Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, August 25,2011

Ben Burns

10* Cincinnati Bengals -2

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Not much is expected from either of these teams this season. Indeed, both are projected to finish well below .500, each at the bottom of their respective divisions. That said, I expect this game to be far more meaningful for the Bengals. The Panthers lost 20-10 at Miami on Saturday. That was somewhat of a "respectable" loss though and they'd actually defeated Green Bay in their previous game. Prior to that, in their lone home game, the Panthers defeated the defending Super Champs. In other words, the Panthers have already experienced some success and there's no real pressure on them to win here. The situation is entirely different for Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-2 and they've been blown out in both games. In fact, this is the worst preseason start in franchise history - and we know this team's history isn't very good. In two games, they've been outscored by a margin of 51 points, a 61-10 combined score. The previous "record" was a 31-point margin. (That came back in 1986 when they lost their first two games by a combined score of 20-0 and 28-17.) As offensive coordinator Jay Gruden noted: "We started with a very low standard so we have nowhere to go but up. We have to make do with what we have and make the most of it." This is a team that needs to show the fans that they're even worth supporting. A victory here might actually sell a few seats when the real season starts. It would certainly go a long way in giving the team some badly needed confidence. Remember, this team had Carson Palmer leave on them and they're still trying to show that they can win without him. Last week, the Bengals were on the road and facing a very powerful Jets team. That proved too much for them to handle. They're at home now though and facing a much weaker opponent. (Keep in mind that the Jets are projected to win 10 wins while the Panthers are being projected to win 4.5!) I expect them to be the "hungrier" team here and for a highly motivated effort to lead to a win and cover.

10* Texas Rangers -157

I'm playing on TEXAS. After the Rangers grabbed Monday's opener, the Red Sox responded by winning both Tuesday and Wednesday's games. Today, however, I fully expect the Rangers to bounce back and salvage the series split. Ogando gets the call for Texas. He didn't get off to a great start this month but is coming off a very solid outing. Last time out, he allowed two runs through seven complete innings. He gave up six hits and had five K's with one walk. For the season, Ogando is 12-5 with a stellar 3.30 ER and 1.12 WHIP. In 12 home starts, he's 7-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.178 WHIP. The Rangers are a profitable 9-3 (+3.9) in those games. Miller was also solid last time out, as he allowed just one run through 5 1/3 innings. That was at Kansas City against the lowly Royals though and it was his first start since late July. He's still 5-1 with a poor 4.93 and a terrible 1.773 WHIP in nine starts overall. He's averaged only 5.1 innings per start and has only 28 K's and 27 walks. (Ogando has 107 K's and 37 walks.) The Red Sox, who recently lost the finale of their West Coast road trip, are playing the final game of an 8-game road trip. This will mark their 14th road game in their past 17 overall and the Red Sox players figure to be looking forward to finally getting home. Even with yesterday's embarrassing loss, the Rangers are still 17-8 the last 25 in this series. The Rangers are also a highly profitable 16-4 (+9.5) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here.

8* St Louis Cardinals -165

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals desperately need to get back on track. A visit from the Pirates should help. Not only are the Cards 10-5 the last 15 times that they were a host in this series but the Pirates are just 3-9 their last dozen road games overall. Jackson has been much better at "home," regardless of where home might be. In 12 "home" starts, he's got a superb 2.72 ERA. He's 2-0 vs. the Pirates and hasn't faced them yet this season. Admittedly, Morton has pitched well recently. He's 2-3 with a terrible 6.21 ERA and 1.92 WHIP vs the Cards though and they've already seen him twice this season. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Cards are generally very tough as home favorites in this range. I expect them to bounce back with an important win here.

8* Toronto Blue Jays -168

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Royals won big in Tuesday's opener. Despite not getting a dominant effort from Ricky Romero, the Jays responded with a 4-3 comeback victory yesterday. I expect them to build some positive momentum from that victory and for them to have the advantage for this evening's all southpaw affair. The Royals entered yesterday's game averaging 4.5 runs and hitting .267 against left-handed starters. They're now 11-23 vs. southpaws. On the other hand, the Jays are 19-14 (+6.3) against southpaw starters, averaging 5.4 runs and hitting .275. Cecil hasn't been getting much run support but has pitched well lately. He's got a solid 3.86 ERA and an excellent 0.952 WHIP his last three starts, going at least seven innings in each. Last time out, he allowed two runs in seven complete innings. Cecil should finally get some run support here, as Francis is in terrible current form. Over his last three starts, Francis is 0-3 with an ugly 8.62 ERA and 1.914 WHIP. For the season, he's 2-8 with a 5.79 ERA in 13 road starts. The Royals are a money-burning 2-11 in those games. The Jays are a lucrative 20-8 (+7) the last 28 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here.

Paul Leiner

100* Bengals / Panthers Over 34

50* Nationals -145

Today's Picks

Cleveland Browns +7

Arizona Diamondbacks +130

Jimmy Boyd

5* Redskins +5.5

3* Nationals -136

Jeff Benton

60 Dime Cleveland Browns

Keith Glantz

100* Braves

Chris Jordan

300♦ Philadelphia Eagles -7

KELSO

50 Units Eagles -7

Chase Diamond

20 Dime Bengals

20 Dime Eagles

ATS Winners

4* Eagles -6.5

4* Browns / Eagles Over 38

4* Panthers / Bengals Over 34

3* Redskins / Ravens Under 34

Super Sports Group

10* Cubs +110
10* Astros / Giants Over 7.5
8* Jays -1.5 +110
8* Red Sox +155
7* A's +170

Anthony Redd

50 Dimes Browns +7.5

Bruce Marshall

Pirates at Cardinals
Pick: Pirates +150

Finally, we have seen enough of St. Louis, as the gutless Cardinals were just swept out at home by the stumble-bum Dodgers, and now we must wonder if manager Tony LaRussa will be seriously considering retirement. Recently acquired starter Edwin Jackson has not provided much of a boost, with a 5.33 ERA in his four August starts. More appealing tonight at Busch Stadium appears to be Pittsburgh, which has offered better value on the road all season and counters with hot starter Charlie Morton, who has rediscovered his early-season form, allowing just 3 runs in his last four starts (0.96 ERA) and having posted a 6-1 mark and 1.98 ERA in 11 starts vs. NL Central opposition this season. Very good value exists with a Bucs recommendation in the +150 range. Play Pirates on Money Line

Bob Balfe

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

This will be the only time Cincinnati is favored all year. The Bengals are not a good football team, but then again neither are the Panthers. Cincinnati has the home field edge and I really do not like the Carolina QB situation. Cam Newton is not a quality NFL quarterback and I do not think he ever will be. Look for Cincinnati to get the win, which might be there last until next preseason.

Cleveland Browns +7.5

The Eagles have been named the NFL's Dream Team, which is not good for distractions. Teams should be focusing on getting better and not on Super Bowl talk in the preseason. The Eagles have yet to get going on offense this preseason and the defense has also looked weak. Cleveland is getting a lot better and Colt McCoy has done tremendous things for this offense. The Browns are putting up points and the Eagles in the preseason are not. Andy Reid does not care about games that do not count and I do not think he will let Vick run the ball on this wet field tonight. This is too many points. Take the Browns.