Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday September 20,2009

RatedPicks

2 Units - NE Patriots -4.5 vs NY Jets
2 Units - Pitt Steelers -3 vs Chic Bears

2 Units Bonus Play - Tennessee Titans -7.5

Monday Night Football

Ind Colts -3 vs Miami Dolphins

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
Oakland 21 KANSAS CITY (-3.0) 13

The Raiders are an accurate quarterback away from becoming a pretty good team, as the rushing attack is among the best in the league, the secondary is good, and the annually problematic run defense seems to have been fixed with the addition of All-Pro Richard Seymour, who dominated play with good run defense and 2 sacks without even having practiced with the team. Having Seymour and former Dallas All-Pro DE Greg Ellis (1 sack on Monday) on the ends makes it a lot easier for the defensive tackles to handle their business in the middle of the line since the opposing offensive line has to double team Seymour. JaMarcus Russell only completed 12 of his 29 passes, but he averaged a decent 6.9 yards per attempt thanks to a perfectly thrown deep ball to rookie Louis Murphy. The Raiders should have no trouble running the ball on a bad Kansas City run defense and Russell will be able to find more open receivers against the Chiefs' sub-par secondary than he did last week against the Chargers. Kansas City gave up 501 total yards to 5.9 yards per play to a below average Ravens' offense last week, so Oakland should move the ball pretty well in this game. Kansas City's offense, meanwhile, averaged just 4.3 yppl against a very good Ravens' defense, which is about what I expected. It's uncertain if Matt Cassel will be making his Chiefs' debut at quarterback, but Brodie Croyle actually played pretty well last week, so it probably doesn't make much of a difference since I think Cassel will be a below average passer without Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. I'm not quite ready to admit that the Raiders' problems with run defense are suddenly a thing of the past, so I'll continue to rate them as poor in that area until more evidence to the contrary is presented. If the Raiders are still below average against the run, then the Chiefs' rushing attack should be pretty good, but Oakland is capable of limiting the pass attack and my ratings favor Oakland by 3 points in this game. My ratings prior to last week would have favored the Raiders by 1 1/2 points in this game, so last week's results did no influence my ratings too much. In addition to having the better team getting points the Raiders apply to a 63-22 ATS situation and a 28-2 ATS game 2 situation that has won 16 consecutive times, including my Best Bet winner on the Raiders at Kansas City last year in week 2. Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 30-90 ATS momentum situation and a 35-81-3 ATS week 2 angle. It also doesn't hurt that the road team is 11-0-1 ATS the last 12 games in this series. I'll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 (-1.20 odds or better) or more and I'd make them a 2-Star at +3 (-1.25 or more) or less.

Strong Opinions (Carolina and UNDER
Carolina 17 ATLANTA (-6.0) 18

Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme had his worst day as an NFL quarterback in last week's 10-38 loss the Eagles, as he threw 4 interceptions and lost a fumble. Lost in talk about how bad Delhomme was was the fact that the Panthers' defense played very well in limiting the Eagles to just 4.3 yards per play while allowing McNabb to average just 4.4 yards per pass attempt before he left the game with an injury. Delhomme has been a good quarterback for many seasons and he's going to be a good quarterback this year too, so don't overreact to last week's performance. In fact, Delhomme has had 3 other 3 or more interceptions games since 2005 and he's thrown a total of zero picks in the 3 games following those 3 previous bad games while averaging a quarterback rating of 116.4. I don't necessarily expect zero interceptions and a QB rating of 116 today, but I do expect Delhomme to be better than average like he has he's been his entire career while the defense continues to play well. While Carolina was going -5 in turnover margin in their loss, the Falcons' were +4 in turnovers in their misleadingly easy 19-7 victory over Miami. Atlanta averaged just 4.6 yppl in that game while allowing 4.6 yppl to the Dolphins, who randomly fumbled the ball away 3 times. Prior to last week the Falcons would have been only a 2 point favorite against a Panthers team that was considered superior. Now the Falcons are favored by 6 points due to a randomly bad game by Delhomme and a randomly lucky +4 turnover margin that led to a misleading final score against the Dolphins. Carolina is 9-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or more with Jake Delhomme as the starting quarterback and Delhomme is 11-2 ATS as a starter if his team is coming off a double-digit loss. My ratings only favor Atlanta by 2 1/2 points in this game and I expect Jake Delhomme and the Panthers to bounce back like they usually do. I'll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd take the Panthers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

I'll also consider the UNDER in the Carolina-Atlanta game a Strong Opinion at 42 points or higher based on a very good 24-1 subset of a 40-9 ATS week 2 Under situation.

Strong Opinion
Tampa Bay 19 BUFFALO (-5.0) 18

Tampa Bay's new defensive system didn't suit them well last week, as the Buccaneers were burned by numerous big passing plays from the arm of the Cowboys' Tony Romo, who averaged 22 yards per completion. Buffalo's Trent Edwards isn't as likely to beat the Bucs down the field and Tampa will clean up a lot of their mistakes in week 2. What was encouraging was how well the Bucs played offensively against a good Cowboys' defense. Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward combined for 159 yards at 6.4 ypr and Byron Leftwich was solid in averaging 6.7 yards per pass play with no interceptions. Buffalo lost a heartbreaker on Monday night against the Patriots and may be suffering a bit of a hangover this week while thinking about what could have been. Tampa Bay applies to a 28-2 ATS week 2 situation and my ratings favor Buffalo by just 4 points. I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +4 or more. I also favor the Under based on an 85-28-3 Under angle.

Strong Opinion - UNDER (40.5)
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) 18 Baltimore 17

Baltimore may have racked up 501 total yards in their 38-24 win over Kansas City, but they only averaged 5.9 yards per play, which is barely better than what I expected the Ravens to average against a bad Kansas City defense. Also, allowing 24 points is misleading given that the Ravens only yielded 188 yards at 4.3 yppl. That high scoring game has given us some value on the under in this game (my ratings project 37.5 points) and this game applies to an 85-28-3 UNDER situation, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 39 points or higher.

The side on this game is a bit trickier, as Baltimore applies to a very good 100-36-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator as well as a negative 23-55-3 ATS situation. San Diego, meanwhile, is 25-6-1 ATS in regular season home games when not favored by more than 11 points. The statistical indicator favoring Baltimore is stronger than the general situation and the team trend, so I'll lean with the Ravens plus the points.

INDIAN COWBOY

6 Unit Play. Take Over 40.5 Baltimore @ San Diego

I think folks will be surprised at the amount of offense that will amount to in this game. With LT out, the Chargers are a better team. Sorry LT fans, they are. Sproles makes this team far more dynamic and LT makes this team much more predictable. With the Chargers playing their first home game of the year, Baltimore coming off a big win and looking to build off their great season last year, I expect both offenses to be in sync and ready to go. Remember, the Ravens gave up 20+ points to the Chiefs at home. They can certainly give up that many points to the Chargers on the road. Plus, with Flacco getting more comfortable with the offense, the Ravens are letting him throw the ball more. Heck, Joe threw 43 times and for three touchdowns. Tack that on with the fact that Sproles makes for a great running back out of the backfield for both the passing and the running game, this should be a relatively high scoring game. Plus, I'm sure the Ravens take exception to the fact they are Underdogs in this game and will likely be an active dog - with a solid shot at winning outright. The Over is 5-1-1 for the Ravens as Underdogs and the Over is 8-0 for the Chargers in the month of September of late.

Pointwise Phones

3* NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS

2* NY GIANTS, WASHINGTON, INDY

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket: Atlanta -6

Houston +6.5
Chicago Over 37.5
York Giants +3

Gold Medal Club

Carolina
New England
Chicago
Giants

Mark Lawrence

Cincinnati @ GREEN BAY
Play: 3* Cincinnati

Carolina @ ATLANTA
Play: 3* Carolina

Pittsburgh @ CHICAGO
Play: 3* CHICAGO

Maddux Sports

3 units Carolina +6.5
3 units on Oakland +3
3 units on Baltimore +3
5 units on Pittsburgh & Chicago Over 37.5
3 units on Chicago +3

SIXTH SENSE

BEST BETS

YTD 1-4 -10.20%

3% OAKLAND +3
3% TENNESSEE -6.5
3% NY JETS +3.5
3% ARIZONA +3
3% SEATTLE +1.5
3% BALTIMORE +3
3% ARIZONA/JACKSONVILLE OVER 42.5 No higher than 43

KANSAS CITY -3 Oakland 38.5

KC lost a close game to the Ravens last week (lost by 14 but game was tied with three minutes left). The close score didn't really tell the true story as Baltimore dominated this game from the line of scrimmage. The Ravens totaled a franchise record 501 yards, including rushing for 198 yards at 4.8ypr and passing for 303 yards at 6.9yps. Their defense started out right where it left off last year, allowing just 188 total yards at 4.3yppl, including limiting KC to 29 rushing yards at 1.7ypr and 159 passing yards at 5.9yps. Oakland lost a tough game at home to SD but they dominated this game by rushing for 148 yards at 4.6ypr and throwing for 218 yards at 6.6yps. Russell was only 14-32 throwing the ball but they hit some big plays. They limited SD to just 77 yards rushing at 3.3ypr and held SD to 6.2yps, which isn't bad considering they averaged 7.7yps last year. The addition of Richard Seymour paid huge dividends in his first game. Now the Raiders get a Chiefs team that still appears to be struggling badly on defense. Last year they allowed 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr and 7.0yps against 6.5yps. No reason to think they will be any better after the first week this year. The Raiders have had great success here lately, winning the last two years, and have stayed within four points in nine of the last ten games played here. Kansas City qualifies in a negative situation, which is 88-42-4 and plays against them here. Meanwhile, Oakland qualifies in an early season situation, which is 82-36-9. Oakland also qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 535-406-30, 115-49-8, 176-93-13 and 444-285-21. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 77-34-4. Numbers favor KC by just one point before accounting for the situations and predict about 38 points. OAKLAND 23 KANSAS CITY 13

TENNESSEE -6.5 Houston 40.5

Titans lost at Pittsburgh last week but out played the Steelers. They out rushed Pittsburgh 86-36 and 3.4ypr to 1.6ypr. They averaged 6.5yps while allowing Pittsburgh 6.8yps and totaled 5.2yppl to 5.1yppl for Pittsburgh. They also sacked Roethlisberger four times last week while limiting the Steeler sacks to just one. Houston was destroyed at home by the Jets 7-24. They allowed NY to rush for 190 yards at 4.5ypr and only had 38 yards at 2.9ypr. The Jets and rookie Mark Sanchez threw for 272 yards at 8.8yps and Houston only totaled 145 yards at 4.1yps. Overall, Houston was out gained 6.3yppl to 3.8yppl. Houston struggles against good defenses on the road as well as good teams on the road. Last year they played three road games against good defenses and lost by 21, 19 and 7 points to Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Minnesota. Tennessee qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 535-406-30 and 444-285-21. Numbers favor Tennessee by nine points before the situations and predict about 45 points. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 77-34-4. Tennessee doesn't allow a lot of points at home, allowing only two of nine teams last year to score more than 17 points, while Houston allowed at least 27 in six of eight road games last year, at least 26 points in six of eight road games in 2007 and at least 26 points in five of eight road games in 2006. Giving up a lot of points on the road with consistency doesn't bode well for a team that will ram it down your throat, control the clock and play solid defense against your offense. TENNESSEE 27 HOUSTON 13

New England -3.5 NY JETS 45.5

I liked the Jets last week but couldn't pull the trigger on the road with a rookie quarterback making his first start. Either Mark Sanchez is really good or the Houston defense is really bad. Both are probably true and the Jets defense looks to be pretty solid as well, making Sanchez's job a little easier. NY rushed for 190 yards at 4.5ypr and allowed just 38 yards rushing at 2.9ypr. They threw for 272 yards at 8.8yps and held a solid Houston passing game to just 145 yards at 4.1yps. Overall the Jets out gained Houston 6.3yppl to 3.8yppl. NE fell behind but did what good teams do and found a way to win against a Buffalo team that just doesn't know how to put teams away. NE was out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.2ypr but did out pass Buffalo 6.8yps to 6.4yps. They were out gained by Buffalo 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl despite throwing 53 passes in the game. The Jets qualify in numerous solid fundamental rushing situations, which are 124-63-5, 535-406-30, 76-30-3 and 444-285-21. Numbers favor NE by two points and predict about 47 points. NE has dominated this series here winning eight straight, including seven in a row by at least five points. This game will be tough for the Jets but the situations are in their favor. I like this team as Rex Ryan has created an attitude on this team typical of a Ryan team that won't take crap from anyone and is going to attack it on all levels. The Jets could get blown out here because Sanchez isn't ready for this stage and NE is qualified enough to take advantage of this situation. Or, the Jets could be the real thing and the NE defense could be as bad as it looked last week. Buffalo looked absolutely horrible in the preseason and then looked like a normal offense against NE's defense last week. That's what still needs to be determined early in a season but I will take a chance with the Jets and a solid defense getting points at home. NY JETS 27 NEW ENGLAND 21

GREEN BAY -9 Cincinnati 42

Like Buffalo, Cincinnati forgot how to put a team away after a freak 87 yard touchdown pass late in the game allowed Denver to defeat the Bengals last week. Cincinnati was out rushed 3.8ypr to 3.2ypr and out passed 7.3yps to 6.1yps but Denver was averaging just 4.7yps before the tipped 87 yard touchdown pass. Cincinnati was out gained 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl but again, it would have been just 4.3yppl before that tipped pass. GB got a lucky win against Chicago with a long pass play in the last two minutes of their game. While the Packers played inspiring defense their offense failed the test against the Chicago pressure last week. GB was out passed 7.0yps to 4.7yps and out gained overall 5.1yppl to 4.2yppl. They did out rush Chicago 3.5ypr to 2.8ypr. I don't have any situations on this game but the game does qualify in an early season under situation, which is 63-24-2. Numbers favor GB by 11 points and predict about 44 points. A lot of points to be laying in an NFL game especially when the GB offensive line appears to have some holes. They may get fixed this week but until they do it's hard to lay this many points on potential. I'll lean slightly to the Bengals and the under. GREEN BAY 21 CINCINNATI 17

Minnesota -9.5 DETROIT 45

Minnesota started slowly last week but then throttled Cleveland in the second half. Overall Minnesota rushed for 225 yards at 6.1ypr but threw for just 85 yards at 3.3yps and were sacked four times. They finished the game averaging 4.5yppl. Cleveland rushed for 4.5ypr and passed for 4.5yps, finishing at 4.5yppl. The Minnesota numbers are a bit skewed simply because they ran the ball 59% of the time. Detroit was blown out at NO as their defense doesn't looked like it has changed much. They allowed the Saints to rush for 157 yards at 4.5ypr and pass for 358 yards at 10.5yps. Detroit managed just 33 yards rushing at 1.7ypr and 198 yards passing at 5.8yps. Overall they were out gained 7.5yps to 4.0yps. I don't have any situations on this game. Minnesota has won six of seven games played here but none of those wins were by more than 10 points. Detroit has given up at least 25 points in 19 of their last 22 games. Ironically there were two games last year they allowed just 12 and 20 points and both of those games were against Minnesota. Over those 22 games they have given up an average of 33 points per game. I don't see Minnesota giving up more than 21 points in this game. Lean towards Minnesota and the over. MINNESOTA 33 DETROIT 21

New Orleans -1 PHILADELPHIA 46

Tough game to analyze with McNabb probably not going to play. I can't trust Kevin Kolb. NO looked very good last week against a poor Lions team as they averaged 4.5ypr, 10.5yps and 7.5yppl. They allowed Detroit just 1.7ypr, 5.2yps and 4.0yppl. Philly ran all over Carolina, 185-86 and 5.8ypr to 2.9ypr. They held Carolina to just 2.1yps but averaged just 2.6yps themselves. Overall they gained 4.2yppl to just 2.4yppl for Carolina. They sacked Carolina five times and caused seven turnovers (5 interceptions and 2 fumbles). I don't have any situations on this game. Numbers make this game a pick 'em (with McNabb) and total about 55 points. I would normally consider the over in this game but not knowing what I will get from the Philly qb's make that a tough call. Good game to sit on the sidelines. I will lean towards the team with the healthier qb. NEW ORLEANS 30 PHILADELPHIA 27

ATLANTA -6 Carolina 42

Carolina looked horrible last week and can't possibly look that bad again. They averaged just 2.9ypr while allowing Philly to gain 185 yards at 5.8ypr. They passed for just 83 yards at 2.1yps but did hold Philly to 2.6yps. Both teams lost or pulled their starting quarterback early in the game so the passing numbers probably do not reflect either team's ability to throw or stop the pass. Carolina was also sacked five times and committed seven turnovers. Atlanta won against Miami, 19-7 but they weren't that sharp in doing so. They averaged just 2.5ypr and 4.3yppl. They held Miami to 4.6yppl but did allow the Dolphins to average 4.4ypr. A 4-0 turnover margin for Atlanta helped pull out the win. For Atlanta, 12 of their 19 points came on extremely short drives. Prior to last years blowout here for Carolina, they had won three in a row here and the two years prior to that stayed within six points in each game. I don't have any situations on the side here but this game does qualify in early season under situations, which are 63-24-4 and 77-34-4. Numbers favor Atlanta by one point and predict about 40 points. ATLANTA 21 CAROLINA 17

WASHINGTON -10 St Louis 37

Washington lost but unfortunately covered late in their game last week against the Giants. Washington was out gained 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl in that game. Important to note Washington gained 72 yards on 7 plays on their last drive, while the Giants were in prevent mode. Otherwise Washington would have averaged just 4.7yppl. They did average 4.0ypr and allow the Giants just 3.3ypr but NY was able to throw for 8.3yps to 6.4yps for Washington. The Rams may be the worse team in football this year. They were blown out by Seattle, allowing 167 yards rushing at 4.9ypr, 279 yards passing at 7.8yps and 446 total yards at 6.4yppl. They were held to 4.3ypr, 4.4yps and 4.3yppl overall. I don't have any side situations on this game. The game does qualify in an early season under situation, which is 77-34-4. Numbers favor Washington by 12.5 and predict about 33 points. Rams won here last year 19-17 but were dominated in that game 6.0yppl to 3.7yppl. Three Redskin fumbles led to direct Ram points or kept Washington from scoring points. I'm not big in laying points like this but until the Rams actually step up and can score, it's hard to take them with points. WASHINGTON 23 ST LOUIS 10

JACKSONVILLE -3 Arizona 42.5

Jacksonville played a close game with Indy last week, losing 12-14 but they were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.1yppl. They did out rush Indy 4.4ypr to 2.3ypr but were out passed 294-114 and 7.5yps to 3.9yps. Arizona lost at home to San Francisco and really struggled to run the ball, gaining just 40 yards at 2.4ypr. They averaged just 5.5yps and 4.7yppl overall. They did, however, play very solid defense in limiting SF to just 21 yards rushing at 0.8ypr, 5.2yps and 3.4yppl. This is a good match up for an Arizona team that is better on offense and defense. Jacksonville struggled last year defending the pass, allowing 7.3yps to 6.1yps and after week one it doesn't appear they are any better this year. There are some questions as to if Arizona, without Todd Haley, can still create the dynamic offense they have had the last few years after a very poor preseason and last weeks lack luster performance. Arizona qualifies in an early season situation, which is 120-63-10. Numbers favor Jacksonville by just one point and predict about 54 points. The total is low and Arizona can still throw the ball, Jacksonville doesn't defend the pass well and either does Arizona. While Jacksonville isn't great throwing the ball they should have some success against a below average Arizona pass defense. Arizona was actually above average stopping the rush last year and could force more throws from Jacksonville in this game. ARIZONA 30 JACKSONVILLE 24

SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 Seattle 39.5

SF got a big win at Arizona last week but their numbers weren't very good. They were held to just 21 yards rushing at 0.8ypr, 182 passing yards at 5.2yps and 203 total yards at 3.4yppl. They held Arizona to just 40 yards rushing at 2.4ypr and more importantly the Arizona passing game averaged just 5.5yps and 4.7yppl. Seattle had no trouble with what might be the worse team in the league, gaining 167 yards rushing at 4.9ypr, 279 passing at 7.8yps and 446 total yards at 6.4yppl. They held St. Louis to just 77 yards rushing at 4.3ypr, 4.4yps and 4.3yppl. Seattle qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 535-406-30 and 176-93-13. Numbers favor Seattle by 1.5 points and predict about 40 points. Seattle has won five of the last six games played here. Seattle is a little banged up and lone concern here is SF ends up being too physical for Seattle. I like Seattle here. Points, history and value lie on their side. They should have the better offense and better quarterback along with better experience. A big game for the NFC West this week. SEATTLE 23 SAN FRANCISCO 16

BUFFALO -4.5 Tampa Bay 42

Buffalo lost a heart breaker last week at NE. They led the whole game until the last couple of minutes when they blew a double digit lead. They averaged 4.7ypr to just 3.2ypr for NE and passed for 6.4yps but did allow NE to average 6.8yps. Overall they out gained NE 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl but NE ran 29 more plays than Buffalo with their no huddle offense. TB lost at home to Dallas and were out gained 8.9yppl to 6.2yppl. The main trouble was three long scoring passing touchdowns that totaled 188 yards or an average of 63yps. Take away those three passes and they averaged just 2.3yps for the game. You can't take away those passes but all was not bad for TB. They blew three plays that cost them the game and if they do that each game they won't win a game. But, they did rush for 174 yards at 5.6ypr and passed for 276 yards at 6.6yps. They also allowed Dallas to rush for 118 yards at 4.9ypr. TB qualifies in an early season situation, which is 120-63-10 but they don't qualify in the best part of that situation. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 77-34-4. Numbers favor Buffalo by 3.5 points and predict 37 points. I will lean with TB and the under. BUFFALO 20 TAMPA BAY 17

DENVER -3 Cleveland 39

Cleveland hung tough for the first half last week but got blown out in the second half against Minnesota. They averaged 4.5ypr against a good Viking rush defense but allowed a good Minnesota rush offense to gain 225 yards at 6.1ypr. They also held Minnesota to just 3.3yps and sacked Favre four times. On offense they were only able to average 4.5yps and were out gained for the game 4.9yppl to 4.5yppl. Denver ended up winning their game with an 87 yard tipped pass in the final minute for a come from behind win. They averaged 5.9yppl to just 4.9yppl for Cincinnati and out rushed Cincinnati 3.8ypr to 3.2ypr. But, if you take away the 87 yard tipped pass, they averaged just 4.3yppl and 4.7yps instead of 7.3yps. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 535-406-30. Numbers favor Denver by three points and predict 46 points. This game qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 77-34-4. I need to see more of both of these teams, especially Denver before I can take them laying points, no matter how poor of a team they are playing. I will lean their way and towards the over despite the situation on the under. DENVER 24 CLEVELAND 20

SAN DIEGO -3 Baltimore 40

Baltimore played a close game with KC last week winning by 14 (tied with about three minutes left in the game) but they destroyed KC from the line of scrimmage. Baltimore out gained KC 501 yards to 188 and 5.9yppl to 4.3yppl. That included 198 yards rushing at 4.8ypr to 1.7ypr and 303 yards passing at 6.9yps to 5.9yps. SD scored in the last few seconds to defeat Oakland on the road, 24-20, but they were out played in the game. They were out rushed 148-77 and 4.6ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed 6.6yps to 6.2yps and out gained overall 5.6yppl to 5.1yppl. They also will be without Tomlinson and their center in this game. The Baltimore offense appears to be much better this year and the defense should be solid again. SD figures to be better on defense this year but they let Oakland do what they wanted on Monday night. Baltimore qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 535-406-30, 115-49-8 and 444-285-21. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 77-34-4. Numbers favor Baltimore by two points and predict about 47 points. Baltimore has the better defense and maybe the better offense at this point. That along with solid situations, value and getting points, all point towards a solid play. I think the Baltimore offense may be better than advertised and will lean towards the over despite the under situation. BALTIMORE 27 SAN DEIGO 20

Pittsburgh -3 CHICAGO 37.5

Pittsburgh got away with a win last week over Tennessee but were out played from the line of scrimmage in that game. They struggled to rush the ball, averaging just 1.6ypr while allowing Tennessee 3.4ypr. They did throw the ball well, averaging 6.8yps but allowed Tennessee 6.5yps. Overall they were out gained 5.2yppl to 5.1yppl. Chicago lost in the last two minutes of the game against GB and lost Brian Urlacher for the season. They also suffered a few other injuries that will impact them this week as well. Chicago out gained GB 5.1yppl to 4.2yppl, including out passing them 7.0yps to 4.7yps. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 2.8ypr. Pittsburgh qualifies in an early season situation, which is 82-36-9. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by five points and predict about 38 points. Chicago has played four elite teams at home the last two years and lost three of those four by at least five points. In the other game they destroyed GB 35-7 in a late season game in 2007 where Favre played terrible. Tough game to call for me. Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu and he is a big part of their defense. I will lean with Pittsburgh but I'm not willing to lay points on the road with them against Chicago. PITTSBURGH 21 CHICAGO 17

DALLAS -3 NY Giants 45

Both teams won last week and played well in doing so. The Giants are missing some key people in their secondary this week. While both teams won and their numbers looked good, the Giants numbers were probably a little better than Dallas when you look inside the numbers a little more. The Giants out gained Washington 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl and out passed Washington 8.3yps to 6.4yps. NY allowed a meaningless (for those that didn't wager on the game) drive to end the game where Washington gained 72 yards on seven plays. Take away that drive where NY played their prevent defense and Washington only averaged 4.7yppl for the game. Dallas out gained TB 8.9yppl to 6.2yppl, including out passing TB 12.3yps to 6.6yps and rushed for 4.9ypr. Dallas scored on three long passing plays, totaling 188 yards. When you remove those three plays, Dallas averaged just 2.3yps on their other 25 pass attempts. Obviously you can't remove those plays as big plays are a part of the game, but TB moved the ball in this game. They rushed for 174 yards at 5.6ypr so Dallas better be careful in this game. I don't have any situations on this game. Numbers make this game a pick 'em and predict about 51 points. I will lean towards the Giants and the over in this game. NY GIANTS 27 DALLAS 24

Indianapolis -3 MIAMI 42

A couple of deceiving scores last week as Indy defeated Jacksonville 14-12 but out gained Jacksonville 5.2yppl to 4.1yppl. Indy was out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.3ypr but they out gained Jacksonville 7.5yps to 3.9yps. Miami lost 7-19 at Atlanta but out gained Atlanta 4.6yppl to 4.3yppl. They out rushed Atlanta 96-65 and 4.4ypr to 2.5ypr. They were out passed 5.6yps to 4.8yps. They lost the turnover battle 0-4 and 12 of Atlanta's 19 points came on very short drives. Indy qualifies in an early season situation, which is 82-36-9 but Miami qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 124-63-5, 535-406-30 and 444-28-21. Numbers favor Indy by two points and predict about 41 points. Miami played four games at home last year against above .500 teams and lost by 6, 14, 20 and 18 points. Indy played seven games on the road last year against teams at .500 or above and they struggled to win any of those games by much. The largest victory they had on the road against the better teams was by four points and the largest victory margin they had against the poor teams they faced was seven points and that was against Jacksonville, who they needed an interception return late in the game to win by seven. Bad situations for both teams, IMO, and situations going both ways. Better opportunities down the road. INDIANAPOLIS 21 MIAMI 20

Doc's Sports

5 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati +9 over Green Bay
Top Game of the Week. The Bengals lost a game in dramatic fashion last week against Denver and thus the line is high this week against the Packers. But this is the NFL and everybody is a professional and there is no carryover from week to week. The Bengals have the better quarterback in Carson Palmer and I expect him to be able to move the football and put points on the board against this Packer defense. Last week QB Cutler beat himself with four turnovers and they still only lost by six points. This is an important game for the Bengals, as they do not want to fall to 0-2 on the season. While I do not think they can pull the straight-up victory, I expect them to play hard for 60 minutes. Green Bay 27, Cincinnati 23.

4 Unit Play. Take Detroit +10 over Minnesota
The Lions have yet to win a game since 2007, but they did put up some points in their blowout loss to New Orleans and that should bode well for their home opener against the Minnesota Vikings. This is just too many points to be laying for a road team facing a divisional opponent. The Lions took Minnesota to the wire last year in both games losing by a combined 6 points. This game reminds me a lot of the Oakland/San Diego game last week and while on paper it appeared to be a major mismatch, everyone starts the new season with a clean slate. Minnesota has to fight for sixty minutes to get the victory, but it will come much closer then what the experts believe. Minnesota 27, Detroit 23.

4 Unit Play. Take Over 46 in New Orleans at Philadelphia
The Saints may have the most explosive offense in the league and it was evident last week when QB Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes against the Lions. The Eagles may be without QB McNabb but the offense philosophy should remain the same, throw, throw, throw. That sets up a perfect situation for the over, as this will likely be a four hour game with a ton of passing and clock stoppages. These two teams met in 2007 and the Eagles came away with the victory and 63 total points were scored. We expect this game to only reach the fifties in combined scoring, but nonetheless, we should easily collect with the over. New Orleans 30, Philadelphia 27.

4 Unit Play. Take Miami +3 over Indianapolis
Home dogs have been big money in the bank on Monday Night Football and we expect this pattern to hold true once again when two playoff teams from last year met up in Miami. The Dolphins looked bad last week in Atlanta and this is a much more important game for them since they do not want to fall to 0-2 on the season. WR Gonzalez got injured in the Colts opener against Jacksonville and will not play in this game and thus the Colts will be without their No. 2 receiver. In the NFL, when good teams play, usually the team that needs it more gets the victory and with a road trip to San Diego on deck for the Dolphins, the Fish definitely need this more. Miami kicks a late field goal and the underdog and us both earn the straight-up victory. Miami 23, Indianapolis 20.

Strong Opinion Plays

#128 Take Pittsburgh -3 over Chicago

Vegas Sports Informer

4 Unit Play. Take Atlanta -6 over Carolina
Who has the better QB here? Matt Ryan who took the Falcons to the playoffs as a rookie or Jake Delhomme who has 11 turnovers in two games! I’m taking the Falcons with Matt Ryan and their tough at home. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Carolina is 1-5 ATS as an underdog.

2 Unit Play. Take San Francisco -1½ over Seattle
Head coach Mike Singletary has these 49ers playing some great football and this started from the end of last season. Sorry Seattle your not playing the St. Louis Rams again this week. San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in Week 2

5 Unit Play. Take Over 37½ Pittsburgh at Chicago
(Game of the Week) Both teams have lost star players on defense last week so we could see some TD’s in this game. If Aaron Rogers can pick apart the secondary of the Bears what is Roethisberger going to do. The Steelers are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Bears will need a better game from QB Jay Cutler and I can see the Bears offense scoring some points against this Steelers defense. The Bears are 20-8 O/U in their last 28 home games.

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take Jacksonville -3 over Arizona
Fading the Cards on their first east coast trip, as they were so poor last season away from the left coast. Kurt Warner looked flat out awful against the 49ers to open the season, and so we'll back the Jags here in their attempt to not fall two games back of the Colts in the division. Home favorite in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take Cleveland +3 over Denver
This play continues to go the opposite of the Broncos. Had it been anyone besides the sorry Bungals, and they would have made the Broncos pay for their poor play last Sunday. A fluke catch made them 1-0, but I think Cleveland can continue to exploit them, even if the Browns, too, aren't exactly lights out. We take a flyer on them with the points.

3-Unit Play. Take Indianapolis -3 over Miami
The Dolphins looked quite horrible to begin the year, so no reason to think they are all of a sudden going to be fine against Peyton Manning and company. Indy's defense is tops by any stretch of the imagination, but I think their unit is stronger than Atlanta's and we saw what the Falcons did to Miami. John Abraham had success getting to Chad Pennington, so I think Dwight Freeney can replicate that pressure and keep him out of sync and hopefully that means more turnovers. Indy minus the number on Monday Night.

THE NEVADA BOYS

10* CAROLINA PANTHERS +6
3* CAROLINA PANTHERS +220 ML

10* LA SPARKS +1