Robert Ferringo
7-Unit Play. Take Green Bay (-3) over Chicago
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month
MTi Sports
4-Star Denver +3’ over CINCINNATI
Cincinnati won three in a row to end last season and that is inflating this line significantly. Also inflating the line here is the fact that the Broncos are projected to win only 6.5 games this season. Both of these reasons are faulty. Last season the Bengals beat the Redskins, Browns and Chiefs over their last three games to finish at 4-11-1 on the season. Washington had just dropped 4-of-5 and were off a tough road game vs the Ravens the previous week. The Browns had lost four straight and were off a Monday Night game vs the Eagles and they had a head coach that was on his way out. The Chiefs had lost three straight and were 1-10 their last 11 when they faced the Bengals in Cincinnati on the final week of the season. Clearly, Cincinnati’s three-game win streak is very suspect. To use a horse racing analogy, they “passed tiring horses.”Now let’s turn our attention to the Broncos low win total for this season.The Denver Broncos finished the 2008 season at 8-8Unfortnately for them this was good enough for second place in their division, which means that they drew the second place teams from the AFC East and AFC South as Wild Card opponents. Again, unfortunately for them, the Colts and Patriots finished in second place in their divisions in 2008, matching them up with the Broncos in 2009 and giving the Broncos a brutal schedule this season.The linesmakers have noticed, as their futures line is 6.5 wins for the season. If the Broncos don’t win seven games this season, it will be the first time since the turn of the century that they have done so. If their tough schedule means anything in THIS game, it will have them motivated for their first two games of the season, as they get the Bengals and Browns.We see very little reason for optimism for the Bengals this season. They have a head coach who has not had a winning season in three years, they lost their best receiver to free agency (apologies to Ocho-cinco). They have a center who will be making his first NFL start and have a weak running back squad.The only reason for any hope would be the return of Carson Palmer. This is a LOT of responsibility to put on a QB –especially one who is returning from injury.In 2008, Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 69 in the four games in which he appeared.The Bengals lost all four, although the competi-tion was pretty tough. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who filled in for Palmer in 2008, had a QB rating of 70 and was 4-3-1 over the last eight games of the season. The Bengals then let him go to the Bills as a free agent in the off-season. Chad Ochocinco had a terrible season in 2008. After 1369 and 1440 receiving yards 2006 and 2007 respectively, he dropped precipitously to 540 in 2008.The hype for the Bengals this season has no substance. The de-fensive coaches are high on pick-ups DB Roy Williams from Dallas and DTTank Johnson from the Bears. However, both of these players were released by their teams. Dallas releasedWilliams because he can’t cover anyone and the Bears released Johnson because of his off-field troubles. This hype is merely to sell tickets – and they need to sell tickets because their home opener isn’t sold out as of September 1st. Their fans aren’t buying the hype and neither a serious handicapper.The Shanahan era is over in Denver and young Josh McDaniels take the reins. He has been groomed for a head coaching position in the NFL his entire life. He is not under a lot of pressure to win this game, as he is a significant road dog. We expect his team will play tough and hard for him. The Broncos appeared to have been ready for a change at the head coach position, as Shanahan was burned out last season, and it started to show in 2007.This line has steamrolled out of control. The pundits are saying that the Broncos are in for a terrible season and some are even calling the Bengals a ”dark horse.” Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. Grab this 3’ and check out the price on the moneyline.
MTi’s FORECAST: Denver 17 CINCINNATI 16
Newsletter Totals Play
3-Star Washington at NY Giants UNDER 37’
The Redskins are 0-6 in their last six season openers,staying under by an avrage of 11.0 ppg. The average final score in these six games has been 13.3 to 13.0 ppg. We see no reason for this to change here.The Redskins are 0-11-2 as a single-digit road dog vs a divisional opponent when they face a non-divisional opponent next week. Last season, Washington was 0-5 OU in this situation, staying under by a whopping 15.2 ppg.More specifically, these two are 0-9 OU since 2000 in New York. Over the past four seasons, the Redskins have scored a total of six points in the second half vs the Giants in New York. It is also worth mentioning that the Redskins are 0-9 OU (-9.9 ppg) on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing at home.The re-signing of DeAngelo Hall and the big free-agent signing of Albert Haynesworth has demonstrated the Redskins’ commitment to defense this season. Take these two
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 17 Washington 13
Squarepicks
3* Baltimore -13 +102
3* NY Giants -6.5 -104
Dr. Bob
Just 1 NFL Best Bet for week 1, which is Cincinnati (-4) for 2-Stars at -4 or less.
2* CINCINNATI (-4.0) 27 Denver 16
Denver had more than their share of off season troubles and they appear to be worse off for it. The firing of head coach Mike Shanahan was a questionable decision seeing as Shanahan led a team with a horrible defense to an 8-8 record and new coach Josh McDaniels had issues with star quarterback Jay Cutler and leading receiver Brandon Marshall. Cutler was traded to Chicago for lesser quarterback Kyle Orton while Brandon Marshall has been a malcontent during the preseason and was just cleared to play. Marshall actually isn't important, as he averaged a sub-par 7.0 yards per pass thrown to him last season while the rest of the wide receivers averaged 7.2 ypa. Orton is certainly a downgrade at quarterback and Denver probably won't run as well as Shanahan's zone blocking offenses did during his tenure. I rate the Broncos at 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively, which is a huge drop from last season's high rating (+0.8 yppl). The Broncos defense, however, should be better after rating at 0.9 yppl worse than average in 2008. Top defensive player CB Champ Bailey was injured for much of last season and should bounce back while the addition of CB Andre Goodman, who allowed just 6.4 yards per pass in Miami last season, will also lead to a better pass defense. Denver also signed an over the hill Brian Dawkins, who made it to the Pro Bowl last season on reputation rather than performance, which was just average (although still an upgrade). I still think Denver will be worse than average in pass defense and the run defense can't be any worse than it was last year (5.2 ypr allowed) and should be better based on regression to the mean (even though no obvious upgrade's were made). I rate Denver's defense at just 0.3 yppl worse than average this season, which is a huge improvement.
The Bengals are a team on the rise this season with star quarterback Carson Palmer back behind center. Palmer looked good in limited preseason action and top target Chad Ochocinco is motivated this season after taking last year off (he played, but not really). Deep play receiver Chris Henry is also back in good graces and Palmer should post better than average numbers. The rushing attack was bad last year and should still be a problem, but Cincy looks like an average offensive team overall and could be better if Palmer regains his pro bowl form. Either way the offense is much better than last year. Cincinnati is also going to be improved on defense as long as they stay healthy. The Bengals were hurt by injuries to LB Keith Rivers and numerous injuries in the secondary but still allowed just 5.2 yppl and were 0.2 yppl better than average. The run defense was especially good (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team) and it should be better this season with emerging star DT Pat Sims in the lineup the entire season. Sims was added to the roster in week 6 and the Bengals became a brink wall against the run when he entered the starting lineup in week 11. From week 6 on Cincy allowed just 3.7 ypr adn they gave up just 3.5 ypr from week 11 on. The pass defense, meanwhile, should be solid with everyone healthy, as the young secondary continues to mature.
My ratings favor Cincinnati by 9 1/2 points in this game if all of my assumptions are correct and Denver applies to a negative 15-37 ATS game 1 indicator. I'd still favor Cincy by 7 points even if Denver is average defensively, so there is certainly value on the underrated Bengals here. I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 (-1.15 odds or less) or better.
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: Washington +6.5
Atlanta -4
Tampa Bay +6
Arizona -6
Pointwise Phone Service
4* N Orleans
3* New England, NY Giants, Minnesota, Cincy
2* G Bay, Baltimore
Strike Point Sports
5-Unit Game of the Week. Take Cincinnati -4 over Denver
3-Unit Play. Take Atlanta -4 over Miami
3-Unit Play. Take New York Giants -6.5 over Washington
Indian Cowboy
5 Unit Play. Over 44 Jets @ Texans
The Jets offense looked great over the offseason and that is primarily due to the wealth of quality quarterbacks they have. The total on this game has gone up slightly since its release and rightfully so. I suspect the Jets will be active dogs in this contest and put up 20+ points and in the same token, I expect a strong Houston offense against a porous Jets defense. But, more importantly, the Jets have a great shot at winning this game outright and I suspect they will be game. I look for the Jets to lead and early and help push this game over the posted total as Schaub and company will be playing catchup. The Over is 5-2-1 for the Jets when they are dogs by this margin and the Over is 6-0 for the Texans in September.
3 Unit Play. Under 43.5 Dolphins @ Falcons
Its tough for me to say this as a Falcons fan, but this is a dangerous game for Atlanta. The Dolphins looked great over the preseason. I know the preseason doesn’t count for much to must, but the Dolphins went 4-0 and their defense looked solid holding opponents to just 13 total points on the road. This coaching staff and management stresses defense relentlessly. I’m not a big fan of the Dolphins offense as much as I am of their defense, but I suspect this game likely dips under the posted total. With the Dolphins offense still not having a wealth of playmakers and the Dolphins defense expected to carry the mantle, I like this game going under in Hotlanta as scoring will likely be at a premium.
3 Unit Play. Cleveland Browns +4
I think the public is being set up for a burial here. With 77% riding the coat tails of Minnesota, I think the Browns likely get it done. Cleveland looked against Tennessee and Detroit at home and frankly, they looked against Chicago on the road. It is a battle of the Minnesota defense vs. the Cleveland offense. This game can go many ways, but at the end of the day, it is the biggest public fade of the day and now as the line stands at four. I like the Browns to cover here and have an outside shot at winning outright. I love public fades and usually I will be on at least one such fade. These two teams are familiar with each other and with having this game as a home opener and the line refusing to budge beyond the 4 point margin here, I look for the Browns to indeed make an upset. Remember, regardless of which quarterback takes over for Cleveland, they will be on a short leash and I expect efficient offensive drives. In the end, Cleveland likely loses by a field goal and I think the four points become significant here.
3 Unit Play. San Francisco 49ers +6.5
I think Arizona looked dismal during the preseason. With San Fran ending last season extremely strong, and making more strides this offseason, I expect them to start off very well in this division opener. This is a game that I believe San Fran can win outright and I think the points are an added bonus. I like the 49ers plus the points as remember, this team lost in a last second possession in this same field last time and they are certainly capable of winning this game outright. Arizona was outscored 53-100 during the preseason. This is a chance for San Fran to start the season fresh and frankly, I would not be a bit surprised if Singletary and company win this division or make the Wild Card this year.
Vegas Sports Informer
6 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati -4 over Denver
(Game of the Month)The big advantage for the Bengals in this game will be the QB play. I will take a healthy Carson Palmer over Kyle Orton any day of the week. Cincinnati is 3-1 SU & ATS in Week 1. Denver is 7-21-1 ATS against AFC teams. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
2 Unit Play. Take NY Giants -6½ over Washington
In a huge NFC East matchup of two teams with strong defenses and rather conservative approaches on the other side of the ball (both teams will want to establish the run), this game will likely come down to the better QB. I’m taking Eli Manning to have a better game then Jason Campbell. New York is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against Washington.
4 Unit Play. Take Green Bay -3½ over Chicago
A huge matchup in Cheese Country as division rivals kickoff in Week #1. We like the home team Packers in this one as Aaron Rogers should be able to throw against the Bears defense. Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC North teams. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC North teams. The Bears have struggled in Green Bay going 5-11-1 ATS in Cheese Country.
2 Unit Play. Take Over 43 San Diego at Oakland
I’m looking for a huge offensive bang from the San Diego Chargers Monday night against the Oakland Raiders. San Diego should be able score in the 30 range against the Black/Silver and if the Raiders can hit double-digits we will be happy. San Diego is 7-0 O/U in the month of September. Oakland is 4-1 O/U in Week 1.
Allen Eastman
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Denver at Cincinnati
I think that this number is a shade high here for a Week 1 game. Denver’s starting quarterback situation is still very uncertain. Kyle Orton has a dislocated finger and is going to try to play. But if he re-injures the finger or is ineffective than Denver will have no choice but to try to pound the ball on the ground. They will likely try that anyway. We don’t know what the Broncos are going to do with Brandon Marshall and I think that the Bengals offense is an equally large question mark because of their offensive line. I just don’t expect either team to be sharp and there are too many question marks here to think that either team will come out and be very sharp offensively.
4-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5) over Carolina
I think that it is all starting to come together for the Eagles. They are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and are ready to put everything that they worked on this preseason into practice. They won’t have to worry about the Mike Vick distraction this week and they are getting Brian Westbrook back. There are just too many weapons on this Eagles offense against an up-and-down Panthers offense. The Eagles had the No. 3 defense in the league last year and I think that they can hold down a Panthers offense that did not look good this preseason. The Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
3-Unit Play. Take Dallas (-6) over Tampa Bay
I’m following the large line movement on this game. Dallas has jumped from -3 to -6 on this line and I think that there is good reason for that. Coach Wade Phillips and a lot of the Cowboys know that this is their last chance to try to make a deep playoff push here. I think that without the off-field distractions that have held them down over the past two years that they will actually be a better team. They won by 20 in a similar game last year on the road against the Browns. Here they are facing a Tampa Bay team that is rebuilding and one that I don’t think will have enough to slow the Cowboys down.
7-Unit Play. Take Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago
This is my Game of Month. Green Bay starts the season at home against the Bears and I think that they are going to blow out their big rivals. Green Bay is a team that lost a lot of close games last year and I think all of that has helped to make them a better overall team this year. The Packers have been one of the best teams this preseason and they look like they have made the right move by making the switch to the 3-4 defense. Chicago has been up and down this preseason and they are putting a lot on the arm of Jay Cutler. This is his first game in Lambeau and the last time the Bears were here they lost 37-3. Green Bay has dominated this series. They are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings and I think that they cover once more. I have been in contact with a lot of sharp bettors and they have this pegged as their top game.
2-Unit Play. Take New Orleans (-13) over Detroit
Detroit is coming off the only 0-16 season in NFL history and now they are going on the road with a rookie quarterback. New Orleans beat the Lions on the road 42-7 last year and I think that they might even be stronger this time around. Detroit’s defense did not look good this preseason and Drew Brees and his offense should have a big day against the Lions. Detroit will have to wait another week to try to break their winless streak.
3-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+6.5) over Arizona
I’m trailing the line movement on this game. The defending NFC champions started as a full touchdown favorite. But the line has gotten off of that key number of 7 over the last week or so which tells me that there is a reverse line movement going on. The Niners only lost by five points last year in their trip to Arizona and I think that this game will be much more low scoring. This game should be decided by a field goal and our points should hold up.
Dave Busk
6 Unit Pick Take Jacksonville (+7) over Indianapolis
Last year Jacksonville early on was touted as being a good team and from the start it wasn’t good with a teammate being shot and paralyzed and that seem to carry over to the season where they lost their first two games before walking into Indianapolis and walking out on the winning side as a four point road pup’s. This team had a ton of injuries in 2008 mainly to the offensive line and they just seem to falter. This team is still good and I think catching the Colts at the best time, the Colts are dealing with some injuries on the defensive side of the ball most notable with safety Saunders out. They also will be starting a rookie cornerback along with breaking in two new coordinator’s and a new head coach. I don’t think the Colts are “season ready” ! The Jag’s are a live team in 2009 and very live here on Sunday.
4 Unit Pick Take Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago
On paper both teams look like they have improved. The Bears went out and stole the show aquiring Jay Cutler but haven’t really improved any where else to get this team as good as the press they get. Don’t expect their defense to be what it has been in the past as they’re starting to age. The Pack quietly have become a threat in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal throwing over 4000 yards last year and lit it up in the preseason. They brought in a new defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and with all the talk around the division with the new quarterbacks seems to have deflected the pressure that surround this team last year with Farve leaving. Sunday night will be a statement game.
1 Unit Pick Take Houston (-4.5) over the New York Jets
The Jets made some big news in the off season with hiring new head coach Rex Ryan and the drafting of high profile quarteback Mark Sanchez. Tough spot here for Sanchez here as he makes his first pro start on the road vs. a quietly improving Texan team. Houston is improving on both sides of the ball and I think head coach Gary Kubiak hard work will show in 2009. This is a winnable game for the Texans, one that they wouldn’t win in the past but this team is growing and playing a team that in some ways resembles them a couple of years ago. The oddsmaker wouldn’t hang my number in week one because of Houston’s past, but I think this number should be Texans (-6) get on it.
Al Demarco
15 Dime Green Bay
The Kingmaker
1-Unit Houston Texans -4
igz1 sports
4* Minnesota -3.5 (-110)
4* Jacksonville +7 (-110)
4* St Louis vs Seattle Over 40.5
3* Miami +4.5 (-110)
3* Baltimore -13 (-110)
3* Cinncinnati -4 (-110)
3* Washington vs NY Giants Under 37
Andre Gomes
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Washington at NY Giants
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The Giants are listed as favorites to win the competitive NFC East, but in my opinion they will have a tough time to confirm this status and these struggles will start in week 1.
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Without WR Plaxico Burress, the Giants didn't make any substantial upgrade in their receiving corps and unless Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and first-round pick Hakeem Nicks enjoy some improbable big seasons, the Giants once again will run the football! Yes, they have horses in the backfield in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, but at the same time, they look a pretty one-dimensional offensive team and they will struggle against a good Redskins' defensive team.
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The Redskins were seventh in run defense, seventh in pass defense and fourth in total defense last season. Only five teams allowed less points than them! In the offseason, Washington added pro bowler Albert Haynesworth to their line and now they look even better. He is a defensive tackle, but he still mustered 8 1/2 sacks of his own last year and the Redskins will improve their lack of pressure on opposing passers - tied for 28th in sacks and 28th in takeaways last season! Also with him in the field the he is a guy that demands a constantly double coverage from the opponent and that's why the Giants will have a tough time to put points in the scoreboard.
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Obviously the Giants are a great defensive team as well, no question about that, but we have some important mismatchs favoring the Redskins. QB Jason Campbell didn't make a great season last year, but many forget the fact that he was learning a new system and this takes time to adjust. Anyone who thinks a quarterback can get the hang of that system in Year 1 should go back and watch old tapes of the some QB Superstars in their first season. Regardless the display of Campbell, the Skins' play a conservative playbook and they are less prone to huge offensive dropdown plays. Like the Giants, I expect them to be a run oriented team. However I cannot ignore the fact that the Giants secondary is banged up for this contest. That's because starting cornerback Aaron Ross and valuable reserve cornerback Kevin Dockery are sidelined with hamstring injuries, so the Redskins with wideouts Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly will give Campbell more reliable options in the passing attack in addition to the solid Chris Cooley and Santana Moss and look them to give some problems to the Giants.
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This game is pretty similar to the Steelers/Titans, two good defensive teams that will make the offenses work hard to score. I was with the Titans last Thursday and for this contest, we have in a similar situation and that's why I'm taking the Redskins in here.
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Single Dime Play on Washington Redskins (+7) (BUY THE HALF POINT!!!)