Tim Trushel
Top - Pirates Over
Reg - Tigers
Anthony Redd
75 Dime Houston Texans
25 Dime Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Lang
Cleveland +3
Craig Davis
NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year
75 Dime Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Jeff Benton
50 DIME DALLAS COWBOYS
10 DIME HOUSTON TEXANS
COWBOYS
Let’s start here: The entire NFL community is beyond giddy about Mike Shanahan’s arrival in Washington D.C., and I say rightfully so – I mean, have you seen the list of the Redskins’ recent head coaches? For once, Daniel Snyder hit a home run with a sideline leader. But if we’re going to examine this objectively, it’s important to review what Shanahan did in the first year of his previous head coaching stops.
Here’s what such an examination reveals: In 1988, Shanahan took over a Raiders franchise that was 5-10 the year prior to his arrival (a strike-shortened 1987 season). In his first year, the Raiders went 7-9. An improvement? Sure. A savior? Hardly. Then after being unceremoniously – and inexplicably– dumped by Al Davis after just that one 7-9 season, Shanahan eventually landed in Denver in 1995, when he took over a John Elway-led Broncos program that had gone 7-9 the year prior to his arrival. Well, Shanahan’s first year with the Broncos yielded an 8-8 record – just a one game improvement from the previous year. The three ensuing seasons? Denver went a combined 39-9 in the regular season and won two Super Bowls.
The point? Fans in the nation’s capital should NOT expect immediate miracles with their Redskins. It takes times to turn around an NFL franchise in despair, and while I do believe Shanahan can get the job done eventually, it’s not going to happen overnight. In fact, if you take Shanahan’s first-season results with the Raiders and Broncos and assume a similar impact in Washington, you’re looking at an improvement of one to two games from last year. Which would put the Redskins (4-12 last year) at no better than 6-10.
OK, so the question now becomes this: Do you see one of those six wins coming tonight against Dallas, a legit Super Bowl contender? Clearly, I don’t. First off, forget about the Cowboys’ preseason struggles – they had some injury issues on the offensive line, and there was no way coach Wade Phillips was going to put Pro Bowl QB Tony Romo at unnecessary risk (for once, Phillips made a bright decision). Now that the bullets are flying for real, you’re going to see a Cowboys squad that much more resembles the one that won the NFC East last year by closing the regular season on an 8-3 run, capped by a 24-0 rout of the Eagles in Week 17.
The very next week, Dallas pounded Philadelphia once again in the playoffs, rolling 34-14 as a 3½-point home chalk. Throw in a 20-16 win in Philly in early November, and the Cowboys went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Eagles last year. Surely you’re aware that the Eagles’ quarterback in those three games was Donovan McNabb, who is now guiding the Redskins’ offense. So in three games against the Cowboys last year, McNabb went 0-3 SU and ATS, leading his offense to a grand total of 30 points, including just one touchdown.
Need I remind you that the weapons McNabb had in Philadelphia last year were FAR more explosive than the ones he now has in Washington? Need I also remind you that McNabb missed a bunch of critical training-camp practices (and three preseason games) this summer because of a bum ankle – an ankle this is still far from 100 percent, an ankle that the Cowboys will undoubtedly target tonight with their fierce pass rush?
Bottom line: McNabb and Shanahan instantly upgrade the Redskins’ talent portfolio. But it takes a lot more than an aging former All-Pro quarterback and a coach who has been away from the game for two years to turn chicken crap into chicken soup. And when you consider that Dallas went to D.C. last December and waltzed to a 17-0 win as a 7-point road favorite – outgaining the Redskins 393-208 in winning their third straight in this rivalry – there’s no doubt who the right side is in this contest.
Oh, by the way: The Redskins (3-11 ATS last 14 home games) have mustered up a whopping 16 total points in those three losses to Dallas!
TEXANS
I smell a trap. Stick with me here: The Texans have dropped five of their last six season-openers (all SU and ATS). The Texans faced the Colts 16 times since the Houston franchise was reestablished in 2004, winning exactly once. The Texans are missing a key defense member in linebacker/reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing (suspended for PEDs), and injuries will force Houston to start a rookie cornerback … against Peyton Manning.
And, despite all this, the Colts are laying less than a field goal today. Why is that? Oh, I don’t know, perhaps because Vegas is trying to entice big Indy money because it knows the right side is the Texans? Well, those suckers who do bet the Colts deserve what they’re about to get, because Houston is winning this football game – in part because it HAS to win it (if ever there was a must-win game in Week 1 of the season, this is it for Houston) and in part because they’re simply a better all-around team.
You read that correctly: The Texans have more talent than Indianapolis. It’s a fact. They just don’t have a Hall of Fame quarterback (but they do have a very good one in Matt Schaub).
Funny thing is Houston has shown many times that it can hang with the Colts – in fact, if football were a 3½-quarter game, the Texans would be much better than 1-15 against Indy. They just need to learn how to close, and now that they’re much more mature than they’ve ever been – and now that the Texans’ improving defensive line can take advantage of a depleted Colts offensive line and pressure Manning consistently – I’m convinced today is the day the Texans come of age.
Two things to keep in mind: 1) Indy has limped out of the gate the last two years, losing 29-13 as a 10-point favorite to the Bears two years ago and barely getting by Jacksonville 14-12 as a seven-point chalk last year (and the Colts were at HOME for both those games); and 2) the Texans have had this game circled the entire offseason – this is their statement game, and they’ll hit the field with even greater intensity than they normally would for a season opener.
The Duke's Sports
Carolina (+7) for 2.5 Units
Carolina's HC Fox has been a dangerous road dog of less than 8 points against non-division opponents at 13-2 and we'll look for the Panthers' late season surge to carry over here; after all, Fox, who was the DC at NY before hired in Carolina, has had his team well prepared vs New York. The Panthers trashed New York 41-9 late last season and did not lose by more than 7 points to them in his tenure. QB Matt Moore gained valuable experience late last year and he still has arguably the best RB tandem in the NFL with Williams and Stewart, and All-Pro WR Steve Smith to help him out. The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 ATS at home. They're breaking in a new DC but still have question marks in defensive personnel. Carolina the call.
Bob Balfe
Padres / Giants Under 6.5
Both pitchers are outstanding (arguably the top two pitchers in baseball). Neither team can hit for much power, so today should be a classic pitchers duel. Look for both guys to battle each other deep into a low- scoring game. Take the Under.
James Manos
Cowboys at Redskins
Pick: Redskins +3.5
I might hold off betting this game a bit, there are plenty of +3.5's out there but we will probably see some +4's closer to gametime as the public team, Dallas, catches the Sunday night chase money. Cowboys expected to be Superbowl participants but this is a very difficult opening game for them. Dallas must travel to face an exceedingly motivated division rival and do so in front of a national TV audience. New Redskins HC Shannahan is excellent and will be out to prove he can resurrect this moribound franchise. New Redskins QB McNabb is an extreme competitor and will out to prove that the Eagles made a mistake in discarding him so casually. McNabb is very familiar with the Cowboys and remembers two embarrassing defeats to end the '09 season. I like the motivational factors vs a overhyped and public backed road team and this one is an upset in the making. Skins plus the points.
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Cleveland +3
2 Units St. Louis +3.5
1 Unit Indy -2
1 Unit Oakland +6.5
1 Unit Dallas/Wash Under 40
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
50* Play Atlanta (-235) over St. Louis
Atlanta pitcher, Tim Hudson has won 21 of the last 24 home games when pitching on a Sunday and he is 10-4 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.97. St. Louis pitcher, Kyle Lohse has lost 13 of the last 16 road games and he has also lost 8 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +175 to +250.
50* Play Cincinnati (-265) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has lost 23 of the last 26 road games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also lost 34 of the last 47 games when playing on a Sunday. Brian Burres has lost 12 consecutive road games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he is 1-3 in road games this season with an ERA of 7.77.
WUNDERDOG
5 Units Indianapolis Colts -1.5
The Indianapolis Colts will once again be led by Peyton Manning. What does that mean? Lots of wins. He will again lead a talented team back into the playoffs. Here his team is only asked to lay a couple of points. Again, people are expecting more out of the Texans than they are likely to deliver. Indy went 16-3 last year while the Texans, in a supposed break-out year, went 9-7 and were .500 at home. In division games, they were 1-5! Meanwhile, the Colts are 12-2 vs. conference foes thepast two seasons and 7-1 on the road over that span. I like Peyton and the Colts here.
ATS Lock Club
6 Units Atlanta -1
5 Units Cincinnati +5.5
5 Units Green Bay -3
4 Units Washington +3.5
KELSO
50 Units Tennessee Titans
10 Units NY Giants
10 Units GB Packers
5 Unit PARLAY:GB Packers/NY Giants
10 Units Dallas Cowboys/Washington Redskins Under 40
5 Units Miami Dolphins
3 Units Cleveland Browns
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* Green Bay
4* Cleveland
4* Houston
3* Tennessee
3* Miami
Steven Budin
Jacksonville