Marc Lawrence
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars
With their record-setting 22nd straight regular-season win, the Colts take to the division road attempting a series sweep of the Jaguars, a situation of which they are 0-6 ATS in their last six attempts. They have also not fared well in the month of December as favorites of a double-digit win versus .500 or greater opposition, checking in with a 1-7 ATS record. More importantlyˆ, our database reminds us that since 1980: undefeated NFL favorites are 2-13 ATS form Game Thirteen out when going into revenge, including 0-5 ATS when taking on a division opponent. With that we turn to Jack Del Rio and his 20-7 ATS mark as a dog with revenge. The Colts edged Jacksonville, 14-12, at home in the season opener and with the Jaguars still in the playoff picture, look for the points to become the play here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Jacksonville.
Ben Burns
10* Main Event
Jacksonville +3
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
#1 NFL SHOCKER OF SEASON!
With their collective "backs-against-the-wall" I look for the Jaguars to do just enough to come away with the ATS victory or outright win in this one:
The Colts have clinched home field advantage and a first round bye throughout the Playoffs and have impressive SU and ATS stats this year; one team they've always had difficulty with though is the Jaguars; Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS its last ten vs. Jacksonville.
Although Colts coach Jim Caldwell insists that finishing the regular season undefeated isn’t a top priority, he plans to play his starters tonight.
On the other side of the field: Unlike the Colts, the Jaguars (7-6) have plenty riding on their three remaining games.
With a 6-3 conference record, Jacksonville would earn a playoff spot by winning all three contests. A loss would result in the Jaguars needing help to avoid missing the postseason for the eighth time in 10 years.
Jacksonville may be 2-7 ATS its last nine, but its 4-2 SU its last six and 5-1 SU its last six in front of the hometown faithful.
Bottom line: Despite desperately needing this victory to keep its post-season drive alive, and the added motivation of wanting to be the first team to hand the Colt's a loss, the Jaguars will also be playing with "revenge" after their 14-12 season opening loss against the Colts.
Manning looked shaky against Denver; he threw three early TD's, then three INT's, before leading the Colts on a late TD drive to preserve the win; and that was in front of the hometown crowd.
With an offense that revolves around the run, the Jaguars typically need Maurice Jones-Drew to play well to be successful; they are 6-2 when Jones-Drew rushes for at least 76 yards, although one of those losses came Sept. 13, when he ran for 97 yards and a TD.
However, in this big game at home, Jones-Drew has a huge opportunity to become a big part of this contest; Indianapolis has been vulnerable against the run lately, yielding an average of 119.7 yards in the last three games.
It certainly won't be a blowout, but there are simply too many significant factors working in favor of the Jaguars on Thursday night.
No matter what they say to the media/public, the Colts have to have a small amount of complacency buried in their sub-conscience somewhere that if they are hit hard early in Thursday's game, they will be more likely to take one on the chin and roll over; look for JACKSONVILLE to improve to 5-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season and for Indianapolis to fall to 3-3 ATS vs. division opponents!
10* Jacksonville Jaguars
David Banks
Bulls/Knicks Under
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Portland -2.5
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy Colts/Jags AFC South Showdown Jacksonville +3
Brandon Lang
25 DIME - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - (if 3 you buy to 3 1/2, if 2 1/2 you buy 3. Make sure you get 3 to 3 1/2 if you can.) - I have a home underdog playing for their season against a foe they are very familiar with. Points are at a premium.
So many times the NFL season is about motivation. Who has it and who doesn't.
For my dollar, 100% of the motivation of this football game falls squarely on the shoulders of this Jags team.
Win and playoff hopes are alive. Lose and for all intents and purposes your season is over.
The blood, sweat, and hardwork you put forth all year long comes down to one home game against your arch rival who you always play tough.
The Jags are 7-2-1 ATS last 10 versus Indy. They played them very tough week one and most certainly will play them tough here.
Trust me folks, this Jags team has buried me. They did last year at home against the Steelers, and earlier this year at San Francisco.
But I won't let that take away from the 100% belief they are the right side of this game and I am going down swinging on what I feel is the right side.
Let us first start with the fact that the Jags have only lost back-to-back games once this year and that was their first 2 games of the year against Indy and the Arizona Cardinals week 2.
While Indy will rest injured players most notably Freeney and Mathis, only their two best pass rushers, the Jags get back their 2 best defense players in Rashean Mathis and John Henderson.
I have made big money with the Colts this year. They were my 75 dime winner over the Ravens. They were my 40 dime winner over the Broncos last week. They were a 15 dime winner over the Patriots.
However they are in a really bad emotional flat spot here facing a team playing in front of their biggest crowd of the year playing for season and I am getting points.
It's no secret the Jags are a terrible home favorite as evidenced by their 2-12 ATS run last 14 time laying points at home but they are not the favorite tonight, they are the home dog.
The Jags have been a home dog twice this year and they took care of business in both contests.
They were catching 3 from the Titans and blasted them 37-17, and they were catching 2 from the Texans and took care of them 23-18.
People, all things considered, I just can't see the Colts matching the intensity the Jags will have in this game for 60 minutes after accomplishing every regular season goal they had to start the year.
Division title. First round bye. Homefield advantage to the Super bowl. Mission accomplished last week over Denver.
After this game the Colts have a home game versus the physical Jets #1 defense and #1 run game in the NFL then go to cold Buffalo to finish the season.
If you accept the fact 16-0 was never a goal and isn't something they are hanging their hat on, it is then you realize the home dog is the play in this game tonight.
NFL is about intensity. Who has it to start with, who can match it and who can sustain it for 60 minutes.
The intensity for this game across the board is with the Jags and I will grab the 3 1/2 points with the home dog against an opponent they are very familiar with and comfortable playing against and covering against.
I've always said for whatever reason the Jags matchup well with Indy. They did in week one and they will here tonight.
Last point. The last 6 times Indy has tried to sweep the Jags in the regular season, they are 0-6 ATS. That is good enough for me.
Call this "Custard's Last Stand" and I will call for Jacksonville to fair a bit better than good old Custard did against the Indians.
FREE SELECTION - NEW YORK KNICKS
MATT FARGO
10* Jacksonville
RAS
All 1 Unit
Auburn +10'
Fresno -13'
E'ville -10
BIG AL
Thursday GOY
Jacksonville
MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY 62-40 ATS SYSTEM SIZZLER
NEW ORLEANS PRIVATEERS @ TROY TROJANS
3 UNITS: NEW ORLEANS PRIVATEERS +13
The Troy Trojans getting a bump in the line, mostly due to a win vs Auburn, but Auburn may be an SEC team, they don't have SEC caliber talent. The Trojans have 3 wins vs teams not even playing at the div-1 level so getting too much respect here. Privateers getting dissed by the books of a loss as a favorite by 18 to FAU, which opens the flood gates here for a big play on situation for them. Teams posted as a 10+ dog, off a 15+ point loss as a favorite, have blitzed the books for an 82-40 ATS mark, good for 67.2% covers. It shows the reaction to the last game, and how seriously it inflates the line. New Orleans gets this one.
KIKI SPORTS
1* Orlando Magic
DR GURU
10* Florida Int +17
whoa...every tout is on the Jags....
whoa...every tout is on the Jags....
Could be a very nice fade coming tonight. 8)