The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
HARDCORE NFL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE MONTH
Cincinnati -3
BIG AL
NFL CHAMPIONSHIP CLUB WINNER
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Houston. The Cowboys are probably one of the best 0-2 teams in NFL history. After all, they outgained the Redskins in Week 1 380 yards to 250. And then also outgained Chicago last week 410 yards to 308. In contrast, the Texans are 2-0, yet were outgained by the Colts in Week 1 463 yards to 355! Here, the Cowboys fall into a great bounce-back situation, as Dallas was upset last week as a 7-point home favorite. They've been installed here as a 3-point road underdog, and now fall into 53-17 and 98-56 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 98-56 ATS angle. What we want to do is play on any Road Dog of +3 or more points, which is off an ATS loss as a fave of -7 or more, and is now matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win. Take Dallas + the points over Houston. NFL Championship Club play on the Cowboys.
ROADKILL
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers come into this game off back to back upset wins over Atlanta and Tennessee, but will be hard-pressed to make it to 3-0 this afternoon. The Steelers received a blow when starting QB Dennis Dixon was injured last week, so now they will turn to veteran Charlie Batch to lead them. Needless to say, I'm not a huge fan of Mr. Batch. And, even worse for the Black and Gold, they fall into a dismal situation today off their 2 upset wins. Consider that unrested road teams off 2 upsets are a poor 28-57 ATS vs. non-division foes, provided our 'play-against' team is NOT getting more than 7 points, including an awful 3-15 ATS when favored by more than 2 points. NFL Roadkill on Tampa Bay.
Youngstown Connection
Carolina +3
Greg Price
10* Upset Special Rams
DR BOB
3 Star Selection
Washington (-3.5) 27 ST. LOUIS 14
The Rams are still the Rams, which means that beating a decent team is not something they’re likely to do (unless they’re coming off a bye week). In fact, St. Louis is just 5-27-1 ATS in their last 33 games, not off a bye, when facing a team that does not have a losing record. They’re just 2-31 straight up in those games and I certainly don’t mind taking my chances with a better than average Redskins team. Washington has played pretty evenly (5.9 yards per play to 6.0 yppl) with two good teams (Dallas and Houston) while the Rams have been out-gained 4.1 yppl to 5.6 yppl by a mediocre Arizona team and a still bad Raiders team. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford may eventually be a very good quarterback but he is just a rookie averaging a pathetic 4.4 yards per pass play thanks to a bad receiving corps and a bad offensive line. The Rams’ defense has been run over for 5.0 ypr and their pass defense is still worse than average (allowing 6.1 yards per pass play to Arizona and Oakland is not good). Redskins’ quarterback Donavan McNabb struggled on opening night against a good Dallas pass defense, but he’s now averaging 7.6 yppp with zero interceptions (he’s among the best all time in lowest interception percentage) and should have another good game today. My ratings favor Washington by 11 points in this game and the Redskins apply to a 33-14-2 ATS game 3 road opener angle (road teams are good bets after starting the season with 2 home games) while the Rams apply to a negative 8-28-1 ATS game 3 angle that plays against winless teams. I’ll take Washington in a 3-Star Best Bet at-4 or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
2 Star Selection
Philadelphia (-2.5) 26 JACKSONVILLE 16
The Eagles let me down last week by going into a prevent defense with 4 minutes left in the game and turning an 18 point lead into a 3 point win at Detroit. I’ll be back on Philly this week against a defenseless Jaguars team that has given up 420 yards at 7.0 yards per play in games against Denver and San Diego. The Jags had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year and they could be worse this season, having allowed 9.1 yards per pass play in their first two games. Michael Vick is throwing the ball about as well as I expected, as his 6.2 yards per pass play has come against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback (his career rating is 0.7 yppp worse than average), but he’s not making bad throws (zero interceptions) and his running more than makes up for his sub-par passing numbers. Vick should post good numbers against a bad Jacksonville pass defense and the Eagles are running the ball well with Vick and LaSean McCoy (7.0 ypr as a team this year) – although I don’t expect McCoy to continue to average 6.7 ypr (his career average is 4.45 ypr). Jacksonville has an offense that is 0.2 yppl better than average but Philly’s defense is solid and I don’t expect the Jags to be able to keep up with what their defense allows. My ratings actually only favor the Eagles by 3 ½ points (by 5 ½ using this year’s stats only), but the Eagles apply to a very good 111-43-4 ATS statistical match up indicator as well as a 27-4 ATS game 3 situation. This game also applies to a 60-26 UNDER angle, which is why I have the game lower scoring than the 47 points that my ratings project. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or better (at -125 odds or better).
Opinion
Tennessee (+3) 19 NY GIANTS 17
The Titans beat themselves last week in Pittsburgh, losing 7 turnovers on offense and losing on the scoreboard 11-19. Tennessee only averaged 4.0 yards per play, but their defense held Pittsburgh to just 127 total yards and 2.4 yppl and that unit has yielded just 3.5 yppl in the first two games. New York has out-gained the Panthers and Colts by a combined 5.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl, dominating Carolina and getting dominated by Indy, but overall they’re playing about the level I thought they’d play. The Titans, meanwhile, are better defensively than I thought they’d be and my ratings favor the Giants by just 1 point in this game. Tennessee also applies to a solid 33-14-2 ATS road opener angle, as road teams in week 3 that played their first two games at home have historically been good bets, especially against a team coming off a loss. I like the Titans plus the points in this game and I also like the Under based on a 60-26 ATS Under angle. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Teddy Covers
Red Sox/Yankees Over
1. Asa 6 4-tenn, balt, 3-dall
2. Ats 9t 6-mn, 5-sd, 4-jets, atl
3. Ben burns 8 10-mia, sf under, 9-caro, indy under, 8-st l, sea
4. Big money 1t mn
5. Blazer 3-atl under
6. Carolina sports 5-atl, 3- cinn, jax, sea under
9. Gameday 4 4-balt, 2-cinn
10. Inside info 3-caro, 1-wash
11. Joe d 20-pitt, 15-cinn, indy
13. Lt profits 3-tenn, 2-tb, sd under
14. Lenny stevens 20-caro, dall, 10-ariz, mia
15. Million club 9t 2-phil under
16. Nationwide (goldst) 7 super 7: Cinn, top: Balt, reg: No, sea
17. Neri 3- wash, phil, indy
18. Northcoast 9t 31/2- cinn, 3-pitt, wash
21. Private players 5-cinn, wash, 4-sf, phil, 3-ne, pitt, mn
22. Pure lock 1t caro
24.underdog 1t jax
25. Wildcat 10-mia, 7-balt, 5-sea
patron 20k: Cinn
ness 5 10-ariz, minn over
Score
400 Tennessee
Sean Higgs
10* GOM Dallas Cowboys +2.5
Sports Bank
500 Vikings Under
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
NFL MAJOR WAJOR BLOWOUT WINNER
Philadelphia -2.5
NFL CLASS A ROAD CRUSHER
Indianapolis -5.5