SIXTH SENSE
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BEST BETS
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3% CAROLINA +2.5 May see better numbers here by waiting
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3% CINCINNATI -4
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3% TAMPA BAY +6 May see better numbers here by waiting
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3% NY GIANTS –6.5
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3% GREEN BAY –3.5
ATLANTA –4 Miami 43.5
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Miami threw the ball very well last year when they chose to do so. They averaged 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl overall. On defense, they were just average, allowing 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Atlanta was actually just average running the ball last year. They averaged 4.4ypr but that was against teams allowing 4.4ypr. They averaged 153 yards rushing because they ran the ball 55% of the time. They were very good throwing the ball when they wanted to. They averaged 7.4yps against 6.3yps. On defense, they allowed teams to rush for 4.9ypr against teams averaging just 4.3ypr. They were above average against the pass, allowing just 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl overall. Miami qualifies in a 49-30-1 week one situation. That situation isn’t strong enough to make a play on them. Numbers only favor Atlanta by two points and predict just 38 points based on last years numbers. Miami was 5-1 as a road dog last year and their games totaled 41 or more points in five of those six games. Atlanta home games totaled 42 or more in seven of their eight games last year. The Atlanta defense has a lot of new faces and didn’t look that good in preseason. I am going to lean towards Miami and the over simply because of the Atlanta defense. ATLANTA 24 MIAMI 21
BALTIMORE –13 Kansas City 36
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The Ravens offense improved last year with Joe Flacco at the helm. They were actually slightly above average throwing the ball, which was a dramatic improvement over the year before. They averaged 6.0yps against 5.9yps. Overall on offense they averaged 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense, as usual, they were outstanding, allowing 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. The KC offense was horrible from the passing side last year, averaging just 5.4yps against 6.2yps. I expect them to improve over time with Todd Haley now running the show in KC. The rushing offense was very good, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr. Overall they averaged 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense was terrible, allowing 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. If the defense doesn’t improve it will be a long season in KC. Baltimore will simply take away the run and come with fierce pressure on Matt Cassell or whoever is playing QB for KC. Baltimore qualifies in a 93-56-5 week one situation but they don’t qualify in the best parts of that situation. Numbers favor Baltimore by 11.5 and actually predict about 44 points. Baltimore didn’t allow more than 13 points in any home game last year. KC, however, lost only two road games last year by more than 10 points. Too early in the season for KC to have all their ducks in a row and this is a tough environment to play in so early in the season with a new regime. BALTIMORE 31 KANSAS CITY 13
Philadelphia –2.5 CAROLINA 43.5
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I simply don’t understand the line in this game. Philadelphia was a nice team on offense last year but actually nothing too spectacular. They averaged just 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr and 6.2yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense they were very solid, allowing 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. Carolina was outstanding on offense last year, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.3yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. They were average defending the run last year, allowing 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr but above average defending the pass, allowing just 5.7yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Overall from the line of scrimmage, they were about even with Philadelphia. Philly’s offensive line is in shambles, they lost an aging but experienced safety in Dawkins and lost their middle linebacker Bradley for the season. The defense looked extremely poor in the preseason. Carolina looked terrible in the preseason as well but didn’t play with many of their starters during the preseason. They return nearly everyone from last years above average team. Carolina qualifies in a 45-13-1 week one situation, which is also 13-2 when it plays on home dogs. My numbers favor Carolina by three points and predict about 46 points. This number keeps rising in Philly’s favor, which is just fine with me. If we wait long enough we should be able to get three points in this game. Carolina was 8-0 SU during the regular season last year. They scored at least 24 points in their last seven home games last year. Their last eight games overall totaled at least 40 points, with seven of those eight totaling at least 46 points. Carolina is a run heavy team, running around 54% of the time, while Philly throws the ball nearly 60% of the time. If Carolina gets ahead Philly has the capability to get some late scores with their passing attack. Carolina should put up plenty of points at home with their offense. I like Carolina with all their value and the over in this game. I’ll probably stay off the over simply because both defense’s are capable of being above average but I think there will be plenty of points here. CAROLINA 30 PHILADELPHIA 23
CINCINNATI –4 Denver 42.5
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Denver was a mess last year and appears to be this year as well. The Broncos were very good on offense, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr and 7.1yps against 6.4yps for a total of 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The rushing numbers are impressive considering they went through about 100 running backs last year due to injury. On defense, they were as bad they were good on offense. They allowed 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is making a change to the 3-4 but I question whether they have the right personnel to make those changes. The defensive line may be terrible this year, which is what sets up the 3-4 defense. On offense they traded Jay Cutler. We’ll soon find out if it is the system or the players with Kyle Orton now at the controls. They have plenty of talent on offense with their offensive line, two very good receivers and a good rookie running back. Cincinnati was average on defense last year, which is actually a good sign. They allowed 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. They were terrible on offense simply because they lost Carson Palmer for about three fourths of the season. They averaged just 4.3yps against 5.8yps. They should change dramatically this year with Palmer now back. They averaged 6.8yps each of the two seasons previous to last year. Chad Johnson and Chris Henry along with Coles who they picked up in the off-season should provide an above average offense again in Cincinnati. Cincinnati qualifies in a week one situation, which is 57-20-3. Cincinnati won their last three games to end the season last year and was 3-1-1 their last four games at home. Denver lost their last three games last year and also totaled 40 or more points (both teams) in every road game last year. My numbers actually would favor Denver by 1.5 points based on last year’s numbers but those numbers aren’t fair because both teams have changed dramatically during the off-season. I rely more on my situations than the numbers, especially in the first week of the season. I like Cincinnati in this spot. CINCINNATI 27 DENVER 17
Minnesota –3.5 CLEVELAND 40
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If you need your week one fundamental play for this week, this is it. Minnesota rushes the ball well, stops the rush well, and Cleveland can’t stop the rush. Minnesota averaged 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr last year while allowing just 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr. They were below average throwing the ball, but that should improve with Brett Favre now at quarterback. They were also above average with their pass defense last year. Cleveland was horrible throwing the ball last year, averaging just 4.6yps against 5.7yps and 4.3yppl against 4.9yppl overall. On defense they allowed 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t see that getting much better this year. In Cleveland’s last six games last year, they failed to score more than 10 points in each of those games. They won’t win or cover many games with those types of performances on offense this year. And, I don’t see how they score too many points against this Vikings defense in their first game. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by five points and predict about 38 points. MINNESOTA 24 CLEVELAND 14
HOUSTON –4.5 NY Jets 44
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A good match up in week one here. A strong Houston offense, which figures to only get better with another year of experience for the key contributors faces what should be a very good Jets defense this year. On the other side, a week Houston defense faces what looks to be a very good rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez, who will probably also make plenty of mistakes as he learns on the job. Houston averaged 7.3yps against 6.0yps last year and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allowed 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr and 6.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl overall. Those types of defensive numbers will allow even the most inexperienced quarterback to have some success against you. The Jets offense faded at the end of the year with the injury to Brett Favre. They did average 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr but the passing offense suffered with the injury, finishing up only averaging 5.9yps against 6.4yps. Overall they averaged 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they were very solid against the rush, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers from last year would favor the Jets by one point and predict about 53 points. I would look to go over the total here but Houston only scored 13 points against Tennessee and Baltimore last year, but did put up 31 points against Chicago. Rex Ryan will throw plenty of packages against Matt Schaub and company and it’s too early to tell what that will bring. That along with the uncertainty of what we will get out of Mark Sanchez is enough for me to pass until I know more. I do like the Jets in a close game because of their ability to run the ball and stop the run. The Jets should be able to throw the ball enough to stay in this game. HOUSTON 24 NY JETS 21
INDIANAPOLIS –7 Jacksonville 44.5
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Good series history here between these two. Indy really suffered running the ball last year, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr. As usual, they passed the ball very well but it was below average compared to previous seasons. They averaged 6.8yps against 6.2yps when in previous years they had averaged 7.0yps and 7.5yps. The defense was actually pretty good last year, allowing just 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl, which is good for an Indy defense. Jacksonville struggled last year with numerous injuries to their offensive line. They ended up being average on offense, averaging 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. But, on defense, they were sieve like against the pass, allowing 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers actually favor the Colts by 13 points and predict about 43 points. Indy has won by seven or less in this series (lost some of those games as well) in six of the past seven games played here. Their other win was by 10 points. Jacksonville struggled to end the season last year, losing six of their last seven games. Numbers favor Indy but series history suggest it will be closer. I’ll call it a seven point game and let the line make the decision. INDIANAPOLIS 24 JACKSONVILLE 17
NEW ORLEANS –13 Detroit 49
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Poor Detroit, losers of 17 straight games and now they get NO to open the season. A team that defeated the Lions 42-7 late in the season last year. Lions are a new team this year with a new rookie quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who looks good but will make plenty of mistakes along the way as he learns on the job. They will probably try and run the ball a little more to take some of that pressure off of Stafford but if/when they fall behind in this game, that strategy won’t work too well. The Lions were horrible last year throwing the ball, averaging just 5.3yps against 6.0yps, with much of that due to a poor offensive line. Not sure how much that has changed this year. They were unbelievably bad on defense, allowing 5.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.8yps against 6.4yps and 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has made plenty of changes and should get much better with those changes. They have brought in plenty of veteran experience. And, even though some of those may be over the hill players, they still represent an upgrade over what they had. NO was sensational on offense last year, averaging 7.7yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense was also average, which is about what this teams needs, allowing 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Greg Williams takes over the defense and will bring plenty of pressure to force turnovers and get the ball back into the offenses hands. NO qualifies in a week one situation, which is 93-56-5 but they don’t qualify in the better parts of that situation. Numbers favor NO by 15 points and predict about 38 points. Detroit allowed 31 or more points in five of eight road games last year and 27 or more in seven of eight road games. They also scored 21 or more points in their last five road games. NO scored at least 24 points in every home game last year and at least 27 in six of their last seven games overall. Although there is value to the over, the number is a little too high for me to play the over. Enough things have to go right to win and with a Detroit offense that was well below average last year, that is enough to keep me off the over. NEW ORLEANS 37 DETROIT 21
Dallas –6 TAMPA BAY 39
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Plenty of changes in TB this year with a new head coach, new quarterback and plenty of changes on defense. TB was below average on offense last year, averaging just 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They were above average on defense, however, allowing just 5.9yps against 6.6yps and 5.2yppl against 5.6yppl. The Cowboys faded down the stretch again last year but they averaged 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl overall. On defense they were also above average, allowing 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. TB qualifies in the same situation Carolina qualifies in, which is 45-13-1 and 13-2 as a home dog. Numbers actually only make Dallas a one point favorite and predict about 45 points. Dallas has the better talent, can put pressure on the quarterback and Leftwich doesn’t move real well behind center. TB also wants to throw the ball down field, which could play into the Cowboy’s hands. But, this line is too high and I’m hoping by waiting we can see a seven before kick off. Dallas was just 1-5 SU in their last six road games last year and their only win was by just four points. TB was 6-0 SU at home last year before losing their last two home games. They also collapsed at the end of the year, losing their last four games. This is one of those game where if TB wins SU I look smart and if they get blown out I look like a fool. Such is the nature of this business but I like the value we are getting with TB and I never have a problem going against a significant line move like the one we are seeing in this game. TAMPA BAY 23 DALLAS 21
ARIZONA –6 San Francisco 46
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Another match up with plenty of good series history. SF came on after Mike Singletary became the head coach last year. Overall, SF averaged 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl and allowed 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Those numbers were actually slightly worse than before Singletary took over but the biggest change was the reduction in turnovers. While their overall net in turnovers didn’t improve, it was because they forced fewer turnovers with Singletary but also drastically reduced the amount of times they were turning the ball over. Arizona was well below average running the ball last year, gaining just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr but they were great throwing the ball, gaining 7.1yps against 6.2yps. Overall they were 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense was solid against the rush, allowing just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but below average against the pass, allowing 6.4yps against 5.9yps. Overall, it was 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. SF qualifies in a week one situation, which is 66-23-3 but Arizona qualifies in a week one situation, which is 45-13-1. Numbers favor Arizona by just five points and predict about 54 points. SF wants to run the ball and control the clock. Singletary was 4-1 ATS as a road dog last year and Arizona has not won by more than seven points in the last six years playing here. In 2005 they played in Mexico City. The fewest amount of points these two have combined for here since 2002 is 53 points so the past history lines up with the predicted numbers as well. Number is a little too high for me, knowing what SF wants to do with the ball but I will certainly lean to the over and the dog in this game. ARIZONA 27 SAN FRANCISCO 26
NY GIANTS –6.5 Washington 37
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Washington was an average team on offense last year, rushing for 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr but passing for just 5.5yps against 5.9yps. Overall they averaged 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense they were above average, allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They should be very good on defense again this year with the addition of Albert Haynesworth. The Giants were terrific running the ball last year, averaging 5.0ypr against 4.0ypr. They also averaged 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.0yppl overall. While Plaxico Burress was gone after week 12, the offensive numbers didn’t change that much. With an off-season to reestablish their passing offense along with the drafting of Hakeem Nicks, I expect the Giants to be able to move the ball through the air. On defense, they allowed 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl and get back one of their best defensive lineman this year as well. The Giants qualify in a week one situation, which is 45-13-1. Numbers favor the Giants by 11 points and predict about 38 points. The Giants have won four of the last five games here between these two by six or more points. The last nine games played here between these two have totaled 36 or less points. Always hate laying points against a good defense like this but the Giants have played well here against Washington and actually spanked the Redskins in Washington last year without Burress as well. Washington suffered plenty of injuries late in the year last year, which led to their demise. I’ll trust the situations and the numbers in a tough battle and play the Giants in this game. NY GIANTS 27 WASHINGTON 10
SEATTLE -8.5 St. Louis 40.5
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Seattle was a mess on offense last year as they began the year with no receivers and ended the year without Matt Hasselbeck. They averaged just 5.1yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. That should improve greatly this year with Hasselbeck back and the addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh. On defense, they were below average as well but I expect improvement on that side of the ball as well. They allowed 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The Rams were a mess and I don’t see that improving much this year. They averaged just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allowed 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.3yps against 6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Seattle by 7.5 points and predict about 39 points. St. Louis has lost four straight here and three of the last four they have lost by at least 15 points. Five of the last six played here have totaled at least 46 points with the lone game not totaling that much still seeing 39 points being scored. Total is coming down for some reason. I will lean with Seattle and the over based on series history. SEATTLE 27 ST LOUIS 16
GREEN BAY –3.5 Chicago 46.5
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Great rivalry, which only should get better this year with the quality quarterbacks in this division this year. Chicago was terrible on offense last year, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.5yps against 6.3yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, they played well from the line of scrimmage, allowing just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The Packers offense performed well last year throwing the ball, averaging 6.6yps against 6.3yps but did tail off at the end of the year. The defense had numerous injuries and allowed 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl overall. That defensive collapse led to the hiring of Dom Capers and a switch to the 3-4 defense. The jury is still out but it appears this defense will play into the hands of the Packers personnel. During the preseason they caused at least four turnovers in each of the first three games, causing 13 total. Granted two of those games were against Buffalo and Cleveland but this defense looks like it will create some opportunities for getting the ball back into the offenses hands. On offense they looked unstoppable during the preseason with 12 or 13 possessions in the first three games, scoring touchdowns on nine of those possessions and never having to punt. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Green Bay by two points and predict about 48 points. Chicago had won four straight here before losing badly last year, 37-3. Chicago was 0-3 ATS their last three road games last year, allowing 31 or more points in each of those games. Green Bay scored at least 21 or more points in seven of eight home games last year and 13 straight home games in Green Bay have totaled at least 43 points. Jay Cutler takes over in Chicago but with limited receiving corps. The Packers could surprise a lot of people this year and are the sexy pick, which is never good. I like their offense a lot and have to believe they will be way ahead of the Bears offense this early in the season. If the defense can play any where close to what they did in the preseason, they should win this game. With Chicago not having faced the Packers defense since moving to the 3-4, it may be tough for them to prepare for everything they will see. While I don’t have any situations on this game and last years numbers don’t provide any value with GB, I see GB winning this game easily and only have to lay a short number. I just don’t see how Chicago will keep up with the Packers offense in this game. Total is a little too high for me to take the over. GREEN BAY 33 CHICAGO 23
NEW ENGLAND –10.5 Buffalo 47.5
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Buffalo looked absolutely terrible this preseason, especially on offense. Last year they averaged just 5.9yps against 6.5yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense was average, allowing 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. NE lost Tom Brady in the first game last year but still managed to win 11 games, averaging 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They will get much better on offense this year. The defense was just average allowing 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. NE qualifies in a week one situation, which is 93-56-5 but they don’t qualify in the better parts of that situations. Numbers favor NE by 10 and predict 41 points. Buffalo has lost eight straight games to NE in NE. They also haven’t scored more than 17 points here over the last 10 years. Over those 10 years, eight of the ten games have totaled 37 or less points. NEW ENGLAND 27 BUFFALO 16
San Diego –9.5 OAKLAND 43
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Oakland Raider fans still await the arrival of Richard Seymour after NE dumped him off to NE for a first round draft pick. Raider fans also probably can’t wait for Al Davis to go. The Raiders averaged just 5.1yps against 6.3yps last year and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense they were above average against the pass, 6.4yps against 6.7yps, but below average against the run, 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. SD came on at the end of the season and ended up with very good passing numbers, averaging 7.7yps against 6.2yps but were well below average rushing the ball at 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr. Overall they averaged 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they were just average, allowing 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game and the numbers favor SD by just 6.5 points and predict about 41 points. SD has dominated this series having won five straight games here, including the last four by 10 or more points. It should be pointed out SD led by just three points last year but broke a long touchdown run trying to run out the clock to win by 10 points. I’ll lean ever so slightly to SD in this game. SAN DIEGO 24 OAKLAND 13
Larry Ness
Insider Seahawks
25* GOY Giants
20* Perfect Storm Packers
20* Cowboys
15* Wipeout Vikings
15* Oddsmaker Error Carolina
Lenny Del Genio
Vegas Icon - Bengals
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Take San Francisco +6½ over Arizona Top Underdog Play.
This is just too many points to be laying for a divisional game considering the road team has dominated this series in recent years. The visitor has covered seven straight times in the last eight games (1 push) and the 49ers seem to be a different team under Coach Mike Singletary. The 49ers should have beaten the Red Birds in Arizona last year but some questionable play calling by former OC Mike Martz did them in. That game left a bitter taste in their mouth and expect them to take out their revenge this Sunday. The underdog is 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and expect this one to go down to the wire as well, decided by a late field goal. Arizona 27, San Francisco 24.
5 Unit Play. Take Green Bay -3 ½ over Chicago Game of the Week.
The Packers looked impressive during the preseason and their first string dominated the opponents. Aaron Rogers was darn near perfect and it appears that he has emerged as a big-time player in this league. His counterpart is solid as well in Jay Cutler; however, I am not sold that he has the weapons around him to be successful. WR Devin Hester has yet to impress me and I feel Cutler will become frustrated with his lack of playmakers around him. The Packers won the last meeting in Green Bay, 37-3, and had a chance to sweep the series in Chicago but missed a late field goal. The Bears were ranked 30th in the league in pass defense last year and that does not bode well against the best receiving corps in the league. This Packers make a big statement and we also collect big in the process as well. Green Bay 31, Chicago 13.
4 Unit Play. Take San Diego -9½ over Oakland Top Monday Night Play.
The Raiders are a mess and I am not sold on JaMarcus Russell as a quarterback in this league. The Chargers started out slow last season and they were extremely lucky to make the playoffs, as Denver completely collapsed. Because of that they will not take this game lightly and expect them to win it by double digits. The Raiders got blown out by Denver on MNF in the opening week last year, 41-14, and I believe that team had more talent then this team. Nobody can understand why the Raiders selected Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh overall pick. The Chargers won both of the games last year by double digits and this one will follow suit as well.
The Boss
500% Untouchable Play - Atlanta
300% 3 team BLOWOUT parlay (Atlanta, New England, San Diego)
100% Silent Assassins (Cincy, New Orleans, Seattle)
Ron Raymond
Cleveland +3.5
Washington / NY Under
Detroit +14
JEFFERSON-SPORTS
SAN FRANCISCO +7 -130
Squarepicks
3* Baltimore -13
3* NY Giants -6.5
Steven Budin
25 DIME RELEASE - DALLAS
Gamblers Ally
10 units Cleveland Browns
3 units KC Chiefs
BEN BURNS
NFC North TOM
I'm playing on Chicago and Green Bay to finish UNDER the total.
This o/u number has climbed since it first came out. The current line, which has climbed above the key number of 44, isn't the highest on the board - but its among the highest. For a Week 1 battle between a pair of bitter NFC North rivals, I believe that its too high. Granted, the Bears offense is expected to be improved this season. However, I also expect the GB defense to be better than it was last season. Looking at the history between these teams and we find that none of the last meetings have had an over/under line of greater than 44.5. Looking at last year's two games and we find that the o/u lines for those games were 43 (at GB in Nov.) and 40 (at Chi. in Dec.). Both games finished below the total. The first finished with 40 combined points, the second game had 37. While the Packers have been profitable to 'over' bettors overall in recent seasons, it should be noted that the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. As for the Bears, they've seen the UNDER go 10-6 on the road the past couple of seasons, including 3-2 when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The UNDER was 10-6 in Week 1 last season and we've already seen the Thurs. Night game of Week 1 finish below the total. The Bears and Colts combined for 42, an 'under.' The Packers were one of the few teams that did finish 'over' the total. However, that was because their game was against the Vikings and had an o/u line in the 30s. The teams still only combined for 43 points. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. *10 NFC North TOM
GOW
I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND.
Nearly everyone is pretty down on the Browns these days while many are sky-high on the Vikings. In my opinion, that public opinion has helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog Browns. Yes, the Vikings fans have reason to be optimistic this season. However, I'm still not convinced that signing Favre was the answer. Keep in mind that the aging veteran was brutal down the stretch. In fact, Favre's terrible play at the end of the season was one of the reasons that the Jets fired Coach Mangini. Coincidentally, Mangini just happens to be here in Cleveland now. Keep in mind that before Favre's collapse, Mangini was still considered (by many) to be a 'genius.'(He did guide the Jets to a 10-6 record in his first season there.) While it remains to be see how he'll fare here in Cleveland, I do expect Mangini to have his new team absolutely fired up for their home opener. I should also note that I like the decision to go with Quinn as the Browns starting QB. While preseason results should be taken with a grain of salt, for a team making some changes, I do pay at least a little attention to how they did in Game 3 - the game where the starters see the most time. Looking at the Browns NFLX Game 3 result and we find that the defeated the Titans by a score of 23-7. Quinn finished the game having gone 11/15 for 128 yards and a touchdown with 0 interceptions. While its been some time since the Browns won their opening game, they do have a 5-3 ATS record in September the past couple of seasons. They're also a profitable 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be surprised by an outright victory. *10 GOW
Tim Trushel
20* - Washington Redskins
Reg - Carolina Panthers
Reg - Cleveland Browns
ATS Consultants
7 Units Atlanta -4
6 Units Minnesota -3.5
5 Units Cincinnati -4.5
4 Units Chicago/Green Bay Over 46
GOLD SHEET LTS
1.5 UNITS BEARS / PACKERS OVER
1.0 UNIT MIAMI DOLPHINS