Tim Trushell
20* Carolina Panthers
Erin Rynning
20* Seattle Seahawks
10* Titans/Giants Under
10* Carolina Panthers
Great Lakes Sports
5* GOM Dallas
4* Cincinnati
3* Indianapolis
Best Picks
Baltimore -10
Dallas +3
SF -140
Anthony Redd
50 Dime - Atlanta
Bob Valentino
40 Dime - Miami
Stephen Nover
100 Dime - Baltimore Ravens
Cowtown Sports
5* New England -14.5
3* San Francisco -3
3* Philadelphia -3
Totals 4 U
Early Plays
Triple Lock Parlay
NYG OVER 43.5
Balt UNDER 37
Cincy UNDER 38
Reg Plays
NE OVER 42.5
Atl OVER 49
SF UNDER 37
Dall OVER 47
Late Plays
Top Play
NYJ UNDER 35.5
Reg Plays
Wash UNDER 38.5
Jax UNDER 44.5
SD OVER 44
Ariz UNDER 39.5
Jeff Benton
25 DIME - RAVENS
10 DIME - FALCONS
RAVENS
Before we get to Baltimore’s struggling offense – which I think is going to absolutely explode today – let’s first focus on the Browns’ offense. In two games against the Chiefs and Bucs – whose defenses are decent but not exactly on par with the Steelers or Ravens – the Browns have 28 tallied points, including exactly ZERO points after halftime. Go back to the preseason and Cleveland has generated 17, 13, 14 and 14 points in four of their last five contests.
Seneca Wallace gets his second straight start in place of the injured (and hapless) Jake Delhomme, and the career backup was less than stellar in last week’s 17-14 home loss to Kansas City, going 16-for-31 for 229 yards, one TD and one pick (which was returned for a touchdown that essentially cost Cleveland the game). Now Wallace runs up against a Baltimore defense that’s surrendered zero touchdowns and eight field goals in two games.
It’s the same Baltimore defense that limited the Browns to exactly THREE points in two meetings last year, which the Ravens won by scores of 34-3 (home) and 16-0 (road). In fact, Baltimore is 4-0 SU and ATS against the Browns the past two seasons, posting a cumulative score of 115-40 and a cumulative yardage advantage of 1,455-792. In those four games, Cleveland has averaged 73.5 rushing yards per contest; Baltimore has rumbled for 153.5 ypg on the ground.
Yep, the word “dominant” comes to mind when discussing recent Baltimore-Cleveland matchups!
Of course, for that domination to continue, the Ravens’ offense is going to have to wake up. Clearly, I believe that will be the case. Because after going on the road and producing a total of 20 points against the Jets and Bengals – two playoff teams from last year that ranked first and fourth, respectively, in total defense in 2009 – Baltimore finally comes home and gets to face a defense that’s far less imposing. Yes, I know the stats show the Browns have given up just 17 and 16 points in the first two weeks of the season. However, they faced two of the most anemic offenses (Kansas City and Tampa Bay) and two of the shakiest QBs (Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman) in the NFL.
Today, Cleveland’s defense has to figure out a way to contain the Ray Rice/Willis McGahee RB combination; the Derrick Mason/Anquan Boldin/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Todd Heap pass-catching combination; and an angry QB in Joe Flacco who is looking to atone for his 154-yard, four INT disaster at the Bengals. Because Baltimore’s success this season is more or less tied to Flacco’s ability to continue improving in his third NFL season, I fully expect Ravens coach John Harbaugh to unleash Flacco in this game (he needs to rebuild the kid’s confidence).
Keep in mind that Flacco led the Ravens to those four blowout wins over the Browns the last two seasons, posting a stellar 96.0 QB rating (67.3 percent completion rate, 874 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). Without question, after two weeks of Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman, the Browns secondary is in for a big time wake-up call today.
Finally, check out these trends: The Browns have now failed to cover in five straight September games (talk about a team that’s slow to get out of the gate), and they’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog (0-2 in that role against Baltimore last year) and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 after a non-cover (meaning they don’t bounce back very well).
Meanwhile, the Ravens have cashed in seven of eight September games (the seven-game streak was broken at Cincy last Sunday), five straight as a double-digit chalk and eight of 11 after either a SU and ATS setback (strong bounce-back team). Additionally, Baltimore is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games, 13-6 ATS in its last 19 when laying points and 42-17-1 ATS in its last 60 as a home favorite (including 5-2 ATS as a home chalk against Cleveland).
Forget Minnesota-Detroit or New England-Buffalo – THIS is by far going to be the biggest blowout of the day. Ravens 34, Browns 6.
FALCONS
First and foremost, I’ve been completely unimpressed with the Saints in their first two games. They scored touchdowns on their opening possessions against the Vikings and 49ers, but aside from that, they haven’t done anything offensively – and that’s before Reggie Bush suffered a broken leg that will sideline him for more than a month. And make no mistake: Bush’s loss is huge, because not only can he score any time he touches the ball – including in the return game – but his mere presence on the field forces the defense to account for him, which opens things up for Drew Brees’ other weapons.
In Monday’s lucky win at San Francisco, the Saints got punched in the mouth all night, and now they have to turn around on a short week and face a division foe that’s coming off a blowout 41-7 victory. Yes, it was against the crappy Cardinals, but Atlanta was dominant in all phases, finishing with huge advantages in first downs (33-11), rushing yards (221-118), passing yards (223-149) and time of possession (40 minutes to 20 minutes).
After getting pummeled by the ferocious Steelers in Week 1, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was sensational against Arizona, going 21-for-32 for 225 yards, three TDs and no turnovers. Now he faces a Saints defense that was picked apart by Alex Smith on Monday night!
Last year, the Falcons cashed in both meetings with the Saints, despite the fact Ryan and starting RB Michael Turner missed one of the games with an injury. Granted, Atlanta was a double-digit underdog in both games, but in the one without their two best offensive players, the Falcons only lost by three points (26-23). Furthermore, Atlanta has been outstlnding when coming off a big win (4-0 ATS in their last four following a victory of more than 14 points), and the Falcons are on addition pointspread upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 13-6 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
On the flip side, New Orleans now how just four spread-covers in its last 15 games since the middle of last season, going 2-9-1 ATS in its last 13 regular-season contests. In those 13 games, New Orleans is 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite of more than a point, and it has failed to cash in six of its last seven NFC South battles.
Platinum Plays
Premium Plays (Top Play)
SF -2.5
SD -4.5
400K Play
NE -14.5
300K Parlay
NYJ +2.5
NYJ Over 35.5
Reg Plays
Cincy -3
NYG -3
Balt -10.5
Minn -11.5
Phil -3
Indy Under 47
Wash -4
Rockey Sheridan
7* Cincinnati Bengals -3
5* Denver Broncos +6
5* Miami Dolphins -1
Keith Martin Sports
Patriots Over 42
Steelers Over 32
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Cowboys
Lions
Redskins
Jaguars
Coach Ron Meyer
NFL GOM - Steelers -2½
DOUBLE DRAGON
49'ERS -2.5
BENGALS -3
COWBOYS +3 (-120)
SEAHAWKS +4.5
PACKERS -3
MTi Sports
4'* Rockies Under
4* Dodgers Under