Wunderdog
Jacksonville at New York Jets
Pick: Jacksonville +9
The Jets had a big win last week vs. Dallas where they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. There is no way the Jets should have sniffed a win in that game, but they got it, leading to some overvalue this week. It was somewhat of a surprising game for New York as their defense is their calling card and Tony Romo torched their secondary for 326 yards and a pair of TDs. The offense, which is run-first, passed for over 300 yards and the ground game was held in check the entire game. That leaves a lot of question marks as to who are the Jets this year. Jacksonville surprised everyone by releasing David Garrard right before the season. Luke McCown has become the heir apparent and he managed the game very well vs. the Titans last week, committing no turnovers. The offense spear-headed by the running of Jones-Drew pounded the ball 47 times for the win. I expect that the Jags are going to be playing that way all season. Try to pPlay mistake free on offense, shorten games and allow an improved defense to give them a chance late. That Jags defense held Chris Johnson to 2 yards rushing in the opener. Jacksonville is very much an under the radar team, covering seven of their last ten games and have been Jets killers as they are 6-0 ATS vs. New York, including 4-0 ATS in New York. The Jets start slow having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 32 September games. Take the Jags with the points.
Pointwise Phones
3* Giants
3* Steelers
3* Falcons
3* Bucs
2* Bills
2* Lions / Chiefs Over
2* Bears / Saints Over
Jimmy Boyd
5* Chargers +7
Dr Bob
2* Jets
2* Seahawks
2* 49ers
Opinions
Panthers
Eagles
Cards/Redskins Under
Totals 4U
Top Plays
No/Chic OVER 47
Ariz/Wash UNDER 44
GB/Carl UNDER 45.5
Phil/ATL UNDER 49
Regular Plays
Jax/NYJ UNDER 39
Balt/Tenn OVER 37.5
TB/Minn UNDER 41.5
Clev/Indy UNDER 39.5
Dall/SF UNDER 42
Hous/Mia OVER 48
Sd/NE OVER 53.5
Platinum Plays Yesterday
Premier Picks
Balt Ravens
Denver
500K Play
Det Lions
400K
Atl Falcons
Regular Plays
Saints
Redskins
GB
TB Bucs
Dallas
Texans
NE
Sitxth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 4-3 +2.10%
3% ARIZONA +3.5
3% TAMPA BAY +3 Must get at least +3
3% CLEVELAND -2
3% NEW ENGLAND -6.5
3% CINCINNATI +3.5
3% PHILADELPHIA -2
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below (2010).
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
NEW ORLEANS -7 Chicago 47.5
The Bears out played Atlanta last week in their 30-12 win at home. They out gained Atlanta 5.9yppl to 5.8yppl, were out rushed 7.9ypr to 3.3ypr but out passed Atlanta 7.8yps to 5.3yps. While the rushing numbers don’t look favorable for Chicago, know the Falcons accumulated 53 of their 110 yards rushing on one play by Michael Turner. Take away that play and they averaged only 4.4ypr. Atlanta also threw the ball 15 more times than Chicago, while the Bears ran the ball 13 more times. All of that somewhat dilutes the overall Bears yards per play because they were being conservative in the end with the large lead.
The Packers and Saints put on a great show to kick off the season last week. For the Saints they fell just a couple yards short of tying the game in their 42-34 road loss at GB. They out gained GB 6.5yppl to 6.2yppl, including out rushing GB 3.9ypr to 3.8ypr, while being out passed 8.0yps to 7.6yps.
Chicago qualifies in an early season situation, which is 182-98-10. New Orleans qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 527-388-23 and 490-314-22. The situations go both ways in this game but the total is a bit intriguing given the history of these two teams when they play this level of competition. By that I mean NO playing a solid defensive team and Chicago playing a high powered offense or a team they are a large dog to. Chicago has played nine games over the last three years as a dog of seven or more points on the road or against a good offensive team. The final scores of those games were 27-20, 3-10, 7-31, 10-36, 14-21, 15-21, 3-17, 29-13 and 24-31. Those teams were Dallas, GB, Baltimore, Minnesota, Atlanta, Green Bay, NY Giants Indianapolis and Houston. They held the majority of those teams to 21 or less points and didn’t score a lot of points on their own. New Orleans over the last couple of years has played Pittsburgh, Minnesota and the Jets at home, or in other words good defensive teams. The final scores to those games were 20-10, 14-9 and 24-10. They did have the higher scoring game against Minnesota in the NFC Championship game but the Vikings offense at that time was much better than the first game of last year. Based on this history it looks like this game could be a lower scoring game. Six of those games mentioned above were totaled at 46.5 or higher and all but one went under the total. NEW ORLEANS 24 CHICAGO 17
DETROIT -7.5 Kansas City 45
The Chiefs were destroyed at home by Buffalo last week, 41-7. They were out gained 5.5yppl to 3.8yppl, 7.4yps to 2.8yps and did manage to out rush Buffalo 6.0ypr to 4.2ypr. If you take away two rushes of 22 and 23 yards by KC, they only averaged 3.9ypr so their damage was mostly done on two plays.
The Lions went to TB and won 27-20, in a game that probably wasn’t as close as the final score, thanks to a last minute touchdown by TB. Detroit out gained TB 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl, out rushed them 3.6ypr to 3.5ypr (126-56) and out passed the Bucs 9.2yps to 5.4yps.
I don’t have any side situations that apply to this game. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 80-41-4. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game. KC looks brutal so far this year (preseason and first game of the year) but this is a big line. I’m not quite ready to start laying over a touchdown with Detroit yet but also need to see something better from KC before I can be confident of taking them. They also lost Eric Berry for the year on defense last week. DETROIT 27 KANSAS CITY 20
NY JETS -9 Jacksonville 39
Jacksonville won at home against Tennessee 16-14. The final numbers would indicate Tennessee out played Jacksonville as they were out gained 6.0yppl to 4.4yppl, out passed 6.9yps to 6.2yps and only slightly out rushed Tennessee 3.5ypr to 3.3ypr. But, those numbers are extremely misleading. If you take away an 80 yard flip pass that turned into a long touchdown, Tennessee really only averaged 4.8yps. In addition, Jacksonville, with a lead, committed to the run. They ran the ball 47 times to only 13 for Tennessee.
The Jets led trailed just about the entire game at home last week but a costly Romo interception late in the game gave the Jets the game by a final of 27-24. They were out gained 5.9yppl to 5.6yppl, out passed the 8.2yps to 6.6yps and slightly out rushed Dallas 2.8ypr to 2.5ypr.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. No opinion on this game. Jacksonville actually played better than their final numbers last week. The Jets probably didn’t deserve to win the game. Jacksonville did defeat the Jets here 24-22 two years ago as large underdogs. NY JETS 24 JACKSONVILLE 19
BUFFALO -3 Oakland 42
Oakland picked up a win on the road last week at Denver, 23-20. They were out gained slightly in the game by Denver, 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl. But, that was primarily because they ran the ball 39 times to just 13 for Denver, while Denver threw 51 pass attempts to only 23 for Oakland. Oakland averaged 4.9ypr to just 2.9ypr for Denver. They only averaged 4.3yps but held Denver to just 5.3yps.
Buffalo looked great last week at KC in their 41-7 victory. They out gained KC 5.5yppl to 3.8yppl, 7.4yps to 2.8yps and although they were out rushed 6.0ypr to 4.2ypr, 45 yards of KC’s rushing game came on two plays. Without those two plays, they averaged just 3.9ypr.
If this line stays at -3 or lower the Bills would qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 89-43-10. Oakland qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-388-23. They would also qualify in another fundamental rushing situation, which is 158-86-8 if they were getting more than three points. Oakland figures to try and run the ball a lot in this game. They will be missing Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy at the receiver spot. If the number is over three I would lean towards the Raiders in this game. OAKLAND 24 BUFFALO 23
WASHINGTON -3.5 Arizona 44
Arizona managed to hold on and defeat Carolina last week 28-21. They out gained Carolina 7.3yppl to 7.0yppl, out rushed them 4.0ypr to 2.7ypr and out passed Carolina 10.2yps to 9.8yps.
I expected an improved Washington team last week and that’s exactly what we got in their 28-14 home victory. Washington was out gained in the game 5.6yppl to 5.2yppl, including being out rushed 3.8ypr to 2.8ypr while throwing for 6.8yps to 6.7yps for the Giants. The Giants passing numbers are a little deceiving because they completed a 68 yard pass. Without that long pass play, they averaged 4.9yps and 4.5yppl.
Arizona qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 490-314-22. That situation is 53-23-3 in week two of the season. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 65-27-2. I was on Washington last week because I believe they are an improved team from last year. The players they have added on defense all were above average players last year. Also, as I noted last week, this team was very competitive last year, despite all their issues. But, the fact they were competitive also means they played a lot of close games, winning four of their six games at home by three points or less and winning the other two by five and six points. The Redskins have not been great at home over the years laying points. Over the years, they are 0-5 ATS laying more than three points, 1-8 ATS in their last nine in that role and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 in that role. They didn’t have that role last year at home but lost out right as five point favorites on the road at St. Louis. Two of their key players on defense are also game time decisions this week in Orakpo and Landry. Washington won last week but as I pointed out above, their numbers were not great against a banged up Giants team. I do worry some about Arizona covering in the secondary based on what happened last week but it appears the Redskins want to run the ball a lot this week, which would shorten this game and make it close more than likely. With Kolb now at quarterback, Arizona, unlike last year once again has the ability to stretch the field and make some big plays. ARIZONA 23 WASHINGTON 17
Baltimore -5.5 TENNESSEE 38
Baltimore destroyed the Steelers at home 35-7 in a game that wasn’t close from the very beginning. The Ravens out gained Pittsburgh 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl, out rushed Pittsburgh 5.5ypr to 4.1ypr and out passed them 7.2yps to 5.5yps. They forced seven Steelers turnovers.
Tennessee fell behind early at Jacksonville and could never fully recover as they dropped their game 16-14 to Jacksonville. They out gained Jacksonville 6.0yppl to 4.4yppl, were slightly out rushed 3.5ypr to 3.3ypr and out passed Jacksonville 6.9yps to 6.2yps. Those numbers, however, are extremely misleading. If you take away an 80 yard flip pass that turned into a long touchdown, Tennessee really only averaged 4.8yps. In addition, Jacksonville, with a lead, committed to the run. They ran the ball 47 times to only 13 for Tennessee.
Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-388-23 but that situation doesn’t work as well for road favorites this large. In the John Harbaugh era, the Ravens are 7-3 as road favorites with one of those ATS losses an eight point victory laying 10.5 points on the road. But, Tennessee, over the last five years as a home dog is 8-3 ATS. Ravens will be missing a couple of players in the secondary – Jimmy Smith and Chris Carr but Tennessee is without safety Chris Hope. BALTIMORE 23 TENNESSEE 17
PITTSBURGH -14 Seattle 40
Seattle managed to put up 17 points at SF last week but unfortunately allowed 33 to SF, thanks in part to two kick off returns for the 49ers. The game saw only 219 total yards for Seattle and 209 total yards for SF, which should have calculated out to around 27 total points rather than the 50 total points that were scored. Seattle was out gained 4.0yppl to 3.4yppl, out rushed SF 2.9ypr to 2.7ypr and were out passed 6.2yps to 3.7yps, thanks in part to allowing five sacks.
Pittsburgh left Baltimore shocked after their 35-7 drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. Pittsburgh was never really in the game, committing seven turnovers in all. They were out gained 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl, 5.5ypr to 4.1ypr and 7.2yps to 5.5yps.
The Seahawks qualify in numerous situations this week, which are 56-25-1, 182-98-10 and 126-56-5. The 126-56-5 situation plays on bad teams (as defined by their winning percentage) against teams playing off a loss like Pittsburgh is. So, the fact Pittsburgh lost last week isn’t an indication they will bounce back with a dominating victory this week. That situation is 31-9-2 during week two of the season. Week two home teams (where both teams are off a loss) and playing a non-divisional game are just 12-33-1 ATS, including just 6-26-0 when the home team is favored by three or more points and just 1-19-0 since 1998. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 80-41-4. I can’t play Seattle in this situation knowing just how bad they really are and they have not faired well on the road as of late. Going back to their 2007 playoff loss at Green Bay, 20-42, Seattle has now lost 20 games by at least 10 points on the road. They’ve only played 26 games on the road during that same time span. That means they have only been competitive in six of their last 26 road games. Other than a two point loss at Miami, they have won the other five games against the likes of San Francisco, St. Louis twice, Arizona and Chicago. In 19 of those 26 games they have allowed at least 31 points. I’ll respect the situation and it’s more of a warning that Pittsburgh probably shouldn’t be played this week either but I can’t play Seattle with their current form. Pittsburgh played two games at home last year laying double digits following a loss and covered both games. The two times previous to that they did not cover. PITTSBURGH 24 SEATTLE 13
Green Bay -10 CAROLINA 45.5
GB didn’t disappoint in their 42-34 week one home victory over NO last week. For the game, the Packers were out gained 6.5yppl to 6.2yppl, out rushed 3.9ypr to 3.8ypr and slightly out passed the Saints, 8.0yps to 7.6yps.
Carolina put up a much better fight than most expected in their 28-21 victory loss at Arizona last week. They were out gained 7.3yppl to 7.0yppl, out rushed 4.0ypr to 2.7ypr and out passed 10.2yps to 9.8yps.
I don’t have any side situations that apply to this game. This game does qualify in an under situation, which is 80-41-4 if the total is less than 45. Packers are probably without CB Tramon Williams and Carolina looks to be without T Jeff Otah. Not much opinion on this game. The Packers should put up their share of points and then it comes down to if Carolina can put up enough points to cover the big number. GREEN BAY 27 CAROLINA 17
MINNESOTA -3 Tampa Bay 41.5
TB lost at home to Detroit 27-20 and quite frankly the game wasn’t that close. Detroit held the lead for most of the game and allowed a last minute touchdown to make the final score closer than it was. TB was out gained in the game 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl, out rushed 3.6ypr to 3.5ypr (126 yards to only 56 for TB) and out passed 9.2yps to 5.4yps.
Minnesota lost 24-17 at SD last week but were horrible on offense. They used an opening game kick off return to score their first seven points. They were out gained in the game 5.3yppl to 4.3yppl and averaged a pathetic 1.6yps, while allowing SD 6.6yps. Minnesota did average 6.1ypr to just 2.9ypr for SD. Minnesota ran the ball on 60% of their plays, which is a staple of the Bill Musgrave offense he ran at Atlanta.
TB qualifies in an early season situation, which is 182-98-10 as well as a situation, which is 126-56-5, including 31-9-2 during the second week of the season. Minnesota qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 527-388-23, 158-86-8 and 490-314-22. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 80-41-4. The Vikings were terrible last week and they will likely be without E.J. Henderson this week on defense and they will be without Kevin Williams as he serves the second game of his two game suspension. They can typically use their home field advantage to the benefit of their defense but Josh Freeman is a threat that can get out of some of the trouble that the Vikings defense can usually apply at home. TB has been very good on the road since Raheem Morris took over as head coach. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, TB is now 6-3 SU against teams that finished the season under .500 and other than his first road game at Buffalo where they lost by 13 he hasn’t lost a game on the road against a below average team by more than three points. The other two losses were by three and two points. Matter of fact, TB has won the last six games on the road against teams who finished the season under .500 and I would put Minnesota into that category this year. TAMPA BAY 21 MINNESOTA 20
Cleveland -2 INDIANPOLIS 39.5
Cleveland was upset at home to Cincinnati last week 27-17. The Browns fell down 13-0 early but managed to come back and grab a 17-13 lead but couldn’t hold on in the fourth quarter, giving up 14 more points to Cincinnati to lose the game. The Browns were out gained for the game 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. Cleveland averaged just 3.2ypr and allowed 4.2ypr and averaged just 4.8yps while holding Cincinnati to just 5.0yps. The Browns defense actually played very well against a sub par Cincinnati offense. When you consider Cincinnati gained 39 of their rushing yards on one touchdown run and 41 of their passing yards on one touchdown pass (a quick snap that caught Cleveland off guard), they only averaged 3.1ypr and 3.8yps when you take away those two long plays.
The Colts stunk up the joint last week at Houston without Peyton Manning in their 34-7 loss. Not only was Indy out gained 5.8yppl to 4.7yppl, out rushed 4.1ypr to 4.0ypr and out passed 8.7yps to 5.1yps, they were beaten much worse than that in the first half, where they trailed 34-0 at halftime. They were out gained in the first half 6.8yppl to 3.3yppl. Houston ran the ball the last 13 plays from the line of scrimmage to end the game, including three kneel downs at the end and ran the ball 19 of 24 plays in the second half.
Cleveland qualifies in an early season situation, which is 182-98-10. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 80-41-4. It’s hard to digest this line seeing Cleveland as a road favorite at Indy but the Colts are not a good team without Peyton Manning. Yes, they still have play makers at receiver, tight end and on the defensive line but Cleveland can play the type of game to eliminate a lot of that advantage. I would expect Cleveland to try and run the ball a lot in this game to eliminate the advantages Freeney and Mathis have on the defensive line. In addition, Cleveland has some quality players on defense in Phil Taylor on the line and Joe Haden in the secondary to cover the likes of Reggie Wayne. And, lets remember, Indy’s offensive line has not been good for a number of years but was covered up by Peyton Manning. That’s something Kerry Collins can not do. Gary Brackett, who is overrated will also miss this game at linebacker for Indianapolis. CLEVELAND 20 INDIANAPOLIS 13
Dallas -3 SAN FRANCISCO 42.5
The Cowboys led just about the entire game at NY last week but a costly Romo interception late in the game did them in as they lost 27-24. They out gained the Jets 5.9yppl to 5.6yppl, out passed the Jets 8.2yps to 6.6yps and were slightly out rushed 2.8ypr to 2.5ypr.
SF defeated Seattle 33-17 at home. Thanks to two kick off returns for touchdowns for SF, the game ended up being a much higher scoring game than it should have been based on only 219 total yards for Seattle and 209 total yards for SF. With that kind of yardage there probably should have only been around 27 total points scored. SF out gained Seattle 4.0yppl to 3.4yppl, were out rushed 2.9ypr to 2.7ypr but out passed Seattle 6.2yps to 3.7yps.
I don’t have any situations that apply to the side of this game. This game does qualify in a couple of under situations, which are 65-27-2 and 80-41-4. San Francisco hasn’t looked good in preseason or last week in their first game, failing to punch the ball in the end zone when given great field position. But, since Mike Singletary took over midway through 2008 season this team has been very competitive at home. I realize Singletary is no longer coaching the team but he at least shaped the attitude of the team to be more competitive. If they lose that under new head coach Jim Harbaugh remains to be seen. In the 18 home games since that time, counting last week, SF has won or stayed within three points in 15 of the 18 home games that have been played. Meanwhile, Dallas is just 3-9 ATS as a road favorite in their last 12 games. Dallas is the better team but can’t completely ignore this past history. SF has really struggled to score so this game may be lower scoring than normal as well. DALLAS 20 SAN FRANCISCO 17
Houston -3 MIAMI 48
Houston spanked the Colts last week 34-7 in a game that was 34-0 at halftime. Don’t be confused by the final numbers. The most important numbers are the fact Houston averaged 6.8yppl in the first half to just 3.3yppl for Indy. The game was over at halftime and Houston ran the ball the last 13 plays they had from the line of scrimmage, including three kneel downs and ran 19 or 24 plays in the second half. This was a classic drubbing for Indy. Overall, Houston out gained the Colts 5.8yppl to 4.7yppl, out rushed them 4.1ypr to 4.0ypr, including 4.8ypr in the first half for Houston and out passed the Colts 8.7yps to 5.1yps.
Miami lost at home to NE last week 38-24 and were out gained 8.8yppl to 6.7yppl. They rushed for 4.9ypr and allowed 4.8ypr but allowed a whopping 10.5yps to NE. They did gain 7.4yps themselves.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. I mentioned last week that as good as the Miami defense has played over the last year, they had allowed at least 21 points in nine straight home games to above average offenses, including at least 27 points in seven of those nine. Make it now at least 27 in eight of the last ten after allowing 38 points at home to NE last week. Two years ago Miami lost to Houston here 27-20. I think Houston is the better team. They definitely have the better offense and it remains to be seen how good their defense will be but it also looks improved. If it is just average, their offense is good enough to win most games. HOUSTON 30 MIAMI 24
NEW ENGLAND -6.5 San Diego 53.5
SD escaped with a win at home last week over Minnesota, 24-17, despite giving up an opening game kick off return to Minnesota. The Chargers out gained Minnesota 5.3yppl to 4.3yppl. They were out rushed 6.1ypr to 2.9ypr but our passed Minnesota 6.6yps to a pathetic 1.6yps for Minnesota.
NE averaged 8.8yppl but allowed 6.7yppl last week. They gained 4.8ypr and allowed Miami 4.9ypr. The Patriots averaged 10.5yps but also allowed Miami to pass for 7.4yps.
New England qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 490-314-22, including 53-23-3 in week two of the season. The Patriots are on a scoring roll right now, having scored at least 31 points in nine regular season games in a row. They defeated SD 23-20 on the road last year. SD is a good team this year and it’s hard to tell if NE has solved their defensive issues yet but this team has the capability of blowing out good teams, evidenced by their 39-26 win over Pittsburgh last year and 45-3 victory over the Jets last year. The situation in their favor is too strong to ignore. The last time SD played a real qualify team on the road was at Pittsburgh in 2009 and they lost that game 38-28 and lost to those same Steelers 35-24 the year before that. I’ll trust the situation in this game. NEW ENGLAND 34 SAN DIEGO 23
DENVER -3.5 Cincinnati 40
Cincinnati managed the win at Cleveland last week after giving up an early 13 point lead in their 27-17 victory. It was a big win for Cincinnati as they held the Browns to 4.2yppl, 3.2ypr and 4.8yps. Cincinnati managed to gain 4.6yppl, 4.2ypr and 5.0yps. But, they had a 39 yard touchdown run and a 41 yard touchdown pass (quick snap that caught Cleveland off guard) to account for a major portion of those yards. Without those two plays, they averaged just 3.5yppl, 3.1ypr and 3.8yps.
Denver lost at home 23-20 to Oakland. They out gained Oakland 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl but that was only because they threw the ball 51 times although only averaged 5.3yps to Oakland’s 23 pass attempts. Oakland only averaged 4.3yps. Oakland ran the ball 39 times to only 13 for Denver. The Broncos were only able to average 2.9ypr while allowing Oakland to average 4.9ypr.
Cincinnati qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-388-23 and another situation, which is 158-86-8 if they are getting more than three points. Denver qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 127-58-8 and plays against them here. Cincinnati is not a great team but they can play defense and they can run the ball. Andy Dalton may be a young, inexperienced quarterback that will have growing pains but the Bengals running game along with some decent skill receivers can protect him against below average teams. And, a solid Bengals defense will help that cause as well. Denver is extremely banged up and players such as Elvis Dumerville, Knoshon Moreno, D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey may not play in this game. Brandon Lloyd will probably play but he is questionable as well. Those players listed may be the top four players on this team and none of them practiced this week. Denver has now given up at least 23 points in 11 of their last 12 games. Over the last three years Cincinnati has played a brutal schedule on the road but when they play teams that are bad teams they have not allowed more than 23 points in any of those games. Knowing Denver is likely to give up that many points and Cincinnati isn’t likely to give up that many points, the Bengals are a live dog this week. CINCINNATI 27 DENVER 20
Philadelphia -2 ATLANTA 49.5
Philadelphia showed some vulnerability last week in their 31-13 road victory at St. Louis but they also showed they have a ton of talent that can overcome some of those plays. They out gained the Rams 6.1yppl to 5.0yppl, out rushed them 7.6ypr to 5.9ypr and out passed the Rams 4.8yps to 4.4yps. Even if you remove Michael Vick’s 97 yards rushing and LeSean McCoy’s 49 yard touchdown run, they still averaged 4.6ypr. If you take away Steven Jackson’s 47 yard touchdown run, they held the Rams to 4.3ypr for the game.
Atlanta was beaten soundly at Chicago last week 30-12. They were out gained in the game 5.9yppl to 5.8yppl but those numbers are only close because they threw the ball 15 more times than Chicago, while the Bears ran the ball 13 times more than Atlanta to dilute the numbers somewhat. Atlanta out rushed Chicago 7.9ypr to 3.3ypr and were out passed 7.8yps to 5.3yps. Take away a 53 yard rush by Atlanta and they averaged just 4.4ypr.
Philadelphia qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 182-98-10. Philadelphia has rolled the last two years against the Falcons, winning 31-17 last year and 34-7 in Atlanta in 2009. Vick missed last years game and Ryan missed the game in 2009. The Eagles have issues on the offensive line and at linebacker but their defensive line and secondary is outstanding and those two positions can handle a Falcon attack that has been just average on offense the last few years. Atlanta will also be without Jonathan Babineaux. Philadelphia just has too much talent and speed against an average team. The Eagles have issues but Atlanta isn’t a team that can take advantage of them. PHILADLEPHIA 30 ATLANTA 17
NY GIANTS -6 St Louis 44
St. Louis ran into the talent of the Eagles last week and they simply didn’t have enough of their own talent to beat Philly. They were out gained 6.1yppl to 5.0yppl, out rushed 7.6ypr to 5.9ypr and out passed 4.8yps to 4.4yps. Even if you take away the Michael Vick rushes and LeSean McCoy’s long touchdown run, they still allowed 4.6ypr to Philadelphia. And, if you take away Steven Jackson’s 47 yard touchdown rush, the Rams only averaged 4.3ypr. But, they did put pressure on Vick by sacking him three times and holding them to just 4.8yps.
The Giants lost 28-14 at Washington last week. The final numbers look competitive for NY as they out gained Washington 5.6yppl to 5.2yppl, out rushed the Skins 3.8ypr to 2.8ypr and were out passed 6.8yps to 6.7yps. But, NY completed a 68 yard pass that accounted for a large portion of their numbers. Without that pass play, they would have averaged 4.5yppl and 4.9yps.
Both teams qualify in situations in this game. The Rams qualify in an early season situation, which is 182-98-10 as well as 126-56-5. They would also qualify in another situation, which is 56-25-1 if there were getting more than six points. The Giants qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-388-23. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 80-41-4, if the total is less than 45. Not much of an opinion on this game. Too many question marks with the injuries for St. Louis as well as the Giants. NY GIANTS 23 ST LOUIS 17
Carolina Sports
3* NY Jets -9
The Jets played very poorly defensively last week but it was against an above average Dallas offense. Look for the Jets defense to shine this week going against a one-dimensional attack in Jacksonville. The Jags run the ball very well with Maurice Jones-Drew and look for the Jets to put 8 in the box and make Luke McCown beat them with single coverage on 2 of the best corners in the league with Revis and Cromartie. Jets offense took big steps last week and we feel Mark Sanchez will finally shine on year 3. Our ratings have the Jets -10.5 and computer calls for an 11-point win. With the Jets falling into a 34-8 positive home momentum early season situation of ours look for them to win here. NY Jets 24-10
3* San Diego
We were on last week with San Diego and they thoroughly dominated Minnesota except 1 bad special teams play, their fg kicker getting injured a 2 bad turnovers inside the Minnesota 25 yard line. We still feel this is an 'underrated' team this year and have a legit shot in representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. New England was great last week on offense against Miami but was very poor on defense. Defense has been the issue with New England the last few years and not getting enough pressure on the QB. Rivers should be able to pick the Pats defense a part. All of our seasonal clients have San Diego over 10 wins this year on their futures bet and we think they can come in and play the Pats tough. New England 31-28.
Joe D
20* Buffalo -3
15* Tampa Bay +3
Chip Chirimbes
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +9
I have a number of close friends (believe it or not) in this business and many of them actually 'love' the Chiefs here. Some insist that Kansas City will win the game on the field. I of course being more conservative will be happy with a point-spread victory. The Chiefs have only one way to go having failed to win a pre-season game and getting pounded at home by Buffalo has many thinking it will a long year for Kansas City. They fumbled the opening kickoff and turned the ball over three more times. Teams improve that most from week One to week Two and the Chiefs should cover. Take KANSAS CITY!
Info Plays
7* Miami Dolphins +3
Newsletters
RED SHEET
Pittsburgh 33 Sea 10 (88* Above average play)
Tampa 24 Minny 19 (88* Above average play)
Near Choices-Atl, Buff, Giants
CKO
10/11* Detroit over KC (31-10)
GOLDSHEET
New Orleans by 18
Pittsburgh by 25
Indianapolis by 9
POINTWISE
ATL over Ph 2
Tenn over Balt 3
Caro over GB 4
Dally over SF 5
NYG over STL 5
NELLY
5 Dallas
4 TAMPA Bay
3 Atlanta
2 Green Bay
1 Washington
POWER PLAYS
4* Ravens 27 Titans 14
3 Steelers 35-15
3 Skins 26-18
3 Jets 30-16
3 Lions Over
3 Saints 32-21
2* Lions 33-18
Al DeMarco
15 Dime Cowboys
5 Dime Steelers
In my media appearances last week I said I leaned toward the Cowboys because I thought they were getting too many points (+5 1/2) at New York. Never did I say I thought they could actually win the game; I just said it would be close and competitive.
It's funny how public perception affects the logic behind a win or a loss. As you know, thanks to Tony Romo's two turnovers, Dallas coughed up a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead for the first time in franchise history and ended up losing 27-24.
Over the past week all you heard in the media and in Vegas is how Romo cost the Cowboys the game. Granted, that's the truth, but overlooked in all the static is the fact that Dallas totally outplayed the Jets, whom many feel are destined for the Super Bowl, on the road in a near upset.
The Jets were the public money play, too, in that contest, yet Dallas clearly got the job done despite an injury-riddled secondary and lack of a power ground game. New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan threw multiple schemes and packages at New York, crippling its ground game in the process, holding the Jets to just 45 yards rushing.
Back to public perception: San Francisco opened the Jim Harbaugh with a 33-17 victory over a mediocre-at-best Seattle team at home. But the boxscore will show the Niners blew an early 16-0 lead, which turned into a 19-17 advantage, and needed Ted Ginn's special team heroics to put the game away.
San Fran totally collapsed defensively in the second half. Before intermission the 49ers held Seattle to three first downs and 37 total yards. When they returned to the field the Seahawks moved the ball at will with 15 first downs with Tarvaris Jackson passing for 155 of his yards.
Offensively San Fran was nothing special in its opener. Alex Smith was a conservative 15-for-20 for 124 yards. Frank Gore ran for just 59 yards on 22 carries. The team was 1-for-12 on third down conversions and finished with just 209 total yards and 12 first downs. That type of production will not get the job done against Dallas.
When appointed interim coach last season, Jason Garrett inherited a 1-7 squad and rode the Pokes to a 6-2 close with a huge upset of the Giants in his first game out of the blocks. Now as head coach he's responsible for getting his team over the disappointment of last week's come-from-ahead loss. Cut out of the Jimmy Johnson mode, he's got the leadership skills to do so.
The Cowboys played great ball last week against a superior opponent and lost. The quality of their foe goes down this week, which allows us to capitalize on a pointspread which has been deflated because of public perception. They can ill-afford an 0-2 start.
Final projected score: Dallas 24, San Francisco 19
Don't worry about the two-touchdown spread; Pittsburgh is focused after getting routed at Baltimore last Sunday and the Seahawks will serve as the sacrificial lamb.
Was I on Pittsburgh last week? You better believe it. Their effort and Ben Rothlisberger's performance was pathetic. Yes, the Ravens were at home in payback mode, but there's no excuse for seven turnovers. Big Ben was a big bust, getting sacked four times, throwing three interceptions and fumbling twice.
I can only imagine how hard Mike Tomlin rode his team this week. It's only Week Two, but this is a must-win game and one where the Steelers have to put together an impressive performance, especially defensively after letting Ray Rice run through every hole imaginable and Joe Flacco torch the secondary.
With this being Pittsburgh's only home game in the season's first four weeks I'll ride them and their 9-4 ATS record after playing Baltimore to a blowout of a Seattle squad that looked awful in falling behind 16-0 at San Francisco last week. Now they're faced with traveling cross country to tackle an angry bunch of Steelers in a game that starts at 10 AM Pacific.
The Seahawks are on negative runs of 3-16 ATS on the road and 0-5 as a double-digit dog.
Seattle's offensive line, starting two rookies, allowed five sacks to the Niners. Futher crippling the offense is the continued absence of WR Sidney Rice and the questionable status of OG Robert Gallery. Meanwhile, their special teams were destroyed last week by Ted Ginn and one of their key players on that squad, fullback Michael Robinson, is out today as well.
Small investment on the Steelers, who quickly right their ship with a dominating defensive effort.
Projected final score: Pittsburgh 27, Seattle 7
Billy Coleman
4* N Orleans -6.5
3* Indy + 2
3* S.Diego + 7
3* Dallas -3
4* T.Bay -140
3* Florida +115
3* Cleve-Minn Under 8.5
3* Minn-SA Under 149.5
3* Conn +5.5
Maddux Sports
20 Units Kansas City +8
10 Units Kansas City / Detroit Under 45
10 Units Chicago / New Orleans Under 47.5
10 Units Oakland / Buffalo Over 42.5
10 Units Tampa Bay +3