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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, December 17,2009

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Tony George

Eastern Washington/Nevada Under 153

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:13 pm
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BOB BALFE

Jacksonville +3

The Jaguars are down to their final lifeline. They will need to win out the have a shot at the playoffs. Their first test is the best NFL team in the league and the team with the best winning streak in NFL history. Taking the Jaguars seems not logical and one would ask why go against that streak? To me a game is a game and what happened yesterday or last year means nothing. It is hard to win an NFL Game. Just ask the Detroit Lions. Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell said only healthy players would play. With that comment I do not think you will see Mathis or Freeney on defense tonight or if you do it will be a limited role. Clearly the Colts would love to finish 16-0, but all they really care about is a Super Bowl Ring. I like the Jags in this spot even if the Colts were healthy. The Jaguars have a huge defense that should slow down the Colts already bad running game. On offense the Jags are equally as big and will be going against a banged up defense. Jacksonville has played Indy well over the past few games and the Colts have not been super on the road. I have seen their flaws and great comebacks due to the great play of Payton Manning, but I have also seen the bad closing of teams they played and of course they got by with a little bit of luck. The Jaguars will be playing in front of a sellout crowd tonight. Look for the Colts streak to end or late magic by Manning will have them win at the end of the game. Could this possibly be a Colts win and Jags cover? The public is all over the Colts tonight. Take Jacksonville.

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:14 pm
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Lenny Del Genio

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. Back in Week 1, they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime and ending Indianapolis' dream for an unbeaten season almost before it even started. It was the third time in four meetings that a game in this series was decided by three points or less. No matter what HC Jim Caldwell says, the Colts really have NOTHING to play for. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is in MUST win territory. They have won five of their last six at Alltel Stadium where they may have a bad spread record, but that's because they have failed to cash ten straight times here when favored. Tonight, they are an underdog. This is the first time all season that a home game will not be blacked out in Jacksonville. Weather will work to the Jaguars advantage as the forecast calls for strong winds and rain and remember that the Colts are a dome team playing outdoors. Jacksonville is our 20* AFC South Game of the Month.

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:14 pm
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The Duke's Sports
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Indianapolis Over (43) for 2 Units
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Both teams are operating on a short weak of prep and still recovering from physical battles last Sunday. The brunt of the physical wear and tear is on defense for both teams; for example, the Colts are severely banged up defensively,including bookends Freeney and Mathis consequently, we'll look for the jaguars to run the ball effectively with MJD and work play action successfully against a hobbling Indy secondary that's already thin in depth. On the other hand, the Jaguars are struggling to produce sacks (just 14 all year) and that should add to more passing TDs given up (20 thus far). We'll look for Manning to play pitch and catch with his plethora of targets. The Colts have hung at least 31 ppg on opponents during their last four Thursday night games. This series has gone 6-2 O/U in Jacksonville and we'll grab the "over" here.

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:36 pm
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Dwayne Bryant
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Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
Play: Orlando Magic -4
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Big revenge spot for the Magic, as Miami went into Orlando as a 9-point dog on 11/25 and came away with an upset win, 99-98. The Heat were +8 in rebounds and +7 in turnovers, and Orlando shot just 60.6% from the free-throw line (13 missed free throws). Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic's loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points. What makes that game sting even more is the fact that Orlando was embarrassed on national TV.
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Miami is coming off a huge 20-point home win over Toronto, which snapped their four-game home losing streak. We had Miami in that easy win, but we also had Orlando when they lost to the Heat in that first meeting of the season. Miami had a long team meeting (about their home court woes) leading up to that Toronto game. They obviously responded. But will the same intensity be there tonight? And will Miami be able to match the intensity that revenge-minded Orlando is sure to bring? I don't think so. We know Orlando is the more talented team, but this could get ugly with them also being the more motivated team.
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I say Miami's win in Orlando was the exception, not the rule. Orlando will not be outrebounded again. The Magic are 5th in the NBA in rebound margin, while Miami comes in at 19th. That edge on the glass will be a huge factor tonight. Orlando is not a great free-throw shooting team (70.7%), but I expect them to do better than 60.6% this time around.
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Even with the loss in the last meeting, Orlando is still 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Payback time for Orlando. Having the better team playing with same-season revenge is a winning combo. And being able to exact that revenge on national TV (TNT) only adds to Orlando's motivation. Lay it with Orlando.

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:37 pm
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Antony Dinero
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COLTS at JAGUARS
Pick: COLTS -3
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The Jags need the win more, but with Jim Caldwell pledging to play his healthy starters, expect the Colts to continue their march towards an undefeated season alive for one more week. Lay the field goal in Jacksonville, where the Jags have struggled to sell out all season as fans have grown tired of team seemingly going through the motions and stuck in traction. Maurice Jones-Drew can only do so much on a bum knee, and with Mike Sims-Walker also facing a short week to heal his nagging calf injury, the Jags don't come into this at full strength. Key defensive players John Henderson and Rashean Mathis missed the loss to Miami and won't be at 100 percent if they participate here. If the energy isn't there for the Jags, this is likely to be a game Manning wins in a half on his ability to improvise on a short week alone.

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:37 pm
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CHRIS JORDAN

300♦ COLTS - What's that you say? You thought there were some injury issues with this defense.

How about linebacker Gary Brackett?

Indy's athletic enforcer has teamed with Clint Session to form one of the deadliest duos this team has seen in quite some time. They looked tremendous against the Broncos last Sunday and I believe they'll be all over David Garrard. Granted, Garrard has the wheels to be dangerous, unlike Denver's Kyle Orton, but Brackett has the knack of using his instincts and intelligence to sniff out play-action and misdirection by opposing offensive units.

I'm counting on him to be the key to this defensive push today, as Garrard has to be pressured the entire game.

Shouldn't be that hard, as the defense has been doing for most of the season.

The undefeated Colts come into this game tied for second in the league at 16.7 points allowed, some of the smallest points allowed in a dozen or so years. The last time the defense was this stingy the Colts allowed 16.4 points per game in 2007.

So with that, my question is if the Colts are being stingy on defense and are busy shutting down the Jags, how in the world will the home team be able to keep up with one of the most prolific offenses in the league?

This is a no-brainer.

MAKE NOTE - the line is currently -3. Lay the field goal only, and if the line goes to -3-1/2, then buy the hook down. Quite honestly, it's advisable to buy the 1/2 point down to -2-1/2 off the 3 as well, in the event of garbage-time scoring in the fourth quarter, resulting in a three-point win.

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:42 pm
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NHL PRO PICKS

Dallas +110
Phoenix +143
Tampa Bay +175
LA +152

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:44 pm
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Frank Patron

100000 Unit Game Of My Career #4

Indianapolis Colts -3

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:48 pm
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ATS Hoops

4 Units Orlando

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:50 pm
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BEN BURNS

MAIN EVENT! - JAX

TNT BLUE CHIP ROUTE!- BLAZERS

TNT ROAST!! - MAGIC UNDER

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:51 pm
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Lee Sterling

1* Indianapolis

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:52 pm
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TIM TRUSHEL

20* Chicago Bulls

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 4:57 pm
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Savannah Sports

2* Jacksonville Over 42

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 5:19 pm
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Ben Burns

New Orleans at Troy State
Prediction: Troy State

I'm laying the points with TROY. The Trojans have been on the road for ages. They're back home now though and I expect them to be fully ready for tonight's game, which marks their Sun Belt opener. The Trojans have gotten ready for Sun Belt play with games against quality opponents like Florida, UAB, Houston, Marshall and Auburn, to name a few. Note that they beat Auburn outright on the road. Tonight's opponent represents a big step down in class. The Trojans are a very experienced team. They're led by the veteran backcourt trio of Brandon Hazzard, Michael Vogler and Richard Delk. All three players are averaging double-digits in scoring (44.8 ppg between them) and they're combining to average 10.3 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game. Center Coleman is also scoring in double-digits while contributing 7.3 boards. After losing nearly all their players the previous season, the Privateers do return three starters this year. That said, none of them averaged as many as seven points per game last season. Overall, they lost 70% of their scoring production from last season. While I already mentioned that the Trojans faced some very strong opposition, the same can't really be said of the Privateers. Give them some credit for beating Tulane and hanging within eight of Georgia, in their opener. (Also, they lost by 17 vs. NC State) However, the rest of their opponents have been very weak. They still haven't fared that well though. in their most recent game, playing at home and facing Florida Atlantic, they lost by 18. With the cover at Houston in their last game, the Trojans are now 4-0 ATS their last four lined games, after having played three straight on the road. That also brought them to 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 lined games played in December. The Trojans won and covered when these teams played last season. Laying -7, Troy won by a score of 83-72. This is a better Trojans team and I look for them to begin conference play with an even more convincing victory this evening. *9 Blowout GOW

 
Posted : December 17, 2009 5:33 pm
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