Chip Chirimbes
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -5½
One of the NFL's more embarrassing moment came when not only did Seattle make the playoffs but they even upset the reining Super Bowl Champion Saints in the opening round at home. This game will make two coaching rivals who have a history from their days in the PAC-10 as Stanford a 40½ underdogs under Jim Harbaugh upset Pete Carroll's USC 24-23 and then two years later beating the Trojans 55-21. Harbaugh has Carroll's number and a home field advantage.
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 0-0
3% CHICAGO +2.5
3% HOUSTON –8.5 No higher than –9.5
3% ST LOUIS +4
3% WASHINGTON +3
3% NY JETS –5.5 No higher than –5.5
3% DENVER –3 No higher than -3
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below (2010).
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
GREEN BAY –4 New Orleans 47.5
NO took a step back last year running the ball, averaging just 4.0ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr. They threw the ball better than average, gaining 6.5yps against teams allowing just 6.1yps. Overall on offense, they averaged 5.6yppl against teams giving up 5.3yppl. They were below average on defense allowing 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl.
GB struggled to run the ball without Ryan Grant last year, averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr but they threw the ball exceptionally well, gaining 7.1yps against teams allowing just 6.2yps. Overall on offense they gained 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr but were terrific against the pass, allowing just 5.4yps against 6.1yps and allowing 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situation on this game. Since the NFL went to the format of having the SB champ host the Thursday night kick off game, the SB champ is now 5-1-1.
The Packers have the better defense by far and away in this game. It’s hard to gauge if preseason results can mean anything but NO was horrible defending the run in the preseason, allowing 5.0ypr. Even if we assume the offenses are equal in this game and I would rate the Packers a little better than NO, there is a huge difference in the defenses. NO will also miss DE Will Smith, who is serving the first of his two game suspension. NO will also be without WR Lance Moore in this game.
GB gets back Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant, who they were without from the 5th and 1st week of the season last year. The numbers on offense for GB were already better without those two players. At home GB is good for 24-30 points a game. If NO can score 20 or more they have a chance to cover. If they can’t they will not cover this game. GB scored 28 or more in six of their eight home games last year. They scored only 20 against Miami but were banged up in that game and the Bears, who have defended them decently the last few years, allowed just 10 points.
It’s hard to say how good the Saints are or were last year. They were beaten pretty badly at Seattle in the playoffs 41-36 by a bad Seahawks team. NO didn’t play very good competition on the road last year. They were beaten 30-24 at Baltimore and defeated Atlanta 17-14. Other than that, they didn’t face a playoff team on the road last year. They allowed 22 points at SF, 30 at Arizona, 27 at Dallas, 30 at Cincinnati, 30 at Baltimore and 41 at Seattle in the playoffs. Their only decent performances on the road were allowing six points at TB but TB didn’t have two of their best three skill players – Blount and Benn. They allowed three points at Carolina, which doesn’t count and they allowed only 14 at Atlanta, which was a solid performance. But, they allowed 27 to Atlanta earlier in the year.
I don’t see how NO can hold GB to less than 27 points in this game unless they get some key turnovers. Can they score 24 or so to at least cover? It’s possible but I would lean to the team with the better defense by far and probably the better offense as well. Numbers favor GB by six points and predict 46 points. GREEN BAY 27 NEW ORLEANS 20
BALTIMORE –1.5 Pittsburgh 36
Pittsburgh averaged 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr last year. They were very good throwing the ball, averaging 7.0yps against 6.1yps. Overall they averaged 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed 3.0ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.4yps against 6.0yps. Overall they allowed 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
Baltimore averaged just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr and 6.3yps against 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 2 points and predict about 39 points.
Baltimore has lost two of the last three years at home against Pittsburgh and the lone win was two years ago when Roethlisberger didn’t play. And, they just about lost that game, kicking a game winning field goal in the end thanks to an interception by Dennis Dixon late in the game.
Tough game to call between two teams who always seem to play close games. Baltimore lost Kelly Gregg and Josh Wilson during the off-season but added help on the offensive line. I think Pittsburgh is the better team and will lean their way. PITTSBURGH 20 BALTIMORE 17
TAMPA BAY –2 Detroit 41
Detroit averaged 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.8yps against 6.0yps last year. Overall, they averaged 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl.
TB averaged 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allowed 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.0yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor TB by one point and predict about 46 points.
Big game for Detroit with all the hype surrounding their team this year. A loss here and there will be talk they are still the same old Lions. It’s important to note the Lions broke their long road losing streak here in TB last year in there 23-20 win. The Lions needed to upgrade their defense and did that at the linebacker spot by adding Justin Durant and Stehpen Tulloch. They still have questions in their secondary but did add Eric Wright from Cleveland. They also get Matthew Stafford back at quarterback.
Hard to say how good TB is. They won half of their games last year (five) by three points or less. And their wins weren’t exactly against the top competition. They defeated Cleveland, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Arizona, Carolina twice, San Francisco, Washington, Seattle and NO on the last day in a game that didn’t mean anything to NO. In other words, they didn’t defeat a team with a .500 record other than NO. They should continue to improve this year but may have been a little better than they really were last year because of the easy schedule. DETROIT 24 TAMPA BAY 21
Atlanta –2.5 CHICAGO 41
Atlanta was sub par rushing the ball last year, averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr. They averaged just 5.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl overall. On defense they allowed 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
Chicago struggled to rush the ball as well, gaining just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allowed just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.
Chicago qualifies in week one situations, which are 46-17-2, 61-22-3 and 46-16-5. Numbers favor Chicago by one point and predict about 41 points.
Not a lot has changed for Atlanta on defense since last year other than adding DE Ray Edwards. That was a defense that was below average last year. They will be without Corey Peters in this game but he is probably the worse of their defensive lineman anyway. Atlanta won a lot of close games last year, including three by three points or less and another four by seven points or less, making it seven wins by seven points or less. Most of their wins on the road last year were against teams below .500 (Cleveland, St. Louis, Carolina and Seattle). Against teams above .500 they were 2-2 but those two wins were by three and four points.
The Bears offense was below average last year but when combined with a match up against the Atlanta defense, this makes them an average team. Chicago was above average on defense last year and Atlanta was actually below average on offense, giving the Bears an advantage when on defense. Atlanta should be better this year with Julio Jones at the 2nd receiver spot. Chicago has plenty of problems on their offensive line but I would expect them to improve some this year (how could they be much worse). They certainly are capable of winning at home against good teams as they defeated GB (reg. season), Philadelphia and the Jets at home last year. Two of their home losses were by just three points and they were blown out by NE.
Atlanta brings an average offense, at best, on the road laying points against a better than average defense. They also bring a below average defense on the road laying points. Good situations and value in the Bears favor make this an automatic play. CHICAGO 23 ATLANTA 17
KANSAS CITY –5.5 Buffalo 39
Buffalo ran the ball well last year, averaging 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr. They averaged just 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl overall. On defense they allowed a whopping 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl.
KC ran the ball well, gaining 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they allowed 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor KC by eight points and predict about 44 points. Those numbers are based on last year’s stats and KC clearly doesn’t look nearly as good so far this year.
KC didn’t look good during preseason and they are another team, like TB, who may have overachieved last year. They defeated Buffalo at home last year 13-10 laying seven points.
Buffalo played a very tough schedule last year, playing GB, Chicago, NE twice, the Jets twice, Baltimore and Pittsburgh as well as Detroit when they were playing a little better. Nine of their games were against playoff teams when you add KC to the mix. That means they went 4-3 against the non playoff teams last year. And their first game against Miami was without Ryan Fitzpatrick so they were 4-2 with Fitzpatrick against non playoff teams.
I’m not sure KC is a playoff team this year and their only game against a playoff team last year was at Indy (not counting their playoff game against Baltimore).
I will lean with Buffalo against an overrated KC team. KANSAS CITY 23 BUFFALO 20
HOUSTON –8.5 Indianapolis 43.5
Obviously Indy’s numbers from last year won’t mean much on the offensive side of the ball without Manning but they averaged 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.6yps against 6.5yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. The Indy offense slipped last year to an average offense with Peyton. Now, they will be playing without him, which isn’t good for Indy. On defense they allowed 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl.
Houston was very good on offense last year, gaining 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, they struggled, allowing 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr but 7.4yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl.
Houston qualifies in a week one situation, which is 46-17-2. They would also qualify in a couple of other situations if this line were seven or less. Numbers favor Houston by nine points and predict about 50 points.
Here’s what we know about this series and Houston. They have scored at least 27 points five straight years in this series when playing in Houston. Last year they scored 34 points. Barring a barrage of turnovers, mark them down for at least 27 points again in this game. We also know Indy allowed at least 24 points in seven or their eight road games last year. The question is can Indy score 20 points or more to cover this large number. They should be better with Kerry Collins at quarterback than Curtis Painter but the problem is a poor offensive line for Indy. Where Manning was able to get rid of the ball before he was sacked, I don’t seen Collins doing that.
Houston was able to win last year at home in the first week by ten points and that was against Manning. All of the above analysis assumes Houston plays this game with the same team they had last year. That team was horrible on defense. When you factor in they have made major upgrades to their defense, this story gets even better. Wade Smith is now the defensive coordinator and brings a 3-4 defense, which typically gives the Colts problems. They have added Daniel Manning from the Bears and Jonathan Joseph from Cincinnati to their secondary. DeMeco Ryans comes back at LB healthy after missing week seven on last year. And, they added J.J. Watt in the draft to round out their defensive line. Last point here is Houston has constantly been drubbed by Indy over the years. They know, going into this game, this division is finally there for the taking and I expect them to let Indy know there is a new kid on the block. HOUSTON 30 INDIANAPOLIS 13
Philadelphia –4 ST LOUIS 44
Philly was electric on offense last year, especially rushing the ball with Vick, as they averaged 5.5ypr against 4.3ypr. They averaged just 6.4yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl overall. On defense they allowed 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl.
The Rams averaged just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 5.9yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl.
St. Louis qualifies in a week one situation, which is 61-22-3. Numbers favor Philly by five points and predict about 44 points.
No question Philly made major moves on the defensive side of the ball during the off-season to be able to counter the big play offenses of GB and others. They added Nnamdi Asomugha at DB, Cullen **** and Jason Babin on the DL. Those are major upgrades. They still have issues at LB and on the offensive line.
The Rams should benefit from another year of experience for Sam Bradford and Josh McDaniels is now the offensive coordinator, which should improve the passing game. On the defensive side of the ball, while not getting the type of players the Eagles landed, they upgraded their defense as well with Brady Poppinga and Ben Leber at LB and Justin Bannan on the DL. They also added SS Quintin Mikell, who happened to come from Philly. The Rams did lose Otogwe in their secondary.
The Philly defense is definitely improved this year so it’s hard to compare to last years defense but Philly allowed at least 24 points in seven of eight road games last year. The Rams were pretty good at home last year, losing only two games by more than four points and one of those games, against Atlanta, which they lost by 17 points, was much closer than the final score. They were down by 10 points and about to score and fumbled near the end zone. Atlanta took the ball back and scored putting the game out of reach. They also defeated SD at home as an 8.5 point dog.
Tough game as Philly is capable of blowing out the Rams but I like the situation and am banking this on the Rams being an improved team. ST LOUIS 23 PHILADELPHIA 21
CLEVELAND –6.5 Cincinnati 35
Cincinnati averaged 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr. They averaged 6.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. They allowed 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl.
Cleveland averaged 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allowed 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl.
I have situations that favor both teams in this game. Numbers favor Cleveland by only one point and predict about 44 points. Those numbers are based on last years stats and don’t account for Carson Palmer not playing. I would make this line closer to about three or 3.5 points without Palmer.
Cincinnati is another team who played a tough schedule last year. Against non playoff teams, they were 4-3, including a two point win at home over Cleveland and a three point loss at Cleveland. Naturally Carson Palmer is gone for the Bengal’s and they start Andy Dalton, a rookie quarterback, but I’m not laying this many points with Cleveland.
Cleveland hasn’t been favored by this many points since their last game of the season in 2007, other than laying 8.5 points last year at home against Carolina, which they only won by one point. Other than their double digit back to back wins over NO and NE last year, they didn’t defeat another team by more than three points. CLEVELAND 23 CINCINNATI 20
JACKSONVILLE –2 Tennessee 37
Tennessee averaged 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allowed 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.2yppl against 5.6yppl.
Jacksonville averaged 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allowed 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.5yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Jacksonville by two points and predict about 42 points. Without Garrard, I would probably make Jacksonville a 1.5 or one point favorite.
No opinion on this game. Tennessee has won three of the last four years here. I think Tennessee is the more physical team. TENNESSEE 24 JACKSONVILLE 20
NY Giants –3 WASHINGTON 38
The Giants ran the ball well last year averaging 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. They allowed 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl.
Washington averaged 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they allowed 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl.
Washington qualifies in a week one situation, which is 61-22-3. Numbers favor the Giants by three points and predict about 45 points.
Before we get into the current injury situations for the Giants, it’s important to note that while the Redskins were just 6-10 last year, they were actually pretty competitive in most of their games. They were blown out in four games last year but three of those were on the road. The lone home blowout was to Philly on a Monday night. Take away that loss and the three road losses, they lost six other games, all by four points or less (five by three points or less). Keep in mind they also played incredible competition in most of those games – Indy, TB, the Giants (home loss by three on the last day of the season when the Giants were trying for the final playoff spot), Minnesota before their complete debacle and Houston. They also defeated Dallas before their complete debacle and Green Bay. If nothing changed between last year and this year, that alone is enough to make a play on Washington.
Speed ahead to this year and we now also know the Giants have lost Terrell Thomas in the secondary and LB Jonathan Goff at MLB for the year. They are also without Osi Umenyiora on the DL for this game and Justin Tuck is questionable as well. They also lost Barry Cofield on their defensive line, who is now on Washington. On the offensive line, they are without multiple offensive lineman from last year.
Washington, on the other hand has upgraded significantly on the defensive side of the ball, adding Barry Cofield from the Giants, Stephan Bowen from the Cowboys, O.J. Atogwe from the Rams and CB Josh Wilson from the Ravens. All were rated as above average players last year. They also drafted LB Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue who has the chance to be a real good player. They did add Chris Chester from the Ravens to help improve a below average offensive line. But, in his second year with the Redskins, it appeared during preseason, that they are finally getting a handle on the zone blocking schemes Shanahan likes to run.
A competitive team with all their problems last year and upgraded significantly and now faces a Giants team who is really banged up on the defensive side of the ball. WASHINGTON 27 NY GIANTS 20
ARIZONA –7 Carolina 37
Carolina averaged 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, but just 4.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed just 3.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl.
Arizona wasn’t much better on offense, gaining 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr but 4.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. If the line were less than six points, Arizona would qualify in a 46-16-5 situation. Numbers favor Arizona by two points and predict about 39 points. Those numbers are based on last year’s stats. With Kolb now at quarterback for Arizona, I would make them a four point favorite.
No opinion here. Arizona lost at Carolina last year 12-19 but now have Kevin Kolb at quarterback and that makes a big difference. ARIZONA 24 CAROLINA 17
SAN FRANCISCO –5 Seattle 37.5
Seattle averaged just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl.
SF averaged 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl.
Seattle qualifies in a week one situation, which is 46-16-5. Numbers favor San Francisco by six points and predict about 43 points.
Seattle qualifies in the very good situation listed above but I cannot play them in this game. Tarvaris Jackson is the quarterback and that says all you need to know right there. They are more than likely also without Robert Gallery, Sidney Rice, David Hawthorne and Chris Clemons. SF hasn’t looked very good either. I’ll pass and wait for opportunities to play against these teams. SAN FRANCISCO 24 SEATTLE 17
SAN DIEGO –8.5 Minnesota 41.5
Minnesota averaged 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl.
SD averaged 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.8yps against 6.4yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allowed 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 11 points and predict about 40 points.
Not much of an opinion here either other than SD should be much better this year and time will tell how good or bad the Vikings will be. I lean towards SD based on the line value. SAN DIEGO 27 MINNESOTA 16
NY JETS –5.5 Dallas 41
Dallas averaged 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allowed 4.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl.
The Jets averaged 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
The Jets qualify in a week one situation, which is 46-16-5. Numbers favor the Jets by six points and predict about 45 points.
The Cowboys are banged up in the secondary with Terrance Newman out and Mike **** questionable. Add to that a new offensive line, which could actually be better than last year, and this could be a tough game for them. The Jets will definitely test the new offensive line and with their receiving options will test the weak secondary of Dallas. Add in a team that can run the ball, and play action could be a big play for the Jets on Sunday night.
Nothing more than value and a solid situation making this a play on the Jets. NY JETS 27 DALLAS 16
New England –6.5 MIAMI 46
NE averaged 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They allowed 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
Miami averaged just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allowed 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NE by just one point and predict about 48 points.
NE won here last year 41-14 but they were actually out played from the line of scrimmage. Special teams and turnovers did them in. As good as the Miami defense was last year, they have now allowed at least 21 points in their last nine home games against teams with above average offenses, including at least 27 points in seven of those nine games. Miami is also looking to throw the ball more this year, which means this game has a chance to be higher scoring than “they” think. NEW ENGLAND 30 MIAMI 23
DENVER –3 Oakland 40.5
Oakland averaged a whopping 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr last year. They averaged just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl.
Denver averaged 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl.
Denver qualifies in week one situations, which are 61-22-3 and 46-16-5. Numbers favor Oakland by two points before accounting for the situations and predict about 50 points.
Denver was blown out twice last year by Oakland, who literally ran roughshod over them in both games. The Broncos have some injuries in the interior of their defensive line but also get back their best player, Elmis Dumervil and draft choices Von Miller and Rahim Moore to improve the defense.
Oakland lost their best defensive player in Nnamdi Asomugha and they are without their best offensive player TE Zach Miller who moved on to Seattle.
This is more of a play against the Raiders and based on a Denver team which should be improved. The value isn’t there but the situations are very strong and they out weigh the value. DENVER 30 OAKLAND 20
Wunderdog
Buffalo +6
Cincinnati +6.5
Philadelphia / St. Louis Under 44
Atlanta / Chicago Under 40.5
Chicago +2.5
San Francisco -5.5
Washington +3
Giants / Washington 37.5
Pointwise Phones
3* Chargers
3* Giants
2* Rams
2* Bills
2* Panthers
2* Raiders
2* Lions / Bucs Over
Matt Fargo
10* Colts +9
9* Bills +6
Dr. Bob
2* Bears
Opinion
Dolphins
Leans
Bucs
Ravens
Bills
Texans
Freddy Wills
4* Steelers
Brad Diamond Sports
15* San Diego over Minnesota
Our initial NFL selection came up big with Green Bay on Thursday evening. Now kick back into action with a SMASHING balanced football team in the San Diego Chargers. San Diego did not hit pay dirt last year because of a 2-5 start. They went onto a great season statistically, though finishing #1 in total defense and #1 in total offense. On defense the Chargers have a great shot replicating numbers of last year, especially with former Colts safety Sanders in the starting lineup. Against the run, the defense held 10 teams to under 4 yards per carry in 2010. If the DL and LB group is to be successful this week, RB Peterson will have to be held in check as the Vikings are wholly dependent on his inside success. Critical, offensively, will be the development of QB McNabb in his first field take wearing the Purple and White. The Chargers have stated on all summer, they are determined to come up big early this season as they start with Minnesota and then follow with games against New England, KC, Miami and Denver. If the Chargers defeat the Patriots at NE in week #2 they will be 5-0 before going into a major battle with the Jets in October. Remember the Chargers lost to KC to start 2010, that will not happen here as the club is really fired up. In the last eight games San Diego is 55-25 SU. Technically, the Vikings are 1-5 ATS as road dog (0-6 ATS in this price range), while falling off ATS LY going 5-10-1 ATS overall, and 1-3 ATS LY vs. the AFC. San Diego fields 35-17-2 ATS as a HF in this price range.
Lines2Win
Lions +1.5 (3 Units) - A few days ago you could have gotten +3 but that is long gone. Stafford is back and the Lions brand of fun and gun will be hard to stop. The running game is suspect but can't see the Lions losing here.
Falcons -2 (3 Units) - The Falcons Defense is one of the better units in the league. The offense gets a boost with Julio Jones to take the pressure off of Roddy White. We just flat out hate Jay Cutler, if the Bears go down early, Cutler with lose this one for the Bears, no doubt about it.
Titans +1 (2 Units) - Heres another one where is line is tanking. The Jags waive Garrard and commit to an even worse QB in McCown, im not sure on what planet that makes sense. Maybe were missing something but The Titans get an upgrade at QB and get Chris Johnson back. With the Jags having to solely rely on the run we like the Titans here.
Teddy Covers
10* Steelers / Ravens Over
10* Texans
10* Redskins
Tim Trushel
20* Redskins
15* Cowboys
10* Teaser Chargers & Texans
Gold medal Sports
25* San Diego -8.5
10* Jacksonville +1.5
10*Indianapolis +9
10* Tampa Bay +1.5
GOLD SHEET LTS
1' UNITS PITTSBURGH +1.5
1 UNIT DETROIT +1.5
I UNIT TENNESSEE +1.5
1 UNIT WASHINGTON +3
Dom Chambers
80 Dime Arizona Cardinals
20 Dime Dallas Cowboys
20 Dime Lions / Bucs Over
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Rams
10 Dime Cowboys