Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, September 12,2010

LPW Sports Forecast

NFL Play of Week

10 Units Cleveland +3 over Tampa Bay
Buccaneers totally uninspiring as a Favorite and we think Cleveland will be considerably improved this season and we should see a revived Delhomme at QB and a Solid running game from Cleveland. TB 5-16 ats last 21 games on grass and we like Browns su here!

NFL Underdog of Week

10 Units Detroit +6.5 over Chicago
Underdog is 15-7 ats in last 22 meetings between these 2 teams and we think Stafford very well could be difference in this game as Lions finally seem to be responding to him.Depth not an issue this early in season , so we see a game between 2 fairly matched teams and points seem generous.

Other NFL Plays

5 Units Green Bay/Philadelphia Over 47.5
5 Units Cincinnati/New England Over 45.5
5 Units NY Giants -6 over Carolina

Gold Medal Club

50* Seattle
25* Carolina
25* New England
10* Tampa Bay
10* Houston

Joyce Sterling

10 STAR NFL Game of the Week

Seattle +3 vs SFO

This is Pete Carroll's debut for Seattle and Qwest Field is the loudest outdoor Stadium in the NFL.
Carroll 4-0 ATS Season openers 3-1 Straight up.
Matt Hasselback is healthy.
Seattle is Dangerous at home.

Singletary 1-2 ATS laying points on the road.
SFO is 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road favorite.

Philadelphia +3 vs Green Bay

Kolb replaces McNabb and we feel he is ready.
Reid is 4-0 Straight up in the series
Piladelphia has been favored in each of the last 4 meetings
Phila will have their defense in tact.

Contrary Game of the Week

Monday Night

NYJ vs Baltimore Under 35.5

the Jets will blitz from every angle and in every situation and they will play a lot of man schemes behind it.
Baltimore's defense consistently ranked among the league's best with Ryan in charge, and New York was the best in the NFL in his first year.

The Shark

20 Star Special - Green Bay -3

Been in love with this game since it was 1st posted month's ago at a pick. Green Bay will be one of the playoff teams this year and may be in the "big game itself". The eagles will be lucky if they win seven games. I love the 1st half(game will be over by then) and the game. Pick is Green Bay -3

DR DANNY JOYCE OFFSHORE SPORTS

DR'S "5 STAR NFL PICK OF THE DAY"

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

It's upset city and take the TEXANS to cover and win outright and party in Houston with Kubiak's first big win!

This is a game our staff of experts liked intitally and it has grown steadily into a rare 5* selection! Initially we hesitated because the Texans are famous for their slow starts 1-5 SU & ATS the last six years. Still, there is a trend here in that when playing the Colts the last three times they lost by 4,6 and 3 (after leading by 13 at halftime. The Texans know they must start winning the close ones to contend for not only the playoffs, but the division title. Head coach Gary Kubiak is an offensive genius, who has taken Matt Shwaub and made him a pro bowl QB. They had the #4 ranked offensive in the NFL last year and are 8-3 ATS the spread as a home dog, and more importantly are 5-1 ATS as a home division doggie. I'm not sure why the NFL did this 9-7 team a disservice by awarding them the #1 most difficult schedule with "7" playoff teams and a overall winning record of 51.3 %! Just getting to the playoffs will be an accomplishment, but one they are still capable of!

Now Indy is in a funk, losing all four pre-season games, has some people banged up, and Peyton Manning is still unhappy about the rule change that is speeding up the game and taking away from his time at the line of scrimmage to read and dicet the defense. Factor in that for the first time ever in his NFL career he is performing behind an offensive line that is no longer coached by vetreran OL coach Mudd who retired. Add in the injuries to center Saturday, LT Johnson, as well as dependable back-up OT/OG Ugoh and you see some game slippage here. The Texans are very aware of just how close they are to breaking this jinx, and we predict that Kubiak and his DC will rely on the ever improved defensive line to take advantage of the mismatched Indianapolis OL to keep Manning out of his rhythm, while the #4 offense does it's thing with a healthy TE Daniels back in the fold.

When you add this 4* selction to our 5* NFL "PICK OF THE DAY" it sets a dangerous precedent for opening week parlay that may be hard to follow. The Green Bay Packers travel east to play the Philadelphia Eagles. A little known fact about pre-season is that the Pack ran "14" series in their first three exhibition games with their first team and only punted three times, having only one three and out! Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 470 yards in limited action and completed 77% of his passes and scored 6 of 6 possessions. Can't get much better than that! Now that he has an established running back in Ryan Grant who has put together back to back 1200 yard rushing seasons, the pressure has been eased greatly from Rodger's arm to provide all the offense. More importantly he is playing behind a healthy and vastly improved offensive line, that got better with top draft pick of Bryan Buluga (Iowa). True the Packers have defensive secondary problems with CB Harris and SS Bigby out and Bigby replaced by a rookie. Still DC Dom Capers deliberately kept his pre-season defensive itinerary stripped down to hide the exotic blitzs he has become famous for and will hurl at first year Philly QB Kevin Kolb. The Packers have the top ranked rushing defense in the NFL and were #1 in turnover margin last year, so Kolb will have to successfully throw the football..

Coach Andy Reid woke up one morning and said I have to make some radical changes immmediately, and got rid of veteran QB Donovan McNabb (never truly appreciated here) and loved do it all purpose back Bryan Westbrook plus others. They now are banking on the inexperienced Kevin Kolb, only two starts, running back LeSean McCoy to replace Westbrook. Kolb is a rhythmn, quick, accuracy passer that in all probability will run a more traditional West Coast Offense. Meaning that there will more short routes and leaving the recievers chances to run and get yardage after the reception. This will be highly benefical to young, dynamic WR's DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles have a very fast agressive defense that they will throw at the pack, and they really attempted to strengthen it with early draft picks.

This game could turn into a shootout, but for our money we'll go with the more experienced Rodgers who was 8-4 ATS as a favorite last year. Lay the spread and take the GREEN BAY PACKERS cover and WIN!

SCOTT SPREITZER

CONFERENCE SHOCKER OF THE YEAR

10* Oakland Raiders

SIXTH SENSE

BEST BETS

YTD 0-0

3% BUFFALO +3
3% DETROIT +6.5
3% CLEVELAND +3 (May have to lay extra juice to get 3)
3% SAN FRANCISCO -3
3% WASHINGTON +3.5 (4’s are available out there)
3% BALTIMORE +2.5
3% GB/PHILLY OVER 46 (Now at 47.5 and still a best bet)

NEW ORLEANS -5.5 Minnesota 48

Not a lot of changes for the Vikings when compared to the 2009 version that won the NFC North and lost in the NFC Championship game to these same Saints. Minnesota lost RB Chester Taylor to the Bears. They also haven’t added much but did add CB Chris Cook in the draft to shore up their secondary along with signing CB Lito Sheppard. But Cook hurt himself in preseason and will miss at least this game and maybe more time. CB Cedric Griffin is also recovering from a knee injury suffered in last years Championship game and is likely to miss this game as well. That doesn’t leave a lot of depth in the secondary against a team that can spread you out with all of their receiving options. On offense they lose their best receiving threat in Sidney Rice, who will probably be out for at least the first half of the season. C John Sullivan also may not start to open the season and Brett Favre comes off ankle surgery and figures to be less mobile than he already was. The Vikings do get E.J. Henderson back at LB after missing the last 6+ games last year.

For the Saints, they picked up DE’s Alex Brown from the Bears and Jimmy Wilkerson from TB. Gone are LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper will begin the season on the PUP list.

Minnesota averaged 6.9yps last year against teams allowing just 6.3yps. They were just average running the ball, averaging 4.1ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr. Overall on offense, they gained 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. Their defense allowed just 3.9ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. But, the pass defense allowed 6.1yps against teams averaging just 5.8yps. Overall, they allowed 5.2yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl. The Vikings offense was above average and just below average on defense due to their inability to defend the pass.

The Saints averaged 4.6ypr against teams allowing just 4.3ypr and passed for 7.9yps against teams allowing just 6.3yps. Overall, the Saints averaged 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, NO allowed 4.5ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr and allowed 6.2yps against teams averaging just 6.0yps. Overall, they allowed 5.5yppl against teams averaging just 5.2yppl. Clearly, they were outstanding on offense and slightly below average on defense. Part of the issue for the Saints on defense last year was their starters missed over 20 games due to injuries, not counting the last regular season game where they sat starters.

It will be very hard for Minnesota to stay in this game, IMO. The Vikings dominated the game last year here but lost because of five turnovers. NO held Minnesota to an average game on offense but it was the Vikings defense that really stymied the Saints offense, holding them to just 4.8yppl. While the yardage numbers greatly favored Minnesota, it was really a factor of them controlling the clock and having the ball for about 27 more plays. Minnesota, for all of their dominance last year, had only one sack on Drew Brees. They certainly disrupted him but they couldn’t sack him. Without much help in the secondary, it will be up to the Vikings front four to win this game and I don’t see that happening with short drops from Brees. For Minnesota, again, they were about what was to be expected on offense last year but that was with Sidney Rice healthy. While Rice only accounted for four catches, he is one less worry for the Saints defense. Favre has looked rusty so far and with his ankle still trying to recover, I don’t see him moving around much in the pocket. Any kind of pass rush from the Saints will cause problems.

I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers, using last years stats, predict a Saints win by six and a total of 54 points. Minnesota will probably want to control the clock again by running the ball, which could lead to a lower scoring game. The Saints, will no doubt, want to jump ahead and then apply pressure to Favre, who is a sitting duck back there if they can get to him. That’s easier said than done, of course.

Minnesota played four road games last year against good passing teams and allowed 27, 26, 30 and 31 points. The Saints played five home games against good passing teams and allowed 27, 17, 24, 14 and 28 points. That’s an average of about 28 points allowed by Minnesota and an average of about 22 allowed by the Saints. The Vikings averaged about 28 points on the road against similar type defenses like the Saints. NO averaged about 30 points at home against similar type defenses of the Vikings. Add those numbers up and you get about 29-25 in favor of NO.

I’ll lean the way of the Saints in this game and really feel they could make this much worse on the Vikings but I’ll respect what the Vikings did to the Saints last year enough to stay off this game as a Best Bet. NEW ORLEANS 30 MINNESOTA 24

NY GIANTS -7.5 Carolina 41

No significant additions to the Panthers this year that will play in this first game. But, plenty of deletions from the 2009 team. Gone are Julius Peppers, Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Brad Hoover, Keydrik Vincent, Damione Lewis, Hollis Thomas, Na’il Digs and Chris Harris. Matt Moore takes over for Jake Delhomme. LB Thomas Davis begins the season the PUP list. Moore played the final five games last year and went 4-1 SU as a starter.

Giants added FS Antrel Rolle, LB Keith Bullock and SS Deon Grant this year along with first round draft pick DE Jason Pierre-Paul. Gone are DT Fred Robbins, LB Antonio Pierce, LB Danny Clark. Also back are CB Corey Webster, CB Aaron Ross, SS Kenny Phillips and they have replaced Antonio Pierce with Keith Bullock. Those guys missed nearly 40 starts last year for the Giants.

Carolina averaged 4.8ypr against teams allowing just 4.3ypr last year. They averaged just 5.6yps against teams allowing 6.1yps. Overall, they averaged 5.2yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. They were above average running the ball, well below average throwing the ball and just below average overall on offense. On defense, they allowed 4.5ypr against teams averaging just 4.3ypr. Pass defense was very good, allowing just 5.9yps against teams averaging 6.4yps. Overall, above average, allowing 5.3yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

The Giants averaged just 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr. They passed for 7.1yps against teams allowing just 6.1yps. Overall, they gained 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.2ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 6.2yps against teams averaging 6.4yps and overall, they allowed 5.3yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.

Tackle Otah will miss this game for Carolina. My numbers favor the Giants by six points and predict about 48 points. Those numbers are based on last season and Carolina became the first team in NFL history to not score an offensive td in preseason. The Giants qualify in a couple of week one situations, which are 57-22-3 and 41-14-5. The latter system plays against teams that struggled to score in preseason. I’d like to play the Giants here but they lost at home in week 16 last year to Carolina 41-9. While that was a different team, the Giants still have some nagging injuries, which are enough to keep me from laying a bunch of points. Add to that Carolina’s defense did look good in preseason and in their last six games last year, they allowed an average of 11.5 points and never more than 20 points. NY Giants scored 20 or more at home in all but two games last year. NY GIANTS 27 CAROLINA 17

Miami -3 BUFFALO 39

Miami adds rookies DT Jared Odrick, OLB Koa Misi and G John Jerry. They’ve also added WR Brandon Marshall, LG Richie Incognito and ILB Karlos Dansby. Gone are WR Tedd Ginn, LB Joey Porter, LB Jason Taylor, LB Akin Ayodele, FS Gibril Wilson. Miami also adds Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan to now command the defense. They will continue to field a secondary on young players learning on the spot.

Buffalo adds RB C.J. Spiller, RT Cornell Green, DE Dwan Edwards and ILB Andra Davis. Gone are WR Terrell Owens and DL Aaron Schobel. Chan Gailey takes over as head coach and Buffalo is moving to a 3-4 defensive scheme.

Miami averaged just 4.4ypr last year against teams allowing 4.4ypr. The passing game was horrible, gaining just 5.4yps against teams allowing 6.0yps. Overall, they averaged 4.9yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.1ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr. The pass defense allowed 7.1yps against teams averaging 6.5yps. Overall, they allowed 5.8yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.

Buffalo averaged just 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr. They were even worse than Miami throwing the ball, averaging just 5.1yps against teams allowing 6.4yps. Overall, they gained just 4.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. The defense allowed 4.8ypr against teams averaging just 4.4ypr. Pass defense allowed just 5.4yps against teams averaging 6.1yps. Overall, the defense allowed 5.1yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

Miami lost here last year 31-14 and are 1-5 SU in Buffalo over the last six years. Their defense allowed at least 17 points in seven of eight road games last year. Miami has three new starters on the offensive line and LT Jake Long is hurting. They are also young in the secondary, where they were burned last year. LB Channing Crowder is expected to miss this game as well. Miami had high hopes for 2010 but they under performed in the preseason and may be lucky to finish at .500 this year. Buffalo was 2-1 SU versus less than .500 teams at home last year with their only loss by three points. In 2008 they were 2-2 SU in the same scenario and 4-0 in 2007 and 2-0 in 2006. They are also 17-4 their last 21 as home favs of -3 or less to home dogs of +3 or less. Certainly plenty of question marks with Buffalo, especially on defense but their offense played pretty well in the preseason and Chan Gailey, who was brought in to put a charge in their offense, may have finally done that. Numbers favor Buffalo by one point and predict about 41 points. The Bills qualify in week one situations, which are 45-12-1 and 24-7-1. Getting points at home with a team who has performed well against mediocre opponents. BUFFALO 23 MIAMI 17

Atlanta -3 PITTSBURGH 38

Atlanta hopes to get productive playing time out of first round draft choice LB Sean Weatherspoon. They also added CB Dunta Robinson. Gone is CB Chris Houston. DT Jonathan Babineaux is suspended for the first game. Atlanta will also get back DT Peria Jerry who was injured most of last season.

Pittsburgh added first round pick C Maurkice Pouncey and they liked him enough to cut C Justin Hartwig. They also brought back LB Larry Foote, CB Bryant McFadden and will get back SS Troy Polamalu and DE Aaron Smith from injuries. Gone are RB Willie Parker, WR Santonio Holmes, DE Travis Kirschke and SS Tyrone Carter. QB Ben Roethlisberger will also miss the first four games.

Atlanta averaged just 4.1ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr last year. They averaged 6.0yps against teams allowing 6.0yps. Overall, they averaged 5.2yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.1ypr against teams averaging 4.4ypr. They allowed 7.0yps against teams averaging 6.3yps. Overall, they allowed 5.7yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.

Pittsburgh averaged just 4.0ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 7.1yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.8ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 5.8yps against teams averaging 5.8yps. Overall, they allowed 5.0yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl.

Pittsburgh certainly had problems last year and will begin the year without QB Ben Roethlisberger (4 game suspension) but they also get back S Troy Polamalu and DE Aaron Smith, which were key losses for them in 2009. Atlanta was 2-5 SU on the road versus .500 or better teams last year, with one of those two wins by just three points. In 2008, they were 2-4 SU in that role. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 38 points. I have situations on both teams but they lean towards Pittsburgh. A little too early to write off Pittsburgh and when getting points at home in this type of situation, I have to look their way. PITTSBURGH 20 ATLANTA 17

CHICAGO -6 Detroit 43

Detroit did a fantastic job of upgrading their defensive line this past offseason. They added first round draft pick Ndamukong Suh, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, DT Corey Williams. They also added WR Nate Burleson, LG Rob Sims, TE Tony Scheffler and CB Chris Houston. Gone are DT Grady Jackson, DE Dewayne White, LB Ernie Sims, LB Larry Foote, CB Anthony Henry, CB William James and CB Phillip Buchanon.

Chicago added FS Major Wright in the draft and he may contribute early and often this season. The biggest addition was adding DE Julius Peppers but they also added RB Chester Taylor, TE Brandon Manumaleuna, S Chris Harris and CB Tim Jennings. They will also get back LB Brian Urlacher and LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, who were both hurt early in the season last year. Gone are FB Jason McKie, LT Orlando Pace, DE Adewale Ogunleye, DE Alex Brown, CB Al Afalava and CB Nathan Vasher.

Detroit averaged 3.9ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr last year. They averaged 4.9yps against teams allowing 6.1yps. Overall, they averaged 4.5yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.4ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 7.5yps against teams averaging 7.2yps. Overall, they allowed 6.1yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Chicago averaged 3.9ypr against teams allowing 4.0ypr last year. They averaged 5.7yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 5.0yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.3ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 5.9yps against teams averaging 6.1yps. Overall, they allowed 5.2yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

Lions offense looks to be much improved this year with the addition of LG Rob Sims along with Javid Best. Add in one year of experience for Matthew Stafford and this offense looks like it could be very good this year. The defensive line might be the most improved position in the NFL this year. They still have plenty of issues in their secondary but the improved defensive line should help them somewhat in the secondary. For Chicago, they appear to have all sorts of troubles with their offensive line protecting Jay Cutler and with the Lions new defensive line, that could spell trouble. Detroit lost here last year 48-24 and they have allowed at least 20 points in 28 of their past 32 road games. Chicago averaged 32 points at home last year against poor defenses but all of those numbers just mentioned were for completely different teams. Numbers favor Chicago by seven points before accounting for the situations Detroit qualifies in and predict about 45 points. The Lions qualify in week one situations, which are 45-14-1 and another situation that is also 45-14-1. Lions ability to score, improved defensive line against a poor offensive line, getting a bunch of points make this an automatic play. Just hoping their secondary can hold up enough. CHICAGO 24 DETROIT 23

NEW ENGLAND -4.5 Cincinnati 45

Cincinnati added TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley through the draft. They also picked up WR Terrell Owens, CB Adam Jones and recently S Reggie Nelson along with K Mike Nugent. In addition, Cincinnati gets back defensive starters who lost some 25 games last year due to injuries. Gone are RB Larry Johnson, FB Jeremi Johnson, WR Laveranues Coles and K Shayne Graham.

Patriots added OLB Jermaine Cunningham and CB Devin McCourty via the draft. Also added are DT Gerard Warren, LB Tracey White and S Jarrad Page. Gone are CB Shawn Springs, TE Ben Watson, TE Chris Baker, DE Jarvis Green, LB Adalius Thomas, LB Junior Seau and P Chris Hansen. DE Ty Watten was also lost for the season, along with CB Leigh Bodden.

Cincinnati averaged 4.1ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 6.0yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 5.0yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.8ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 5.6yps against teams averaging 6.1yps. Overall, they allowed 5.0yppl against teams averaging 5.2yppl.

New England averaged 4.1ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 7.4yps against teams allowing 6.0yps. Overall, they averaged 5.9yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.4ypr against teams averaging 4.4ypr. They allowed 6.1yps against teams averaging 6.0yps. Overall, they allowed 5.4yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

Patriots are really banged up on the offensive line, lost Ty Warren on defense for the year and in the secondary to go along with a young, under performing defense. Cincinnati faced two similar defenses last year and won 31-24 at Green Bay (Packers had not hit their stride yet) and lost 24-27 at SD. NE played two games at home last year against a similar type offense (quality qb, solid running back, good receivers and good offensive line) and defeated Baltimore 27-21 and lost to Baltimore in the playoffs 33-14. Last years numbers favor NE by seven points and predict about 39 points but we have to make adjustments for the offseason and preseason additions and injuries. I don’t have any situations on this game but will lean Cincinnati’s way because of the better rushing offense and defense. A lean to the over as well. NEW ENGLAND 24 CINCINNATI 23

TAMPA BAY -3 Cleveland 37

The Browns added CB Joe Haden and S T.J. Ward via the draft. They also replaced their quarterbacks with QB Jake Delhomme. They also added RT Tony Pashos, TE Ben Watson, LB Scott Fujita, LB Chris Gocong and CB Sheldon Brown. Gone are QB’s Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis, WR Donte Stallworth, TE Steve Heiden, C Hank Fraley, RT Ryan Tucker, DT Corey Williams, LB Kamerion Wimbley, LB Alex Hall, CB Hank Poteat and FS Brodney Pool.

TB adds DT Gerald McCoy in the draft and also WR Mike Williams. They also added LG Keydrik Vincent. Gone are QB Byron Leftwich, FB B.J. Askew, WR Antonio Bryant, DT Chris Hovan, DT Jimmy Wilkerson, FS Will Allen, SS Jermaine Phillips, P Dirk Johnson. They also will lose CB Aqib Talib for the first game.

Cleveland averaged 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr last year. They averaged 4.3yps against teams allowing 6.0yps. Overall, they averaged 4.2yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.5ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 7.1yps against teams averaging 6.1yps. Overall, they allowed 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

Tampa Bay averaged 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged y5.4ps against teams allowing 6.0yps. Overall, they averaged 4.9yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.8ypr against teams averaging 4.4ypr. They allowed 6.5yps against teams averaging 6.5yps. Overall, they allowed 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.

Browns and Jake Delhomme looked terrific in preseason. Cleveland was 2-1 SU on the road versus less than .500 teams last year when getting six or less points. They were 2-0 SU in 2008 in the same situation. They can definitely play against the poor teams. TB, when a poor team like they were last year and in 2006, won just 2 of 15 home games (played one game in London last year), with one of those wins by just three points. They will also play this game without their best corner, Aqib Talib, who is suspended for one game. Numbers favor TB by two points and predict 37 points. Cleveland qualifies in a week one situation, which is 24-7-1. Cleveland has the better running game, more experienced qb and is in a better mode entering this game. CLEVELAND 20 TAMPA BAY 17

JACKSONVILLE -2.5 Denver 39.5

Broncos add G Zane Beadles and C J.D. Watson via the draft and both could start week one. They also add DE Justin Bannan, NT Jamal Williams. Gone are RB Peyton Hillis, WR Brandon Marshall, TE Tony Scheffler, C Ben Hamilton, C Casey Wiegmann, DT Vonnie Holiday, DT Kenny Peterson, LB Andra Davis, CB Ty Law.

Jacksonville adds first round draft choice DE Tyson Alualu. They also picked up DE Aaron Kampman, LB Kirk Morrison. Gone are WR Torry Holt, LT Tra Thomas, DE Quentin Groves, DT John Henderson, LB Clint Ingram, SS Gerald Alexander and FS Reggie Nelson.

Denver averaged 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 6.0yps against teams allowing 6.1yps. Overall, they averaged 5.2yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.1ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 5.3yps against teams averaging 6.5yps. Overall, they allowed 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Jacksonville averaged 4.5ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr last year. They averaged 6.1yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 5.4yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.0ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 7.2yps against teams averaging 6.3yps. Overall, they allowed 5.8yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Tough to get a read on either of these teams for me. Denver lost their best pass rusher, Elvis Dumervil and will also play this game without RT Ryan Clark. Jacksonville went 5-3 SU at home last year but only two of those five wins came by more than three points. Numbers favor Jacksonville by one point and predict about 38 points. Jacksonville does qualify in a week one situation, which is 57-22-3. I’ll pass on this game until I have a better read on each of these teams. JACKSONVILLE 21 DENVER 17

Indianapolis -2.5 HOUSTON 47

Not many new additions for Indy in 2010. They add DE Jerry Hughes in the draft but didn’t pick up any significant players elsewhere. Gone are LG Ryan Liija, DT Raheem Brock, CB Tim Jennings and CB Marlin Jackson.

Houston added CB Kareem Jackson in the draft. They also added K Neil Rackers. Gone are LG Chester Pitts and CB Dunta Robinson. LB Brian Cushing will miss the first four games due to suspension.

Indianapolis averaged 3.6ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr last year. They averaged 7.6yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 6.1yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.2ypr against teams averaging 4.4ypr. They allowed 5.5yps against teams averaging 6.2yps. Overall, they allowed 4.9yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Houston averaged 3.4ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 7.5yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.3ypr against teams averaging 4.4ypr. They allowed 6.1yps against teams averaging 5.9yps. Overall, they allowed 5.4yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

Big game for Houston against the team they need to beat if they are ever going to win the AFC South division. Indy is 7-1 SU at Houston the last eight years. Over the last five years, at least 51 points have been totaled in each of those games between these two in Houston. The Texans were 1-2 SU last year at home against better than .500 teams with the only win against NE in the last game of the season. In 2008, they were 2-2 SU with both wins by one point, which would get the cover here. Indy won last years game 35-27 in come from behind fashion. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 47 points. Indy has some significant issues on the offensive line. Houston will be without LB Brian Cushing who is suspended. Houston qualifies in a week one situation, which is 45-17-1. If there was ever a time for Houston to win this game, this is it. I’d like to take Houston in this game but with such a close line, it’s hard for me to pull the trigger against a guy like Peyton Manning. I’ll lean their way but that’s it. HOUSTON 24 INDIANAPOLIS 23

TENNESSEE -6.5 Oakland 40.5

Raiders added, via the draft, LB Rolando McClain, DT Lamarr Houston and OT Jared Veldheer. They also picked up QB Jason Campbell, DE Quentin Groves, DT John Henderson, LB Kamerion Wimbley. Gone are RB Justin Fargas, LT Cornell Green, DE Greg Ellis, DT Gerard Warren, LB Kirk Morrison and LB Jon Alston.

Titans picked up DE Derrick Morgan in the first round. They also added DE Jason Babin and LB Will Witherspoon. Gone are RB LenDale White, TE Alge Crumpler, C Kevin Mawae, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE Jevon Kearse, DT Kevin Vickerson, LB Keith Bullock, CB Nick Harper and P Craig Hentrich.

Oakland averaged 4.2ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 4.6yps against teams allowing 5.9yps. Overall, they averaged 4.5yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.4ypr against teams averaging 4.0ypr. They allowed 7.1yps against teams averaging 6.4yps. Overall, they allowed 5.7yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Tennessee averaged 5.3ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 6.2yps against teams allowing 6.1yps. Overall, they averaged 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.2ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 6.6yps against teams averaging 6.6yps. Overall, they allowed 5.7yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.

Not much of an opinion in this game. Oakland figures to be improved with QB Jason Campbell. Oakland allowed at least 19 points in seven of eight road games last year. Numbers favor Tennessee by eight points an predict about 40 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. TENNESSEE 24 OAKLAND 17

Green Bay -3 PHILADELPHIA 47.5

No significant pick ups for GB this past year other than drafting LT Brian Bulaga but he won’t start for them. Gone are DE Aaron Kampman, DE Johnny Jolly (year suspension) and P Jeremy Kapinos.

Philly adds through the draft DE Brandon Graham and FS Nate Allen. They also added DE Darryl Tapp, LB Ernie Sims, LB Alex Hall and CB Marlin Jackson. Gone are QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, WR Reggie Brown, WR Kevin Curtis, LT Shawn Andrews, DE Jason Babin, DE Chris Clemons, DE Darren Howard, LB Chris Gocong, LB Will Witherspoon, LB Tracey White, CB Sheldon Brown and SS Sean Jones.

Green Bay averaged 4.4ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 6.9yps against teams allowing 6.4yps. Overall, they averaged 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.6ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 5.6yps against teams averaging 5.8yps. Overall, they allowed 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl.

Philadelphia averaged 4.3ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr last year. They averaged 7.0yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 5.9yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.9ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 5.4yps against teams averaging 6.2yps. Overall, they allowed 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

I released an over play on this game on August 27th with a total of 46. The number has since risen but there is still plenty of value with the over. If you did not receive that write up, please let me know and I will send it to you again. Both these teams struggled against better than .500 teams last year, with GB going 0-3 SU on the road and Philly 0-2 SU at home. With the Packers defense still a huge question mark I need to lean towards Philly ATS. Numbers favor Philly by two points and predict about 56 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. GREEN BAY 28 PHILADELPHIA 27

San Francisco -3 SEATTLE 37.5

The 49ers picked up key draft choices in first round picks RT Anthony Davis and LG Mike Iupati. They also added WR Ted Ginn Jr. and LB Travis LaBoy. Maybe most important is the fact they bring back offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, which is the first time they have had the same offensive coordinator since Alex Smith joined the team. Gone are WR Arnaz Battle, WR Issac Bruce, RT Tony Pashos, CB Dre Bly and FS Mark Roman.

Seahawks drafted LT Russell Okung but he will miss this game. They also drafted FS Earl Thomas who could be a solid starter for them as well. Tons of additions and subtractions for Seattle. They picked up RB Leon Washington, WR Mike Williams, LG Ben Hamilton, DE Chris Clemons. Gone are QB Senaca Wallace, WR Nate Burleson, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, LG Rob Sims, DE Cory Redding, DE Darryl Tapp, CB Ken Lucas and SS Deon Grant.

San Francisco averaged 4.4ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 5.3yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.0yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.7ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 6.2yps against teams averaging 6.2yps. Overall, they allowed 5.2yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Seattle averaged 3.9ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 5.4yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 4.8yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.2ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 6.6yps against teams averaging 6.1yps. Overall, they allowed 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

Plain and simple, Seattle is in rebuilding mode and isn’t very good, especially on offense. That doesn’t bode well for them against a strong defense like SF. SF is 3-1 SU on the road with Singletary as their head coach against less than .500 teams. Meanwhile, Seattle is just 1-4 SU the last two years versus better than .500 teams at home (I figure SF for an above .500 team this year). SF lost here last year 20-17 but they out played Seattle and bad play calling and a few bad breaks did them in. Numbers favor SF by six points and predict about 39 points. SF qualifies in a week one situation, which is 66-24-3. Better team should hit Seattle in the mouth and dominate the line of scrimmage. If SF can’t win this game, they don’t deserve to win this division. SAN FRANCISCO 24 SEATTLE 13

Arizona -4 ST LOUIS 39

Arizona drafted NT Dan Williams and LB Daryl Washington. They also added QB Derek Anderson, LG Alan Faneca, ILB Paris Lenon, OLB Joey Porter, FS Kerry Rhodes. Gone are QB’s Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart, G Reggie Wells, WR Anquan Boldin, LT Mike Gandy, FB Dan Kreider, WR Jerheme Urban, DE Bertrand Berry, DE Chike Okeafor, LB Karlos Dansby, CB Ralph Brown, FS Antrel Rolle and K Neil Rackers.

Rams drafted QB Sam Bradford who will start immediately. They also added C Hank Fraley, DT Fred Robbins, LB Na’il Diggs and CB Kevin Dockery. Gone are QB Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller, LT Alex Barron, TE Randy McMichael, DE Leonard Little, DT LaJuan Ramsey, LB Paris Lenon,

Arizona averaged 4.1ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 6.6yps against teams allowing 6.5yps. Overall, they averaged 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.6ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 5.8yps against teams averaging 5.9yps. Overall, they allowed 5.3yppl against teams averaging 5.2yppl.

St Louis averaged 4.4ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 4.9yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 4.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.4ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr. They allowed 7.3yps against teams averaging 6.3yps. Overall, they allowed 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Numbers in this game favor Arizona by two points and predict about 38 points. The Rams qualify in a week one situation, which is 41-14-5. St. Louis lost 21-13 here last year. That was a game Arizona led 21-3 at halftime and Kurt Warner was knocked out of the game. Matt Leinart replaced Warner and could do nothing in the second half as the Rams outscored Arizona 10-0 but couldn’t overcome the large deficit in the first half. Derek Anderson will get the start in this game and I would like to take the Rams but they are still very inexperienced and I have a hard time taking them with such few points knowing the Rams have lost 22 of their last 24 home games and are 1-5 SU versus less than .500 teams in that same time span. I figure Arizona for a below .500 team this year. Lean only to St. Louis. ARIZONA 17 ST LOUIS 16

Dallas -4.5 WASHINGTON 40.5

Cowboys add WR Dez Bryant through the draft. They also added LT Alex Barron. Gone are LT Flozell Adams, LB Bobby Carpenter, FS Ken Hamlin. For this game offensive lineman Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier will likely miss this game.

Redskins add LT Trent Williams with a first round pick in the draft. They also added RT Jammal Brown, RG Artis Hicks, QB Donovan McNabb, WR Joey Galloway, NT Ma’ake Kemoealu and P Josh Bidwell. Gone are QB Jason Campbell, RB Ladell Betts, WR Antwan Randle El, LG Randy Thomas, LT Chris Samuels, LT Levi Jones, DT Renaldo Wynn, CB Fred Smoot and P Hunter Smith.

Dallas averaged 4.8ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr last year. They averaged 7.3yps against teams allowing 6.2yps. Overall, they averaged 6.2yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.0ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 6.0yps against teams averaging 6.3yps. Overall, they allowed 5.2yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Washington averaged 3.9ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr last year. They averaged 6.0yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.2yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.1ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr. They allowed 5.9yps against teams averaging 6.2yps. Overall, they allowed 5.1yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Cowboys are hurting up front on their offensive line with both offensive lineman listed above figured to miss this game. Dallas is 3-3 SU at Washington the past six years (with two of those wins by three and four points). They are just 3-7 SU on the road the last two years against teams who won seven or more games (About where I figure Washington to be) with wins by 4, 4 and 7 points. Dallas won here last year 17-0 but Washington had shut it down at that time. The Redskins have three new offensive lineman this year but considering how bad their line was last year, that is a good thing. Numbers favor Dallas by just one point and predict about 31 points. Washington qualifies in numerous week one situations, which are 45-17-1, 57-22-3 and 41-14-5. I’ll take a shot, getting points at home, with a good defense and now an experienced qb for the Skins knowing they are facing a team that is getting old on the offensive line and is missing key starters. Add that with the fact Dallas struggled in the preseason to move the ball and it’s a shot worth taking. WASHINGTON 20 DALLAS 13

NY JETS -1.5 Baltimore 36

Baltimore added some play making ability on the offense. They added WR Anquan Boldin, WR Dante Stallworth and this week added WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. They also picked up DE Cory Redding and S Ken Hamlin. Gone is DE Dwan Edwards, DT Justin Bannan and CB Frank Walker. Out for the year is CB Dominique Foxworth and on the PUP for the first six weeks is FS Ed Reed.

Jets add RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Santonio Holmes (4 game suspension), LB Jason Taylor, CB Antonio Cromartie, FS Brodney Poole. Gone are RB Thomas Jones, RB Leon Washington, LG Alan Faneca, DE Marques Douglas, DT Howard Green, CB Lito Sheppard, CB Donald Strickland, FS Kerry Rhodes and K Jay Feely.

Baltimore averaged 4.6ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 6.3yps against teams allowing 6.1yps. Overall, they averaged 5.5yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.5ypr against teams averaging 4.0ypr. They allowed 5.9yps against teams averaging 6.2yps. Overall, they allowed 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

The Jets averaged 4.5ypr against teams allowing 4.4ypr last year. They averaged 5.7yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.0yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. On defense, they allowed 3.7ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr. They allowed 4.8yps against teams averaging 6.2yps. Overall, they allowed 4.3yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Baltimore is 6-2 ATS when getting +3 or less points to -3 or less points on the road under Jim Harbaugh. Numbers in this game favor the Jets by 3.5 points before accounting for the situations Baltimore qualifies in and predict about 36 points. Baltimore has the better offense, better quarterback and a good enough defense to stay in this game. Baltimore’s weakness is in the secondary but the Jets pass offense isn’t good enough to take Baltimore out of this game. The Ravens qualify in week one situations, which are 45-12-1 and 41-14-5. Good defense with the better offense getting points. BALTIMORE 20 NY JETS 16

San Diego -4.5 KANSAS CITY 44.5

Chargers add first round draft pick RB Ryan Mathews. They also add CB Donald Strickland and CB Nate Vasher. Gone are RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Brandon Manumaleuna, NT Ian Scott, NT Jamal Williams, LB Tim Dobbins, CB Antonio Cromartie and SS Kevin Ellison.

Chiefs add FS Eric Berry in draft as well as RB Dexter McCluster. Also fresh on the roster is RB Thomas Jones, C Casey Wiegmann, RG Ryan Liija. Gone are WR Bobby Wade, LG Wade Smith, LG Mike Goff and LG Andy Allerman.

San Diego averaged 3.3ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 8.1yps against teams allowing 6.3yps. Overall, they averaged 5.9yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.5ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr. They allowed 5.9yps against teams averaging 5.9yps. Overall, they allowed 5.3yppl against teams averaging 5.2yppl.

KC averaged 4.0ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr last year. They averaged 4.9yps against teams allowing 6.1yps. Overall, they averaged 4.5yppl against teams allowing 5.2yppl. On defense, they allowed 4.8ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. They allowed 6.9yps against teams averaging 6.3yps. Overall, they allowed 5.8yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl.

SD is 4-6 SU the last ten games at Kansas City but has won the last three years here. On the road last year against poor defenses, SD’s games totaled 44, 44, 53 and 59 points. Against .500 or better teams at home, KC’s games have totaled 16-27, 20-26, 7-37 and 27-24. KC lost here last year to SD 37-7. Numbers favor SD by four points and predict about 51 points. Both teams qualify in week one situations. Strong lean towards the over in this game and a small lean to SD. SAN DIEGO 28 KANSAS CITY 23

DOUBLE DRAGON

TITANS -6
PACKERS -3
49'ERS -3
COWBOYS -3 (-120)
RAVENS +3 (-125)

Sean Michaels

NFL Dog of the Year

Cleveland Browns

Al DeMarco

OPENING PRO FOOTBALL GOY

10 Dimes Dallas Cowboys

Chad Greene

Colts/Texans Over 46.5

Packers/Eagles Over 47

5 STAR SPORTS PICKS

4'* SF 49ers -3

MTi Sports

4'* Cubs
4* Rays
4* Twins Under 9

Chris Jordan

600* Colts