Ben Burns
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards
Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. With the Celtics on an eight game winning streak and with the Wizards having lost two in a row, many will hesitate to back the home underdog here. That sentiment has provided us with plenty of line value. A closer look at Boston's eight game winning streak shows that only three of the victories came by more than nine points. They won the other five games by an average of less than six points. Looking back a little further and we find them at just 7-11 ATS, dating back to the beginning of November. While the Wizards are off back to back losses, both those defeats came by four points or less. In fact, each of their last four games has been decided by four points or less - they went 2-2 in those games. Looking back further and we find that the Wizards have won four of their last seven games. Of those seven games, only one resulted in a loss of greater than four points. That lone lopsided loss (11/28 at Charlotte) came when the Wizards were playing the second of back to back games. Tonight, however, the Wizards are very well rested - they haven't played since 12/6. I believe that the fact that the Wizards haven't played since 12/6 is significant. Note that the last time that they played, after having the previous three days off, came vs. Cleveland on 11/18. Listed as +3.5 underdogs, they Wizards won outright. In fact, they crushed the Cavs by a score 108-91. Coincidentally, the Wizards were coming off a 3-point lss vs. Detroit, prior to their break. This time, they're coming off a 4-point loss, vs. those same Pistons. While the Wizards are well-rested, the same cannot be said for the Celts. Yes, they did have last night off. However, they're also in the midst of playing seven of their last eight games on the road. While he's not one of the "Big 3,' note that the Celts will be without guard Marquis Daniels. The Wizards do allow just slightly over 100 points per game. However, with Arenas, Jamsion and Butler all averaging more than 16.5 points per game, (Arenas and Jamison average more than 20) they can also trade points with the best of them. Additionally, the Celtics are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 99 or more points. They're also only 3-6 ATS vs. sub-500 teams. I expect another one which comes down to the wire. *9 Best Best
C-STAR SPORTS
5000 Units Pittsburgh Minus the points over Cleveland
1000 Units Boston Minus the points over Washington
50 Units Orlando/UTAH over the total
OC DOOLEY
3 UNITS REDZONE COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BET
Northeastern +7 at Rhode Island
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Boston Celtics
3 Units Syracuse
Wise Guy Insider Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE LATE INFO THURSDAY NIGHT NFL TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
Pittsburgh / Cleveland OVER 32.5
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion OVER
OVER (32.5) - Pittsburgh (-10) 25 CLEVELAND 15
Pittsburgh has lost 4 consecutive games and last week's home loss to the Raiders should have the Steelers not taking this game for granted. Cleveland covered for me as a Strong Opinion last week with a decent offensive performance against San Diego (372 yards at 5.4 yards per play and 23 points), but the Browns are in dire straights defensively. Cleveland went from bad to worse defensively when leading tackler LB D'Qwell Jackson was lost for the season to injury in week 6, but the secondary is now defenseless with their two best pass defenders out this week. FS Brodney Pool leads the team with 10 passes defended and 4 interceptions and the Browns were torched for 386 yards at 14.3 yards per pass play without Pool in the lineup last week. Pool is out for the rest of the season and will be joined on the sideline this week by top CB Eric Wright, who is the only other player on the team other than Pool with an interception (he has 2 picks) and is second in passes defended with 9. WR Hines Ward is out for the Steelers this week, but #3 wide out Wallace has averaged 9.3 yards per pass thrown to him, which is slightly better than Ward's 9.1 ypa average. Of course, Ward gets a lot of double-teams so I did downgrade Pittsburgh's pass rating for this game with Ward out. However, Ben Roethlisberger should light up a thin Browns' secondary that was bad even with Pool and Wright.
Not only will Pittsburgh be able to move the ball better than projected but Cleveland's offense is perking up a bit and the Steelers' defense is 0.7 yards per play worse in games without star S Troy Polamalu than they are with him. The adjustment versus their season stats is 0.3 yppl with Polamalu still out and Pittsburgh's league worst kickoff coverage team is up against Cleveland's top notch kickoff return team. Joshua Cribbs has returned 3 kickoffs for touchdowns in his career against Pittsburgh, including a 98 yard return in a 14-27 loss at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Derek Anderson was quarterbacking the Browns in that first meeting and Brady Quinn, while still bad, is considerably better than Anderson was and Cleveland has a chance to score a decent number of points given the good field position that Cribbs should give them with his returns.
My math model favors Pittsburgh by 12 points in this game, but Cleveland applies to a 102-47-2 ATS situation that plays on bad teams on a long losing streak.
Before any adjustments, I would have made the over/under on this game 38 1/2 points using a compensated points model and the total opened at 38 points. The total has since gone way down due to what is expected to be cold, wet and windy conditions. However, both defenses are worse now than their season numbers suggest, Quinn at quarterback for Cleveland is an improvement, and Ward being out for Pittsburgh isn't likely to be much of an issue. Those adjustments lead to an additional 5.3 points, which would give me a projection of 44 total points before adjusting for wind and snow. If I assume that the market is correct in lowering the line by 5 points for the weather then I would get 39 points as my projected total, so there is value on the over in this game even with the bad weather factored in. Pittsburgh is 6-1 Over without Polamalu in the lineup, as the defense isn't as good and the offense tends to be more aggressive when the defense isn't as trustworthy. I'll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 34 points or less.
THE BOOOJ
100 Units Cleveland +10
25 Units Over
Hey just want to let everyone know...that is a lie..the boooj only has one play tonight and its on the OVER 25 units..sorry to interrupt blade
Kelso
Best Bets
3 units Northeastern +7.5
5 units Syracuse -3
10 units Wizards +7
Chairmans
10 Loyola Mariemont pk
THE BOOOJ
100 Units Cleveland +10
25 Units Over
Hey just want to let everyone know...that is a lie..the boooj only has one play tonight and its on the OVER 25 units..sorry to interrupt blade
Thanks Golf I am a little tied up at work today so a lil behind
Street Rosenthal
*200 Boston Celtics -7
*200 Cleveland Browns +10
Trey Scott
*200 Depaul +11.5
Seabass
Cleve 20*
Celtics/Wizards under 100*
Wizards 50*
Colo/Nash under 5.5
Depaul 50*
Charlie
cleveland+10. nfl pittsburgh @ cleveland under 33 & cbb. cininnati-14' (500* Triple Play)
wizards+8 (30*)
depaul+10' (20*)
syracuse-2' (20*)
colorado-2 (10*)
utah+3 (10*) free play
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
7* Clev/Pitt Over 34
Northcoast
Marquee Over
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend Steelers
Millionaire Montana
Billy Coleman
4* Colorado
Kyle Bales
10* Florida
10* Browns
Executive
250% Pittsburgh -9.5
Executive
250 Col St
250 Steelers
GREAT LAKES SPORTS
4* Cinn-14.5
3* SYR-2.5
3* Colorodo St+2.5
4* Orlando-3
3* DENVER
3* WASHINGTON+7.5