Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Play: Under 33FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Both teams are surprising the public starting this season 2-0. With all of Pittsburgh's QB woes, they beat two strong squads in Atlanta and Tennessee. This week Charlie Batch takes the helm due to injuries to Leftwich and Dixon. It doesn't matter who's calling the plays because Pittsburgh has yet to score a TD from scrimmage in regulation time. A lot of teams would not be 2-0 with an offense that has just 21 FDs and are 6 of 29 on 3rd down conversions. Their defense is ferocious. The stop unit has allowed just 52 YR per game. They have also forced seven turnovers. They shut down to very good RBs in Turner and Johnson. Tampa Bay's offense is in the same boat. QB Josh Freeman is progressing but has played two mediocre teams in Cleveland and Carolina. The Bucs offense has just 27 FDs and are 13 of 31 on 3rd down conversions. Their "D" is young but quick and motivated. They have yielded just 10.5 PPG. Both teams are having trouble finding the end zone. Both will play "smashmouth" football by running the ball up the middle and killing the clock. UNDER is 4-0 their L4 meetings 4-1 in the Steelers L5 games played in September, and 9-0 in the Bucs L9 overall. Take the UNDER.
Gold Medal Club
50* Minnesota
25* Giants
10* Carolina
10* Tampa Bay
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 6-5-1 +1.50% (5-6-1 -4.80% with Sports Monitor)
3% TENNESSEE +3
3% ATLANTA +3.5
3% WASHINGTON -3.5
3% PHILADELPHIA -3
3% NY JETS +2.5
3% INDIANAPOLIS/DENVER UNDER 48
NY GIANTS -3 Tennessee 43.5
Tennessee lost at home to Pittsburgh last week. They gave up a kick return for a touchdown to begin the game and along with seven more turnovers, never really had a chance. They were out rushed 3.2ypr to 2.1ypr but out passed Pittsburgh 4.9yps to 1.0yps and out gained Pittsburgh overall, 3.9yppl to 2.4yppl. Pittsburgh scored 19 points but 16 of those 19 points came on drives of 34 yards or less (and the kick off return) so the Tennessee defense played very well. The offense just couldn’t move the ball against a very good Steelers defense. The Giants were beaten up badly at Indy. They out rushed the Colts 4.8ypr to 3.7ypr, but that was probably more because Indy ran the ball 43 times, which watered down their rushing numbers. The Giants were out passed 9.3yps to 4.9yps and out gained overall 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl.
Tennessee averages 4.1ypr against 3.6ypr, 5.7yps against 5.3yps and 4.9yppl against 4.6yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 2.7yps against 4.7yps and 3.4yppl against 4.5yppl. The Giants average 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense, they are allowing 3.7ypr against 3.7ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl.
The Giants qualify in a negative early season situation, which is 87-38-9 and plays against the Giants here. Tennessee also qualifies in a week three situation playing on teams coming off of two homes games, which is 40-13-3. Numbers favor Tennessee by 3.5 points and predict about 49 points. Tennessee brings the better defense, offense, situations and plenty of value. That all lines up for a best bet on Tennessee. TENNESSEE 30 NY GIANTS 17
NEW ENGLAND -14.5 Buffalo 42.5
Buffalo went to GB and got throttled 34-7. They out rushed GB 3.9ypr to 3.4ypr but were out passed 8.8yps to 2.8yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.2yppl to 3.4yppl. Those offensive numbers make it tough to win against anybody. NE lost at the Jets 28-14 but they were competitive on the line of scrimmage, out passing the Jets 6.5yps to 6.1yps. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 2.6ypr. Overall, they were out gained 5.2yppl to 5.1yppl. NE turned the ball over three times, which didn’t help their cause.
Buffalo averages 3.6ypr against 4.7ypr, 3.0yps against 4.1yps and 3.3yppl against 4.3yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 4.8yppl. New England averages 4.0ypr against 3.2ypr, 6.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 4.8yppl. On defense, they are allowing 3.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 5.3yps and 5.4yppl against 4.7yppl.
Buffalo qualifies in a general situation, which is 55-25-1. They also qualify in a situation that plays on poor teams coming off a loss when their opponent is coming off a loss, which is 150-76-6, including 39-13-1 when they are greater than 10 point dogs. NE also qualifies in a negative situation, which is 42-17-0 and plays against them. Numbers favor NE by 15 points before accounting for the situations and predict about 53 points. Very hard to lean Buffalo’s way, knowing just how bad they are but I will do that along with the over. Buffalo has lost just three of the last 10 played here by more than today’s spread. NEW ENGLAND 30 BUFFALO 23
BALTIMORE -11 Cleveland 37
Cleveland fell to 0-2 with a home loss to Kansas City. They were out rushed by KC 3.6ypr to 2.8ypr but managed to out pass KC, 7.1yps to 5.9yps. Overall, they out gained KC 5.2yppl to 4.6yppl. For KC, 10 of their 16 points came on a drive of six yards and an interception return of 33 yards for a touchdown. Baltimore went to Cincinnati and played well, with the exception of four turnovers by Joe Flacco, which ultimately did them in. For Cincinnati, 12 of their 15 points came on drives of 34 yards or less. Baltimore out rushed Cincinnati 4.7ypr to 3.0ypr but were out passed 4.4yps to 3.8yps and out gained Cincinnati overall, 4.1yppl to 3.8yppl.
Cleveland averages 3.6ypr against 3.6ypr, 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.7yps against 5.4yps and 4.7yppl against 4.5yppl. Baltimore averages 2.7ypr against 3.2ypr, 4.8yps against 5.8yps and 3.9yppl against 5.8yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 3.7yps against 5.3yps and 3.9yppl against 4.7yppl.
Cleveland qualifies in the same situations as Buffalo above, which are 150-76-6 and 42-17-0. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 472-303-21. Cleveland has lost six of the past 10 games here in Baltimore by at least 13 points with another loss by 10 points. So, in seven of the past 10 games, they have lost by at least 10 points here, including being blown out each of the last two years. The Browns also have some serious questions with injuries this week. John Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS at home when installed as a double digit favorite. Baltimore has scored at least 27 in each of those five games, which means this total could be higher than expected. Numbers (using just this year’s which are still raw) favor Baltimore by just two points and predict about 25 points but I will lean higher than that. BALTIMORE 27 CLEVELAND 17
Pittsburgh -2.5 TAMPA BAY 33
Pittsburgh got a big win at Tennessee last week and got off to a great start with a kick off return to begin the game. They turned seven Tennessee turnovers into short drives that led to 16 of their 19 points being scored on drives of 34 yards or less, including the kick off return. They out rushed Tennessee 3.2ypr to 2.1ypr but only managed 1.0yps, while giving up 4.9yps to Tennessee. Overall, they were out gained 3.9yppl to 2.4yppl. TB got a big win on the road at lowly Carolina. While they were out rushed 3.6ypr to 2.8ypr, they did manage to put pass Carolina 7.1yps to 4.8yps and out gained Carolina overall, 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. They also benefited from a +3 in turnover margin.
Pittsburgh averages 3.9ypr against 4.9ypr, 4.6yps against 4.2yps and 4.2yppl against 4.5yppl. They allow 2.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.0yppl against 4.9yppl. TB averages 3.3ypr against 3.4ypr, 6.2yps against 6.7yps and 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.0ypr against 3.6ypr, 5.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.9yppl against 4.7yppl.
Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 698-569-44. They don’t qualify in the best subsets of that situation. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by two points and predict just 22 points. Pittsburgh has played two pretty good teams in Atlanta and Tennessee while TB has played just Cleveland and Carolina. Knowing who TB played, they are still below average on defense. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh appears to be back to a top level defense with the return of most of their starters. Dick LeBleau type defenses tend to dominate inferior teams and I expect that here today. I don’t expect much of a letdown with Charlie Batch at quarterback. PITTSBURGH 20 TAMPA BAY 10
Cincinnati -3.5 CAROLINA 38
Cincinnati got a big home win over Baltimore last week and really benefited from a +4 in turnover margin, thanks to four Joe Flacco interceptions. Those interceptions allowed Cincinnati to score 12 of their 15 points on drives of 34 yards or less. They were out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.0ypr but did out pass Baltimore 4.4yps to 3.8yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.1yppl to 3.8yppl. Carolina fell at home to TB and were -3 in turnover margin. They out rushed TB 3.6ypr to 2.8ypr but were out passed 7.1yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall, 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl.
Cincinnati averages 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 5.3yps and 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 3.2ypr, 5.4yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.8yppl. Carolina averages 3.6ypr against 3.8ypr, 4.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.0yppl against 4.9yppl. On defense, they are allowing 3.0ypr against 3.6ypr, 7.8yps against 6.5yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl.
Carolina qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 698-569-44. They don’t qualify in the best subsets of that situation. Numbers favor Cincinnati by eight points and predict about 46 points. Cincinnati is better than Carolina, who will start Jimmy Clausen this week. I just don’t see Carolina competing. Cincinnati is above average throwing the ball, while Carolina has been horrible defending the pass. The lone hope for Carolina is to get their running game going against a Cincinnati defense that has given up the run this year. CINCINNATI 23 CAROLINA 16
NEW ORLEANS -3.5 Atlanta 49.5
Atlanta came home and let loose on Arizona, winning easily 41-7. They were out rushed 9.1ypr to 4.9ypr but 80 yards came on one Arizona rush. Take away that rush and Arizona averaged 3.2ypr. Atlanta out passed Arizona 6.8yps to 4.3yps and out gained Arizona 5.7yppl to 5.6yppl. Again, remove that 80 yard rush and Arizona averaged just 4.0yppl. Give the Saints credit for forcing four SF turnovers last week that kept SF out of the end zone but other than the turnovers, SF easily won the battle at the line of scrimmage. NO was out rushed 5.5ypr to 2.1ypr, out passed 8.6yps to 5.9yps and out gained overall, 7.2yppl to 4.5yppl.
Atlanta averages 4.0ypr against 3.5ypr, 5.8yps against 5.1yps and 5.0yppl against 4.5yppl. They allow 5.9ypr against 4.9ypr, 5.6yps against 5.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. The Saints average 2.6ypr against 3.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 5.9yps and 6.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 282-195-22. Numbers favor Atlanta by four points and predict about 47 points. NO has struggled on offense this year and they are allowing big yards on defense as well. While Atlanta’s numbers aren’t good on defense, if you remove two long runs (50 yards in week one and 80 yards in week two), their rushing numbers are much better. Obviously they are part of the game but I don’t expect them to continue to give up such large runs every week. Better offense with Atlanta right now and about the same on defense. I’ll take a look at the dog. ATLANTA 31 NEW ORLEANS 17
San Francisco -2.5 KANSAS CITY 37
SF lost a tough game at home to NO on Monday night, much because they lost the turnover battle 0-4. But, they dominated NO from the line of scrimmage, out rushing NO 5.5ypr to 2.1ypr, out passing NO 8.6yps to 5.9yps and out gaining the Saints overall, 7.2yppl to 4.5yppl. KC got the win at Cleveland and finding ways to win are most important but they weren’t sharp in doing so. They did out rush Cleveland 3.6ypr to 2.8ypr but were out passed 7.1yps to 5.9yps and out gained overall 5.2yppl to 4.6yppl. KC also scored 10 of their 16 points on an interception return and a drive that traveled a whopping six yards. For the second consecutive week the KC offense performed poorly.
San Francisco averages 4.2ypr against 3.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.7yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 2.7ypr against 3.4ypr, 6.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The Chiefs average 4.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 4.5yps against 5.4yps and 4.4yppl against 4.7yppl. On defense, they are allowing 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.9yps against 7.6yps and 5.4yppl against 6.0yppl.
I don’t have any situations in this game. Numbers favor KC by 5.5 points and predict about 39 points. Again, early season numbers are raw and hard to trust. The Chiefs defense has played well this year but Matt Cassell has really struggled this year and I don’t see it getting any easier against a good SF defense. I think this is a good game to pass. All my indicators suggest value to KC but I believe SF is the better team fundamentally. SAN FRANCISCO 17 KANSAS CITY 16
MINNESOTA -11 Detroit 42.5
Detroit lost a tough game at home against Philly. They jumped out to a 17-7 lead, only to allow Philly to rattle off the next 28 points and fall behind 17-35 before storming back late to lose and, unfortunately for me, get the cover in a 32-35 loss. They were out rushed 5.8ypr to 4.4ypr but out passed Philly 7.0yps to 6.2yps. Overall, they out gained Philly 6.1yps to 6.0yps. Big plays on both sides helped to inflate the offensive numbers somewhat. The Vikings dropped a big game at home to Miami to fall to 0-2 on the season. They out rushed Miami 4.7ypr to 4.1ypr but were out passed 6.2yps to 5.3yps. Overall, they did out gain Miami 5.1yppl to 4.9yppl but that was more because they passed the ball 22 times more, which inflated their overall numbers. Favre also tossed three interceptions.
Detroit averages 2.9ypr against 3.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.6ypr, 7.7yps against 7.1yps and 6.3yppl against 6.1yppl. The Vikings average 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 5.6yps and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense, they are allowing 3.7ypr against 3.3ypr, 6.2yps against 5.6yps and 4.9yppl against 4.6yppl.
Detroit qualifies in the same situations as Buffalo and Cleveland, which are 150-76-6 and 42-17-0. Numbers only favor Minnesota by two points and predict about 36 points. Detroit has lost five of the last seven played here by at least nine points. I’d love to consider Detroit here but I just don’t trust Detroit’s back seven on defense. I’ll lean their way because of the situations but that’s as far as I can go. MINNESOTA 23 DETROIT 13
HOUSTON -2.5 Dallas 47.5
Dallas dropped a big game at home to Chicago and didn’t look good in doing so. Dallas managed just 1.8ypr and 36 yards rushing in that game. They did hold Chicago to just 38 yards rushing and 2.0ypr. Dallas was out passed 9.0yps to 7.3yps and out gained overall 6.3yppl to 5.8yppl. The Cowboys were also -3 in turnover margin. Houston fell behind early at Washington and managed to storm back to eke out an OT win 30-27. The Texans only managed 2.4ypr but held Washington to just 1.1ypr. Houston managed 8.2yps but allowed Washington to throw for a whopping 9.8yps. Overall, Washington out gained Houston 7.3yppl to 6.5yppl.
Dallas averages 3.3ypr against 2.5ypr, 6.5yps against 6.6yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.0ypr against 2.7ypr, 6.8yps against 8.4yps and 5.3yppl against 6.2yppl. The Texans average 4.8ypr against 4.8ypr, 7.4yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.7yppl. On defense, they are allowing 2.3ypr against 3.3ypr, 8.2yps against 7.7yps and 7.0yppl against 6.1yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Houston by .5 point and predict about 45 points. Dallas has struggled on the road since the beginning of last year when playing teams in games lined from -3 to +3. Or, in other words, when playing teams in a competitive situation they have struggled, going just 1-4 SU scoring just 10, 20, 7, 24 and 3 points in those five games. The Dallas numbers are good as usual but they struggle to put points on the board, even though they are able to move the ball and pick up yards, and that’s why their points per yards number is 29.3, which is considerably higher than the league wide average of closer to 16. If Dallas can’t score they will struggle to win this game. I’ll call this a three point game and let the spread dictate which way I lean. HOUSTON 24 DALLAS 21
Washington -3.5 ST LOUIS 39
Washington played a terrific game last week but couldn’t finish and lost the game in OT 27-30 after blowing a 27-10 lead. They only managed 1.1ypr but did hold Houston to 2.4ypr. Washington managed to throw for 403 yards at 9.8yps but also allowed Houston to throw for 468 yards at 8.2yps. Overall, Washington out gained Houston 7.3yppl to 6.5yppl. The Rams lost at Oakland 14-16 but didn’t play nearly that close to Oakland in this game. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.6ypr, out passed 5.9yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall, 5.1yppl to 4.3yppl.
Washington averages 2.7ypr against 2.7ypr, 7.6yps against 7.7yps and 5.9yppl against 6.2yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.9yps and 6.0yppl against 5.9yppl. The Rams average 3.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 4.4yps against 5.4yps and 4.1yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.7ypr against 5.4ypr, 6.1yps against 5.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl.
The Redskins qualify in a week three situation, which plays on teams playing on the road after playing their first two games at home, and is 40-13-3. Numbers favor Washington by 3.5 points and predict about 23 points. Washington is a much better team this year with Donovan McNabb at quarterback. And, when they play on the road, they are less likely to turn the ball over compared to previous years with inexperienced quarterbacks. The Redskins numbers are about average but they have just played Dallas and Houston, which is no small feat. Meanwhile, the Rams numbers are horrible and they just came off games against Arizona and Oakland. Washington has the better running and passing games along with a much more experienced quarterback. WASHINGTON 20 ST LOUIS 3
Philadelphia -2.5 JACKSONVILLE 44.5
Philly fell behind early at Detroit 7-17 but then stormed back to grab a 35-17 lead before allowing Detroit to score the games final 15 points as they held on to win 35-32. Philly out rushed Detroit 5.8ypr to 4.4ypr but were out passed by Detroit 7.0yps to 6.2yps. Overall, Detroit out gained Philly 6.1yppl to 6.0yppl. Detroit scored on a screen pass that went 75 yards. Without that play they would have averaged 5.1yppl. Philly scored on a 46 yard touchdown run. Without that play, they would have averaged 5.4yppl. Jacksonville was blown out at SD last week 38-13. They turned the ball over six times, were out rushed 5.0ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 10.9yps to 6.3yps and out gained overall 8.0yppl to 5.1yppl.
Philadelphia averages 6.4ypr against 5.8ypr, 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 3.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.0yppl. Jacksonville averages 3.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 5.9yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.4ypr against 3.4ypr, 9.1yps against 8.3yps and 6.9yppl against 6.0yppl.
Jacksonville qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 87-38-9 and plays against them here. Meanwhile, Philadelphia qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 698-569-44 but they don’t qualify in the best subsets of that situation. As long as Philly has Vick at quarterback, they are a dangerous team and Jacksonville struggles on defense, as we saw last week in San Diego and even in the first week at home against Denver. Philly has some injuries on the offensive line but with Vick he is able to get away from some of those breakdowns in protection. Philadelphia is better equipped to put a drive together than Jacksonville and with this number at -3 or better, they are worth the play. PHILADELPHIA 31 JACKSONVILLE 23
Indianapolis -5.5 DENVER 48
Indy dominated the Giants at home last Sunday night. They were out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.7ypr but they ran the ball 43 times and so their rushing numbers are probably watered down some because of just trying to get out of the game. They out passed NY 9.3yps to 4.9yps and out gained the Giants overall 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl. Denver took care of Seattle easily 31-14 but they benefited from +4 in turnovers. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 1.7ypr by Seattle but did manage to out pass Seattle 8.4yps to 6.4yps. Overall, Seattle out gained Denver 6.1yppl to 5.0yppl.
Indianapolis averages 3.8ypr against 3.3ypr, 7.8yps against 7.3yps and 6.3yppl against 5.9yppl. They allow 5.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.0yps against 7.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.8yppl. Denver averages 2.4ypr against 3.2ypr, 8.0yps against 7.5yps and 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.8yps against 6.7yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl.
Denver qualifies in a very strong situation, which is 70-30-2. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 63-25-2. Numbers favor Indy by five points and predict about 41 points. But, the Broncos have a lot of injury issues and their strength this year has been throwing the ball, which is what Indy has defended extremely well this year. The Broncos didn’t see a game total more than 39 points last year and totaled 45 in their game last week against Seattle. Indy can certainly score with the best of them but they have some injuries at WR with Garcon and on the offensive line with Johnson. I like the under here and will lean with Denver because of the situation but don’t trust them enough to make it a best bet. INDIANAPOLIS 21 DENVER 17
San Diego -5 SEATTLE 44
San Diego certainly benefited from six turnovers last week but they still throttled Jacksonville either way. They out rushed them 5.0yppl to 3.0yppl, out passed them 10.9yps to 6.3yps and out gained Jacksonville overall, 8.0yppl to 5.1yppl. Seattle lost at Denver but played decent with the exception of four costly turnovers. Three of those turnovers either came inside the Denver 30 yard line or inside Seattle’s own 15 yard line. They out rushed Denver 5.5ypr to 1.7ypr but were out passed 8.4yps to 6.4yps. Overall, they out gained Denver 6.1yppl to 5.0yppl.
San Diego averages 4.4ypr against 3.8ypr, 8.5yps against 8.0yps and 6.7yppl against 6.1yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.1yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 4.8yppl. Seattle averages 4.3ypr against 3.7ypr, 6.6yps against 6.5yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, they are allowing 2.0ypr against 3.2ypr, 6.2yps against 7.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.5yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Seattle by 5.5 points and predict about 41 points. SD has been pretty good offensively this year, obviously dominating last week but they dominated the game against KC as well but allowed special teams to kill them. Their defense is above average as well. Seattle is also above average on offense and has been extremely good on defense with much of that in their game against SF in week one. A strong lean towards Seattle in this game. SAN DIEGO 21 SEATTLE 20
ARIZONA -4 Oakland 39
Oakland played well at home over lowly St. Louis in their 16-14 win. They out rushed the Rams 4.3ypr to 3.6ypr, out passed them 5.9yps to 4.8yps and out gained them overall 5.1yppl to 4.3yppl. Arizona was blown out at Atlanta 41-7. They averaged 9.1ypr but if you take away an 80 yard touchdown run, they averaged just 3.2ypr. Meanwhile, they allowed 4.9ypr. They were out passed 6.8yps to 4.3yps and out gained overall 5.7yppl to 5.6yppl. Again, take away that 80 yard run and they would have averaged just 4.0yppl.
Oakland averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.7yps against 4.6yps and 4.7yppl against 4.5yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.9yps against 4.9yps and 5.2yppl against 4.5yppl. Arizona averages 6.8ypr against 5.2ypr, 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.4ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.1yps against 5.1yps and 4.8yppl against 4.6yppl.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. My numbers favor Arizona by seven points and predict about 51 points. A little too early in the season to trust the early season numbers but I will lean towards the over and towards Arizona but it’s a weak lean, at best. Bruce Gradkowski will start this game and I have more confidence in him holding up his end of the bargain to get this game over the total. ARIZONA 24 OAKLAND 17
MIAMI -2.5 NY Jets 35.5
The Jets came up with a big win over NE last week 28-14. The Jets out rushed NE 4.3ypr to 2.6ypr but were out passed 6.5yps to 6.1yps. Overall, they out gained the Patriots 5.2yppl to 5.1yppl and benefited from three NE turnovers. Miami won a big game at Minnesota. They were out rushed 4.7ypr to 4.1ypr but out passed the Vikings 6.2yps to 5.3yps. Overall, Minnesota out gained Miami 5.1yppl to 4.9yppl but that was primarily because they passed the ball 22 times more than Miami.
The Jets average 4.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.6yps against 5.3yps and 4.7yppl against 4.7yppl. They allow 1.8ypr against 3.2ypr, 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.3yppl against 4.8yppl. Miami averages 3.9ypr against 3.6ypr, 5.0yps against 6.3yps and 4.4yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense, they are allowing 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.3yps against 4.3yps and 4.2yppl against 4.2yppl.
The Jets qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 445-304-21 and 472-303-21. Numbers favor NY by one point and predict about 29 points. Both teams have some key injuries in this game. NY runs the ball better, throws the ball not as bad as Miami and is better overall on offense. Their defense has suffocated the run so far this year, which is what Miami wants to do. They haven’t defended the pass quite as well as Miami but overall on defense they are still better. And, the Jets have faced Baltimore and NE, while Miami has faced lowly Buffalo and a struggling Minnesota team. NY has won six of the past 10 played here in Miami and of the four losses, they have been by 2, 4, 4 and 27 points back in 2002. In other words, the Jets have been very competitive here in Miami. A four point loss wouldn’t get the money today but I look for the SU victory with the better offense and defense to this point in the season. NY JETS 20 MIAMI 10
Green Bay -3 CHICAGO 46
GB smoked Buffalo last week 34-7. They were out rushed 3.9ypr to 3.4ypr but destroyed Buffalo in the passing game 8.8yps to 2.8yps. Overall, GB out gained Buffalo 6.2yppl to 3.4yppl. Chicago came away with a huge win at Dallas. While they didn’t run the ball well, gaining just 38 yards at 2.0ypr, they held Dallas to just 36 yards at 1.8ypr. Chicago managed to out pass Dallas 9.0yps to 7.3yps and out gained the Cowboys overall, 6.3yppl to 5.8yppl.
Green Bay averages 3.7ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 5.2ypr against 5.0ypr, 3.8yps against 4.3yps and 4.4yppl against 4.6yppl. The Bears average 2.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 9.2yps against 7.3yps and 6.5yppl against 5.9yppl. On defense, they are allowing 1.4ypr against 3.1ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl.
This should be a very good game between two undefeated divisional rivals. Chicago qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 29-9-2. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 132-69-5, 445-304-21 and 182-96-13. Chicago will be without LT Chris Williams for this game. Green Bay may be without LT Chad Clifton and/or LG Daryn Colledge. First round draft choice Brian Bulaga can fill one of those spots so they should be okay if only one is out. Neither team is running or allowing much in the running game this year. GB’s defensive rush numbers don’t look good but when you remove Michael Vick’s second half numbers from week one, their rush defense is very good. Because the Packers won’t face that type of scrambler in this or most games, it’s an aberration rather than something that can be relied upon. The Packers dominated this series here for a number of years but are just 2-3 SU the last five years in Chicago with none of those games totaling higher than 42 points. Numbers favor Chicago by 4.5 points and predict only 37 points. I’ve been saying all year long you can just about mark GB down for 27-30 points per game and that might still be true but they will be tested by a good Chicago defensive front in this game. Final injury reports are not out yet. I will update this play by 10 pm central on Sunday evening. My only play here will be on Chicago, if there is a play. I doubt I will make a play on the under but I definitely lean that way. For now, until I update GREEN BAY 21 CHICAGO 20
Ben Burns
10* Blue Chip - 49ers / Chiefs Under
Situational GOY - Rams
Non Conference Best Bet - Seahawks
Early Shocker - Panthers
10* Div Top Play - Dolphins
Non Conference TOW - Colts / Broncos Under
Larry Ness
10* Legend - Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals may not look any worse the entire season than they do right now, after that embarrassing 41-7 loss to the Falcons last week. While some bettors may be scared off by Arizona now, I think this is a great time to back Ken Whisenhunt's club. Whisenhunt has done a great job in Arizona, leading this club to two straight postseasons (including the Super Bowl following the 2008 season), after the Cards had made just one playoff appearance from 1988 (when the team relocated in Phoenix) through 2007! His team is clearly in transition (particularly on defense) but Whisenhunt still has enough pieces to contend for the NFC West title once again (San Fran's 0-2 start hasn't hurt!). The offense has nice weapons in WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Steven Breaston plus I'm not as sour on QB Derek Anderson as most seem to be. He was a productive 22-41 for 297 yards in the team's Week 1 win at St. Louis (17-13) and I'm not going to 'jump ship' on him after a bad game in Atlanta (I was "all over" the Falcons LW!). RB Tim Hightower topped 100 yards against the Falcons last week and the Cards are averaging 115.0 YPG on the ground after two games, heady territory for a team which has averaged 90.0, 73.6 and 93.4 YPG in Whisenhunt's first three seasons. I'm giving the Cardinals a 'pass' in that Atlanta loss, as the Falcons were primed for a big rebound game in their home opener after that tough OT loss to the Steelers the week before. Arizona walks into a similar position here, as it looks to bounce-back from a road loss with the team's first home game of the 2010 season. I don't like what I am seeing with the Oakland Raiders, which should come as little surprise to anyone. Has coach Tom Cable already hit the panic button by benching QB Jason Campbell for Bruce Gradkowski? Campbell was hailed a savior for this franchise when he was signed as a free agent to provide some veteran leadership at the QB position after the disastrous JeMarcus Russell era was declared over. After just two games, is Campbell really being dumped for the journeyman Gradkowski? While he did bring a fighting spirit into the game when he played last season for the Raiders, Gradkowski still ended the season with a mere 54.4% completion percentage while averaging only 6.9 YPA. If Gradkowski was a capable answer, then why sign Campbell at all? Why is Gradkowski suddenly the more viable QB now? He is completing only 50% of his passes this year while just slightly raising his yards-per-attempt average to 7.4. This smacks of desperation. Internal discord can never be dismissed when discussing the dysfunctional environment of this franchise under owner Al Davis. Oakland does come off a gutty 16-14 win over St Louis last week but on the road the week before in Tennessee, the Raiders fell behind by a 24-6 halftime score, on the way to their 38-14 loss to the Titans. Oakland committed 10 penalties for 77 yards in that loss to Tennessee and followed that up with 12 penalties for 90 yards against the Rams. Oakland is averaging only 15.0 PPG which is right on target with its 12.3 PPG average last year. That '09 mark made Oakland the 31st offense in the NFL in scoring which matches its 31st ranking in total yards (266.1 PPG) as well. The defense was not much better either, as it ranked #23rd in scoring (23.7 PPG) and #26th in yardage (361.9 YPG) in '09. To make matters worse, Oakland currently has seven players listed as questionable for this game including star defensive end Richard Seymour and former first-round pick Robert Gallery at guard. I think that the Oakland team that lost at Tennessee by 24 points is closer to the one we will see on Sunday than the one which beat the lowly Rams last week. Let me close with what I wrote when I used the Titans over these Raiders for my biggest play of Week 1. "The Raiders went to the Super Bowl following the 2002 season (11-5 regular season) but lost 48-21 to the Bucs. The team hasn't won more than five games in ANY of the last seven years, going a combined 29-83 (.259). Oakland went 4-28 on the road (including two, 0-8 seasons) from 2003 through 2006 and has since gone 2-6, 3-5 and 3-5 away from home the last three seasons, respectively. Let's note that Oakland's six road losses in 2007 averaged 16.2 PPG, its five road losses in 2008 came by 16.0 PPG and the team's five road losses in 2009 averaged 19.8 PPG." Well, after that 24-point road loss at Tennessee in Week 1, Oakland's road woes are "right on schedule" for 2010.
10* NFL Total of the Month Detroit / Minnesota Over
Is Favre done? I must admit that as a fan, I'm enjoying his early season struggles, as the 'soap opera' which has surrounded Favre the last few years has worn me thin. That being said, this is about M-O-N-E-Y and I believe this is a perfect "breakout game" for Favre. Most know that the Lions entered the 2010 season on a 20-game road losing streak. Know how many points the Lions allowed in those losses? How about 32.6 per game! Now Detroit lost just 19-14 in Week 1 at Chicago (should have won, as the call in the end zone going against was BRUTAL) but let's not get too excited about the 19 points the 'D' allowed. Chicago QB Jay Cutler 'torched' the Lions for 372 passing yards in that contest. Last week, Michael Vick looked 25 again, passing for 284 yards (two TDs and no INTs). It was a home game but the Lions allowed 35 points. The LAST place the Lions want to visit this week is the Metrodome. The Vikings are a 'wounded' and ANGRY team. Look what Favre and Peterson accomplished in two meetings vs this Detroit defense in 2009. Favre completed 76.8 percent of his 56 passes without a single INT. Peterson ran fro 225 yards on 6.8 YPC. As for the Lions, don't worry about backup QB Shaun Hill backing down. He was 25-45 for 335 yards (two TDs and two INTs) last weeks vs the Eagles plus rookie RB Jahvid Best had two TDs running (one more receiving) vs the Eagles, giving him five TDs in his first two games as a pro. I see the Vikings racking up 35-plus points and this game easily going over the total.
Boston Blackie
Tampa Bay / Pittsburgh Over 33.5
Indianapolis / Denver Under 47.5
New York Jets / Miami Over 35.5
Maximum Football
15* Indianapolis Colts -5.5
10* NY Giants -3
Scott Spreitzer
10* Road Warrior Game of the Month - Dallas Cowboys
We had Houston on these pages in week one and cashed when they knocked off the Colts. We passed in week two, but have to admit being impressed with the spirited comeback and subsequent win against the Redskins. But this puts them in a very tough situation on Sunday, not to mention a talented Dallas team is in desperation-mode. The Cowboys may be the best 0-2 NFL team in a decade. The defense hasn't played badly. In fact, their weakness...the main reason they have lost their first two games, has been due to a lack of success inside the opponents' 30-yard line. But Dallas will have their regulars up front on offense for just the second time this season. Last week, it took some time to generate chemistry normally gained during preseason games. Now, after having played four quarters together, I expect better results for the Cowboys when they cross the 50. And let's not forget that we're talking about a talented Cowboy offense facing a permissable Houston defense. The Texans have allowed a total of 884 yards on 127 plays, an average of 7 yards per play. They've been torched through the air for an average of 430 yards passing per game on 68 of 95 (72%) passing! Houston is giving up 9.04 yards per pass, allowing four passing TDs and they're yet to pick off a pass. That's 65 pass attempts and zero interceptions. Even though the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, I believe Houston is "ripe for the picking." Dallas has outgained their first two opponents, 790-558, and they have 16 more first downs than they have allowed. The Cowboys have been an outstanding September dog, and I believe they're finally going to put it all together and gain their first win of the season. I'm taking the points with the Cowboys my 10* Road Warrior Game of the Month.
Bettor Wins
5 Units Cleveland Browns +10.5
5 Units Buffalo Bills +14.5
5 Units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Steve Duemig
25 Dime Steelers
15 Dime Titans
5 Dime 49ers
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Baltimore
Steven Budin
25 Dime - Houston
Trace Adams
1000* Baltimore Ravens
500* Cincinnati
Craig Davis
50 Dime - Baltimore Ravens
20 Dime - New England Patriots
Chuck O'Brien
30 Dime - Atlanta Falcons
10 Dime - Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Dime - Atlanta Falcons ML
Brett Atkins
30 Dime - Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Dime - Cincinnati Bengals
5 Dime - Miami Dolphins
Derek Mancini
25 Dime - Seahawks
5 Dime - Dolphins
Matt Rivers
150,000* NO Saints
75,000* Cincinnati Bengals
Jay McNeil
50 Dime - Houston Texans
Kiki Sports
3 Units Denver
2 Units Dallas
1 Unit Carolina
1 Unit Detroit
1 Unit San Diego
RAW
5* Minnesota
4* Dallas
4* Arizona
3* Atlanta
3* Green Bay
LPW Sports Forecast
10 Unit Game of Week - Dallas +3 over Houston
Critical game for Cowboys as they have backs to wall and come in as dog here! We expect at least some of the Cowboys issues to be corrected from previous 2 weeks and certainly motivation is there to avoid 0-3 start.This is a good spot for Cowboys and we grab points.
10 Unit Underdog Game of Week - Atlanta +3.5 over New Orleans
2 Games last Year were decided by 3 and 8 points margins Saints still look to be one of those teams that is struggling early to capture last years form and also have a roster filled with injuries! Saints had trouble slowing 49ers down last week and we feel they will have problems with Matt Ryan on Sunday.Atlanta 9-4 ATS last 13 vs NFC and Saints interestingly 2-7 ATS last 9 vs NFC.Take points
6 Unit Cincinnati/Carolina Under 38
6 Unit Tennessee/NY Giants Under 43.5
100 Unit Elite Access - San Francisco -3 over Kansas City
Chiefs a very fortuitous 2-0 with an offense that is one of the worst in league.San Francisco gave a performance against Saints many of us felt would start in week 1 against Seattle, but their is no doubt this is a 49er defense fully capable of shutting down KC.KC is 6-16 ats in last 22 games and 49ers should come into Sundays game hungry for a W and we fully expect what we saw from 49ers OL & Frank Gore Monday Night to continue here.49ers in control here and -3 is small price.Lay it
50 Unit Confidential Access - Dallas/Houston Over 47
We fully expect this to turn into a shoot out quite rapidly as Romo and Cowboys are due for some cohesion and this Houston defense should provide it! Houston allowing opponents to complete 71% of passes and have no Int's.Dallas defense also has no Int's on season.Houston is 19-7 Over in last 26 September games as we expect more of same here. Take Over
35 Unit Perfect Situation - NY Jets/Miami Under 35.5
This Miami defense will pose more of a challenge for Jets this week then Patriots last week.We simply dont know where these points are coming from as these 2 teams are familiar with each other and both defenses are styfling! Under is 20-8 following Dolphins last 28 wins and we see this game around 30.
35 Unit Perfect Situation - New England -14.5 over Buffalo
We are not a big chalk fan, but it is hard to look past the potential mismatch here and blowout capacity if Brady & Co. come to play on Sunday.Pats off tough loss to Jets and should be focused against an absolutely awful Buffalo Offense.Pats 22-8-1 ATS last 31 games following su loss and Bills 4-9 ATS last 13 vs AFC East! Rout !
David Banks
Lions +11.5
Steelers -2.5
Falcons/Saints Over 49
Eagles -2.5
Seahawks +4.5
Colts -5.5
Jets/Dolphins Under 35.5
Yankees -140