BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Thursday NFL games have been very profitable for 'under' bettors this season. In what figures to be a cold and stormy December night at Cleveland, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this week. Note that even with last week's game finishing above the total, the UNDER is still 4-1 the last five times that the Browns played a home game in the month of December and a profitable 9-1-2 their last dozen December games overall.
These teams faced each other at Pittsburgh back in mid-October. That game finished 'over' the total with the Steelers winning by a 27-14 margin. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring. For starters, the Browns were extremely fortunate to even score 14 points, as they only gained 109 total yards of offense for the game. Seven of their points came on a 98-yard Cribbs kick return. While Pittsburgh did put up very big yards, the Steelers scored three of their points thanks to a very questionable call, where the referee awarded them a first down, on a 4th and short, which should have given the Browns the ball. Cleveland players were furious and even Pittsburgh players acknowledged that they got a break. Additionally, note that Hines Ward scored a touchdown and had eight receptions for a whopping 159 yards. That's worth mentioning as Ward has a strained hamstring and is currently "very questionable," according to Coach Mike Tomlin. Even if he does play, its unlikely that he'll come close to matching what he did in the Week 6 meeting.
Yes, the earlier game did find its way above the total. However, both last season's meetings between these teams finished below the number, each producing 31 points or less. The most recent game here at Cleveland finished with a mere 16 combined points, a 10-6 Pittsburgh victory last season.
I played on the Browns vs. San Diego last week, so was happy to see them score enough points to cover the spread. However, it should be noted that they scored their final touchdown right at the end of the game and that they only had seven points through three quarters. Prior to that, they'd scored seven points or less in four of their previous five games. Their 12.1 points per game ranks second worst in the AFC And third worst in the NFL. Only Oakland and St. Louis are worse and the Browns are barely ahead of either of them. In terms of total yards, they're dead last. They're also dead last in terms of yards per play and they rank second worst, in terms of first downs. In other words, this offense is really bad.
Now, the Browns will face a Pittsburgh defense that still ranks in the top 5 in the league, in terms of yards allowed, and which is surely going to be upset, after giving up so many (27) points to Oakland last week. Note that Pittsburgh is allowing only 270 yards per game vs. division opponents. The Browns are averaging just 221 yards in their division games, managing a mere 8.8 points.
Yes, the number is low. However, I feel that it could (and should) be even lower. I expect the UNDER to improve to 7-2 the last nine times that the Browns were underdogs of greater than eight points. *9 Main Event
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* "BOOKIEKILLER"
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the large home dog:
Pittsburgh has lost four in a row and I believe this team is on the ropes.
The Steelers' once-vaunted defense has blown fourth-quarter leads lately, with its worst collapse Sunday against Oakland. Pittsburgh coughed up three separate leads in the final 8:21, allowing the Raiders' 31st-ranked offense to score 21 points and leave Heinz Field with a 27-24 win.
Receiver Hines Ward, who has six TD's in his last eight games against Cleveland, likely won't play after suffering a hamstring injury late in the loss to Oakland.
Roethlisberger looked better last week, but should be under duress once again on the road and in adverse weather conditions.
So it comes as no surprise to learn that Pittsburgh is a horrible 4-9 ATS its last 13 overall, 1-4 SU its last five overall and a brutal 2-6 ATS its last eight on the road!
On the other side of the field: We were on the Browns last weekend, and I believe they will once again do just enough in this one to come sneak away with an ATS victory.
Brady Quinn has had solid numbers in two of his last three outings; Quinn threw for 304 yards and four TD's in Cleveland's last-second 38-37 loss at Detroit on Nov. 22, then had 271 yards and 3 TDs Sunday in a 30-23 defeat to San Diego.
Remember, Cleveland is 6-3 ATS its last nine overall.
Bottom line: On a cold and blustery night, I believe this is simply too many points to be giving up to a home team anxious to prove itself.
Pittsburgh is dealing with too many injuries on both sides of the ball right now; look for CLEVELAND to move to 4-2 ATS vs. division opponents this year and for Pittsburgh to fall to 3-7 ATS vs. conference opponents this season!
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: BROWNS
No, this isn’t a kneejerk response to losing Sunday’s 20 Dime Best Bet on the Steelers. It’s simply me coming to the realization – a little late in the game, perhaps – that the Steelers just are not a very good football team this year (or at least right now, they’re not). Good teams just don’t give up 27 points to both the god-awful Chiefs and Raiders and lose those games outright as a double-digit favorite. Good teams don’t lose at home to the Bengals as a touchdown favorite. And good teams just don’t blow fourth-quarter leads, which Pittsburgh has done in all six of its losses.
Clearly, after that last-second loss to Oakland on Sunday (at home, no less), the Steelers are in a big-time crisis mode for the first time in a few years and the first time under coach Mike Tomlin. And given they’ve lost four straight games (including three in a row by a field goal), I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Steelers’ collective mental approach right now is “this just isn’t our year.” One thing is for certain: Pittsburgh misses defensive star and leader Troy Polamalu. Polamalu has missed the last 3½ games, and not-so-coincidentally, the Steelers lost those contests while giving up 27, 20 and 27 points in the last three. Polamalu will be on the sidelines again tonight (and possibly for the rest of the season), and without their heart and soul, you simply cannot trust the Steelers defense – no, not even against the Browns.
After all, Cleveland has shown some fight the last three weeks. It lost to the Lions (38-37 on the road), Bengals (16-7 on the road) and Chargers (30-23 at home), but covered the spread in all three games. Going back to Week 4, the Browns are 6-3 ATS, including a 27-14 loss in Pittsburgh as a 14-point road ‘dog in the first meeting between these squads. That game was played in perfect weather; this one will not be, as temperatures are expected to be in the teens with blizzard-like conditions. When you get this kind of nasty weather, the value on the underdog rises exponentially – and it rises even higher when that underdog is at home and catching double digits, as the Browns are.
Cleveland not only cashed at Pittsburgh back in October, but it is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this heated Rivalry, including a 10-6 home loss last year as a six-point ‘dog. Besides that and their ongoing 6-3 ATS streak over the past nine weeks, the Browns have covered in five of six against AFC opponents and eight of 11 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. On the other hand, the Steelers – who have cult following across the country – have been sending their supporters to the poorhouse recently, sporting negative ATS trends of 4-9 overall, 2-6 on the road, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-6 as a road chalk. Most tellingly, Pittsburgh has failed to cover in five straight games against a team with a losing record. That last one tells me two things: 1) The Steelers have a habit of playing down to their level of competition; and 2) As I said at the outset, the Steelers just aren’t that good; they’re simply living on reputation.
In the end, because they have more talent and because they’re so desperate, I would expect the defending champs to find a way to win tonight. Then again, I expected them to beat the Raiders and Chiefs, too, so I certainly wouldn’t be blown away if Cleveland won this outright. Either way, given the state of both franchises right now; given the fact this is, essentially, the Browns’ Super Bowl; given the fact the Steelers will be without out their most important leader (Polamalu) and possibly their second most important leader (Hines Ward is doubtful); and given the extreme weather that’s going to play a factor tonight, the only option is to take the generous points with the home team.
Jim Feist
Oddsmaker Error
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
Take: 5-Star CLEVELAND BROWNS
Reason: We don't know what all these changes are going to do for the stumbling Steelers' (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS), but we do know they have been money burners all year. We also know the weather conditions for the game are not going to help either offense: 22 degrees, 25 MPH wins, 80% chance of snow. After Sunday's stunning 27-24 loss at home to the Raiders as 14-point chalk, coach Mike Tomlin is making some sweeping changes, looking to go with new cornerbacks on a secondary that has blown too many fourth quarter leads. Rookie cornerbacks Joe Burnett and Keenan Lewis will play and veteran cornerback Ike Taylor possibly could lose his starting job. WR Hines Ward will not play because of a late-game hamstring injury, so WR Limas Sweed will move up on the depth chart. They also allowed a TD on the final play in a loss to the Bengals, lost 20-17 in OT at Baltimore, and gave up an 11-yard TD pass to Oakland with nine seconds left. Losing star safety Troy Polamalu has clearly hurt. He might be gone for the season and it was the fifth time in six losses that the Steelers couldn't hold a lead in the fourth quarter. Cleveland has been moving the ball and scoring some the last two games under QB Brady Quinn (8 TD, 5 picks). Quinn threw for 4 TDs, 304 yards and no picks, in a 38-37 loss at Detroit, then had 3 TDs, no picks and 271 yards in Sunday’s 30-23 loss to San Diego. On national TV, this will be the Browns Super Bowl, so the home dog has great value. Play the Browns.
15-Star NBA TNT Game of the Month
ORLANDO MAGIC VS UTAH Jazz
Take: ORLANDO MAGIC
Like last year, the Orlando Magic are terrific on the road, a sizzling 10-2. They are also red-hot winning 11 of 12 games. Dwight Howard scored 25 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, dished five assists and blocked seven shots on his 24th birthday to lead the Magic to a 97-86 victory against the Clippers on Tuesday night. The Magic improved to 17-4, tying their best-ever start after 21 games. The Magic play a back-to-back to close the road trip, taking on the Utah Jazz on Thursday and the Phoenix Suns on Friday. They catch a break here as Utah is no rested, having to play at the uptempo Lakers last night. This is a difficult week, playing the Spurs, Lakers and now the Magic, three games in four days against powerhouse teams. The Magic are 12-2-1 ATS the last 15 games against Utah and 6-0-1 ATS the last 7 at Utah. An excellent situational spot for the visitors. Play the Magic!
MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY THRILLER
MIAMI,O. REDHAWKS @ CINCINNATI REDHAWKS
PLAY: MIAMI,O. REDHAWKS +15 FOR 3 UNITS
This is an in-state rivalry game, that obviously means more to Miami,O. than it does to the Bearcats, so expect the Bearcats to have to survive the Redhawks "A" game in this one. Redhawks familiar with good teams this year, playing Kentucky to the buzzer, and falling to a potent Dayton team bu just 7. Miami,O. getting it done as large sized dog, wearing out books at a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12 posted as a dog of 12.5 or more, and Bearcats not wearing the favorite hat well at 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Miami,O. gets the call here.
BRANDON LANG
25 DIME - ORLANDO MAGIC - All is not well with the Utah Jazz
When you face your arch-rival on the road the night before, and score a total of 6 points in the 4th quarter and get routed by 24, I don't care who you are, it is going to leave a mark both mental and emotional.
Now you have to get right back after it and face a surging Magic squad that not only won 6 in a row, and 11 of their last 12, but how about 7 straight road wins.
They took care of the Warriors and Clippers on this road trip so far, and what makes this even a tougher spot for the Jazz is the Magic are well rested.
They played the Knicks on the 2nd, the Warriors on the 5th and the Clippers on the 8th. Talk about a cake walk of a road trip. Most people roll into Utah on back- to-back nights but not Orlando.
It is very rare that an East Coast team gets this much time off between games on a west coast road trip, and because of this and Orlando being red hot, I have to make them my biggest NBA play of the entire year.
In a game that sees the Magic being the small favorite, I just can't see the Jazz getting over what happened last night in LA.
15 DIME - PITTSBURGH STEELERS - The Browns are just what the doctored ordered for an ailing Pittsburgh Steelers team.
When you have beaten a team 12 in a row and covered 10 of those, I've learned over the years that when these two meet, you lose with the Steelers simple as that.
In the first meeting the Steelers dominated this Browns team to the tune of 543 yards of total offense in a 27-14 win but didn't cover the 14 point number courtesy of a Joshua Cribbs kickoff return for a TD.
Big Ben threw for over 400 yards on this Browns defense and he had guys open all night long and I don't see the Browns doing anything to stop him again tonight.
Cleveland got the miracle cover last Sunday putting up 2 fourth quarter TD's on the Chargers after trailing 30-7 and even in that game Rivers threw for almost 400 yards on them.
Don't be fooled by anything Brady Quinn and this Browns offense has done the last few weeks. Yes, he was good against the Lions but remember folks, we are still talking about the Detroit Lions.
How soon we forget 2 weeks ago at Cincinnati the Browns had 169 yards total offense, 58 on the ground and 111 in the air.
I fully expect the Steelers to get their swagger back against a team they flat out own, and if you think the defending Super Bowl champs are going to lay an egg here then you don't know their head coach very well.
Tonight the Steelers do what they always do against the Browns and that is beat them by 2 touchdowns or more and keep their playoff hopes alive.
FREE SELECTION - SYRACUSE ORANGEMEN
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
NBA THURSDAY NIGHT TNT SIX POINT TEASER SMASHER
Washington +13.5
Utah +8.5
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
NHL PURE MONEY LINE CONSENSUS WINNER
Nashville -160
ATS LOCK CLUB
3 units on Pittsburgh (-9.5) over Cleveland, 8:20pmET
Chris Jordan
400♦ ORLANDO - This is a tough spot for the Utah Jazz, as they not only come in after a 101-77 pasting at the hands of the defending champion Lakers, but they're going to be playing for the fifth time in seven days. And, Utah has alternated being home and away during this time. Can you say weary?
And even worse for the Jazz, tonight is a sandwich game between a home-and-home series with the Lakers. Yup, Kobe and company will be in Salt Lake on Saturday for another showdown.
Again, simply a bad spot to be taking on a red-hot Magic team that has won six straight (4-2 ATS) by an average final score of 108-97. And five of those wins came on the road by the way. With a win tonight, Orlando will have produced a better start than any other Magic team: 18-4 after 22 games.
I'm looking for big things from Dwight Howard, who comes in after pouring in 25 points, yanking down 11 rebounds and swatting seven shots on his 24th birthday, Tuesday night against the Clippers. Last season Superman averaged 28 points in two wins against the Jazz. And since the Jazz played last night, look for Orlando to get the tempo off an running early on, taking Utah's wind from it immediately.
The Magic have won their past two meetings in Utah, so I don't think a raucous Jazz crowd not be a factor. Besides, the Magic are on ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road and against the Northwest Division, 5-1 playing on one day's rest and 12-5-1 when laying points on the road in this range and 7-3 overall.
On the other hand, the Jazz are mired in ATS slides of 10-25-2 against Southeast Division teams and 8-20 when playing on the second of back-to-back nights.
And in this series, it's all Orlando, which is on ATS runs of 13-3-1 in this series overall and 6-0-1 in Utah.
Lay the road chalk.
100♦ RHODE ISLAND - This is a mighty defensive Rams team that is going to be too much little ol' Northeastern, which comes into this contest with a 2-4 mark on the season. Rhody has been pressing extensively - both full and half court - and has won six of its first seven games. So while teams try to establish their identity early on in ball games, the Rams won't allow much it, living and dying by the pressure-cooking D.
They really don't have much choice, as there are no pure offensive weapons any longer in uniform; but the speed, agility and athleticism on defense helps dictate the flow of games. You combine those factors with that pressure, and you find teams forced into making hasty decisions, which ultimately cause mistakes and turnovers.
Coming into tonight, Rhode Island is averaging 10.4 steals, which ranks 19th-best in the nation, while it is forcing 18.6 turnovers, (29th in the country). Their steals-to-turnover ratio is 73-89, 0.82, 11th-best in the nation. And thanks to the transition game, the Rams average 81.3 points, 25th in the country.
All Rams tonight.
50♦ OVER Steelers/Browns - Crunching the numbers, I have this game soaring past the number. And since most of the injuries taking place have been on defense with both of these teams, I don't see how either will be able to contain the other. Pittsburgh's secondary has been atrocious lately, so Brady Quinn and company might find themselves achieving things they haven't been able to do normally against the Black and Gold. That doesn't mean the Browns cover though, as they're still the Browns. Pittsburgh will be able to move the ball effectively as well. This one goes over.
BEN BURNS
7* ESPN BEATDOWN!
FLORIDA GATORS (+3) over Syracuse Orangemen
I'm taking the points with FLORIDA. Both these teams lost their top scorer from last year. However, both are still a perfect 8-0 to start the season. With this game being played at Tampa, I expect it to be Florida which maintains its perfect record. Many haven't realized it yet but the Gators are much better than they were last year. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim knows it though. He was quoted as saying: "Florida is very good. I think they're really a much better team than they were last year..." Behind a big game from Jonny Flynn, now in the NBA, the Orange won last year's meeting (at Kansas) by six points. Syracuse shot 51.7% in that game. The main area where the Gators are improved this year is on the defensive side of the ball. Thus far, Florida opponents are shooting a mere 38.7 percent. While this is technically a "neutral court" game, naturally the crowd will favor the Gators. Note that they're 4-2 all-time at the St. Pete Times Forum. Also, the Gators are a profitable 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times that they were neutral court underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Additionally, note that the Orange typically play most of their non-conference games fairly close to their own campus. Of their eight games this year, six have come at home and two have come at Madison Square Garden. While the Orange are certainly worthy of respect, this will be an entirely different atmosphere than they've seen so far this season. The Gators have already beaten some very tough teams. They also already knocked off a team (Rutgers) from the Big East. They're now 15-7 against teams from the Big East under coach Billy Donovan. A win against the Orange would do wonders for the Gators, come March. I expect them to rise to the occasion, continuing their terrific start, and avenging last year's loss. *7
Wunderdog
Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers
5 units Under 5.5
The Flyers erupted for six goals in their last outing against the Islanders, but one game does not fix the woes they have shown. They are still trying to find the net as they have failed to top the two-goal mark in their previous six games and averaged a pathetic 1.17 per contest in those six games. The Senators arent in much better shape on the offensive end where they have scored just 18 times in their last eight games, or just better than two per contest. That leaves a lot of wiggle room for this one to stay well UNDER the total posted. The potential of one of these teams going off on the offensive end is very marginal, and odds favor this one to stay UNDER the total - my play in this one.
Does anyone get Kick Off Sports, they have won 8 straight games and are red hot
uggghh...Lang and Jordan are both on the Magic.
Craig Davis
20 DIME Cleveland/Pittsburgh UNDER