Scott Rickenbach
10* Texas / Minnesota Over
Each of the first three games in this series have stayed under the total. The Game Four match-up features two big name pitchers, Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano. To top it off, the betting markets see Lee with a 3.09 ERA this season and Liriano with a 3.45 ERA this season. As you would expect considering all of the above, this total is being held down very low. We love it! The value here is clearly with the over. Liriano has been described as having a “dead arm” and this will be his first start since Wednesday the 18th. Lee has been causing major concern for Rangers management as he’s been getting hit much harder with the Rangers than he was with the Mariners earlier this season. Of course, the key for us here is that the markets are sometimes slow to adjust to factors like this and we get to take advantage by playing the over in a game where the total is based more on full season information rather than the current form of each of these two pitchers! We won’t hesitate to step in with a situation like this and raise the level of our selection to our highest rating!
Even though each game in this series has stayed under the total, the last two games have come very close to going over the total. Just one clutch hit in each game would have been the difference maker in each game. Tonight, the clutch hits may come easier than you would normally expect against both Liriano and Lee. The Twins southpaw, Liriano, has a 4.74 ERA in his five career outings against the Rangers. Also, he’s allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. Liriano has walked 12 batters plus allowed 20 hits in his last 15.1 innings of work. As you can see, that’s an average of two base runners per inning and, as his “dead arm” struggles continue, look for the Rangers sticks to cash in early and often in this one. As for Texas southpaw Lee, his long-term success against Minnesota means very little here. Lee has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts. Also, he was crushed for four home runs by the Orioles in his most recent start. Over his last five starts, the Rangers southpaw has given up 43 hits in 35.2 innings of work. Keep in mind, before this series started, both the Rangers and the Twins were on big “over” streaks but, as noted previously, this series has seen three straight unders. We feel strongly that this is the right pitching match-up to see the bats heat back up again! The Twins are 7-3 to the over in Lirano’s last ten starts. The Rangers are 3-0 to the over in Lee’s last three starts! Play OVER the total in Texas as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Milwaukee / LA Dodgers Over
The Brewers Yovani Gallardo is 11-5 with a 3.28 ERA this season. The Dodgers Carlos Monasterios has a solid 3.63 ERA so far this season. As a result, the posted total on this game is being kept much lower than it should be. We say that because neither one of these pitchers’ current form is anywhere close to the low ERA numbers they have on the season. Gallardo has a 7.20 ERA in his last five outings. Also, facing the Dodgers is definitely unlikely to help the right-hander has he’s 0-2 with a 12.19 ERA in his career outings against Los Angeles. Gallardo has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three outings. Also, the right-hander gave up two homers plus walked five batters in just 3.1 innings of work in his most recent start.
The Dodgers Monasterios allowed just one earned run in his most recent start but the fact is that he struggled in that outing. The Dodgers right-hander gave up three runs on eight hits in just 4.1 innings of work. Overall, Monasterios has given up 28 hits in his last 19.2 innings of work. The rookie has a 4.85 ERA on the road this season and he’s been hit at a .289 clip in day games this season. The Dodgers had been on a lengthy under streak but they’ve now scored 5 runs or more in three of their last four games and, as you would expect, only one of those four games stayed under the total. As for the Brewers, they’ve gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games. Milwaukee has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 11 games. During this stretch, the Brewers have also averaged 10 hits per game. The Dodgers bats have also come alive as they’ve averaged 10 hits per game in their last four games. The Brewers are 23-15 to the over when the posted total on their game is 8 or 8.5 runs. Milwaukee is 37-23 to the over in home games this season. Also, in day games, the Brewers are 29-15 to the over this season. Against right-handers, Milwaukee is 50-31 to the over this season. As for the Dodgers, they are 9-4 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Play OVER the total in Milwaukee as an *8* Regular Play selection.
JR O'Donnell
3* Rams +7.5
Jr O grabs the Rams + 7.5 points on Thursday and these serious S Bradford lead St Louie Rams will battle the Pats in a close one! The Pat's just crushed the Falcons 28-10 last game and will be the public choice on Thursday night, The Rams are super excited and the front office just signed all "Big 12" Wr Danario Alexander who will add some spark to the O. The Coach Spagnola shows wants to instill a winning attitude and playing the Pats close will do that. The Rams are a -2 on the Power rating scale! A Short week and the AJ Feely thumb injury will put the public right now 71% on the Pats not us Rams + 7.5
Northcoast
Marquee - Patriots
Power Play Wins
Oakland Athletics
Coach K
2* Packers/Colts Over 44.5
1* Rams +14.5 & Packers/Colts Over 37.5 (7pt Teaser)
Freddy Wills
A's -120 (4-Dime POD)
A's +140 RL (1-Dime Bonus)
Tommy Gun
3* A's -120
2* Rams +7.5
Adam Nichols
4* Twins +140
Bob Balfe
Florida Marlins +102
Florida got a big win last night against New York and are looking to make a season-ending push against the Philles and Braves, who are struggling mightily right now. The Marlins will face Atlanta in the next series and a win tonight would carry over more than enough momentum for them to gain some ground. Take the Marlins.
St. Louis Rams +8
This spread is too high for a preseason game even if you are playing the Rams. St. Louis is getting better on defense (and let's not forget who the defensive coordinator was that spoiled the Patriots perfect season in the Super Bowl a few years ago). Steve Spagnuolo is now the head coach of the Rams and he will always be remembered for leading the Giants defense that stopped the unbeatable Patriots that year. New England has been running the ball a lot this preseason which has chewed up the clock, resulting in less drives to actually score. This fact alone is highly favorable when dealing with such a high spread. Look for the Rams to get Bradford in a rhythm by throwing short passes and utilizing the running game. This should be a pretty boring game but the Rams will cover. Take St. Louis.
Green Bay Packers -4
Aaron Rogers has been, by far, the best player in the preseason to date. Green Bay looks great on offense and I truly think this team will have a great shot at getting to the Super Bowl this year. Peyton Manning is the best QB in the league, but their offensive line is a bit banged up and they really have no depth beyond an excellent starting core. The Packers are a better team at this point of the preseason. When the backups come in, huge advantage to the Packers. Take Green Bay.
Brandon Lang
50 Dime Green Bay -3
Tony George
Green Bay -3.5
The Colts are one of the worst preseason teams around, always have been. They could care less about winning and still Manning may only see the first quarter. QB Painter has not looked good with 3 ints so far in the preseason and either has Flynn for the Packers, who are rumored to be running 1st teamers until halftime. Colts have lost both preseason games by a total of 33 points, one of them at home. Packers have been playing little defense in the preseason and that was stressed at camp all week, so I expect a better effort. The Pack have averaged a 140 yards on the ground in the preseason, and the Colts cannot run it all that well with their player rotation, and they cannot tackle on defense if you saw any of the Bills game last week. The running game of the Packers will win this, which takes out the QB scenario more so for them versus the Colts, that is the Edge. Play 1 Unit on Green Bay.
BONUS PLAYS. 2 Team 6 point Teaser. Tease Green Bay to +2.5 and tease the Rams to +13.5 for a half unit. IN BASES- Play a half unit on Toronto -142.
BIG AL
3* SD Padres
3* Toronto Blue Jays
3* Oakland A's
3* Indianapolis Colts
3* SL Rams
ATS Lock Club
3 Units - NE -7.5
4 Units - Toronto -145
3 Units - Oakland 125
BEAT YOUR BOOKIE
10* Play Milwaukee (-160) over LA Dodgers (POD)
Los Angeles is 16-29 as an underdog of +100 or higher this season Carlos Monasterios is 1-4 as an underdog of +100 or higher Carlos Monasterios is 1-2 in road games this season with an ERA of 7.71
5* Play Texas (-155) over Minnesota
Texas is 24-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season Cliff Lee is 22-7 when pitching on a Thursday over his career Cliff Lee is 8-3 vs. Minnesota over his career with an ERA of 3.40
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Rams +7
When the Rams invade Foxboro to meet the Patriots in Week Three of the NFL preseason Thursday night they will do so knowing that dogs of more than seven points are 35-17 ATS in all games since 1983. When these same teams take on a foe off a win and the dog covered the spread in its last game by four or more points, they are 14-0 ATS in these games if they scored more than 14 points in the spread win. While it's interesting to note that while Bill Belichick is 32-23-5 ATS during the preseason, he has laid more than six points only one time. That was last year against Cincinnati and he lost the game straight-up, 7-6. Belichick is also just 3-5 SU and ATS in preseason games when facing an opponent off a SU underdog win, including 0-2 SU and ATS as a home favorite, losing by a combined score of 54-17. With the Rams 3-0 SU and ATS away during the preseason under head coach Jim Spagnuolo, with every win straight-up as a dog, we'll grab the generous points here tonight. We recommend a 2-unit play on St. Louis.