Tony George
San Diego -5
Now that the Chargers debacle at KC on opening day is behind them, they find themselves healthy and on the road laying a bad number against a Seattle team who shocked in week 1 as San Fran gave them a game, but were soundly hammered at Denver last week where I was all over Denver in that one. Chargers have way too many weapons, and I doubt the Seahawks, who had more player turnover than any other team in the NFL last year, not to mention an entire new coaching staff, cant stand up to the best team in the AFC west, as they faced the second best team last week and look what happened. Chargers roll, forget the 5 to 5.5, they win by 10. Play 1 Unit on the Chargers
Play 1 Unit 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease the Cowboys to +9 and Baltimore to -4.5
Marc Lawrence
Oakland Raiders +4.5
Arizona returns to Glendale for its home opener Sunday when the host Oakland in a situation that highly favors the Raiders. That's because, according to our powerful database, non-division home dogs or favorites of five or less points in Game Three playing their home opener are 9-26-1 ATS, including 1-16 ATS if their opponent is not off an ATS win. With the Cardinals just 7-23 ATS in their las 30 home openers, we'll grab the points in this matchup here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Oakland.
Rocketman
3* Carolina +3.5
Carolina will start rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen today against hte Bengals. I didn't feel like Matt Moore was the answer in Carolina so let's see what Clausen can do. Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Cincinnati is allowing 38 points per game on the road this year. Carolina is 2-0 SU and ATS at home vs Cincinnati since 1992. Bengals are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite. Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Bengals are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. We'll play Carolina for 3 units today!
Lenny Del Genio
Buffalo +14.5
In retrospect, we were quite fortunate to get a win against the Bills in Week 1. As we detailed in our AFC East GOY on Miami, that play was more about line value as when you look back at this season the number of times you can get away with laying only three points against Buffalo will be few and far between. And the Dolphins were LUCKY to cover for us, needing a late safety to preserve the ATS win. Last week, our suspicions were confirmed as the Bills were double-digit dogs and got blown out at Green Bay 34-7. They find themselves in a similar price range Sunday against the division rival Patriots and we understand that not many of you will want to touch Buffalo with a 50 ft pole. However, this is a tough spot for New England, who is off a division loss to the Jets and probably should not be favored by this much against anybody. They might also be caught looking ahead to Miami next Monday night. Check this out: Home Favorites of 10.5 or more, off a SU loss as a favorite are just 14-42 ATS since 1983 when taking on a division opponent. The Pats running game is downright laughable and the defense is not what you'd expect from a Belichick coached team as the pass rush is non-existent. While they have absolutely owned the Bills in recent years (won 9 straight here at Foxboro), let's note that LY's two meetings were decided by a total of eight points with NE scoring only 25 and 17 pts. Buffalo has covered eight of its previous 12 road games, including a near upset of the Pats in LY's season opener. Buffalo is our Oddsmaker Mismatch
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* NO Saints -3.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Atlanta is both 1-1 SU and ATS to start the year; when faced with what can now be considered one of the best defenses in the league in Week 1, it lost 15-9 @ Pittsburgh; last week it rebounded against a porous Arizona secondary for a 41-7 annihilation in front of the home town crowd (my *10* **CODE RED** BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH), easily covering as a 6 1/2-point favorite.
Now the Falcons hit the road to take on a Saints team, that although is 2-0 to start the year, still feel like it hasn't been performing nearly as well as they should be on the offensive side of the field.
Although its second in the NFC in the scoring defense department, there is no question that this team has already given up too many "big plays"; I believe they'll have a long day Sunday vs. Drew Brees and his even different receivers.
I believe the absence of Reggie Bush is not necessarily a bad thing as I look for Brees to really open it up through the air.
It's interesting to note that Atlanta is in fact 5-6 ATS over the last two seasons as an underdog 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points.
On the other side of the field: New Orleans is 1-1 ATS to start the year. In Week 1 it shut down Favre and the Vikings, winning 14-9; last Monday it barely held on for the 25-22 win on the road over the 49'ers, failing to cover the 4 1/2-point spread.
When the Falcons visited the Super Dome last year, Bree was 31 of 40 for almost 300 yards with three TD's.
Brees on improving on the offensive side of the ball this week; “The big thing is we’re 2-0, so we’ve found a way to win these games and that’s the most important thing, albeit the most important statistic are there which is ball security, taking care of the football. There haven’t been as many yards, maybe not as efficient on third down and in the red zone as we want. The thing that I see is when we’ve gotten turnovers, we haven’t’ taken great advantage of them, which is frustrating for me and our offense and yet despite all of that because of the key statistic of ball security as well as other things such as defense, special teams wise, we’re 2-0. As I look at it, it’s just a matter of execution, getting back into the flow and rhythm just as you get back into playing games and the so-called midseason form where you’re just back in the routine of playing on Sundays again. We have the routine through the week again. Our preparation’s good. We’re spreading the ball around. Everybody’s getting their touches and opportunities. I look forward to us getting into that rhythm.”
New Orleans has excelled in this position over the last two seasons; 10-5 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2-points; 16-10 ATS as a favorite; 11-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd; 7-2 ATS in the month of September (which means of course that this team likes to hammer teams "out of the gate"; something we haven't seen yet).
Bottom line: Brees continues; “This is a tough division. Anytime you play a divisional opponent there’s a lot of familiarity there and you just know that there are always close games. They’re always fighting. You both know each other’s personnel pretty well. I think a lot of it is about who can out-execute the other. It’s not about fooling them with trick plays or anything else. It’s just about lining up and being able to play better. They have a good football team and obviously they’ll be ready to play us. It’s a big challenge.”
As usual, Brees isn't "looking past" or underestimating his opponent; “As I said before, I think they’re as talented on defense as I’ve ever seen them. They’ve got very active and athletic front four as well as some linebackers that can fly around, make al of of plays and a lot of tackles, get involved in the pressure packages quite a bit. Everybody in their secondary is pretty athletic with pretty good ball skills and I just think they work well as a group collectively. Once again, it’s all about execution for us offensively.”
I believe that the Saints will move the ball on offense and that the Falcons will have difficulty;
Mike Lineback
SF 49ers -2.5
Bob Balfe
Dallas Cowboys +3
If there ever was a must win for the Cowboys, it is today, and I love their chances. I do not think Dallas is a bad football team. They simply had some offensive line problems in Week 1 and ran into a very good team last week. The Texans had to come from behind against the Redskins last week which was impressive, but I do not think they are ready to run the table just yet. Dallas has a huge size advantage on offense and should get their offense rolling today. The Cowboys are going to bring the defense today as well and show the NFL that they are indeed a quality playoff team. Take Dallas.
Phillies/Mets Under 8.5
The Phillies winning streak came to an end last night and it might be hard to get that next big win to clinch the division as soon as they expected. The weather is cooling down in Philly, which will make it harder to hit home runs, especially with a strong wind coming in towards home plate. Look for this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under.
Paul Leiner
25* Bengals -3
MTi Sports
Chargers / Seahawks Under 44.5
Seattle’s scoring output looks healthy at first glance, but a closer inspection reveals flaws. They had TD drives of 22 and 13 yards so far this season and their defense scored on an interception return. Seattle’s time of possession this season has been an average of 24:54 – dead last in the AFC. Wow.
We expect that the Chargers’ defense will be able to take the pressure off their offense and we expect the Chargers’ offense to control the clock with their rushing game. San Diego is 0-7 OU after week 2 when they are facing a team that has averaged fewer than 30 pass plays per game, staying under by an average of 8.2 ppg.
Last week the Chargers took advantage of a Jaguars’ team that threw four interceptions and lost two fumbles. San Diego was at home off a Monday Night loss and treated the home fans to a 38-13 blowout. Here they are on the road off a win so they should be more conservative.
The evidence we have is a league-wide system that states, NFL teams are 0-12 OU (-8.2 ppg) on the road when they are off a win in which they rushed for 150+ yards and benefited from at least four turnovers.
The Seahawks were forced to pass too much last week in Denver and we expect them to return to the rush here. The league as a whole is 0-8 OU (-9.6 ppg) as a dog the week after they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average as a dog.
As a team, the Seahawks are 0-7 OU (-7.9 ppg) when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least 24 points and at least 100 yards more than their season-to-date average.
To but it bluntly, this line should be something like 42. 44.5 is too high and both 43 and 44 are key numbers. Take the UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 24 SEATTLE 13
Gold Sheet LTS
2* Bengals
1'* Ravens
1* Saints
1* Seahawks
Wayne Root
TV Game - Miami
Fav of Week - Arizona
Millionaire - Jacksonville
Billionaire - Denver
No Limit - Tampa Bay
Pinnacle - Minnesota
Blazer
3* Falcons Under
Seabass
300* Tampa Bay
100* Denver
100* Carolina
200* Steam Minnesota
The Duke's Sports
Tennessee (+3) for 2.5 Units
Last week, the Giants played uninspired football --never into the game against Indianapolis. The Giants' bread and butter of their Super Bowl year was their run game; however it is now no longer feared. Tennessee is playing well defensively and we'll look for them to put the clamps on the Giants' run game forcing NY into a one dimensional team in the air -- not their character. On the other hand, the Giants' run-stop unit was gashed for 160 yards by the Colts -- not known for their running game. Surely, we'll see a heavy dose of explosive Chris Johnson who will make the game more manageable for QB Vince Young. Technically, New York is 1-7 ATS at home vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS loss, and they're just 1-5 ATS at home vs a non-division opponent off a SU favorite loss. Like Fisher in the dog role here who is 10-1 ATS as a .500 opponent off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss. And the Titans are a sweet 9-0 SU in their last 9 vs the NFC. TN the call.
ASA
4* Tennessee
4* Baltimore
3* Dallas
Must Win Sports
5 Units Bengals Buy Half
Frank Patron
Cincinnati Bengals -3
MTi Sports
4'* Lions +11.5
4'* Redskins -3.5
igz1 sports
3* San Francisco -2.5
JOYCE STERLING
10* TAMPA BAY
CLEVELAND
BUFFALO
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS ROAD WARRIOR GAME OF THE MONTH
Dallas +3
Ethan Law
2% KC Chiefs +3
Executive
300% Carolina +3
300% Arizona -5