Scott Rickenbach
10* Pittsburgh / Florida Over
Over the last four weeks, the Marlins are hitting .323 against left-handed pitching and they’ve gone 6-1 in those 7 games against southpaws. While we do expect Florida to pound a struggling Paul Maholm in this match-up, we also know that Marlins starting pitcher Alex Sanabia is also quite likely to get pounded. That said, even though Florida has enjoyed plenty of success against southpaws recently, the play here is the over rather than the Marlins! Sanabia is a rookie who is being called up from the minors to make this start because of the injury to Sean West. While Sanabia has enjoyed success at the minor league level, he’s certainly found out how much more difficult it is to enjoy success against Major League hitters. Sanabia has particularly found this to be the case on the road in the majors as he’s compiled a 7.71 ERA while being pounded at a .389 clip in his four road outings this season. Overall, Sanabia has allowed 35 hits in his 23.1 innings of work at the big league level and he’s facing a Pirates team that has averaged 9 hits per game in their last 7 home games. Yes, Pittsburgh is certainly not known as a powerful hitting team but they are hitting 20 points higher at home compared to on the road this season. We look for them to take advantage of an inexperienced starting pitcher tonight.
While the Pirates bats spring back to life tonight, the issue for Pittsburgh will be their own pitching situation. The Pirates bullpen has a 4.62 ERA on the season and that ranks them in the bottom 5 of the majors! That bullpen is likely to be called up on very early in this one because Maholm is struggling miserably. Don’t be fooled by his most recent start where he allowed just three earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. Maholm did allow 9 hits in that outing and he’s now given up 27 runs (25 earned) on 45 hits in his last 26.2 innings of work. As you can see, that’s an average of about a run per inning and this spans his last five starts! He’s also walked 10 batters during this stretch so Maholm has a WHIP of over two baserunners per inning during this rough stretch for the southpaw. The left-hander has a 5.64 ERA at home this season and a 4.66 ERA in his career against Florida. The Marlins are 99-72 to the over the last three seasons when they are playing a team with a losing record. They’ve also been pounding lefties as noted above. As for the Pirates, they were 5-1 to the over in their six home games prior t this series. This series has been marked by three straight unders but we see that changing today with a struggling Maholm squaring off with an inexperienced (and very hittable) Sanabia. Maholm’s most recent start snuck under the total but the Pirates had recorded just one under in his seven prior starts! The over trend resumes tonight. Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh as a *10* Top Play selection.
Beat Your Bookie
10* Play Indianapolis (+3.5) over Buffalo (Top Play)
Indianapolis is 12-2 ATS in pre-season games coming off a loss by 10 points or more Indianapolis is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in the pre-season Buffalo is 3-10 ATS in pre-season home games when the total posted is 35 points or less
Jeff Benton
15 DIME PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1½
5 DIME BUFFALO BILLS
Phillies -1½
Has there been a pitcher with worse luck this year than Cole Hamels? The veteran lefty has been outstanding for much of the season, posting a 3.33 ERA in 24 starts, and yet he’s got just a 7-9 record to show for it. In his last two starts – both against the Mets – he allowed one run in each game, scattering a total of 11 hits and two walks while striking out 19 in 15 innings … and yet lost both contests by identical 1-0 scores!
What’s more, Hamels is only 4-3 in 11 home starts despite a stellar 2.75 ERA – and that’s in one of the toughest pitchers’ parks in all of baseball.
Well, I’ve been around the block long enough to know that the breaks evenetually even out, and Hamels – who has just one victory in his last nine starts despite a 2.26 ERA – is way overdue for some positive results. I say it comes tonight for a few reasons. First off, Hamels has gotten pretty lucky in his career against the Giants. He’s 4-1 despite a mediocre 4.22 ERA in seven starts, and the Phillies are 6-1 in those seven games (3-0 at home).
Also, prior to those two 1-0 losses to the Mets, the Phillies had won five straight games with Hamels on the bump, including wins of 6-4, 9-5, 2-0 and 4-1. In fact, 10 of Philadelphia’s 13 wins with Hamels starting this year – including eight of the last nine – have covered the run line. Hamels also finally has nearly the entire Phillies’ regular lineup behind him, as Chase Utley, Placido Palanco, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are all healthy (only Ryan Howard remains on the DL).
Philadelphia is absolutely rolling right now, too. It has won 20 of its last 25 games, including the last four in a row (the first two in this series by a comrined tally of 17-5). And if you go back to July 8, the Phillies are on a 17-2 roll at Citizens Bank Park. At the same time, San Francisco has been slipping of late, dropping three in a row and nine of 14 (going 1-6 in its last seven on the highway).
As for Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez, he’s produced just three quality performances in his last 11 starts, pitching less than six innings in seven of those games (and he’s gone longer than six innings just once since June 14). Now he’s facing a Phillies offense that has tallied at least five runs in 10 of its last 15 games, helping Philly to an 12-3 record over this span.
Bills
Forgot about this being a play “on” Buffalo. It’s entirely a play against the Colts – an absolute must-play, in fact. The reason: Indy doesn’t give a rat’s ass about winning games in August. Seriously, the Colts will post more regular-season victories by Halloween this year than they’ve had over the last five-plus preseasons. Think I’m joking? Check this out:
After falling 37-17 to the 49ers on Sunday – at home, no less! – Indy is an abysmal 4-19 in exhibition play since 2005. And it’s not like the pointspread record has been much better – how about 6-17 ATS! The only time the Colts really show up in August is the traditional Week 3 dress-rehearsal when the starters see the majority of the action. Well, this is Week 2, which means you better not get up to pee in the first quarter or you’ll miss Peyton Manning and all his talented friends.
Once Manning departs, he’ll hand the controls of the Colts offense to second-year pro Matt Painter and rookie Todd Bradstater. Here’s all you need to know about these two guys: Manning led Indy to a 10-0 advantage against San Francisco on Sunday before retiring to the sidelines. From there, the Colts got outscored 37-7!
Granted, the Bills had their own atrocious preseason opener, losing 42-17 at Washington. Not only did they lose the game, but the top two running backs – Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch – were injured and will miss the rest of the preseason. Despite that – and despite three crappy quarterbacks trying to learn a new system under first-year coach Chan Gailey – the Bills are STILL laying more than a field goal here. That pretty much says it all, doesn’t it?
Rocketman
5* LA Dodgers -140
Colorado is 4-15 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. LA Dodgers are 29-15 overall this year against division opponents. Colorado is scoring only 3.7 runs per game on the road this year. Jorge De La Rosa is 1-1 with a 6.87 ERA on the road this year. Ted Lilly is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA his last 3 starts. Lilly has 15 strikeouts compared to only 2 walks his last 3 starts. De La Rosa is 0-5 with a 6.42 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997. In his starts against the Dodgers, his team is 0-7. Lilly is 3-1 overall vs Colorado since 1997. We'll play the LA Dodgers for 5 units tonight!
STREET ROSENTHAL
*200 Cincinnati Reds -141
*200 Oakland Athletics -135
*200 Los Angeles Dodgers -139
*200 Atlanta Falcons -2.5
*200 Buffalo Bills -3
Jim Feist
5* LA Dodgers
DAVID BANKS
Bills -3.5
Patriots +3
Padres -145
Red Sox -143
Phillies -170
Reds -118
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Indianapolis Colts + 3
6* Phillies -167
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Jonathan Sanchez gets the call for the visitors; Sanchez has lost back to back games, failing to reach the sixth inning in both.
He's inconsistent; he's 8-8 on the year with a 3.60 ERA; Sanchez gave up one run in five innings of a 5-1 win over the Phillies on April 26.
Not only is San Francisco just 1-4 its last five overall, it's also just 1-6 its last seven on the road.
In the other dugout: Cole Hamels heads to the hill for the home side; Hamels pitched well enough to get a win in his last outing, but RA Dickey threw a one-hitter, so Hamels suffered the loss.
He gave up five hits in seven innings, and again was the victim of poor run support; he hasn't allowed more than four runs in any of his last nine starts and has allowed one or zero runs in five of those outings.
Hamels is 7-9 on the year with a 3.33 ERA; however he has a 1.81 ERA over his last seven outings.
No doubt Philadelphia is on a roll right now; 6-1 its last seven overall; 17-2 its last 19 in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: The Phillies are on a roll right now and I expect them to come up big finally for Hamels;
Marc Lawrence
Texas -175
When Colby Lewis and the Rangers wrap up a three game visit with the Orioles in Baltimore this evening they will do so knowing Lewis has dropped each of his last five team starts in a row, despite a super 2.76 ERA. In fact, Lewis is just 3-3 his last six away team starts with a 2.85 ERA. With Lewis' road 1.044 road WHIP dramatically stronger than his 1.297 home WHIP this season, and Baltimore's Brian Matusz sporting a soft 1.337 home WHIP this campaign, look for the Rangers' bats to come alive in Lewis' support here tonight as the Birds dip to 6-15 in Matusz's last 21 starts. We recommend a 3-unit play on Texas.