Wunderdog
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Play: Seattle Seahawks +10
New York is off to a seemingly hot 3-1 start, but lots of questions remain as to just how good they are. They have three wins vs. teams that are collectively just 2-10 on the season and there's a strong argument that they should have lost last week. To me, they still have a lot to prove. The Seahawks fall into the category of a soft team, but have covered two straight and have looked much better than they did a year ago in those two games. The Giants’ strength was supposed to be their ground game, but it has sputtered through the first quarter of the season, generating just 350 yards on 107 carries (just 3.27 yards per tote). ANd, on defense, this team is giving up over 360 yards per game. The Seattle offense scored almost as many points a week ago as they did in the first three and should have enough to hang tough with the G-Men. I would expect the Giants to focus on their ground attack to eat up the clock vs. trying to score a ton. The Giants have caved as home chalk recently, going just 4-9 ATS in their last 13. They have also lost six striaght against the number at home vs. a team with a losing road record. The Giants are not ready for a double-digit chalk role. Take the Seahawks and the points.
Chip Chirimbes
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers +7
From what I've seen this Cam Newton is the 'real deal,' and if he is he will be able to exploit the Saints defense as he already averages 346 yards per game. Steve Smith has returned to form and is his favorite target. Carolina has 'covered' three of the last four meetings and Saints are 3-7 as road favorites. This game is on natural grass and that will slow New Orleans a bit and Cats are a 'take' here at home.
EA Sports Consultants
50* Bears +5
25* Bengals +1
25* Steelers -3
25* Falcons +5.5
Pointwise Phones
3* Lions, Giants, Bengals, Chargers, Bucs
2* Bears / Lions Over
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 16-11 +11.70%
3% MINNESOTA -3
3% OAKLAND +6
3% NY JETS +8 Must get at least +7.5
3% DENVER +4
3% ATLANTA +6
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 23.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.5
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.6
INDIANAPOLIS –2 Kansas City 38.5
Indy qualifies in a couple of week five situations, which are 33-7-1 and 44-9-2 that plays on teams who are desperate for a win. Numbers favor Indy by six points and predict about 41 points. Colts are banged up on both the offensive line and the defensive line. Curtis Painter will get the start in this game for Indy. Indy is just too banged up for me to play them in this game. INDIANAPOLIS 24 KANSAS CITY 17
MINNESOTA –3 Arizona 45.5
Minnesota qualifies in a week five situation, which is 33-7-1. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 497-318-22 and 160-86-8. Numbers favor Minnesota by three points and predict about 47 points. Arizona has now allowed at least 20 points in 12 of their last 14 road games, with one of those games allowing 19 points to an anemic Carolina offense last year. In those same 14 games, they failed to score 20 points in 10 of those games. Minnesota has scored at least 20 points in both home games this year. They shouldn’t have any problems doing that against a below average Arizona defense this week. The Vikings are a little banged up and may play without Antoine Winfield in this game. MINNESOTA 30 ARIZONA 20
Philadelphia –2.5 BUFFALO 50
Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 82-36-3. Numbers favor Buffalo by 5.5 points and predict about 56 points. Philly continues to be really banged up. They will play without Trent Cole and Jason Peters on the defensive line. Meanwhile, for the Bills, Demetrius Bell is out at LT. Buffalo has tallied almost 7.0yppl in each of their home games and scored at least 34 points in those games. They totaled 65 points in the game against NE, who sports a defense just a little worse than the Philly defense. BUFFALO 31 PHILADELPHIA 24
HOUSTON –6 Oakland 48
Oakland qualifies in my turnover table, which is 426-277-18. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 294-202-23. Numbers favor Houston by 6.5 points and predict about 48 points. This line is simply too high for two teams so equal to each other. HOUSTON 24 OAKLAND 23
New Orleans –6.5 CAROLINA 51.5
I have situations going both ways in this game. Numbers favor NO by 3.5 points and predict about 56 points. The Saints have played two good offenses this year and allowed 42 points to GB and 33 points to Houston. Meanwhile, Carolina has been very good on offense but topped 23 points just once this year, which was last week. The Saints have scored at least 30 points in three of their four games. Carolina is best at throwing the ball but that plays right into what NO defends best, which is the pass. Meanwhile, NO throws the ball very well but Carolina does not defend the pass very well. NEW ORLEANS 31 CAROLINA 24
JACKSONVILLE –2 Cincinnati 37
I have situations going both ways in this game. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 3.5 points and predict about 30 points. When Cincinnati goes on the road and plays teams more equal to their talent, they play competitive games. In the last few years, when they have been road dogs of three or less (or favorites) they have played five games and either won those games or lost by three or less. Jacksonville’s lone win this year was by two points and they haven’t scored more than 10 points in three of their games (no more than 16 overall). Knowing Cincinnati plays solid defense and can score some points (at least 22 points in three of their four games), it will be difficult for Jacksonville to win this game. I’ll respect the situations enough to stay off this game but have to lean towards Cincinnati. CINCINNATI 17 JACKSONVILLE 13
PITTSBURGH –3 Tennessee 39.5
Pittsburgh qualifies in my turnover table, which is 426-277-18. Numbers favor Tennessee by two points and predict about 41 points. Pittsburgh is really banged up in this game. I would like to play the Steelers because of the situation, even though the value isn’t there, but not sure I can. I may come back on Saturday after I have had a little more time to look at this game. PITTSBURGH 24 TENNESSEE 17
NY GIANTS –9.5 Seattle 43.5
Seattle qualifies in my turnover table, which is 426-277-18. They also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 148-87-5. Numbers favor the Giants by 12 points and predict about 40 points. Seattle has played their last two games at home but they have now allowed at least 24 points on the road in each of their last six road games, allowing at least 33 points in five of those six games. Meanwhile, they have topped 21 points only once in those same six games (scoring 24 points). That’s not a great recipe for ATS wins, knowing they give up a lot of points on the road and don’t score a lot. The Giants have scored at least 28 points in three straight games. Their saving grace may be the fact they are getting so many points in this game. The Giants are also 0-5 ATS their last five games laying more than seven points at home. If I could get 13 or 14 points in this game I would take a shot with Seattle but the line is a little too thin for me. NY GIANTS 26 SEATTLE 17
SAN FRANCISCO –3 Tampa Bay 41.5
TB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 294-202-23. Numbers favor SF by 3.5 points and predict about 43 points. The biggest difference in this game is the defense of TB, which is much worse than the SF defense. But, both of these teams have played competitive games this year and TB won here last year 21-0 as 3.5 point dogs. TB has now won 10 consecutive games ATS as road dogs and is 13-2 ATS as a road dog in Raheem Morris last 15 road games as dogs. TAMPA BAY 24 SAN FRANCISCO 21
NEW ENGLAND –8 NY Jets 49
I have situations going both ways in this game. Numbers favor NE by six points and predict about 55 points. NE has now scored at least 30 points in 12 straight regular season games. While they only allowed 21 points in their lone home game of the season against SD, they did that only because SD turned the ball over multiple times and also on downs deep in NE territory. The Jets have allowed 34 points in each of their road games this year although last week was due more to turnovers than their defense. NEW ENGLAND 30 NY JETS 27
San Diego –4 DENVER 47.5
Denver qualifies in week five situations, which are 33-7-1 and 44-9-2. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 426-277-18. Numbers favor SD by just one point and predict about 40 points. These two teams aren’t that far apart in the stats. They are almost equal on both offense and defense, with SD being slightly better on both sides. But, Denver is at home and finally getting healthy as well. Denver has struggled here lately against SD, losing four of the last five games. Three of those five games have totaled at least 61 points and Denver has allowed SD to score at least 32 points in each of those games. Two almost equal teams with the home team a dog and healthier than they have been in a few weeks. DENVER 22 SAN DIEGO 17
Green Bay –6 ATLANTA 53.5
Atlanta qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 47-16-1. Numbers favor GB by six points and predict about 55 points. The Packers lost their regular season game here last year 20-17 but dominated that game from the line of scrimmage. A turnover at the goal line really turned that game around. In the playoffs GB got revenge with a huge 48-21 victory. Atlanta has been very good at home under Mike Smith. With the exception of a 34-7 home defeat to Philadelphia in 2009 (Matt Ryan didn’t play that game), Atlanta has never lost a home game under Smith by more than four points other than the GB loss last year. They are 3-0 ATS as a home dog under Smith if you don’t count the Philadelphia game they played without Ryan. Atlanta has only played one game at home this year, which was a win over Philadelphia, although a turnover around the goal line changed that game drastically for Philadelphia as well, just like the GB game last year. GB can score with the best of them and Atlanta has some potential to do the same but haven’t displayed it yet this year. They are also facing a GB defense that is a little banged up and well below average so far this year. I expect them to keep this game close. GREEN BAY 31 ATLANTA 30
DETROIT –5 Chicago 47.5
Chicago qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 294-202-23. Numbers favor Detroit by 10 points and predict about 46 points. I originally liked Chicago in this game but the numbers suggest there is now value on Detroit in this game. Detroit has lost three in a row at home to Chicago and five of the last six games. They have allowed the Bears to score at least 24 points in five straight games played here. Situation goes one way and the value goes the other way. Probably a good game to pass. DETROIT 26 CHICAGO 20
KB Hoops
7* Vikings -3
5* Chiefs +2
5* Packers -5.5
4* Tampa Bay +3
GoldSheet
Buffalo by 7 over Philly
Det by 17 over Chic
NYG/Sea Over
PointWise
SD over Den Rating 2
Det over Chic Rating 3
TB over SF Rating 4
Cinci over J'village Rating 5
GB over Atl Rating 5
Green Sheet
5 NYJ
4 GB
3ZONA
2 PHIL
1 Cinci
Power Plays
4* NYG 35 SEA 15
Power Sweep
4* NO
3* Pitt
2* NE
CKO
10* NY GIANTS 38 SEATTLE 16
Joseph D'Amico
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: New Orleans Saints -6.5
The Saints have the #2 ranked offense, while the Panthers own the #3 "O" in the NFL. I will admit, that I didn't think that Cam Newton would make such a "smooth" transition thus far. But, the rookie has Carolina averaging 334.8 passing YPG and has resurrected WR Steve Smith (avg. 22.1 YPR). The problem is that the Panthers are posting just 22.2 PPG for all those yards gained they aren't scoring the points. New Orleans DC, Gregg Williams is famous for implementing schemes to bewilder opposing QBs. Drew Brees and the high-flying offense is averaging 31.8 PPG. The Saints come into the division rivalry matchup, winning and covering 3 straight. I don't foresee that the Panthers DL can get enough pressure on Brees. If they go shot-for-shot, Brees has more of an arsenal and a lot more experience. The road team is 20-8 ATS the L28 meetings. Lay the points under the TD. Take New Orleans.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Milwaukee (-145) over St. Louis (Top MLB Play)
Zack Greinke has won 16 consecutive home games and he has also won 21 of the last 24 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher. Zack Greinke has won 8 of the last 9 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has also won 5 of the last 6 games when pitching on a Sunday.
NHL Hockey Sunday
Play Edmonton (+125) over Pittsburgh (Top NHL Play)
Totals 4U
Top Plays
Houston OVER
Atl UNDER
Regular Plays
KC UNDER
NO OVER
Pitt UNDER
NYG UNDER
TB UNDER
NYJ OVER
SD OVER
Platinum Plays
Premier Picks (Top)
Pit
NYJets
500K
Minn
400K
Atlanta
Atl OVER
Regular Plays
Phil
Houston
Houston OVER
NO OVER
TB
TB UNDER
SD
Ben Burns
10* Vikings -1
10* Seahawks/Giants Under 43.5
10* Falcons +5
9 Jaguars-1
Dr Bob
2* PITTSBURGH (-3.0) 26 Tennessee 16
Pittsburgh is just 2-2 and appears to be struggling but the Steelers are actually playing well and suffering from negative variance in turnovers. The Steelers have out-gained their opponents 360 yards at 5.8 yppl to 277 yards at 4.9 yppl but they are -2.0 in point differential because of a league worst -10 in turnover margin. Tennessee has actually been better than the Steelers from the line of scrimmage this season, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average on offense (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and 0.9 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Titans are not going to be as good offensively without injured big play receiver Kenny Britt, who caught passes for 290 yards on 26 balls thrown to him (11.2 ypa). The other starting wide receiver Nate Washington is having a very good season with 320 yards on 31 passes intended for him, but now he’ll have to deal with double-teams and he managed just 2 catches last week without Britt taking that attention away from him. The receivers taking Britt’s place, Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins, have combined to just 104 yards on 22 passes thrown to them, so Matt Hasselbeck’s numbers will drop considerably. That didn’t show up last week in the yards per pass numbers (220 yards on 20 passes), but Hasselbeck completed just 10 of 20 passes last week and an 80 yard completion to a tight end made his performance look better statistically than it actually was. After adjusting for Britt being out for Tennessee and for star LB James Harrison being out for Pittsburgh (no adjustment for RB Mendenhall being out since he’s averaging just 3.0 ypr), my math favors Pittsburgh by just 1 ½ points. However, the Steelers apply to a very strong 57-11-2 ATS contrary indicator and a 62-27-4 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their horrible turnover margin. I’ll take Pittsburgh at -3 at -125 odds or better (I’d consider them a Strong Opinion at higher than that).
2* SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) 26 Tampa Bay 16
Tampa Bay is 3-1 and most people think they Bucs are a good team because of their 10-6 record last season. However, Tampa wasn’t anything more than average last season and the Bucs are just average this season too, if that. Tampa Bay has averaged a decent 5.6 yards per play this season but they’ve faced teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so they’re actually 0.3 yppl worse than average. The defense is even worse, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit. The 49ers are just as bad from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) and average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl). Neither quarterback is turnover prone (just 1 interception for Alex Smith in an offense that suits him and Freeman has thrown 4 interceptions but only 6 last year) and the Niners are 0.6 points better in special teams and are at home. My math model favors San Francisco by 5 points and the Niners apply to a very good 22-2-1 ATS home momentum situation. San Francisco tends to play well at home (13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 home games and 1-0-1 ATS this season) and I like the rare situation that applies to them. I’ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -120 odds or better).
2* NY Jets (+8.5) 25 NEW ENGLAND 26
I don’t understand the line on this game. Sure the Jets looked bad on Sunday night in Baltimore last week, but the Ravens are maybe the best team in the league and they have a defense that was capable of exploiting the Jets weakness in the middle of the offensive line. That weakness is gone now with All-Pro C Nick Mangold expected to return this week after missing two games and the Patriots have a horrible defense that’s given up 478 yards per game at 7.3 yards per play (to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team). With the total at 49 points and with New England favored by 9 points the odds would suggest that the Jets would score just 20 points in this game (the odds predict 29-20), but New York is averaging 25.0 points per game and the Patriots are horrible defensively, so I certainly expect more than 20 points from New York, especially with Mangold back. New England will score their share of points too, as Tom Brady and company have averaged an insane 508 yards at 7.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Overall, the Patriots have only out-gained their opponents by 30 yards per game and 0.3 yppl this season, so they’re certainly not the great team that everyone seems to think they are. The Jets are strong defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team and Rex Ryan’s defense has done a better job of any team at slowing down the Patriots’ attack. New England has averaged just 24.3 points in gong 3-4 straight up against the Jets since 2008 (24.0 points and 2-3 in the 5 games Tom Brady has played – he missed both games in 2008 with an injury). My math model favors New England by just 2 points in this game but Bill Belichick has out-played his statistical projections by an average of 2.8 points over the years (tied with Peyton Manning’s Colts for the best mark in the league), so the fair line on this game should be 5 points. In addition to the line value New York also applies to a very good 87-43-3 ATS big road underdog situation. I realize that betting against Tom Brady isn’t a wise move (he’s 99-62-4 ATS as a starting quarterback), but Brady is just 11-18 ATS as a home favorite of 9 points or more and only 2-3 ATS against the Rex Ryan Jets. I’ll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10.
2* DENVER (+4.0) 23 San Diego 19
Denver is 1-3 but the Broncos aren’t really that bad and San Diego really isn’t that good. Denver has faced a schedule of all better than average teams (yes, Cincinnati is better than average) that includes two of the teams that have played the best in the NFL so far this season (Tennessee and Green Bay). Denver’s opponents have out-scored their opponents by an average of 5.4 points and I rate the Broncos’ schedule strength at +5.9 points. The Broncos have only been out-scored by 7.5 points per game, so they’ve really only been 1.6 points below average in points while being only 0.3 yards per play worse than average – rating at 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense). San Diego, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents by just 1.5 points per game and their opponents have been out-scored by 5.9 points per game on average. San Diego is only 0.4 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl). With this game being playing Denver the Broncos are only expected to be out-played from the line of scrimmage by 0.2 yppl – although San Diego figures to run many more plays since Denver mixes in a lot of 3 and outs with some big plays. However, Denver is considerably better in special teams and my math model makes this game a pick. The Broncos also apply to a very good 65-20-6 ATS early season contrary indicator that is 27-1-1 ATS in divisional games. I’ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinions
Seattle (+9.5) 19 NY GIANTS 23
I’m not going to try to make a case for the Seahawks based on value because the line is fair (my math model favors Seattle by 9½ and my other model makes the fair line 8½ points), but the Seahawks are better offensively with star WR Sydney Rice playing the last two weeks and they averaged 7.2 yards per play in last week’s spread covering 28-30 home loss to Atlanta. Seattle is still worse than average offensively but the Seahawks have a solid defense that has given up just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. The Giants are 3-1 but they’re only average from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl). The reason for liking Seattle is a very good 70-26-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is 42-11 ATS when playing on an underdog of 7 points or more. The Seahawks also apply to a 63-25-4 ATS early season contrary angle. I’ll consider Seattle a Strong Opinion.
MINNESOTA (-2.5) 27 Arizona 19
You might find it odd that a winless team is favored but Minnesota hasn’t been that bad and the Vikes could easily be 2-2 or 3-1 on the season. Minnesota has blown second half leads in every game so far this season but they have also shown that they’re good enough to compete in every game too. The Vikings have averaged 5.4 yards per play and allowed 5.7 yppl and they rate at 0.3 yppl worse than average on both sides of the ball after adjusting for their opponents. That’s not too bad and certainly is good enough to beat a sub-par Arizona team at home. The Cardinals are pretty good offensively, averaging 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack but they’re 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and I expect the Vikings to move the ball at a good level. Arizona should also move the ball well and the line on this game is about right, but I like the Vikings on the basis of a 43-13-4 ATS week 5 contrary situation and taking a winless favorite over a .500 team is pretty contrary. Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt also generally has his team playing to the recent level of their opponent. The Cardinals are usually good against teams coming of an impressive win (18-5-1 ATS against teams off a win of 7 points or more), but Whisenhunt is just 4-19 ATS against a team coming off a straight up and spread loss. I’d play this game as a Best Bet if Minnesota’s best CB Antoine Winfield were playing but his absence will hurt the secondary and could be worth more than a point. My math still has Minnesota by 2 points in one model and by 1 ½ in another model after adjusting for Winfield being out, so the line is not too far off. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I’d take the Vikings in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
CAROLINA (+6.5) 26 New Orleans 27
The Panthers are 3-0-1 ATS this season despite a defense that’s give up 6.7 yards per play, as rookie Cam Newton has proven to be worth that #1 overall draft pick. Newton has averaged 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’s thrown 1 or fewer interceptions in 3 of the 4 games. The Panthers’ rushing attack has started to pick up now that teams have to respect the pass more and I expect Carolina to continue to be better than average offensively. New Orleans has been solid defensively, 5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team, but the Panthers have the advantage against that unit. The Saints, of course, have an even bigger advantage against Carolina’s defense, as Drew Brees and company have been 0.8 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Panthers are 1.2 yppl worse than average. I expect Carolina’s defensive rating to get better given that they aren’t likely to continue to give up as many big pass plays as they did in the first two games (the pass defense has been much better the last two weeks), but the Saints should still score plenty of points. My math model favors New Orleans by 5½ points but the Saints have out-played their projections by 1.3 points per game over coach Sean Payton’s 6 years, so a line between 6 ½ and 7 points is fair. I’m going to favor the Panthers to cover based on a very good 27-1-1 ATS subset of a 65-20-6 ATS early season contrary situation and home underdogs that average 360 or more total yards per game are 72-43-1 ATS over the years. I’ll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I’d take the Panthers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* Patriots/Jets Over
4* Minnesota
4* Packers/Falcons Over
3* Philadelphia
3* Eagles/Bills Over
Dwayne Bryant
3 Units Philadelphia -3