Dr. Bob
2* WEST VIRGINIA (-22) 45 Marshall 13
Last year at this time I was doing my research of Oklahoma State’s new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and determined that the Cowboys’ offense was going to be among the best in the country despite breaking in a new quarterback, having just 4 returning starters and learning a new system. I went on the give out Oklahoma State as a Best Bet in week 1 against Washington State and the Cowboys won 65-17 as a 17 point favorite. After a great one year stint at Oklahoma State Holgorsen was hired to be the new offensive coordinator and head coach in waiting at West Virginia. He didn’t have to wait long as Bill Stewart was fired during the off season and now Holgorsen will run the entire team while installing his prolific offense to a team with 7 returning offensive starters and an established star quarterback in Geno Smith, who was 1st Team All-Big East last season. With more experience and a proven quarterback Holgorsen’s situation is even better than it was last season in Stillwater and I see no reason why the Mountaineers’ offense won’t be much, much better. Holgorsen first had success as an offensive coordinator at Texas Tech (2005-07) running Mike Leach’s offense (averaged 37.6 points per game over 3 years) and he tweaked the system during his two very successful years at Houston, where he turned Case Keenum into a star and averaged 41.4 points per game. Last year at Oklahoma State Holgorsen raised the Cowboys’ scoring average from 28.4 points per game in 2009 (with a veteran star quarterback) to 44.2 points per game with a new starting quarterback. West Virginia’s offense scored only 25.2 points per game last season and the Mounties were just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively in 2010 but to find evidence of a major jump in production in Holgorsen’s first season running the offense you only need to go back to last year. Oklahoma State’s offense in 2009 was actually 0.1 yppl worse than average but the Cowboys were 1.4 yppl better than average offensively under Holgorsen last season. I don’t think West Virginia will be quite as good, but there is plenty of offensive talent to work with and I rate the Mountaineers offense at 1.1 yppl better than average heading into this season. Marshall does have a solid defense that is very good by Conference USA standards and slightly better than average on a national scale, but slightly better than average defenses don’t often keep Holgorsen’s offenses from racking up a ton of points.
There is some concern about the lack of returning starters on the West Virginia defense (just 4), but 10th year defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel has just 3 defensive starters in 2008 and that unit allowed just 17.0 points per game. The Mountaineers have plenty of defensive talent and a good scheme and I rate their defense at 0.6 yppl better than average heading into this season after being 0.9 yppl better than average last season. You don’t need much of a defense to shut down a bad Marshall attack that was 0.7 yppl worse than average last season (5.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) with an experienced quarterback and doesn’t figure to be any better this season while breaking in a new quarterback and running the same bad system.
West Virginia applies to a 23-5-1 ATS game 1 big home favorite situation and I’ll take my chances with Dana Holgorsen reviving another offense. I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.
Strong Opinion
SMU 24 TEXAS A&M (-16.5) 33
June Jones made Hawaii into a winner came to SMU with the hopes of turning around a program that had not been to a bowl games since before they received the Death Penalty in the mid-80s. Jones accomplished that feat with an 8-5 season and a resounding bowl win in 2009 after going 1-11 while laying the foundation in 2008. Last year’s team was expected to be better than the 2009 team but the Mustangs were just 7-7 last season. However, don’t let the record fool you – SMU was a better team last season. SMU went from being 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively in 2008 to 0.1 yppl better than average in 2009 and the Mustangs were 0.6 yppl better than average offensively last season (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and should continue their improvement with 10 offensive starters returning, including star QB Kyle Padron and 1st Team All-CUSA RB Zach Line (1494 yards at 6.1 ypr).
SMU’s defense has also improved every season, going from 1.0 yppl worse than average in 2008 to 0.3 yppl worse than average in 2009 and 0.3 yppl better than average last season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). The Mustangs have 8 returning starters on defense, including three 1st Team All-CUSA players and two that were 2nd Team All-CUSA, and I expect them to be even better defensively this season. What made SMU appear to be worse last season was a -12 in turnover ratio (they were +2 in 2009) that led to 3 losses in which they out-gained their opponents but were -2 in turnovers or worse. Turnovers were the difference between a 10-4 season and a 7-7 season and this year’s Mustangs should bounce back with a very good record given that they have better fortune in the turnover department.
Texas A&M has a similar story, as head coach Mike Sherman enters his 4th season and has also improved his squad every year – and figures to do so again this year with 10 returning starters on offense and 8 returning starters on defense (same as SMU). The Aggies started slowly last season but won their last 6 regular season games after Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. Tannehill completed 65% of his passes and averaged 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. I expect those numbers to improve this season with all of Tannehill’s receivers returning along with 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen. The Aggies will combine a good pass attack with a very good rushing attack that averaged 5.4 yards per rushing play last season against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team.
Texas A&M turned their defensive fortunes around last season with the hiring of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, who had good defensive teams with lesser talent at Air Force. DeRuyter’s switch to a 3-4 defense worked very well as the Aggies went from being 0.4 yards per play worse than average in 2009 to being 0.9 yppl better than average last season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team). This year’s defense loses Butkus Award winner LB Von Miller to the NFL (a 1st round draft pick) but 8 defensive starters do return and my model projects a similarly good stop unit this season despite the loss of Miller.
My math would have favored Texas A&M by 14 ½ points using last year’s numbers and my current ratings also favor the Aggies by 14 ½ points. SMU is 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more the last two seasons and the Mustangs competed well against an elite TCU team last season (out-gained the Horned Frogs 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl) and I think they can hang close in this game – especially considering that Texas A&M applies to a negative 5-31 ATS opening week angle. I’ll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d take the Mustangs in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
RAS
Marshall / W Virginia Over 53
The Consensus Pick
West Virginia -23.5
Dom Chambers
30 Dime Rangers / Red Sox Over
20 Dime White Sox
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Indians
10 Dime SMU
DOUBLE DRAGON
SMU +16
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play New York Yankees (-245) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)
New York has won 19 of the last 20 home games as a favorite of -225 to -250 and they have also won 31 of the last 36 home games when playing on a Sunday. CC Sabathia has won 64 of the last 82 games as a favorite of -175 to -250 and he has an ERA of 2.99 in all starts this season.
Play Philadelphia (-210) over Florida (Bonus)
Play Tampa Bay (-180) over Baltimore
Paul Leiner
100* West Virginia -23
250* Giants -130
Today's Picks
Marshall Thundering Herd +23.5
Southern Methodist Mustangs +16.5
Colorado Rockies +140
Detroit Tigers -130
Jimmy Boyd
5* West Virginia -23.5
3* SMU +16
3* Cardinals
Brian Gabrielle
SMU at Texas A&M
Pick: SMU +16.5
The 8th ranked Texas A&M Aggies welcome June Jones and his dangerous SMU-Mustangs to College Station on Sunday.
Just a year removed from the Conference USA championship game and a bowl berth, Jones is back with 10 of his offensive starters as well as 8 on the defensive side of the ball and poised for a very succesful 2011 campaign.
The Aggies also posted a winning campaign under Sherman, finishing 9-4 overall and a stellar 6-2 mark in conference play and with a myriad of key returnees in place, the Aggies are seeking more in 2011.
SMU put up 25.7 points per game and 414.6 total ypg in 2010, and it all starts with quarterback Kyle Padron, who flourished as a sophomore with 3,828 passing yards and 31 touchdowns next to just 14 interceptions. As a runner, the multi-talented signal caller added 4 more scores.
Padron will benefit from the most experienced line possible, with the entire starting rotation and backups returning this season. Another beneficiary of the strength up front will be tailback Zach Line, who rushed for 1,494 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, finishing as the only player in Conference USA to rush for 1,000 yards or more.
Just like the offensive line, the entire 2 deep is back for the Mustangs' defensive front, including a pair of menacing ends in Marcus Hunt and Taylor Thompson. The SMU secondary gets 3 starters back, and will be particularly strong at corner.
Like the Mustangs, the Aggies return 10 starters on the offensive side of the ball, including QB Ryan Tannehill. Last season, the unit averaged over 440 yards of offense per game.
Also mirroring the Mustangs, the Aggies defense returns 8 starters.
Given the home field advantage we'll have to side with the nationally ranked Aggies, but expect SMU to take this game to the wire and possibly force OT, as these teams are very evenly matched with a lot of upside for both to start the season.
Joe Gavazzi
Houston Astros +160
Seeking value in this selection against a Milwaukee team that is 33-38 away and may be a little overconfident following consecutive 8-2 victories, in the first 2 games of this series. Each of the starters is in good current form with a solid recent history against opposing batters. Astros still playing with pride and purpose if not much ability.
Ben Burns
10* Marshall
9* Saskatchewan
WUNDERDOG
Seattle at Oakland
Pick: Seattle
The home vs. road breakdown is responsible for this betting line, but Oakland is getting far too much respect. Starter Trevor Cahill is no ace, with a 9-13 record and a 4.26 ERA. He has a poor 128-77 strikeout to walk ratio and has been getting worse, with an 0-2 record and a 7.56 ERA his last three starts. Oakland is 3-7 his last 10 starts and he has a bad offense working for him, ranked No. 20 in runs, No. 22 in on-base percentage and No. 25 in slugging. Cahill allowed 5 runs on 7 hits over 5.1 innings against the Indians on Tuesday to take his 13th loss of the year. His evening ended after he hit Shelley Duncan with a pitch, and he managed just 57 of his 102 pitches for strikes. Cahill went 0-4 in six August starts to go with a 7.15 ERA over those 35 innings. Seattle starter Blake Beavan is a young pitcher with excellent stuff, a 3.00 ERA on the road, few walks for a 22-year-old and off a strong game against the Angels. With the Oakland A's 1-5 in Cahill's last six home starts and 0-4 in his last four home starts against the Mariners, so grab the very live dog and play the Seattle Mariners.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units West Virginia -23.5
4 Units West Virginia/Marshall Over 55
3 Units LA Dodgers -130