Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, September 19,2010

Joseph D'Amico

Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -5½

Miami struggled to put away Buffalo LW. Minnesota lost a tough one to the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saint’s. This week, the Viking’s have 3 extra days to rest and prepare. Dolphin’s QB Henne didn’t look comfortable LW against the Bill’s and now must face one of NFL’s best pass rushing defenses. Minny has too many weapons in their arsenal. They have WR’s Harvin and Berrian. Not to mention RB Peterson. Miami’s “D” will be overwhelmed. Especially without starting DE Jared Odrick, who is out with a foot injury. The Dolphin’s are 2-10-2 ATS their L14 games played in September and the Viking’s are 5-0-1 ATS their L6 games played at home. Take Minnesota.

Teddy Covers

20* NY Giants
Titans
Lions
Falcons
Dolphins

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 4-2-1 +5.40%

3% PITTSBURGH +5
3% PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (No higher than -7)
3% CHICAGO +7.5
3% ARIZONA +6.5
3% JACKSONVILLE +7

CLEVELAND -2.5 Kansas City 38.5

Browns lost at TB last week, 14-17, but they out gained TB 4.5ypr to 4.0ypr, 6.2yps to 5.5yps and 5.6yppl to 4.7yppl. They also sacked TB three times. But, they los the turnover battle 2-3. Meanwhile, KC won at home against SD, 21-14, but they were out played from the line of scrimmage. KC out rushed SD 5.2ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed badly, at 6.8yps to 2.7yps and overall at 5.6yppl to 4.0yppl. A long punt return and a kick off return for a touchdown, along with a 56 yard touchdown run accounted for all the scoring for KC.

KC was competitive in their road games last year against .500 or worse teams, winning at Washington, Oakland and Denver and losing by three points at Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Cleveland played a pretty tough schedule at home last year but when they played a team below .500, they defeated Oakland by 14 and Jacksonville by 6. Jake Delhomme will miss this game and Seneca Wallace will start for Cleveland. The Chiefs qualify in an early season situation, which is 86-37-9. I’d like to take KC here but they have some injuries on the defensive line and they were beaten pretty badly last week at the line of scrimmage. I need to see another week or two before I can get involved with KC. KANSAS CITY 23 CLEVELAND 21

GREEN BAY -13 Buffalo 43

Buffalo lost at home to Miami and didn’t look very good in doing so. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 2.9ypr, out passed 4.4yps to 3.1yps and out gained overall 4.1yppl to 3.1yppl. The Packers jumped out to an early lead at Philadelphia and then held on when Michael Vick entered the game for the injured Kevin Kolb. GB was out rushed 7.1ypr to 4.0ypr but much of that was because of Vick running around. They out passed Philly 4.9yps to 4.4yps. Overall, Philly out gained GB 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl.

This game is pretty simple. GB will put up at least 27 – 30 points in this game. Can Buffalo score at least 13-14 points to have a chance to cover? They managed to score more than 14 points in 6 of their 8 road games last year, but only more than 17 twice. Seems like 16-17 points is probably the right number, meaning GB would have to score 30 or more to cover. I’ll figure GB for 27 and go from there. There are no situations on this game. GREEN BAY 27 BUFFALO 16

Baltimore -2.5 CINCINNATI 40

Ravens came away with a big road win at NY last week, 10-9. They were out rushed badly by the Jets 5.5ypr to 1.4ypr but turned the tables on the passing game by out passing the Jets 5.8yps to 2.6yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.0yppl to 3.8yppl. Cincinnati fell behind early and really struggled at NE. Cincinnati was out rushed 5.1ypr to 3.5ypr, out passed 7.4yps to 6.7yps and out gained overall, 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl. Those numbers were much worse at halftime, at which point NE was already ahead 24-3. When NE opened the second half with a kick off return to make it 31-3, it was over and the stats after that weren’t nearly as reflective of the beating as before that.

Baltimore qualifies in an early season situation, which is 86-37-9 but Cincinnati qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 471-302-21. Baltimore has struggled here lately, losing last year and losing four of the last five games played in Cincinnati. Cincinnati was a good team before last week and they still are a good team. This line is probably about right but I have to look at whoever the dog is in this game. Unlike the Jets last week, Cincinnati’s offense will be able to threaten Baltimore’s defense, making the job a little tougher this week for the Ravens. CINCINNATI 20 BALTIMORE 17

TENNESSEE -5 Pittsburgh 36.5

Pittsburgh needed OT for the third straight time in games played between them and Atlanta. While the game went into OT, Pittsburgh dominated the game against Atlanta, out rushing them 4.6ypr to 2.3ypr, out passing them 7.3yps to 5.2yps and overall, 5.9yppl to 4.2yppl. Tennessee was dominant in their win over Oakland, especially in the passing game, where they out passed Oakland, 7.4yps to 3.6yps. Although 56 yards came on one touchdown to Nate Washington. Tennessee only passed the ball 19 times (including sacks). They were out rushed by Oakland, 5.4ypr to 5.3ypr. Overall, they out gained Oakland 5.9yppl to 4.3yppl.

Dennis Dixon gets the start again for Pittsburgh this week. While a lot is being made about whether or not Dixon can move the ball, on the road, against a good defense like Tennessee, the real battle in this game, IMO, is the Pittsburgh defense. As I said last week, it’s not just getting back Troy Polamalu back this year but they get back DE Aaron Smith. What you have is a solid defense getting a bunch of points. That’s a pretty strong recipe and knowing Tennessee allowed 5.4ypr last week to a Pittsburgh offense that can rush the ball, I like it even better. Pittsburgh qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 506-367-23, 154-78-8 and 282-195-22. This is not the first big road game for Dixon as he took to the road last year in Baltimore in an even more important game, getting 7.5 points and kept his team in the game until a last second field goal lost the game by three points. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS as a road dog under Tomlin, including 5-1 ATS the last six games. Better defense getting points is always worth a shot. PITTSBURGH 21 TENNESSEE 13

Philadelphia -6.5 DETROIT 41

Philly lost at home to GB last week, 20-27 but out gained GB 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl for the game. They out rushed GB 7.1ypr to 4.0ypr and were out passed 4.9yps to 4.4yps. But, it was a game of two halves for Philadelphia. With Kevin Kolb in the game during the first half, Philly couldn’t manage anything on offense. Michael Vick entered in the second half and ran all over the field and also managed a few good passes as well. The one constant in all of this is the Philly defense did a good job of holding down an above average Packer offense by holding them to only 4.5yppl for the game. Detroit lost a heartbreaker at Chicago but they were really dominated in that game. They were out rushed 3.3ypr to 1.0ypr, out passed 9.3yps to 4.1yps and out gained overall, 6.6yppl to 2.9yppl. Mixed in those numbers for Chicago was an 89 yard screen pass that went for a touchdown but even without that play, the Chicago numbers were very good.

I took Detroit last week because their new and improved defensive line was going to be a mismatch against the weaker Bears offensive line. While Chicago dominated that game from the line of scrimmage they could never pick up that yard when they needed it to make a first down or get in the endzone. This week I don’t see that defensive line making as much of a difference with the mobile Vick at quarterback. While Philly’s offensive line took a hit last week with the loss of C Jamaal Jackson, this is one week where they can get by without him, knowing Vick can escape pressure and facing a weak Lions secondary. Philadelphia qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-367-23 and they also qualify in a general situation, which is 161-89-8. The Lions also figure to struggle some against a good Philly defense with Shaun Hill at quarterback. Lions struggled at home against the better teams last year and I expect more of the same in this game. They lost by at least seven points in all five home games against teams with 7 or more wins last year. This game also qualifies in a week two under situation, which is 77-34-4. PHILADELPHIA 27 DETROIT 13

DALLAS -7.5 Chicago 40.5

Dallas lost at Washington last week, 7-13, but they out gained the Redskins from the line of scrimmage. They out rushed Washington, 4.7ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed them, 5.7yps to 4.9yps and out gained them overall, 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl. The Bears escaped with a win over Detroit, needing a controversial call from the refs to eliminate a last minute touchdown by Detroit but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. They out rushed Detroit, 3.3ypr to 1.0ypr, out passed them 9.3yps to 4.1yps and out gained them overall, 6.6yppl to 2.9yppl.

Dallas struggled last year to turn yards into points. That continued during the preseason and last week as well. They rolled up 380 yards but just seven points last week at Washington. They get two of their offensive lineman back this week but still face a very stiff match up against the new Bears front four. I was impressed with Chicago’s ability to gain yards last week even though it was only against Detroit and they certainly dominated Detroit’s offensive line. The Bears qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 154-78-8. A lot of points to be giving an above average defense when the team laying the points struggles to find the endzone. DALLAS 23 CHICAGO 20

CAROLINA -3.5 Tampa Bay 39

Carolina tried to hang with the Giants last week but ultimately lost 18-31 and were out played in doing so. They out rushed the Giants 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr but were badly out passed, 8.3yps to 3.8yps, including allowing four sacks. Overall, they were out gained 5.6yppl to 3.8yppl. TB escaped with a win over Cleveland but they were out played in their game. TB was out rushed 4.5ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed 6.2yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall, 5.6yppl to 4.7yppl.

Not impressed with either of these teams at this point in the season. Carolina was just 1-3 ATS last year at home as a favorite (not counting the final game against NO) and the lone cover was against TB, a 16-6 win as a -3.5 point favorite. I’ll call for a three point Carolina win and let the line decide which way I lean. CAROLINA 20 TAMPA BAY 17

ATLANTA -6.5 Arizona 43

Arizona won a close game at St. Louis last week, but truth be told, they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. It was four fumbles that kept Arizona from turning yards into points. Fumbles are random so unlike three interceptions, like the Rams had, fumbles generally won’t continue to happen at the same rate. Arizona out rushed the Rams, 5.3ypr to 3.5ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 4.2yps and out gained them overall 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl. Atlanta took the Steelers to OT before losing but they were out played in their game. Pittsburgh out rushed Atlanta, 4.6ypr to 2.3ypr, out passed them 7.3yps to 5.2yps and out gained them overall, 5.9yppl to 4.2yppl.

Arizona lost Kurt Warner during the offseason but their defense is still pretty good and it’s no secret they want to run the ball this year. Ken Whisenhunt’s team was 4-0-1 ATS on the road last year as a dog. Arizona qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 506-367-23, 154-78-8 and 471-302-21. Solid defense, getting points and the ability to rush the ball against an average defense, at best, make for a solid play. ARIZONA 24 ATLANTA 23

MINNESOTA -5.5 Miami 39.5

Minnesota played great defense, considering their opponent and some of the injuries the Vikings had in their secondary. But the offense struggled without their top receiver, Sidney Rice. Minnesota out rushed the Saints, 4.0ypr to 3.2ypr but were out passed 6.2yps to 5.8yps. Overall, they were even with NO, gaining and allowing 5.0yppl. Miami went to Buffalo and really controlled the game immediately. Miami out rushed Buffalo, 3.7ypr to 2.9ypr, out passed them 4.4yps to 3.1yps and overall, out gained Buffalo, 4.1yppl to 3.1yppl.

I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Minnesota may be without Percy Harvin and it appears they will still be without Chris Cook and Cedric Griffin in the secondary. The Vikings stout rush defense figures to match up well with the Miami running attack. It remains to be seen if the Dolphins less than stellar passing attack can take advantage of the injuries in the Vikings secondary. I’ll lean with Minnesota based on the fundamental match up. MINNESOTA 24 MIAMI 17

OAKLAND -3.5 St Louis 37.5

Oakland was beaten badly last week at Tennessee, 13-38. They were out passed 7.4yps to 3.6yps and out gained overall, 5.9yppl to 4.3yppl. The lone bright spot for Oakland, is they were able to rush for 135 yards and averaged 5.4ypr. Unfortunately, they also allowed 205 yards rushing at 5.3ypr. The Rams played a close game against Arizona, but they were dominated at the line of scrimmage. They allowed 5.3ypr to only 3.5ypr for them. St. Louis was out passed 6.2yps to 4.2yps and out gained overall, 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl.

The Rams qualify in a general situation, which is 161-89-8 but they are still a bad team and not getting enough points to over come any mistakes they may make. Oakland also qualifies in a negative situation, which is 92-46-4 and plays against them here. It doesn’t appear Oakland is very good this year but taking a rookie quarterback on the road for his first NFL start is always dangerous, especially after he was intercepted three times last week. I’ll lean slightly towards the Rams to respect the situation but can’t make it a play. OAKLAND 17 ST LOUIS 14

DENVER -3.5 Seattle 40

Denver lost at Jacksonville, 17-24, but they out gained Jacksonville 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl. Rushing and passing numbers were pretty close, averaging 3.6ypr and allowing 3.9ypr and throwing for 7.6yps and allowing 7.5yps. Seattle dominated SF in their 31-6 victory. They out rushed SF 3.3ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed them 6.9yps to 4.6yps and overall out gained SF 5.1yppl to 4.0yppl.

I don’t have a great read on these teams yet this year. Seattle appears to have a decent defense and their offense may be better than I thought with an experienced quarterback, assuming the offensive line can hold up. Not sure what to think about Denver but it appears they will be able to move the ball some and their defense is respectable. Good game for me to sit on the sidelines and learn a little more about each team. DENVER 23 SEATTLE 20

Houston -3 WASHINGTON 43.5

Houston came up big in their win over Indy last week, 34-24. They rushed for 257 yards at 6.1ypr, while allowing Indy 4.4ypr. They were out passed 7.1yps to 5.2yps and overall, out gained 6.7yppl to 5.8yppl but that was mostly because Indy threw the ball 40 more times than Houston. Washington escaped with a win over Dallas and looked more like a complete team than they have in a long time. With that said, they were out gained by Dallas in the game. Washington was out rushed, 4.7ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed, 5.7yps to 4.9yps and out gained overall, 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl.

I don’t have any situations on the side in this game. The line should probably be closer to a pick ‘em, in my mind, but Houston has a good enough defense and certainly can score points. If they are able to run the ball like they did last week, they will win this game. This game does qualify in a couple of under situations, which are 77-34-4 and 63-24-2. I’ll lean towards the under and towards the dog, knowing Houston comes off their biggest win in the history of the team last week. HOUSTON 21 WASHINGTON 20

SAN DIEGO -7 Jacksonville 45.5

Chargers lost at KC on Monday night, 14-21 but they out played KC from the line of scrimmage. While SD was out rushed 5.2ypr to 3.8ypr, 56 yards came on a touchdown run. Other than that, they averaged just 3.1ypr. They were out passed 6.8yps to 2.7yps and out gained overall, 5.6yppl to 4.0yppl. KC scored their touchdowns on a 56 yard touchdown run, a 94 yard kick off return and a long punt return that set up a 12 yard scoring drive.

Jacksonville may be a little improved this year with the new starters on the defensive line and the offensive line gaining maturity since last year. They rushed for 134 yards last week and sacked Denver three times. Meanwhile, the final numbers weren’t bad for SD but they are still without their best offensive lineman, LT McNeil and their best receiver Vincent Jackson, so it remains to be seen how well the offense can move the ball. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-367-23. Jacksonville worth a shot here with a decent price. SAN DIEGO 27 JACKSONVILLE 24

New England -3 NY JETS 38.5

NE jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead against Cincinnati and held on to win 38-24. They out gained Cincinnati, 5.1ypr to 3.5ypr, 7.4yps to 6.7yps and 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl. Those numbers were even more dominating at halftime, before the game was over for all practical purposes. The Jets lost at home to Baltimore, 9-10. They were able to out rush Baltimore, 5.5ypr to 1.4ypr but were out passed 5.8yps to 2.6yps and were able to out gain Baltimore overall, 4.0yppl to 3.8yppl.

I don’t have any situations on either side in this game so I will remain on the sidelines but this line amazes me a little bit. NE is hurting on their offensive line and in their secondary but one good game at home last week appears to have caused everyone to forget those issues. Meanwhile, the Jets, who are good but probably not as good as some people wanted to build them up to be, are much better than what people are now analyzing them to be. And, let’s remember, they faced a good Ravens defense last week but the defense they face this week will be much softer than Baltimore’s. That should allow them to have a little more success on offense. The defense was just fine last week if they can eliminate the penalties against them. These two combined for only 25 points here last year, which was a 16-9 Jets victory as a three point dog. This game qualifies in a 63-24-2 under situation. NY JETS 17 NEW ENGLAND 14

INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 NY Giants 48

The Giants struggled early but pulled away from Carolina with solid defensive play last week. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr but out passed Carolina easily, 8.3yps to 3.8yps and overall, 5.6yppl to 3.8yppl. Indy played a close first half but fell apart when Houston started shoving the ball down their throat in the second half. For the game, Indy allowed 257 yards rushing at 6.1ypr. They averaged 4.4ypr themselves. Indy out passed Houston 7.1yps to 5.2yps and for the game, out gained Houston 6.7yppl to 5.8yppl but that difference was really the result of throwing the ball 40 more times than Houston.

Giants have a few potential injuries on the defensive line and at receiver in Osi Umenyiora and Hakeem Nicks. Once again, Bob Sanders is out for Indianapolis. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Giants were banged up on defense last year but they allowed a lot of points on the road against good offenses to the tune of 31, 48, 40 and 44. They may try to run the ball a little more to keep the defense off the field but Indy should get their share of points and the Giants offense is more than capable of holding their own as well. A strong lean to the over. INDIANAPOLIS 30 NY GIANTS 24

New Orleans -5.5 SAN FRANCISCO 44

NO came away with a win over the Vikings in week one, 14-9 but struggled on offense against a Vikings defense that was a little beat up. They were out rushed 4.0ypr to 3.2ypr but our passed Minnesota, 6.2yps to 5.8yps. Overall, the two teams played even at 5.0yppl each. SF was throttled at Seattle in their 31-6 loss. They were out rushed 3.3ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed 6.9yps to 4.6yps and out gained overall, 5.1yppl to 4.0yppl.

Saints have had 11 days to prepare for this game so they should be ready. SF should be focused as well giving how poorly they played last week. This total seems a little low for a NO game. Since Sean Payton took over for the Saints, they have totaled at least 44 points in 23 of their 32 road games (not counting final game last year where starters didn’t play). If SF can’t recover they will get buried in this game but I look for them to execute much better this week and we have a good defense getting points so I will lean that way but the better play may be the over. NEW ORLEANS 27 SAN FRANCISCO 23

Gold Medal Club

25* Denver
10* Arizona
10* Miami
10* NY Giants

DR BOB

3* Philadelphia at -6.5 or less, 2* at -7
2* Pittsburgh at +3.5 or more
2* Arizona at +4 or more

LPW Sports Forecast

NFL Play of Week - 10 Unit Pittsburgh +5.5 over Tennessee

Solid value here with a very good Steeler team playing Tennessee team off lopsided Win against Oakland.Dixon given a week to get comfortable and he presents some of what Young presents with Tennessee with mobility and Steelers with solid nucleus.Steelers have an excellent chance at su win here so we take points.

NFL Underdog of Week - 10 Units Cincinnati +2.5 over Baltimore

This without a doubt is a good Baltimore defense,but that evaluation must be tempered with last weeks win against Jets weak offense.Bengals Offense looks a good bit ahead of Jets and we think they will be a sizeable challenge for Ravens.Bengals at home in bounceback mode and we take points!

6 Units Buffalo/GB Over 43

Over is 48-23-2 in Packers last 73 games vs team with losing record.We simply cant see Pack having much difficulty scoring 30+ here and Bills should be able to squeeze in some garbage points as well. We like this game over.

5 Units Oakland +3.5 over St.Louis

Good opportunity for Raiders ro rebound from miserable game against Titans.Rams 15-33-3 ats last 51 in September and Bradford alone wont change that trend over nights. Raiders su here!

igz1 sports

3* Pittsburgh/Tennessee Under 37

DOUBLE DRAGON

CARDINALS +7 (-120)
COWBOYS -7 (-115)
TEXANS -2.5
PATRIOTS -3
SAINTS -5

John Fina

5 Units Cincinnati Bengals +3 GOY

2.5 Units Cleveland Browns -2.5

2.5 Units Tennessee Titans -5.5

2.5 Units Arizona Cardinals +7.5 (-120)

Al Demarco

15 Dime Teaser Minnesota & Dallas

Chuck O`Brien

40 Dime Patriots

15 Dime Packers

Trace Adams

1000* Minnesota

500* Patriots

Brett Atkins

20 Dime Atlanta

5 Dime Houston

5 Dime Colts

Stephen Nover

75 Dime Cowboys -7

Anthony Redd

50 Dime Pittsburgh/Tennessee Under

Dwayne Bryant

Cleveland -3

Minnesota -5.5

David Malinsky

5* Chargers Under 45

Denver Broncos -3

Atlanta Under 43

Bobby Maxwell

700-Unit NFL Game of the Year - HOUSTON TEXANS

The Houston Texans found another offensive weapon to go along with QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. Say hello to RB Arian Foster who rushed for 231 yards and three TDs against the Colts last week, leading Houston to the 34-24 home win.

If the Redskins decide to turn their attention to him, expect Johnson and TE Owen Daniels to have big days in Washington. Against the Colts, Schaub threw for just 107 yards and Johnson had just three catches for 33 yards. Very quiet for very talented players.

On the other side, Washington scored the 13-7 home win over the Cowboys on Sunday night last week thanks to two crazy plays. At the end of the first half, an ill-advised running play instead of taking a knee cost the Cowboys seven points when they fumbled and CB DeAngelo Hall recovered and went in for the score. Then at the end of the game, Dallas scored what appeared to be the game-winning TD that was called back for holding as time expired.

Offensively, the Redskins did next to nothing. QB Donovan McNabb completed just 15-of-32 passes for 171 yards and they rushed for just 89 yards on 23 carries. Houston’s defense made a commitment to force Peyton Manning to move his feet and it worked last week. The gameplan will be the same today with McNabb. Look for Mario Williams to be all over McNabb.

Washington is just 4-11 ATS at home the last few seasons and they are 7-15 ATS at home against winning teams. Houston is on ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall, 5-2-2 against winning teams and 3-1-2 after a victory.

I like this Houston team to roll into Washington and win this one by 10. Go ahead and lay the points with the Texans today.

100-Unit NFL No-Brainer - ATLANTA FALCONS

The Arizona Cardinals have been a notoriously bad road team, especially when they have to travel to the eastern part of the United States. They got very lucky last week in St. Louis when the Rams used very poor clock management in the final drive and allowed the Cardinals to win 17-14.

Even though the Cardinals went 6-2 on the road last year, they were playing a lot of bottom-feeders as they went and beat Jacksonville, Seattle, Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit. The 2008 season saw them go east and lose decisively to good teams like the Redskins, Jets, Panthers, Eagles and Patriots.

Now they are on the road against a good team in Atlanta. The Falcons are going to find the going easy against the Cardinals after that Week 1 battle with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers got the 15-9 overtime win to ruin Atlanta’s opener, but this team is looking like a definite NFC playoff team.

QB Matt Ryan threw for 252 yards in Pittsburgh last week and while RB Michael Turner had just 42 yards rushing, I expect him to bust out today and torch the Cardinals. WR Roddy White is as good as it gets in that spot and we all know TE Tony Gonzalez will find a way to get open in the middle of the field and make life easy for Flacco.

Arizona got the win in St. Louis on Sunday but didn’t do much with the running game. QB Derek Anderson threw for 297 yards and a TD but found WR Larry Fitzgerald just three times for 43 yards. Look for Atlanta to double-up on Fitzgerald’s side which will make coverage of WR Steve Breaston very crucial to Atlanta’s success.

Arizona is just 4-12 ATS on fieldturf and 7-22 ATS on the road against losing teams. On the other side, Atlanta brings in several positive ATS streaks, including 11-4 after an ATS loss, 13-3 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 overall and 6-2 at home.

I expect the Falcons to come out fired up today and score a big victory, beating the Cardinals by at least 10 points, and probably closer to 20.

BIG AL

NFL GOM - NY Giants