Hot Shot Sports
3* Sox / Angels Under
NorthCoast
PRO PLAYS OF WEEK
49'ers
Seahawks
Chris Jordan
1000♦ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Boy did I tussle with this one. And not because I was worried whether or not the Ravens would cover this game, but with the rating. I’m a staunch believer of money management, I really am. I don’t chase, I’m more conservative than I should be and I most certainly know how to build a bankroll rather than ruin one. I’m so confident in the Ravens’ chances today, I just can’t let an opportunity slip by right now, not with how much I am down on the Chiefs this season.
Let me start by saying that I think Todd Haley is going to fail miserably as a head coach in Kansas City. It’s not his time, this was not the place for him to come and rebuild and his offensive expertise certainly is not going to mesh with Matt Cassel the way people in BBQ country might believe. Things can’t be going to well, since he fired offensive coordinator Chan Gailey last week, right? He wants complete control, and he gets a chance to show his stuff against one of the toughest defenses in the league.
Granted, he did a great job in getting Arizona to the Super Bowl last season, and almost was part of a championship team, if not for Santonio Holmes’ tremendous catch in the corner of the end zone. But you know, you have to wonder just how great a job he actually did, as the Cardinals put up 23 points – nine of which came on field goals. And, he also had some world-class talent in Phoenix; with the Chiefs, he doesn’t even know if he’s starting Cassel. Quite frankly, if his prize catch during the off-season is a game-time decision, why even start him against a defense that boasts the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs … seriously? Cassel suffered an MCL strain in the team's third preseason game – two weeks ago – and you have to ask yourself: “Do I want my franchise ticket running around, avoiding this ferocious defense?”
If Cassel can't go, the starter for the Chiefs is probably going to be injury-plagued and inconsistent signal-caller Brodie Croyle, who has gone 0-8 as the Kansas City starter over the past two seasons. For the record, none of Kansas City’s quarterbacks played well during the preseason, in which the Chiefs scored an NFL-worst 42 points and scored just two offensive touchdowns.
I’m sorry, but again, I have to make it worth my while with this pick and go for the gusto with the Ravens, who have made some major changes of their own, in replacing defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now in New York, coaching the Jets. And while this could be conceivably a concern, you have to relax the anxiety since we’re talking about a veteran lineup that has been tight-knit for quite some time. Besides, when you have a guy like Lewis, you know the defense is coming in with the mentality it has something to prove immediately.
Now, that all being said … how do we cover this thing?
I’ve been a fan of Joe Flacco since he was with Delaware, believe it or not. I remember when he led his team to the championship against Appalachian State and made everyone aware of his talents. I called for him to be one of the best quarterbacks that will be drafted. Now the Ravens have a legitimate strong-armed quarterback who has familiar faces lining up wide – Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton – and one of the most rugged tight ends coming off the line in Todd Heap.
Surprisingly said, since it’s a rarity to talk about an offense in Baltimore, the outcome of this game depends solely on the Chiefs’ ability to defend. And there’s a new coach there too, as Haley has Clancy Pendergast trying to implement the popular 3-4 scheme to a defense that finished last in the NFL last season with a paltry 10 sacks. And against the run, the Chiefs finished a miserable 30th in the league a year ago.
Let’s wrap this up, cause the bottom line is this is a Kansas City offense that will fail to move the ball; an offense that no matter who is under center, is going to feel the heat with a relatively ‘green’ offensive line; a Kansas City defense that may have some positive moments but will also see Flacco come up with some big plays at the right time. The points will add up, that’s a given. In fact, I think the Ravens will get close to the 30s.
How’s about a 27-10 final? The Chiefs score late to make it respectable in a 17-point loss.
BIG AL
5* MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR
At 4:35 pm, in Game 2 of the Double Header, our MLB Total of the Year is on the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers 'under' the total.
Freddy Wills
4-Dime NFL Sunday Play of the Day!
Packers -4
Chris James Sports
4* Game of the Month - Green Bay Packers -4
3* Dallas Cowboys -5
2* SF 49ers +5.5
1* Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (Buy the hook)
JACK JONES
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15* New Orleans Saints -13.5
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Take the Saints at home over the Detroit Lions. While Detroit is hopeful to actually win a game this season, it won't be in week 1 at New Orleans. Rookie QB Matt Stafford gets the start for the Lions, and while he has a great go-to guy in wide receiver Calvin Johnson, the Lions offensive line is still one of the worst in the league, and Stafford could spend a lot of this game on his back. Offensively, the Saints will again be one of the best in the league, led by quarterback Drew Brees, last year's NFL offensive player of the year, who racked up an incredible 5,069 passing yards and 34 touchdowns last season. The Lions have improved on defense from a year ago, but they won't be able to stop this New Orleans offensive machine.
Cajun-Sports Executive Club
5* NFC Game of the Week
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5.5
The Dallas Cowboys open the 2009 campaign on the highway with a trip to Cigar City to face the relatively new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gone is HC John Gruden and cover-2 genius Monte Kiffin as his era came to an end when he accepted the DC job at the University of Tennessee where his son Lane is the head coach.
Both of these teams were 9-7 a year ago but the expectations for the current season are much different for each of them. The Cowboys have added and removed some personnel but the core is still there with the one exception, Terrell Owns departure for Buffalo which many believe helped this Cowboys team and they should now be ready to make a run. The Bucs on the other hand have a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball with a new coaching staff, QB, RB and an aging defensive secondary who had to learn an entirely new defensive scheme so there will be some growing pains this season in Tampa.
On offense QB Tony Romo has plenty of weapons with a strong stable of running backs including Marion Barber, Felix Jones who averaged an amazing 8.9 yards per carry on thirty carries last season before the injury bug got him and Tashard Choice. Even with Owens gone Romo still has viable targets in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton both should have solid seasons in 09.
The Dallas defense was hurt by the absence of CB Terrance Newman much of last season but he is now healthy and as we saw in the latter part of the year when he returned they are a very good defensive team with him in the lineup. Last season Dallas led the league with 59 sacks and that will be a problem for Bucs QB Leftwich who has a very slow delivery.
The Bucs cannot match the fundamental advantages the Boys have on them; their offense could be ok with QB Byron Leftwich and newly acquired RB Derrick Ward from the Giants but they are still not in the class of this Cowboys team. The fact the Bucs released their new OC Jeff Jagodzinski just two weeks ago doesn’t scream continuity among the ranks and certainly will make things harder to begin the season.
Defensively the Bucs have tons of questions none more apparent than an aging secondary that had to learn a new system and the loss of their heart and soul in LB Derrick Brooks. Their inability to cover during the preseason certainly didn’t go unnoticed by the Cowboys coaching staff and they will be looking to exploit that weakness on Sunday.
The Cowboys play solid defense, have a very good rushing attack and they can throw the ball around facing a team that is just “ok” in a couple of these areas and questionable at best in the others. Laying less than a TD even on the road should not be a problem for this Cowboys team against a Bucs squad that still has major questions on both sides of the ball.
The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS as a road favorite before playing at home in each of the next two weeks, 12-3 ATS before playing the Giants, and 6-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite. We also note that the Cowboys have won and covered their opener the last two seasons and have won and covered the last two versus the Bucs.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Cowboys win by 9.2 points over the Bucs and our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index also favors the road team by 9.9 points on Sunday in Tampa Bay. Lay the chalk with the Cowboys as they open for the third straight year with a win and cover.
Graded Selection: 5* Dallas Cowboys 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
4* Perfect Trio “Shocker”
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6
The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers square-off in the desert on Sunday afternoon. The Cards are coming off a surprising season winning the NFC and eventually losing in the Super Bowl to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 49ers didn’t have that type of season but they came on strong to end 2008 and have a promising future.
The 49ers begin their first full season under head coach Mike Singletary. After he took over last season they went 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS which was a complete turnaround from the first part of the season when they were only 2-5 SU/ATS. They got better as the season wore on going 5-2 SU to close out the year for new head man Mike Singletary.
These two teams met in San Francisco last season for their openers with the Cardinals coming away with a 23 to 13 win as 2.5 point favorites. Arizona was able to complete the season sweep but it was not an easy task in the desert as the Cards defense had to hold San Fran on the last play of the game at the goal line winning 29 to 24.
This series and game hold several key situations that point directly to a winner. We know the road team in this series is 5-3 SU but a very powerful 8-0 ATS. Super Bowl losers are 9-24 ATS in September and an amazing 0-9 ATS in the first week of the season. Arizona is 1-8 ATS during the month of September facing division foes seeking revenge. Mike Singletary is 4-1 ATS as an underdog and the 49ers are 6-0 ATS as division road dogs of nine or fewer points. The Cardinals are 2-14 ATS as a favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing on the road and 2-13 ATS as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Arizona’s offense is based on timing and it appeared to be off during the preseason and there defense came on at the end of last year but we believe they come back down to earth here and not play to that level on Sunday. The Cardinals ranked last in the league in rushing offense with only 73.6 yards per game. They must improve there if they hope to help their defense stay off the field.
San Francisco’s QB Shaun Hill does a good job of protecting the football and limiting mistakes, this will be crucial today if they hope to capture a win. He will have help from RB Frank Gore who has been a thorn in the side of the Cards defensive unit and from WR Isaac Bruce who had 61 receptions and was second only to Gore with seven touchdowns.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Cardinals win by 1.4 points and our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index favors the 49ers by 0.92 points over the Cards. The combination of fundamental factors, math model indicators and solid technical support for the visitor we will take the points here as the 49ers shock the defending NFC Champs and get the win in the desert on Sunday.
Graded Selection: 4* San Francisco 49ers 24 Arizona Cardinals 23
4* “Major” Total Play of the Week
Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Under 37
The New York Giants play host to the Washington Redskins in the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon. Both teams appear to have taken great strides to improve their defense, the Giants just return key players from injury while the Skins acquired big man Albert Haynesworth from the Titans and drafted Brian Orakpo in the first round from Texas.
For the Giants the loss of Plaxico has left them very slim in the WR department and the Skins just do not have the talent there either both teams will look to rush the ball and set up play action passes. This contest should come down to a defensive battle because that is where both teams have playmakers which will be able to control the tempo on both sides of the ball.
This series has been dominated by the under, the last four, five of the last six and seven of the last ten have all fallen below the posted total. Washington HC Jim Zorn’s team was 3-12-1 under last season and nothing has changed other than defensive additions which should translate into another solid year of unders.
The Redskins are 0-6 Under in their season opener, 6-25-3 Under as a dog versus a divisional opponent, 1-12-2 Under as a dog versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent, 0-9 Under on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing at home, 4-18-1 Under on the road when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season and The Redskins are 1-11 Under since October 05, 2008. The Giants are 3-17-1 Under as a home favorite on artificial turf when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks and 4-14 Under at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.
NFL Teams are 1-14-1 Under on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent, 2-16 Under as a dog versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent, 1-10-1 Under as a dog versus a divisional opponent before playing at home and 0-7 Under as a road dog versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent.
With series history on our side along with fundamental and technical support we will play this game to fall well below the posted total in the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon.
Graded Selection: 4* Washington Redskins / New York Giants UNDER 37
Power Plays of The Day
Minnesota Vikings -4
Dallas Cowboys -4.5
Green Bay Packers -4
Overthespread
40 Units Cowboys
30 Units Ravens
25 Units GB
Tony George
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San Francisco vs. Arizona
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The Niners always play the Cards tough. With the departure of Todd Haley as offensive coordinator and Boldwins absence due to injury or not 100%, I expect MIke Singletary to have this team ready to play tough, run the ball at Arizonas front four and make a serious game of this. AZ won by 10 and 5 last year, they year they went to Super Bowl, and the Niners with a weaker cast gave them a game both times. I was impressed in week 3 when the NFLX season culminates with starters playing a lot and San Fran beat Dallas, in Dallas. Arizonas defense is suspect, in week 3 they gave up 44 points to Green Bay. Arizona in general looked terrible in the preseason at 0-4. San Fran can score and keep it close, and may have an equal defense....always tough battle I am taking the points. Rookie RB Coffe looks good for San Fran ansd Issac Bruce at WR adds depth and a deep threat.
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Play 1 Unit on San Fran.
Evan Altemus
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Miami vs. Atlanta
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This selection is my strongest of opening week of the NFL. This game is a match-up of two rebound teams from a season ago. However, Miami had one of the weakest schedules, and they didn’t have dominant wins against the weakest opponents on their schedule. In fact, the true quality of this team was evident by them being a 3.5 point underdog at home against Baltimore in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Atlanta consistently improved throughout the season, and they played better and better against their divisional opponents as the season progressed. Atlanta’s offense is going to be very potent this season, with Matt Ryan having a full grasp of the offense. He also has all-pro tight end Tony Gonzalez to throw too as well this season. Essentially these are two teams going in opposite directions this season. Miami’s first string offense has looked absolutely anemic in the preseason, and I expect Atlanta’s defense to contain them enough, even though they are not going to be dominant this year. Look for the Falcons to absolutely dominate the Dolphins at home.
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4 UNIT SELECTION ATLANTA.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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Detroit vs. New Orleans
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For a number of different reasons I feel the value is on the home side as I expect the Saints to roll over the hapless Lions: David vs. Goliath here...except this time Goliath smashes David into smithereens! New Orleans was the most prolific offensive team in the NFL last season, leading the league with 28.9 points and 410.7 total yards per game. But the Saints missed the playoffs and finished last in the NFC South at 8-8, thanks in large part to five losses by three points or fewer. If the Saints are going to live up to their huge potential, Drew Brees has to be more consistent; the three-time Pro Bowler threw for 5,069 yards last season to become the second quarterback in NFL history to surpass the 5,000-yard mark. But he completed 60.1 % of his passes with 13 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in the Saints' eight losses, compared to 71.7 % with 21 TDs and three picks in the eight wins. The Lions will be looking for their first win in over a year when they travel to New Orleans with rookie QB Matt Stafford under center.Stafford has displayed flashes of promise in the preseason with his strong arm but also showed signs he's still a rookie. "I've had success and I've played poorly," he said. "You have to take each with a grain of salt." Without question the Lions are a work in progress and will be for the entire year as they still have major questions surrounding them on both sides of the ball. I look for the Saints to make this a "statement" game, and "statement" year, as Brees enters his fourth year and the team around him, on both offense and defense, has become a more co-hesive unit; in what will be a blowout, take the Saints!
Bob Balfe
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Miami vs. Atlanta
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The Dolphins took the league by storm last year with the Wildcat Offense, but opposing coaches had an offseason to deal with and defend against it. Atlanta has so many offensive weapons. Matt Ryan at home should be able to find his targets at will. Atlanta does have a young secondary, but if this game does indeed get into a shootout it clearly favors the Falcons. Look for Atlanta's fire power to be too much. Take the Falcons.
Marc Lawrence
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Chicago vs. Green Bay
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When the Bears and Packers meet in an NFC North division opening week showdown in Green Bay tonight they will do so knowing that division road dogs in Game One that won nine or more games last season are just 10-23-1 ATS, including 0-8 this decade. With the Packers 13-5 SU and ATS against division opposition under head coach Mike McCarthy, we'll stay at home with the Packers here tonight. Play On: Green Bay Packers