Mike Lineback
4* Parlay- Rangers & White Sox
Lenny Del Genio
Florida +100
After cashing the Mets in dramatic fashion a night earlier, we came back with Florida last night in this battle of mediocre NL East teams and were right yet again. We noted that not only were the Mets 13-27 coming off a one-run win, but also that Florida is far more effective when facing a lefty (11-1 L12 in road night games) as opposed to a righty. In fact, the Marlins are a NL best 26-12 vs. lefties this season overall. Well, tonight they face another southpaw in Jon Niese, who certainly has been more effective this season than last night's starter Pat Misch, but has still also already suffered a pair of losses to the Marlins this season. He'll be opposed by Anibal Sanchez, who has been lights out since the All Star Break (2.00 ERA in seven starts), particularly of late with a 0.92 ERA in his last three outings. Even better is the fact that the Mets' David Wright is just 3 for 16 lifetime against Sanchez. Look for the Marlins to win the series. Florida is our Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Beat Your Bookie
10* Play St. Louis (+7) over New England (Top Play)
St. Louis is 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points in pre-season games the last 3 years
St. Louis is 3-0 ATS when playing on a Thursday in pre-season the last 3 years
St. Louis is 3-1 SU when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points in pre-season
St. Louis is 3-1 SU coming off an OVER the total in pre-season the last 3 years
Jeff Benton
25 DIME PATRIOTS (First Half)
15 DIME PATRIOTS
Tom Brady vs. Sam Bradford. … The Rams’ talent (on the road) vs. the Patriots’ talent (at home). … In a Week 3 preseason game, which is the only one where starters see extensive action and teams put in game plans.
Need I say more? Seriously, this isn’t just a mismatch – this is the equivalent of 12-year-old Pop Warner kids facing the high school state championship team. And the kicker is these teams have lived up to their reputation in the first two preseason games. Look at the stats:
New England toppled the Saints 27-24 as a 1½-point home favorite in the first week, then went to Atlanta last week and throttled the Falcons 28-10 as a three-point underdog. The Patriots led both contests at halftime by scores of 17-7 (vs. New Orleans) and 14-3 (vs. Atlanta, with Brady going 10-for-12 for 85 yards and a TD). Overall, New England has put up averages of 27.5 points and 314 total yards while giving up 17 points and 285.5 total yards (just 186.5 passing).
St. Louis got spanked 28-7 as a 2½-point home favorite in its opener (failing to produce an offensive touchdown) then outlasted the Browns in a quagmire last week 19-17 as a four-point road underdog (managing one TD and four field goals). Bradford looked like a rookie in both contests, completing just 12 of 25 passes for 81 yards, and he’s been sacked four times. Tonight, he has to start because veteran A.J. Feeley (#1 on the depth chart) got hurt last week and won’t play.
Gee, you think Bill Belichick will bring the pressure on the kid tonight? Damn right he will! Even worse, backing up Bradford is Keith Null who is 7-for-22 for 76 yards in two games. And we’ll probably see Null the entire fourth quarter. Meanwhile, after Brady departs, he’ll hand off to QB Bryan Hoyer, who has looked very good so far in completing 57 percent of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown (no picks).
Bottom line: Because the fourth quarter in any preseason game is dicey – even the third one, which teams treat most like a regular-season contest – I don’t feel as confident in my play on the Patriots for the game as I am in my play on the Patriots for the first half. Still, if the first half goes like I think it will, New England should have at least a three-TD lead before this game gets turned over to the backups in the third quarter. If I’m correct, that lead will not get wiped away by a putrid Rams offense averaging 161 total yards per game so far (including just 45 rushing yards per game).
By the way, New England has won six of its last eight Week 3 preseason tilts, going 5-2-1 ATS
WAYNE ROOT
4* MILLIONAIRE SL Rams
6* BILLIONAIRE NY Mets
7* NO LIMIT Toronto Blue Jays