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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, September 12,2010

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Paul Leiner

500* Dolphins -3

100* Phi/GB Over 47.5

50* Det/Chi Over 44.5

50* Steelers +1.5

25* Lions +6.5

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:25 am
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BIG AL

Falcons -2

Nationals -140

Angels/Mariners Under 7.5

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:27 am
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Dave Cokin

GB Packers

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:27 am
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NSA

20* Steelers +1.5
20* Green Bay -3
20* Raiders +6.5

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:28 am
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igz1 sports

4* Indianapolis Colts -1

3* Tampa Bay +120

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:31 am
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North Coast Power Plays

4* NY GIANTS
4* CLEVELAND
2* JACKSONVILLE
1* RAMS/CARDS UNDER

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:37 am
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Seabass

300* Houston +1
200* Steam Buffalo +3
100* Oakland +6
100* Seattle +3
100* Cleveland +3
50* Teaser Buffalo/Miami Over with Dallas/Washington Under

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:38 am
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Savannah Sports

3* Tennessee Over 40
2* Cleveland +3
2* Dallas -3

Eric Degarde

2* Houston Under 47.5
2* San Francisco -3
2* San Diego Under 6.5

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:39 am
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Larry Ness

10* AFC Blowout GOY

Tennessee

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:43 am
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STAN LISOWSKI

3* DETROIT +6.5

Lions are going to be a club to keep an eye on as they made improvements on defense while adding big offensive options to that side of the ball with Burleson and Scheffler added in trades, with Best, a huge draft pick. All of which should help star-in-waiting Stafford at QB; and all-world WR Johnson. The Bears showed in the preseason that there could be some issues with the offensive line as Bear QBs were sacked a lot. Chicago has dropped their regular season opener to the number 6 of the past 9 years. Winless clubs from the exhibitions have lost ATS in the 1st game for real 86% of the time the last 3 years.

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:54 am
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Northcoast

3'* Packers
3* Jags
3* NY Giants

Marquee Cowboys Under

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 9:59 am
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Marc Lawrence

Houston Texans +2

The strategy in this matchup is two-fold. One, division home dogs that won nine or more games the previous season are 20-8 ATS anytime during the first three games of the campaign, including 18-4 when taking less than five points. Two, defending Super Bowl losers are just 3-11 SU and ATS when they open a new season on the road, including 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS since 1990. Yes, we realize Indy has made a living in this series (15-1 SU all-time), but they are only 3-5 ATS here. With the Texans 8-3 ATS as home dogs under Gary Kubiak, including 5-1 in division play, and the Colts on a five game losing skein (0-4 pre-season and the Super Bowl loss), look for the upset here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Houston.

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 10:28 am
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Mike Lineback

4* 49ers -2.5 -130 (1/2 pt buy)

Basically, playing against two teams' adjusting to new coaches and new schemes, that both had defensive issues & QB protections problems last season. And the problem may be worse to start the 2010 season. Not to mention, they lack playmakers on the offensive end. Bills QB Edwards has talent, but often makes enough crucial mistakes to lose games. Seattle QB Hasselbeck could be running for his life on Sunday. The OL is banged up & unsettled again. They haven't decided on their starting LT for Sunday. And you know, San Francisco are going to attack this weakness with relent. In addition, Carroll let go of his veteran receivers, thus, Hasselbeck will have to rely on young unproven talent, at all the offensive skill positions. Ewards O options are limited as well. On the flip side, both San Francisco & Miami, have solid QB's, strong running games, and plenty of playmakers in the passing game. San Fran QB Smith, always very talented, came on strong last season, and is playing in the same O system, in consecutive seasons, for the first time in his career.

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 10:28 am
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Lenny Del Genio

Green Bay -3

In the eyes of the oddsmakers and the public, these teams are about even, but that's far from reality. Granted, they both lost in the Wild Card round LY, but the Packers took a major step forward in the offseason while the Eagles took a step back in deciding to go from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb at QB. In our opinion, the Eagles are where the Packers were two years ago when Green Bay went 6-10 SU in Rodgers first season as a starter. The team's average age is 25 with no projected starter over the age of 29. This will be the first time in years without McNabb, Bryant Westbrook or Brian Dawkins (all gone) as a starter. Defense became a major issue in Philly last year in the wake of long time DC Jim Johnson's passing. This unit allowed 27 touchdowns and ranked 19th in scoring. Over the last 10 games, they gave up 20+ points eight times. This is terrible news when facing a Green Bay squad that looks to be a legit Super Bowl contender. QB Aaron Rodgers is the only player in league history to throw for more than 4000 yards in each of his first two full seasons as a starter and the Packers offense looked to be in midseason form during the preseason, including a 59-point effort vs. the Colts. They ended LY on a 7-1 SU, 7-0-1 ATS run, with the only loss coming on the final play at Pittsburgh, and could have beaten the defending NFC Champion Cardinals if not for digging themselves a huge hole in the 1st half and an unlucky break in OT. The offensive line issues of a year ago are gone as they allowed single digit sacks in the final seven games after a rough start. Rodgers may be the best QB in the league right now. He has a ton of weapons with a duo of 1,000 yd WR (Driver and Jennings, a RB off BB 1200+ seasons (Grant) and maybe the best TE in the league (Finley). In the preseason, GB averaged 296 yds passing and 408 yds total offense. Rodgers completed better than 77% of his passes for 400+ yards and six TD's vs. zero INT's. The Packers have not won in Philly since '62, but have been a great bet on the road during the McCarthy era, going 22-10 ATS. The Eagles were 0-5 SU/ATS vs. playoff teams last year. Green Bay is our 20* NFC Game of the Month.

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 10:28 am
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

10* Cardinals / Rams Under 39.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

The Cardinals saw the total go "under" the number in 11 of 16 contests last year; it saw the total go "under" the number in three of four pre-season contests this year including Week 3 in Chicago with a total of 23 points.

To say the Cards have gone through a ton of changes since last year would be an understatement; however, note, most of the changes have come on the offensive side.

Derek Anderson gets the call under center; in my opinion the Cards are in trouble this year offensively.

Interesting to note that Arizona saw the total go "under" the number in six of its final nine down the stretch last year; also over the last two years the Cardinals have seen the total go "under" the number in 9 of 12 vs. division opponents and in 10 of 18 road games.

On the other side of the field: The Rams saw the total go "under" the number in 9 of 16 games last year; it saw the total go "over" the number in all four pre-season games this year.

Sam Bradford will make his debut on Sunday, but expect Steven Jackson to be the focal point in this one as he'll look to take the pressure off his rookie QB.

St. Louis remains weak on the pass rush, and the secondary will be a weak point once again, however it catches a break here vs. Anderson.

Important to point out that St. Louis did in fact see the total go "under" the number in four of its final five down the stretch last year; its also seen the total go "under" the number in 8 of its last 11 vs. division opponents over the last two years and in three of four as a home dog in the 3 1/2 to 7 point range.

Bottom line: There are simply too many questions on offense for both teams; when coupled with the strong "under" trends each team has exhibited in this position, we are in fact getting excellent value on the UNDER in this situation;

 
Posted : September 12, 2010 10:28 am
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