Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday September 27,2009

DR BOB

No Best Bets This Week

Strong Opinion
NEW ENGLAND (-4.0) 28 Atlanta 19

There's a lot of talk about how Tom Brady isn't himself and that there is something wrong with the Patriots' offense. Perhaps last week's 4.5 yards per play performance at New York has more to do with the Jets' defense than the Patriots' offense. New York also shut down a very good Houston offense in week 1, holding the Texans to just 3.8 yppl on the road. In case you didn't notice, the Texans erupted for 6.4 yppl and 34 points last week against a good Titans' defense. The Patriots averaged a respectable 5.7 yppl in week 1 against a better than average Bills' defense, so I'm not so sure that much is wrong with New England's offense, which I rate as 7th best in the NFL Atlanta was a slightly worse than average defensive team last season and I still rate the Falcons' stop unit as slightly worse than average after allowing 440 yards at 6.6 yppl to Carolina last week. Atlanta's offense hasn't been as good so far this season as it was a year ago (just 5.2 yppl), but Matt Ryan is certainly a better than average quarterback and the rushing attack should improve upon the 3.7 ypr of the first two games. New England's defense has actually played better than I expected so far, as the Pats have given up a slightly better than average 5.3 yppl to the Bills and Jets, who I calculate would averaged 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Atlanta may be 2-0, but they've been out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl and have taken advantage of their +4 in turnover margin. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been out-gained just 5.1 yppl to 5.2 yppl against a tougher schedule than Atlanta has faced (I rate Miami as the 6th worst team in the league and Carolina is only slightly better than average). The Patriots would have been favored by about 7 points if this game had been played before the misleading results of the last two weeks and using this year's games only results in a prediction of New England by 5 1/2 points (my updated ratings also favor NE by 5 1/2 points). The Patriots haven't been playing up to their own standards and last week's loss will have them highly motivated to play well this week. In fact, the Patriots are 18-1 straight up and 16-3 ATS following a loss since the 2003 season, including 13-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 6 points. One thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is the questionable status of Wes Welker, who missed last week's loss to the Jets. Julian Edelmen took Welker's spot in the slot last week and had 8 catches for 98 yards, but he was thrown to 16 times for a 6.1 yards per attempt average. Welker averaged only 5.8 ypa on 16 passes thrown to him in week 1, but he averaged 7.8 ypa last year and 8.1 ypa in 2007 when Brady was quarterbacking. I'll consider New England a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Patriots in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.25 odds or better.

Strong Opinions (Buffalo +6 and Under 52)
BUFFALO 23 New Orleans (-6.0) 24

New Orleans looks like they can't be stopped on offense, scoring 45 points on 515 yards at 7.5 yards per play in week 1 against Detroit's bad defense and then racking up 48 points on 421 yards at 6.5 yppl against the Eagles' good stop unit. However, it's tough to play that well offensively 3 games in a row, especially away from home. In fact, since 1980 there have been 11 teams that have played away from home after scoring more than 42 points in each of their previous two games and those teams are just 3-8 straight up and 1-8-2 ATS, so don't be too afraid of betting against the Saints and their great offense. After all, the Saints had the best offense in the league last season and were just 8-8. New Orleans is just mediocre defensively and Buffalo's new offense looks pretty good with Fred Jackson at running back and Trent Edwards starting to throw the ball downfield to Terrell Owens. With the suspension to Marshawn Lynch, Jackson finally gets to prove that he's the more valuable back. Jackson has 220 rushing yards at 5.1 ypr this season and his career average of 4.7 ypr on 231 carries is very impressive. Jackson is also a very good receiving back, with 105 yards on 15 passes intended for him (7.0 ypa is very good for a running back and he also averaged 7.0 ypa on 45 pass attempts last season). With Jackson in place of Lynch and Owens producing at a good level the Bills' offense has averaged 6.2 yppl in two games against a mediocre Patriots' defense and a bad Buccaneers' defense. Even after compensating for defenses faced the Bills still rate good offensively, although I rate them as just average in my ratings for now since I had them below average heading into the season.

There is nothing below average about the Bills' defense, which has been great against the run and about average against the pass so far this year (after compensating for schedule). New Orleans will move the ball but the Bills should also be effective enough offensively to compete in this game. My ratings favor the Saints by only 3 points in this game and New Orleans applies to a negative 28-74-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their recent high scoring games. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

This game also applies to a 40-10 UNDER situation and my math projects just 49 points, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 49 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI 18 Pittsburgh (-4.0) 17

I considered the Bengals the NFL's most underrated team entering the season and played them in week 1, a game in which they lost to Denver on a fluke 87 yard tipped touchdown pass in the final seconds. Prior to that play the Bengals had out-gained the Broncos 4.9 yppl to 4.2 yppl (I actually took that fluke play out of my stats because it's not a predictive play). Last week the Bengals lived up to my expectations with an upset win at Green Bay in a game in which they out-played the Packers 5.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl. The Bengals had a good defense last year before injuries hit and that young unit is playing very good this season and ranks at 7th in my defensive ratings heading into this game. Cincinnati also has a capable offense with a decent running back in Cedric Benson (4.3 ypr) and a better than average pass attack with Carson Palmer hooking up with a rejuvenated Chad Ochocinco. The Steelers, meanwhile, have averaged 5.2 yppl and allowed 5.2 yppl in splitting close game with the Titans and Bears and I rate the Steelers as the 9th best team in the league, which is where I had them ranked prior to the season. We have an underrated home underdog against an overrated road favorite and my ratings pick this game even. I'd only favor Pittsburgh by 4 points at Cincinnati even if I used the Steelers' ratings from the end of last season and it's pretty clear that the Steelers aren't as good defensively as they were last season, especially without star safety Troy Polamalu. The sharp players that bet the line down from +6 points to +4 points knew what they were doing but there is still some value on the side of the Bengals and I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +3 1/2 or more and I'd take the Bengals in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back up to +6 or more.

FAIRWAY JAY

AFC GAME OF THE YEAR

7 UNITS: CINCINNATI BENGALS

Indian Cowboy

6 Units Carolina Over 47.5

4 Units Saints Over 52

Steven Budin

25 DIME RELEASE Arizona

Note: This line is mainly -2 1/2 with an occasional -3 as I release it on Saturday morning.

If your price is -3, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 to insure you get a win should Arizona only prevail by a field goal at home.

Should this line escalate to -3 1/2 by kickoff, you would naturally buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to make sure you get a push should the final margin of victory for Arizona be only a field goal.

Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

Pointwise Phone Service

4* TENN

3* G BAY, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER, JACKSONVILLE

2* BUFFALO, DALLAS

Maddux Sports

3 units Tennessee +3
3 units Jacksonville +3.5
3 units New England -4.5
3 units Buffalo +6
3 units Cincinnati +4

SIXTH SENSE

BEST BETS

YTD 6-6 –1.80%

3% TENNESSEE +2.5
3% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
3% GREEN BAY –6.5
3% CHICAGO –2.5 No higher than –2.5
3% BUFFALO +6
3% CINCINNATI +4
3% DENVER –1.5

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.4

NY JETS –2.5 Tennessee 37

Jets come off a big win over NE last week in a game that was pretty evenly played. The Jets out gained NE 4.6yppl to 4.5yppl. Tennessee was upset at home by Houston but they out gained Houston 7.6yppl to 6.2yppl but gave up big yards in the passing game, getting out gained 9.2yps to 6.4yps. They did out rush the Titans 9.2ypr to 2.2ypr. Take away three runs by Chris Johnson, which totaled 217 yards and Tennessee gained just 23 yards rushing on 23 other rushing attempts. Tennessee is averaging 6.4ypr against 5.0ypr and 6.4yppl against 6.0yppl. They are allowing just 1.9ypr against 2.8ypr but 7.9yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. That makes them an average team at this point. The Jets offense has not been very good averaging just 4.2ypr against 5.4ypr but 7.4yps against 6.9yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 6.1yppl. The defense has been stellar, allowing just 4.4yps against 6.2yps but below average against the rush, allowing 3.7ypr against 3.0ypr for a total of 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 447-287-21. I don’t use any numbers during this week of the season as last years numbers are just that at this point and there haven’t been enough games played yet this year to rely on the new numbers. Jeff Fisher is 24-12 ats as road dogs of less than five points. His teams are also 12-6 ats as a road dog of three or less against .500 or better teams. Tennessee lost only one game all year last year by more than three points, which was against these Jets (not counting the season finale at Indy, which was a meaningless game). Tennessee may be 0-2 but lets remember they lost both games by just three points (which wouldn’t give them a cover here) but they have been in both games. The Jets have played fantastic but they like to rush the ball and will face a solid Titans rush defense. I like Tennessee to get a little revenge from last years home loss to these Jets. TENNESSEE 20 NY JETS 16

HOUSTON –3.5 Jacksonville 47

Houston pulled off a big win last week at Tennessee by three points. They only rushed for 2.2ypr and allowed 240 yards rushing at 9.2ypr (three Chris Johnson rushes for 217 yards) but they out passed Tennessee 9.2yps to 6.4yps. Overall they were out gained 7.6yppl to 6.2yppl. Jacksonville fell behind big at home against Arizona and came back to make the score somewhat respectable but were out gained 6.4yppl to 5.6yppl. They allowed 8.3yps to Arizona while throwing for 6.0yps themselves. Jacksonville averages 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr and overall averages 4.9yppl against 4.5yppl, which makes them an above average offense. They allow 5.8yppl against 6.1yppl. While they have allowed 7.9yps it has come against teams that average 7.8yps so they have been about average against the pass, facing two good passing teams, Indianapolis and Arizona. Houston looked terrible in week one and great last week, at least on offense. But, their numbers are not good. They average just 2.4ypr but against teams allowing just 2.6ypr so their rushing game isn’t horrible. They average 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl overall. The defense, once again, is terrible. They allow 6.3ypr against 5.1ypr and 7.5yps against 6.9yps for a total of 6.9yppl against 6.0yppl. Jacksonville qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 539-409-30, 145-75-7 and 447-287-21. Houston qualifies in a very strong negative rushing situation, which is 117-49-8 and plays against them here. Houston has won five of the last six here by at least four points and three of the last four by at least 13 points against Jacksonville. This is a tough game to wager on but the situations greatly support Jacksonville. There is enough here to make this play even though it appears Houston could blow out Jacksonville. This is where I have to trust the systems. JACKSONVILLE 27 HOUSTON 24

PHILADELPHIA –8 Kansas City 39.5

Kansas City lost at home to Oakland last week, which was good because I had Oakland but they badly out played the Raiders. They gained 4.6ypr to 2.7ypr and 5.8yps to 3.8yps for a total of 5.2yppl to 3.3yppl and 409 yards to 166 yards but two turnovers and their inability to get the ball in the end zone did them in. Philly was blown out by NO but was respectable getting out gained 6.5yppl to 6.2yppl but some of that was because they averaged 7.0yps and threw the ball 18 times more than NO trying to play catch up. KC averages just 5.8yps against 6.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl overall. On defense they are allowing just 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Philly has averaged 5.1ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.4yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. They are allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.9yps against 6.8yps and 4.4yppl against 5.7yppl. Philly qualifies in a negative situation based on their performance last week, which is 88-42-4 and plays against them here. KC lost only two road games last year by more than 10 points and did lose by 14 at Baltimore this year but that game was tied with less than five minutes to play. Lots of injuries with Philly this week, which probably means no Donovan McNabb or Brian Westbrook. Small lean to KC. PHILADELPHIA 21 KANSAS CITY 14

BALTIMORE –13.5 Cleveland 38.5

Looks like it’s going to be a long, long season in Cleveland this year. They were blown out at Denver last week, getting out rushed 5.0ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed 7.1yps to 4.2yps and out gained overall 6.1yppl to 3.6yppl. Baltimore got a big win at SD and played well but they were out gained 7.0yppl to 5.2yppl. Primary reason for those numbers was they were out passed 9.0yps to 6.5yps and SD threw the ball 19 times more than Baltimore to inflate those overall numbers. They out rushed SD 4.1ypr to 2.5ypr. For the season, Cleveland averages just 4.3yps against 4.8yps and 4.0yppl against 4.2yppl. They allow 5.6ypr against 5.0ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Baltimore is averaging 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 6.7yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense has been stout against the run again, allowing just 2.2ypr against 3.4ypr but is allowing 7.8yps against 6.9yps for a total of 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. I still rate them as above average on defense and I expect that will be reflected again after this week. I don’t have any situations on this game. Baltimore has won here in four of the last six games by 13 points or more against Cleveland. Cleveland failed to score more than 10 points in their last six games last year. They scored 20 in their first game this year but seven came on a punt return and another seven came on a garbage TD late in the game when they were out of it. Last week they generated just six points again. Meanwhile, Baltimore didn’t allow more than 10 points in any one home game last year. They did allow 20 in the first week but 14 of those points came on defensive scores or defensive plays that put KC inside the 10 yard line. This one will be tough for Cleveland to stay close in if they can’t score and I don’t see it. BALTIMORE 27 CLEVELAND 7

NY Giants –6.5 TAMPA BAY 45.5

Solid performance by the Giants last week as they got a big win at Dallas. They were out rushed 251-97 and 8.7ypr to 3.7ypr but they out passed Dallas 330-127 and 8.7yps to 4.4yps for a total of 6.7yppl to 6.5yppl. They also benefited by four Dallas turnovers. TB fell behind early in Buffalo and never recovered. They were out rushed 6.2ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed 6.7yps to 5.7yps for a total of 6.4yppl to 5.0yppl. The Giants are struggling to rush the ball this year as they average just 3.5ypr against 4.6ypr but they are doing a terrific job throwing the ball, averaging 8.5yps against 7.0yps for a total of 6.2yppl against 5.9yppl. On defense they have struggled against the rush, allowing 6.7ypr against 5.4ypr but terrific against the pass, allowing just 5.4yps against 7.3yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 6.4yppl. TB has been good rushing the ball, averaging 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr but below average throwing the ball at 6.1yps against 6.8yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.9yppl. The defense has done fine against the rush at just 5.7ypr against 6.3ypr but allowing 9.2yps against 7.4yps for a total of 7.5yppl against 6.9yppl. TB qualifies in fundamental rushing situation, which is 447-287-21. Numerous injuries on defense for the Giants and on offense for TB. I will lean towards TB but until I see something better out of them I can make it a best bet. Giants have the overall better talent. NY GIANTS 27 TAMPA BAY 24

Washington –6.5 DETROIT 38.5

The natives are getting restless in Washington. Redskins won a close game at home against the lowly Rams last week and struggled to do so. They out gained the Rams 5.2yppl to 4.9yppl but were out rushed 6.0ypr to 3.8ypr. They did out pass the Rams 6.4yps to 4.1yps. Detroit led at halftime but for the second week in a row, Minnesota stepped it up in the second half and blew out the Lions. They were out rushed 4.5ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed 4.9yps to 4.3yps for a total of 4.7yppl to 4.0yppl. Washington averages just 3.9ypr against 5.4ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.9yppl overall. They allow 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Detroit is struggling on offense again, gaining just 3.0ypr against 3.5ypr, 4.8yps against 5.4yps and 4.0yppl against 4.7yppl. On defense they have allowed 7.9yps against 7.0yps and 6.2yppl against 6.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Clinton Portis is now listed on the injury report as of Friday and could be limited. Washington came in here and struggled to a win and cover last year 25-17. That was their only win by more than six points on the road last year. Detroit started off where they left off last year where they lost just one home game by less than eight points. That was a four point home loss to Minnesota and Minnesota roughed them up last week. Tough game to call because both teams have their flaws. I will lean slightly towards the home team but it’s weak with a stronger lean towards the under. WASHINGTON 17 DETROIT 14

Green Bay –6.5 ST LOUIS 41

GB has troubles on the offensive line and lost LT Chad Clifton last week as well. The loss to the Bengals isn’t as bad as it may appear as Cincinnati is a much improved team this year, especially on defense. But, allowing four sacks in the first week and six more last week is not a good sign. GB also allowed 151 yards rushing at 4.4ypr. They did rush for 4.9ypr but some of that was due to Aaron Rodgers scrambles. They were out passed 6.7yps to 4.9yps and out gained overall 5.4yppl to 4.9yppl. The Rams lost a close game at Washington and were competitive, getting out gained only 5.2yppl to 4.9yppl. They out rushed the Skins 6.0ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 6.4yps to 4.1yps. The Rams were shut out in week one and scored only seven points last week. Their offense has been pretty anemic this year, gaining just 5.2ypr against 5.7ypr, 4.3yps against 5.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They have also struggled on defense allowing 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. GB hasn’t been good on offense, which is a surprise. They average just 4.8yps against 5.5yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense, they are allowing 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. GB qualifies in a week three situation, which is 39-12-3. This is the perfect get well game for GB. They can move the ball even though they haven’t showed it yet this year. They have played two good defenses in Chicago and Cincinnati. Against the Rams they should be able to do what they do best. On defense they should create plenty of problems for the well below average Rams offense. GB should score some points in this game and if the Rams can’t score themselves, it will be a long day. Right now GB is the type of team that should beat the poor teams like this but will struggle against the better teams. Last year the Packers played two anemic offenses on the road with below average defenses and won by 23 and 10. They won here in 2007 by a score of 33-14. Packers have Minnesota on deck but will not be looking ahead after last week’s bad loss. They have vowed to take accountability for their mistakes and clean up their game. GREEN BAY 27 ST LOUIS 13

MINNESOTA –7 San Francisco 39

Real good test for both teams this week. Both teams are 2-0 and looking good but also have plenty of question marks. SF shut down Seattle last week and out gained them 6.3yppl to 4.4yppl but were out passed 5.2yps to 4.0yps. They out rushed Seattle 8.8ypr to 2.9ypr. Take away the two Frank Gore runs (80,79) and SF ran for 97 yards on 27 attempts for just 3.6ypr. Minnesota trailed at halftime for the second straight week at Detroit but turned it on in the second half again and dominated the second half. They out rushed Detroit 4.5ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed Detroit 4.9yps to 4.3yps for a total of 4.7yppl to 4.0yppl. The Niner’s struggled to rush the ball the first week and aside from the two long Gore runs last week struggled again. They haven’t thrown the ball well at all this year. They average 5.1ypr against 4.8ypr and 4.6yps against 5.0yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl. On defense they have been solid, allowing just 2.7ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.3yps against 6.5yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. The Vikings are doing a good job rushing the ball at 5.4ypr against 5.1ypr but they are throwing the ball for just 4.2yps against 6.7yps and 4.8yppl against 5.9yppl overall. They haven’t tried to throw the ball downfield yet this year primarily because they haven’t had to do so. A question remains on if they will be able to when they need to. On defense, I expect their rush defense to be solid again this year but they are allowing 4.0ypr against teams averaging just 3.2ypr so far. Overall they are allowing 4.2yppl against 4.0yppl. Singletary was 4-1 ATS as a road dog last year and is 1-0 so far this year. I will lean towards SF in this game because SF is playing solid defense and there are still question marks as to if Minnesota can throw the ball. If they can’t SF could stuff their rushing game. For SF, there are still questions if Minnesota is able to stuff their rushing game because they haven’t shown the ability to throw the ball either. We’ll get a few questions answered this week. MINNESOTA 21 SAN FRANCISCO 17

NEW ENGLAND –4.5 Atlanta 47

NE was upset at NY last week but as we go through the season we may realize it wasn’t an upset at all seeing the Jets look like a good team this year. They were competitive against the Jets, getting out gained just 4.6yppl to 4.5yppl. They did throw the ball 23 times more but averaged just 4.6yps so they didn’t skew their overall average that much. They allowed the Jets to average 5.7yps. NE out rushed the Jets 4.2ypr to 3.8ypr. Atlanta won at home against Carolina but were out gained 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl, including being out rushed 5.8ypr to 4.1ypr. They did out pass Carolina 8.1yps to 7.0yps. NE is 1-1 this year and has struggled in both games but they are an above average team from the line of scrimmage, averaging 5.1yppl against 4.9yppl and allowing just 5.1yppl against 5.9yppl, including just 4.1ypr against 4.8ypr and 6.1yps against 7.0yps. Atlanta may be 2-0 this year but their numbers from the line of scrimmage are not good. They average just 3.4ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.6yppl overall. On defense, they are allowing 5.1ypr against 4.5ypr and 6.0yps against 4.7yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 4.6yppl. NE qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 121-64-10. Atlanta qualifies in a week three situation, which is 39-12-3. I would like to play Atlanta here but the numbers from the line of scrimmage greatly support NE. The situations greatly support Atlanta. Good game to pass on. I originally thought about this game going over the total but the Atlanta offense has been below average and the NE defense is actually above average so far. My early season numbers, which can’t be relied on this early in the season only predict about 35 points being scored. I’ll lean towards Atlanta but I think this is a good game to pass on. NEW ENGLAND 21 ATLANTA 20

Chicago –2.5 SEATTLE 37

Bears bounced back nicely in a big game for them last week at home against Pittsburgh. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.8yppl and out rushed 4.8ypr to 2.4ypr but did out pass Pittsburgh 5.9yps to 5.5yps. Take away a Rahard Mendenhall run for 39 yards and Pittsburgh averaged just 3.1ypr so the Bears rush defense wasn’t that bad. Seattle was punched in the mouth pretty well at SF last week. They were out rushed 256-66 and 8.8ypr to 2.9ypr. Frank Gore had two touchdown runs of 80 and 79 yards and without those two runs, they allowed just 3.6ypr so it wasn’t quite as bad as it seemed but those runs do count. They did out pass SF 5.2yps to 4.0yps and were out gained 6.3yppl to 4.4yppl. Chicago averages just 2.6ypr against 3.4ypr and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. They are allowing 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. Seattle averages 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl but is allowing 5.4yppl against 4.7yppl. They will go without Matt Hasselbeck at qb this week. The Seahawks have numerous other injuries as well, possibly as many as 12 starters are banged up and could miss this game or be limited. Seattle qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 84-37-9 and plays against them here. Senaca Wallace will start at qb. Seattle was 2-6 SU at home last year with their wins over St. Louis near the beginning of the season and against the Jets near the end of the season when NY was struggling. They lost a lot of close home games, including three by just three points. Seattle hasn’t proven to be a tough team and the Bears figure to bring plenty of pressure. The Bears have certainly been tested much more so far this season with games at GB and at home against Pittsburgh while Seattle has faced just the Rams and 49ers. I like Chicago in a near pick ‘em game. CHICAGO 24 SEATTLE 16

New Orleans –6 BUFFALO 52.5

Saints continue to march on as they destroyed a good Philly team last week that was playing without Donovan McNabb. NO out gained Philly 6.5yppl to 6.2yppl, including out rushing them 4.6ypr to 4.0ypr and out passing them 8.0yps to 7.0yps. The overall numbers would have been even better for NO but Philly threw the ball 18 times more to skew the overall yppl numbers. Buffalo played a great game at home against TB, bouncing back from their deflating loss at NE the week before. They out rushed TB 6.2ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed them 6.7yps to 5.7yps and 6.4yppl to 5.0yppl overall. NO is clicking on all cylinders on offense again this year, gaining 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr and 9.2yps against 7.3yps for a total of 7.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has been solid against the rush, allowing just 2.9ypr against 4.0ypr but is allowing 6.3yps against 5.1yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 4.7yppl. Buffalo has been a big surprise this year, averaging 5.7ypr against 5.0ypr, including averaging 154 yards rushing per game. They are not throwing the ball well, averaging just 6.5yps against 7.8yps and 6.2yppl against 6.4yppl. On defense they allow just 3.1ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.3yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 76-30-3. This is clearly an improved Saints team this year but they won just two games on the road last year by more than five points. They defeated lowly KC by 10 and very lowly Detroit 42-7. Obviously they easily defeated a good Philly team last week by a bunch but Buffalo has also looked much better this year. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 63-26-2. The total is high but I would look to the over before I would look to the under despite the situation. BUFFALO 27 NEW ORLEANS 26

SAN DIEGO –6 Miami 44

Chargers were punched in the mouth by Baltimore last week although they did throw the ball well. Overall, they out gained Baltimore 7.0yppl to 5.2yppl, including out passing them 9.0yps to 6.5yps. They were out rushed 4.1ypr to 2.5ypr. Miami suffered a tough loss at home to Indy, in which they controlled the clock for 45 minutes to only 15 minutes for Indy. They out rushed Indy 239 yards to 61 but were out averaged 5.5ypr to 4.9ypr. They couldn’t move the ball through the air while Indy had no problems in averaging 12.3yps to just 4.7yps for Miami. Overall they averaged 10.2yppl to 4.8yppl. Miami averages just 4.7yps against 5.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 6.4yppl against 5.9yppl, making them below average on both offense and defense. SD averages 7.7yps against 6.9yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They are allowing 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl on defense. SD qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 78-33-2 and plays against them here. They also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 117-49-8 and also plays against them. Meanwhile, Miami qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 539-409-30 and 145-75-7. SD is banged up on their offensive line and on defense. I will lean towards Miami but am worried they won’t be able to throw the ball enough to stay with SD, who can throw the ball against anyone, including Baltimore last week. Another game where the situations point towards Miami but the line of scrimmage numbers greatly favor SD. SAN DIEGO 26 MIAMI 21

Pittsburgh –4 CINCINNATI 37

Steelers lost a tough one at Chicago last week. They out gained Chicago 5.2yppl to 4.8yppl, including rushing for 4.8ypr to just 2.4ypr for Chicago. They were out passed 5.9yps to 5.5yps. Cincinnati played terrific at GB, out gaining the Packers 5.4yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing them 6.7yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed 4.9ypr to 4.4ypr but rushed for 151 yards to just 89 for GB. Aaron Rodgers scrambled for 43 of those rushing yards on four carries so GB really didn’t rush the ball that well. Take away those rushes and GB averaged just 3.3ypr and 4.5yppl. Cincinnati out gained Denver the first week as well, with the exception of the freak 87 yard tipped touchdown pass at the end of the game. Cincinnati is a very underrated team. Their defense is very good. They were good last year but were covered up with such a horrible offense. With Carson Palmer back and big time threats at the receiver position, this team is a decent team this year. Pittsburgh struggles on offense, gaining just 3.1ypr against 2.9ypr, 6.2yps against 6.7yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They continue to be good on defense, allowing just 3.0ypr against 4.6ypr and 5.0yps against 5.7yps. Cincinnati is averaging 3.9ypr against 3.3ypr, 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 4.8yppl. On defense, Cincinnati is allowing 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The Bengal’s qualify in a momentum situation, which is 68-29-2. Pittsburgh has dominated this series here, winning eight straight and 10 of 11, with the closet game being by five points. This is a different Cincinnati team this year and Cincinnati should defeat Pittsburgh out right. CINCINNATI 21 PITTSBURGH 13

Denver –1.5 OAKLAND 36.5

Raiders escaped KC with a win last week, which was great seeing I had them, but they were beaten soundly in that game. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed 5.8yps to 3.8yps and out gained overall 5.2yppl to 3.3yppl. Denver destroyed a bad Cleveland team, out rushing them 5.0ypr to 2.6ypr, 7.1yps to 4.2yps and 6.1yppl to 3.6yppl. The Broncos average just 4.6ypr against 5.1ypr but 7.2yps against 5.7yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense they are allowing just 2.9ypr against 3.7ypr and 4.3yppl against 4.6yppl. New year but same old offense for Oakland, who averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense they aren’t bad against the pass, allowing just 6.0yps against 6.9yps but 4.1ypr against 3.4ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. Denver qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 539-409-30, 177-97-13 and 447-287-21. Denver has won 5 out of 6 games here in Oakland. I like my chances with Denver who has a better offense and a better defense, especially when you consider Jamarcus Russell is only completing 35% of his passes. DENVER 20 OAKLAND 6

ARIZONA –2.5 Indianapolis 48

Should be a great match up between these two teams. Both teams looked good last week as Arizona rebounded by destroying Jacksonville 31-17. They out gained Jacksonville 8.3yps to 6.0yps and 6.4yppl to 5.6yppl. Indy only had the ball for 15 minutes against Miami and allowed the Dolphins to rush for 239 yards and 4.9ypr. Indy did average 5.5ypr when they did rush the ball. Indy averaged 12.3yps to just 4.7yps for Miami and 10.2yppl to 4.8yppl overall. Indy averages 9.3yps against 8.0yps and 6.9yppl against 6.0yppl. They also allow just 4.3yps against 5.0yps and 4.5yppl against 4.8yppl. Arizona averages 3.5ypr against 3.0ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 2.5ypr against 4.8ypr but 5.7yps against 4.9yps and 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl. The Cardinals qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. Indy seems to find ways to win games. They only won one road game last year by more than four points and that was a seven point victory at Jacksonville where they needed a late interception for a td to break a tie game. They don’t need to win this game to cover so I will lean their way despite the situation favoring Arizona. Not sure Arizona is ready to be favored against a quality opponent like this. ARIZONA 24 INDIANAPOLIS 23

DALLAS –8.5 Carolina 47.5

Carolina lost again last week but was competitive in doing so. They out gained Atlanta 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl, out rushing Atlanta 5.8ypr to 4.1ypr. They were out passed 8.1yps to 7.0yps. They also threw the ball 15 more times to skew the final numbers when Atlanta was just trying to run clock. Dallas ran for 251 yards at 8.7ypr but four turnovers did them in. They held the Giants to just 3.7ypr but allowed 330 yards passing at 8.7yps. Overall they were out gained 6.7yppl to 6.5yppl. Dallas passed for just 127 yards at 4.4yps. That’s significant because I pointed out last week if you took away their three big pass plays from week one they averaged just 2.3yps. They are clearly having problems throwing the ball. Carolina will run the ball on them. They do it against everybody. Carolina averages just 4.7yps against 5.5yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Dallas averages 7.0ypr against 6.2ypr and 8.3yps against 7.4yps (again those numbers are a bit skewed with the week one three long passes) and 7.6yppl against 6.8yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.6yps against 7.1yps and 6.4yppl against 5.9yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. I will lean towards the dog and the over in this game. DALLAS 27 CAROLINA 24

Larry Ness

Insider - Arizona Cardinals

26* - Tennessee Titans

20* Club 80 - NE Patriots

Doc's Sports

5 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati +4 ½ over Pittsburgh

Top Play of the Week. The Bengals have looked very impressive thus far in 2009 and should enter this game 2-0, were it not for a fluke play in the opener against Denver. The Steelers are coming off a tough loss in Chicago and will still be without their best defensive player in Troy Polamalu. The Bengals were able to get pressure on QB Aaron Rogers last week and now face a similar QB this week in Big Ben. By similar we mean that he holds the ball for a while in the pocket. I expect this to be a field goal game and getting the points at home is just too good to pass up. QB Palmer makes a statement and this very important game, as neither team wants to drop too far behind the Ravens in the AFC North. This one is played close to the best by both teams. Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 17.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 38½ in Washington at Detroit

Top Totals Play. The Lions have not won a game since 2007 and the Redskin Coach is very much on the hot seat. I expect this to be a defensive struggle and thus it sets up a perfect spot for the under. Detroit managed just three second half points last week against Minnesota and with a rookie quarterback they really want to establish a running game. Detroit hired a defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz as their new head coach and he comes from the Tennessee Titans. The Titans won most of their games with a strong running attack and outstanding defense. This formula sets up great for the under. Washington 20, Detroit 13.

4 Unit Play. Take San Francisco +7 over Minnesota

This game has gotten a lot more attractive then it appeared to be at the start of the season. Both teams enter this game 2-0, but the 49ers have beaten two solid teams (Arizona & Seattle) and the Vikings have played two of the worst teams in the league (Cleveland & Detroit). The 49ers are following a blueprint for success in the NFL by playing strong defense and controlling the ball with a dominate running attack. RB Frank Gore is right at the top of the list for best in the league behind Adrian Peterson of the Vikings and QB Shaun Hill has played well thus far in the season. QB Favre has yet to throw an interception this year and I think that streak ends today, as Minnesota wins but it comes in a low scoring hard hitting game. Minnesota 23, San Francisco 20.

4 Unit Play. Take St. Louis +6 ½ over Green Bay

The Packers continue to receive too much respect for playing outstanding during the exhibition season. That being said, they should be 0-2 if it not for QB Cutler giving them the game in Week 1 of the season. Green Bay has no offensive line and LT Clifton is out for this game in the Gateway City. QB Rogers has been sacked a season’s worth of games in the first two and he has not played up to his standards yet this season. The Rams have a decent front four and expect them to be able to get some pressure and force the Packers offense out of their comfort zone. Green Bay should be 0-2 ATS and they do not warrant laying this many points to anybody in the league on the road. Cincinnati beat them straight-up last week and we were on board for that game and history will repeat itself this week. St. Louis 24, Green Bay 23.

Strong opinion play:

Take Tennessee +3 over NY Jets

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take Houston -4 over Jacksonville

The Jags are a mess and Houston is closer to the team we saw in week two than in week one. I just think we have two teams going in opposite directions, and right now the Jacksonville defense hasn't shown it can come up with any plays so far. We back the Texans offense in this divisional match-up.

5-Unit Play. Take Chicago -2 over Seattle

Perhaps this play seems too obvious, but Seattle's woes were well evident last season with Matt Hasselback injured. If he plays he will probably do more harm than good. If he doesn't, then I feel just as confident that Senace Wallace can't beat the Bears. Either way, Chicago wins on the road.

2-Unit Play. Take Oakland +1.5 over Denver

We're 0-2 betting against the Broncos, but hopefully it pays out this time. I like what I have seen from the Raiders defense early on, not to mention the rushing attack. JaMarcus Russell still looks like a project, but as long as he continues not to turn the ball over, then Oakland seems like a solid play here at home.

Kyle Bales

25* Lions +7 buy the 1/2 pt
15* Jets -3
10* Bengals +5

Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
5* Vegas Line Mistake of the Year 49ers +7
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This is an extremely tough spot for the Vikings and I don't think they'll come out alive. Minnesota has played two games against inferior opponents while the 49ers have played two competitive division games so at this stage I like where the 49ers are at more than I like where Minnesota is. San Francisco has taken on the personality of head coach Mike Singletary and is playing with a chip on its shoulder. The 49ers are a strong defensive team and they are not going to allow Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota ground game to beat them. This week we see what Brett Favre is truly made of and based on what I've seen, he's not ready to carry a football team, especially when he has a showdown with Green Bay on the mind next week. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Also, the Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. I'll take the points as I believe the 49ers have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset.

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
4* Major Public Massacre of the Week Rams +7
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Odds makers have been treating the Packers as if they won 10 games last season with these lines. The reality is that they won just 6, but the books are going to keep overvaluing the Packers as long as the public keeps climbing on board. We played against Green Bay with the Bengals last week and we'll do it again with the Rams here. The Rams will be pumped for their home opener and hungry to get in the win column after suffering a 2-point loss against a solid Washington team last week. The Packer offensive line has struggled, allowing 6 sacks, and the defense still has some kinks to work out in its new scheme. The Packers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and don't be surprised if they go down again this week.

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3* Sunday Night Football SMASH Cardinals -2
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I'm not sold on the Colts one bit. They could easily be 0-2. Indy's defense allowed the Dolphins to keep the football for over 45 minutes last week and I like Arizona's offense to cash in on Indy's defensive shortcomings here. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less. We also have to keep in mind that Indy will be playing with one less day to rest and prepare having played the Monday nighter a week ago. Take the Cards at home.

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3* SMASH Titans +3
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This is a huge letdown spot for the Jets after a big win over division rival New England. There's no possible way the Jets can get up for this one the way they did for last week's contest and that bad news for them because the Titans enter town hungry, ready to get in the winner's circle for the first time this season. The Titans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Plus, the Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Tennessee plays one of its best games of the season this week to pick up the win.

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3* SMASH Bills +6.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Saints' have been rolling, but expect the Bills to slow their roll Sunday. Buffalo is an improved football team on both sides of the ball and it is good enough offensively to put some pressure on a New Orleans defense which hasn't been tested too much. QB Trent Edwards ranks fifth in the NFL with a 104.9 passer rating and Fred Jackson's 337 all-purpose yards through two games are fourth-most in Bills history behind Thurman Thomas and O.J. Simpson. Buffalo is moving the chains with a balanced attack and I'm confident it will be able to run the football on New Orleans. That keeps the clock moving and keeps New Orleans' offense off the field. Plus, Dick Jauron owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home in non-conference play and his Bills’ clubs are also 8-4 ATS as home dogs. Take the points.

3* Sunday Bases *BEST BET* Braves -1.5

The red hot Braves have moved within 2.5 games of the wild card and I look for them to keep rolling Sunday against the lowly Nats. The Braves are 11-0 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite, and 8-1 in Lowe's last 9 starts as a favorite. The Nationals are 1-6 in Hernandez's last 7 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 home starts vs. the Braves. The Braves have won 4 straight against Washington and I'll back them on the run line here.

Black Widow

6* Widow Wiseguy NFC UNDERDOG "SHOCKER" OF THE YEAR San Francisco 49ers +7

5* Wiseguy NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK Rams/Packers O 41

4* Detroit Lions +6.5

4* Tampa Bay Bucs +7.5

4* Oakland Raiders +2