output of they year. Cincinnati could be in a letdown spot defensively after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, which will also help Cleveland's offense get going. But the Bengals are the team that will put up the majority of the points against a Browns' defense that is giving up a ridiculous 31.7 points per game. You can chalk up Cincinnati for 28 or more points in this one, and Cleveland will score enough points to get the OVER. Carson Palmer has led this Cincinnati offense to 27.0 points per game over their last 2 games, coming against good Pittsburgh and Green Bay defenses. Cincinnati is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog since 1992. The average score in these games is Bengals 24.4 and their opponents 28.5 for nearly 53 points per contest. Cincinnati's defense will take a step back here, but their offense will pick up the slack. Take the OVER 38 points.
Don Wallace Sports
Kansas City +8.5