Bob Valentino
30 DIME: STEELERS
Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
Oakland (+9) 23 HOUSTON 24
I can't think of many times that I've seen worse quarterbacking from an NFL quarterback than what I've seen from the Raiders' JaMarcus Russell the last two weeks. Russell has had troubles completing even short passes and has managed just 141 pass yards at 2.8 yards per pass play against the Chiefs and Broncos. The Raiders actually beat the Chiefs when Russell suddenly got his act together to lead a game winning touchdown drive and he looked pretty good against the Chargers in week 1 (6.8 yppp including a beautiful 4th down bomb for a TD). Russell is not as bad as he's been the last two weeks, but his lifetime 52% completion percentage (41% this year) and 5.2 yppp average are still among the worst among NFL starters (especially now that Brady Quinn is out of a job in Cleveland). However, despite how poorly Russell has played so far this season the math using this year's games only would favor Houston by just 8 points in this game and it's pretty reasonable to think that Russell won't be as bad going forward as he's been so far this season. Russell should certainly have better numbers today against a bad Houston secondary that's given up 7.3 yppp to a collection of sub-par quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average team. More importantly, Russell probably won't have to do much for the Raiders to move the ball since their collection of talented backs should have an easy time running against a Texans' defensive front that has allowed an average of 208 rushing yards at 6.6 ypr in their first 3 games. Russell is much better when he's got a running attack to rely on (his only good game against San Diego was also the only game in which the Raiders ran the ball well). Overall, the Raiders have been 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while Houston's defense has been 1.7 yppl worse than average (7.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) - so the Raiders actually have an advantage when they have the ball.
Houston's offense also has an advantage, as the Texans have averaged a healthy 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average attack. That unit is going up against a solid Raiders' defense that has been average on the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl) and has the league's best shutdown cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha to slow down perhaps the league's best receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson was held to just 2 catches for 19 yards by Asomugha in last season's 27-16 Raiders' upset win as a 7 point dog, he didn't play in the 2007 meeting, and was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards by Oakland's All-Pro corner in the 2006 game. Slowing down Johnson again would give the Raiders a good chance to win this game and they are certainly capable of keeping this game competitive.
My ratings favor Houston by just 6 1/2 points in this game and as I mentioned earlier the math would favor the Texans by only 8 points using this year's games only (i.e. if Russell continues to play below his normal poor standards). In addition to the line value the Raiders apply to a very strong 72-18-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. I'll take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10.
NFL Strong Opinions
Buffalo (-2.0) 23 MIAMI 16
My 2-Star play on Miami Under 7 1/2 wins is looking pretty good so far and the Dolphins now are without starting quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington wasn't having a good season (69% completions, but just 5.6 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per pass play), but new starter Chad Henne has completed only 55% of his 31 career passes for just 5.1 ypa. Miami has been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.2 yppl and I still don't think that perception has caught up with reality concerning the Dolphins. Buffalo is a decent team that has averaged 5.4 yppl and allowed 5.5 yppl against a slightly tougher than average schedule and they beat up on the only bad team they faced - a 33-20 win over Tampa Bay. My ratings favor Buffalo by 3 points in this game and the Bills apply to a solid 176-95-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less
San Diego (+6.5) 21 PITTSBURGH 22
Pittsburgh is not as good as they were last season, as the defense hasn't been as good without star S Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are still better than average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, but the Chargers have an attack that is 0.4 yppl better than average and they should have decent success in this game even if LaDanian Tomlinson is out again this week. Pittsburgh's offense has been surprisingly good so far, averaging 5.5 yppl against 3 good defensive teams (Tennessee, Chicago, and Cincy) and the Chargers are just mediocre defensively. The possible absence of Shawne Merriman (questionable with a groin injury) doesn't concern me given that Merriman's level of play is average at best so far this season (just 6 tackles with zero sacks and zero passes broken up). My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, but assuming that the Steelers are bound to play well because they're motivated by their 1-2 record is simply wrong. In fact, week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. That includes a 3-16-1 ATS mark if the home favorite was a 10-6 or better the previous season. San Diego has as much talent as any team in the AFC and the Chargers tend to play their best when they need to, which explains why they are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. I'll consider San Diego a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more
Ethan Law
All 2% plays
Tampa Over
Kansas City
Seattle
The Booooj
50 units on NY Giants -9
20 units on Indianapolis -10
5 units on Miami +1
10 units on Pittsburgh -6
David Banks
Bengals - Pts.
Ravens + Pts.
Jets +pts.
Cowboys - Pts.
Dolphins Pk
NBC Parlay
Chargers + Pts.
Over 42.5
Seabass
100 Dal
50 Ten
50 Clev
50 Was
50 Det
30 Ten Over
100 Steam Seattle
20 Tease NYG, St L Under
Anthony Redd
25 Dime Ravens
25 Dime Lions
25 Dime Bengals
RocketmanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Oakland @ Houston
Play: 3* Oakland +9
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Both teams come in with identical 1-2 records on the season. Oakland won their only road game this year 13-10 at Kansas City. Houston is 0-2 at home losing to the NY Jets and Jacksonville. Houston defense is allowing 28.7 points per game overall and 27.5 points per game at home this season. I'm expecting Oakland to run the ball a lot here today which should eat up the clock and that always is good for a huge dog. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll play Oakland for 3 units today!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Buffalo vs. Miami
Play: 3* Miami PK
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Buffalo is 1-2 on the season while Miami comes in with an 0-3 record so far this year. Miami has played some really good teams though so far in Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Diego. Now they face a weaker Buffalo opponent. Buffalo is allowing 25 points per game on the road this year. Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC East. Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We'll play Miami for 3 units today!
3* TENN
3* CLEVELAND
The King MakerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Adding
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
10* New York Giants -8.5
Teddy June
Miami
Detroit
Mean Green Profit Machine
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
5% Ravens +1.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
2% Steelers -6
Bob BalfeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Mets -135 over Astros
Figueroa/Lopez
System Sports Guaranteed Selections
19-3 ATS NFL SYSTEM WINNER
San Diego +7
Kelso
50 Units - Cincinnati
20 Units San Diego
20 Units San Diego/Pitt Under
10 Unit Parlay SD & Under
Chairman
15 Units Cowboys -3
4 Units Texans -9
5 Units Ravens +1.5
3 Units Jets +7.5
Pure Lock
New Orleans