Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Club
5* Perfect System GOW
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: New York Giants +3/-115
The Dallas Cowboys play host to NFC division rival New York Giants on NBC’s featured Sunday Night NFL Game of the Week. Both teams enter off of wins in their season openers with the Giants defeating the Redskins and Dallas rolled past the Bucs as our NFL 5* Game of the Week last week.
This week we are playing against the Cowboys as they step up in class compared to the Bucs. Dallas was able to move the ball on the ground rushing for 118 yards on 24 attempts and Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw for a career high 344 yards in the 13 point win.
Giants got Osi Umenyiora back in their defensive lineup and it paid instant dividends as he scored a TD in their win against the Redskins last week. The Giants have been able to get pressure on Romo in the past and that leads to mistakes and big plays. On the other hand Eli has done some damage against the Cowboys in the past especially their secondary.
Dallas has struggled in the role of favorite during the month of September when both teams have winning records posting a record of 1-10 against the spread in this situation. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when facing a team that has allowed less than ten yards per completion season-to-date.
New York has covered eight of the last eleven meetings between the two teams and posted a record of 18-10 ATS against their division rivals overall. The Giants are 12-1 ATS as division underdogs off a non-division win and 10-1 ATS when taking on a .666 or better opponent. NY is 16-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date, 12-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense on the season and 9-0 ATS as an underdog on artificial turf after a SU win.
A check of the database gives us an NFL System that is active for tonight’s game and it says to Play AGAINST a non-Monday undefeated favorite with a TOTAL under 52 points off an ATS win in its last game and not before a Monday division road contest in its next game vs. an undefeated opponent off a non-OT ATS loss in its last game. These favorites are 0-14-1 ATS and fail to cover by an average of 11.8 points per game.
The Giants have the advantage in our TPR Index with a 2.77 point edge and our Math Model also favors New York by 3 points in tonight’s contest. So take the points here as the Giants shock the “Boys” on Sunday night in their new Billion dollar playhouse.
Graded Selection: 5* New York Giants 20 Dallas Cowboys 17
4* “Major” Underdog Dominator
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: St Louis Rams +10/-114
The Rams have to make a trip to the east coast to face the Redskins on Sunday afternoon in our nation’s capital. St. Louis just returned from a trip to the west coast last Sunday where they were blanked by the Seattle Seahawks 28 to 0. The Skins lost on the road as well losing 23 to 17 to the Giants in New York.
This appears on the surface to be all Washington since they gave the Giants some trouble and the Rams were shutdown completely in Seattle but once again we must remember this is the NFL and things are never as they appear.
Washington still has problems scoring points in fact they have scored 17 or fewer points in their last eleven games not a good sign when you are laying almost double-digits. The Skins rushed for 85 yards on 21 attempts and only threw for 187 yards on 19 of 26 passing.
One play can change the outcome of a contest and that could of been true for the Rams as they blocked a field goal last week versus the Seahawks and ran it back 49 yards for an apparent touchdown but it was called back because the Rams had twelve men on the field. If that play had not been called back the game would have been tied at 7 going into the half and we could have had a different outcome, not saying the Rams would have won but the deficit may not have been as large, you never know.
The Redskins are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date and 0-6 ATS at home when facing a team without a win after week 1 of the season, 9-18 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points off a SU loss and 1-8 ATS at home during September versus an opponent off a SU loss.
Play ON road underdogs of seven or more points after playing on the road before Monday, 12-0 ATS since 2008. Play ON a road underdog of 6 to 12.5 points when they were a road dog of 7 to 13.5 points last week and allowed less than 38 points and had less than five turnovers. These underdogs are 19-0 ATS and averaging covering the spread by almost 13 points per game. In fourteen of nineteen of these qualifying games have been won outright by the underdog.
With solid technical support and a favorite of almost double-digits that shouldn’t even be a small favorite against any team in the league we will back the visitor here as they keep this game close and cash the winning ticket on Sunday in DC.
Graded Selection: 4* St. Louis Rams 20 Washington Redskins 23
4* AFC “Major” Play of the Day
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Cleveland Browns +3
Cleveland makes the trip to the Mile High City to face the hometown Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The Browns enter today’s contest off a loss to the Minnesota Vikings while Denver used a tipped pass to score an 87-yard touchdown with 11 seconds left on the clock to defeat the Bengals 12 to 7.
This situation sets up well for the Browns with them 8-1 ATS off a double-digit loss and HC Mangini is 5-0 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit loss. Cleveland was actually winning last week versus the Vikings at the half with a 13 to 10 lead but the Vikings put up 24 unanswered to start the second half and went on to win 34 to 20. The Browns are 9-0 ATS off an underdog loss versus a non-division opponent when they were winning at the half and gave up more than seven points in the second half.
Denver looked horrible last week even in the win they only had 75 yards rushing on 20 attempts and 227 yards through the air on 17 of 26 passing. They ran a total of 48 plays for 302 yards with 87 of those coming on the one-in-a-million pass that was caught for the touchdown by Brandon Stokley. We don’t expect another finish like that and the Browns should have a chance to come away with the outright upset here as the Broncos have no business laying chalk against anyone at this point.
A check of the database gives us a system that is active for today’s matchup and it says In Game 2, play ON a road underdog of less than 10 points off a home underdog SU loss of 4+ points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a division SU win & ATS win of more than 7 points in its last game. These underdogs have posted a record of 14-0 ATS and averaged covering the spread by almost 10 points per game.
With strong technical support and a team that has really struggled in this situation we will take the points with the visitor as Cleveland surprises the Broncos and comes away with a SU victory in Mile High on Sunday.
Graded Selection: 4* Cleveland Browns 17 Denver Broncos 16
HalfBets
Cleveland v. Oakland OVER 9.5 -105 (8*) Best Bet
Nats +135 (7*)
Astros +160 (6*)
2 team parlay for $200 pays $580
Giants ML ev
Rockies ML ev
Big Daddy
12* Titans -6.5
Fairway Jay
20* Dog GOM Raiders
Kelso
15 Units La Angels (-150) over Rangers
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
Lenny Stevens
20* Philadelphia
20* Cleveland
10* Cincinnati
10* Carolina
10* San Francisco
Eddie Roman
Second Ever 20,000 Dime Scout System Lock of the Year
New England Patriots -3 over NY JETS
Forget about this game being close because the Pats are going to control it. All of a sudden, because the Jets beat the Texans, they are going to the Super Bowl. All of a sudden, because the Jets beat the Texans, they feel the need to call out the Patriots, a team who constantly owns them.
Let me give you a little history lesson. Last year, the Jets beat the Dolphins in week 1 and their home opener was against the Pats. Oh how the Jets and their fans were jumping up and down. Brady was out for the year, Favre was in NY, this was the Jets chance to embarrass the Pats. What happened you ask? The Jets lost 19-10 in a game the New England coaches completely outcoached the Jets coaches.
Now, it's a new regime but you know what, it's the same offensive coordinator for the Jets and Belichick isn't going to let him and a rookie QB beat him. And that's another thing, when did we start putting rookie QB's in the Hallf of Fame after 1 good week. Did I miss something here?
Listen, this is still the Jets against the Pats and the Pats are the better team with a better coaching staff. This is still a rookie QB against Tom Brady. I don't care how Brady looked last week, he got his feet wet, that's all. This week that offense will be much better and what is up with the Jets calling the Pats out. The Pats are not the type of team you want to call out.
Everyone is saying the Patriots reign of terror is over because they struggled with Buffalo. Playing as poorly as they did, guess what, they still won and they still own the Jets. They have won 8 straight at the Meadowlands and in about 7 of those games, the Jets thought they were going to win and never did.
The Pats once again make a statement this week and Sanchez will be welcomed to real life in the NFL. Easy 14 point winner for the Pats.
VIP Lock Club
KC -2.5
Psychic
Wise guy - Cle Browns
Major - NO Saints
NSA
20* NE -3.5 ( AFC GOY)
20* Det +10
10* Buf -4
10* Car@Atl Over 42
10* Cin +9.5
10* Sea +1.5
Street Rosenthal
*200 Milwaukee Brewers -181
I am taking the Brewers for another win today. I have the Brewers as 12-0 Since 2006 as a home 140+ favorite after a win they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series. I also, have the Brewers as 21-5 SU since 2005 as a home 140+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher. Finally, I have the Astros as 2-15 SU since 2007 as a 140+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. Take the Astros for the win
NEXT UPDATE AT 12:30 SO NO NEED TO KEEP HITTING REFRESH! THANKS
Chris Jordan
300♦ TENNESSEE TITANS
I don't know what to talk about first: the Titans' much better team, or the brutal offensive play calling of the Texans.
Either intangible works for me, cause I don't see the Texans having much of a chance today.
Let's start with the bad news for Texans fans ...
Houston's offense did not score any points last Sunday, and it is highlighted byarguably the most dangerous receiver in the game in Andre Johnson and an exciting complement at running back, Steve Slaton. I know Rex Ryan is in New York now and the Jets have a revamped defense, but this was the home and season opener for the Texans.
And they didn't show up in the least.
Not good.
So what happens in Tennessee, against a defense that has had an extra few days to rest since it opened the season two Thursdays back and lost a heartbreaker in Pittsburgh? Well, let's not forget that Houston signal-caller Matt Schaub was knocked out of the 2007 game in Knoxville, and was sacked three times and intercepted three times last year during his visit.
Again, not good; especially since the Texans have lost four straight in Nashville and are 1-6 overall. In the series - both home and away - the Titans lead 11-3.
Even better, the Titans are 10-2 after losing straight-up and have covered nine straight in the month of September.
Joyce Sterling
10* Chicago +1
Friends of Mike Lee
3* SD/Pitt Under