Executive
400 Texans
400 Patriots
The Duke's Sports
Jacksonville (+1) for 2 Units
Cincinnati is overachieving this season but not ready to crown them a road favorite yet. Jacksonville is a dangerous 9-0 ATS at home off back-to-back losses under Del Rio and they should put forth a good effort here. We realize the Bengals' defense is doing a super job; however, we'll look for the Jacksonville defense to force the Bengals' offense, behind rookie QB Dalton, into turnovers and create favorable field position for Jacksonville. The Jags' QB Gabbert should settle in at home with Maurice Jones-Drew carrying the load; in addition, a healthy Marcedes Lewis can create trouble for most secondaries. The Jags have won seven straight at home in this series and we won't jump off that trend here.
Ben Burns
10* Vikings -1
10* Seahawks/Giants Under 43.5
10* Falcons +5
9* Jaguars-1
Steelers
Eagles
Packers / Falcons Under
Brewers
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Falcons
3 Units Jets
Larry Ness
8* Las Vegas Insider - Eagles
Being the ‘brain surgeon’ that’s he’s become since ending a great career at Texas, Vince Young (a total bust in the NFL) declared Philadelphia ”the Dream Team” after he was signed by the Eagles (in reference to the team's FA acquisitions and the returning talent it had). Of course, Young is too stupid to realize how much that moniker haunted “the Boys from South Beach” in the NBA (if I have to name the team, or how that turned out, you shouldn’t be reading this!). The Eagles opened the season with a an impressive 31-13 win at St Louis (a preseason favorite by many to win the NFC West) but it’s been all downhill from there. I guess if we’d known the Rams would open 0-4 SU and ATS (minus-67 point differential), we wouldn’t have thought Philly’s Week 1 win much of a big deal. Anyway, the Eagles haven’t won since and nearly lost Vick in their Week 3 loss against the Giants to what was first diagnosed as a broken hand. However, that wasn’t the case and Vick played this past Sunday at home vs the 49ers. Vick wasn't hampered by his bruised right hand, throwing for a career-high 416 yards and two TDs while adding 75 yards rushing. The Eagles would take a 23-3 lead into the mid fourth quarter, only to lose 24-23. Philadelphia has now been outscored 36-0 in the fourth quarter of its last three games, all losses. The Eagles are the fourth team since 2000 to lose three straight games in which they led entering the 4th quarter in all of them, joining the 2006 Raiders, the 2009 Redskins, and the 2011 Vikings. The last team to lose four straight such games was the 1999 Saints. Philly can ill-afford to match the Saints. The Bills entered this season tied with the Lions for the longest active playoff droughts, as each team last made the postseason back in 1999. Like the Lions, the Bills opened this year 3-0, including wins over the Raiders (trailed by 18 points) and the Pats (trailed by 21 points) in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. For the record, no team in NFL history had such back-to-back comebacks. However, in Week 4 at Cincinnati, the Bills found that ‘the shoe was on the other foot!’ With Cincy rookie QB Andy Dalton going 7-of-20 for 116 yards (QB rating of 15.8) with two sacks and one interception (which was returned 43 yards for a TD), Buffalo opened a 17-3 lead at the half. However, the Bills would score just a FG in the second half, while Dalton finished 18-of-36 for 298 yards with a TD and two INTs. Cedric Benson ran 19 times for 104 yards, which helped take some of the pressure off the young QB. Buffalo QB Fitzpatrick has had a wonderful start to 2011 (63.4% / 9-3 ratio / 96.9 QB rating) and RB Fred Jackson (369 YR / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs) is staking his claim as a big-time performer. Johnson, Nelson and Jones make up a solid WR corps while TE Chandler already has four TD catches. That being said, the Buffalo offense has nothing on Philadelphia’s. Vick is completing 61.2% with a 91.9 QB rating while adding 228 yards rushing (7.1 YPC). RB LeSean McCoy entered Week 4 leading the NFC in rushing but had only 18 yards on nine carries. Still, he’s got 363 YR (5.5 YPC with four TDs) plus has 15 catches with two more TDs. WRs Maclin (26 catches) and Jackson (16 while averaging 20.3 YPC) give Vick plenty of options. The Eagles are getting crucified in Philly and this trip to Buffalo may be a respite. Vick is at his best playing on artificial turf and I think the line reflects an over-reaction to Philly’s 1-3 and Buffalo's 3-1 starts. The Eagles are not NEARLY that bad and the Bills, not NEARLY that good. Fundamentally, I ‘LOVE’ the Eagles and I’ll add these technical situations to support my position. Philly head coach Andy Reid is 16-8 ATS on the road after a SU home loss and teams which have just gained 500-plus yards while losing the previous game (Eagles had 513 vs the 49ers last week), are 15-6 ATS on the road since 1997!
10* SD/Den Over
The Chargers led the NFL in total offense at 395.6 YPG and were second in points cored (27.6 PPG) in 2010. They also ranked first in total defense (271.6 YPG) but finished just 10th in points allowed (20.1 PPG). Special team gaffes, a poor turnover margin (minus-6) and crucial mistakes caused this extremely talented team to go just 9-7 and miss the postseason after winning four straight AFC West titles. The Chargers lost SEVEN games outright when favored in 2010, as the team was an underdog just once all season, when it routed Indy 36-14 on the road, as 2 1/2-point underdogs. Despite their high-powered offense, the Chargers had struggled out of the gate in each of their first four seasons under coach Norv Turner but while things have been far from perfect in 2011, San Diego’s 3-1 start is the team’s best since 2006. Moving the ball consistently hasn't been an issue for a Chargers team averaging 423.5 yards a game (7th) but getting into the end zone, has. The Chargers are scoring a modest 22.8 PPG (15th) and at least part of the problem is that TE Gates, after opening with eight catches in Week 1, was ineffective vs the Pats in Week 2 (injury problems began again) and then has missed each of the last two weeks (will miss here). However, expect points from San Diego in this game. QB Philip Rivers is coming off another excellent year, having completed 66.0 percent for 4,710 yards with 30 TDs and just 13 INTS and a 101.8 QB rating in 2010. That’s marked his third straight 4,000-plus season, never completing less than 65.0 percent, never having a QB rating below 100.0 and owning a 92-33 TD-to-INT ratio.He’s completing 68.2 percent this season after four games, averaging 321.5 YPG (on pace for over 5,000 yards!). RB Matthews did little in Week 1 but he’s averaged 89.5 YPG rushing the last two games and 5.0 YPC his last three. He’s also caught 19 passes with fellow RB Tolbert topping that with a team-high 25 receptions. QB Kyle Orton remains the starting QB but he seemingly draws most of the wrath from Denver fans (city loves Tebow) for the team's slide. The record will show that Orton and the Broncos are 1-3 to open 2011 and that the Broncos are 4-13 in Orton’s past 17 starts. Denver is 6-21 with Orton as its QB since opening the 2009 season 6-0. However, let me add that Denver’s defense allowed just 315.0 YPG in 2009 (7th) and a respectable 20.3 PPG (team was 8-8). That’s quite a bit better than last year, when Denver ranked last in yards allowed (390.8) and points allowed (29.4). Things are not much better this year on defense either (they were supposed to be!), with Denver allowing 377.8 YPG and 27.8 PPG (ranks 29th). Rivers will be throwing against a pass D which allows 69.6 percent completions (9 TDs / just 2 INTs) and an opposing QB rating of 110.7 (both figures are the highest of any NFL team). No reason for San Diego NOT score here. As for Orton, his two home games have been solid, throwing for 249.5 YPG with three TDs and just one INT (5-5 ratio in two road games). He’ll be up against a San Diego pass D which like Denver’s, allows a high completion percentage (68.8) but much fewer yards (196 to 275, on average). McGahee, signed as a short yardage and goal line back, is now the starter, topping 100 yards in TWO of Denver’s last three games. The pressure is on Orton and he KNOWS he needs to play well. He also knows he surely can’t count on his defense against Rivers and Co. (even minus Gates), so he’ll have to try to “trade scores.” Note that Denver home games were 6-2 in favor of the over last year, with the average game score coming in at 57.1 PPG. While the team's two home games this year are a 23-20 loss to Oakland and a 24-22 win over Cincy (not especially high scores), both did ‘sneak over,’ giving Denver an 8-2 run in favor of the over its last 10 home games. This one could easily reach 60 points, not uncommon in the early part of this 2011 season.
Asa 4-oak, 3- phil, cinn
ben burns 9 10- minn, giants under, atl, jax
big money 2 hou
blazer 4- giants, sd
carolina sports 4- tb, 3- sd
harry bondi 7 6- gom: Oak, 3- atl, tb
inside info 3- ariz, 2- phil
joe d 25-ne
neri 3- minn, pitt, sf, den
preferred picks 4 4-atl, 3- jets
underdog 1 tb
wildcat 10-caro, 7- cinn, 5- atl over
million club 2-kc
Jim Feist
Dog Game of the Month
Falcons
Sports Bank
400 Atlanta
Underdog
Tampa +3
Chip Chirimbes
Best Bet - Broncos
Bailout - Falcons
Big Al
Div GOM - Broncos
Erin Rynning
15* Falcons
Mike Lineback
Teaser: Jets & Over
The Consensus Pick
Broncos +3.5
Rob Veno
Total of Month: Chargers / Broncos Over