Dr. Bob
San Diego St. (-4.5) 32 Navy 29 (at Poinsettia Bowl)
San Diego State is playing this game in their home stadium but their home field advantage is not likely to be as strong as normal since Navy should have plenty of backers in a military rich community with two military bases and a lot of retired Navy veterans in the area. Navy is 2-0 AST in the Poinsettia Bowl, winning by 21 points as a 2 ½ point favorite over Colorado State in 2005 and losing by just 3 points as an 8 point dog to a good Utah team in 2007. Home field advantage is really half home team advantage and half road team disadvantage, so I’ll give San Diego State their part of the home field advantage while not applying Navy’s road disadvantage. Navy doesn’t usually have a road disadvantage anyway, as the Midshipmen are 63% ATS away from home the last 30 years, including 5-2 ATS this season and 87-42-1 ATS since 1991 and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. Military teams in general tend to play well in bowl games, as Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 23-9 ATS in bowl games since 1976, including 17-3 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or higher. Perhaps military teams use their extreme discipline to remain focused during the weeks leading up to a bowl game while the focus of non-military teams may wander at times. Whatever the reason, it’s certainly not a trend I’m willing to buck if the line is fair.
Navy is probably going to have to score a good number of points to stay close in this game since their sub-par pass defense (6.2 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average defensive team). This game will be the first all season that Navy has had to face a good quarterback, as San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley actually ranked at 15th in the nation in compensated yards per pass play, averaging 8.3 yppp against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Navy did face 3 average passing teams and the Middies gave up 7.1 yppp in those 3 games to Duke, Notre Dame, and East Carolina – teams that would combine to average just 6.1 yppp against an average defense. Lindley will likely put up big passing numbers and Aztecs’ back Ronnie Hillman (1304 yards at 5.6 ypr) should run well against a below average Navy defensive front that allowed 5.1 yards per rushing play this season. My math model projects 479 yards at 6.9 yards per play for San Diego State in this game, which should lead to between 30 and 40 points.
Navy’s offense was very good this season, averaging 6.3 yards per play in quarterback Ricky Dobbs’ 10 starts against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Navy’s option should move the ball at about their normal level against a good but not great San Diego State defense that gave up 4.5 yards per rushing play and 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp and 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The Aztecs did a decent job defending the Air Force triple-option attack earlier in the season, limiting the Falcons to 5.3 yppl and 25 points (Air Force would average 5.7 yppl and 26.7 points on the road against an average defense) and my math model projects 417 yards at 6.0 yppl for Navy in this game, which is a little less than the Middies’ normal offensive output.
My math model favors San Diego State by 5 points overall giving them half of the normal home field advantage, so the line is pretty fair in this game. Navy has scored 28 points or more in their last 8 games, including against a solid SMU defense and a good Notre Dame defense so the Midshipmen should be able to match points with a San Diego State attack that will surely be able to move the ball. With the line being fair, I will lean with Navy at +3 ½ points or more based on the success of military teams in bowl games and the good ATS mark of the Midshipmen away from home. My math model projects 63 total points but Navy’s games were about 3 ½ points lower scoring than their stats would project so a line of 60 points is reasonable. Thus, I have no opinion on the total.
Stephen Nover
50 Dime San Diego State Aztecs
10 Dime Carolina Panthers
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Magic -2
6* Penguins Under
Anthony Reed
100 Dime Navy
50 Dime Navy 1st Half
RAS
UC Irvine +16
Billy Coleman
3* San Diego St.
4* SA/Orl Under 198
3* Miami -6.5
4* Georgetown -4.5
3* Minnesota +150
Teddy Covers
Bucks
S Mississippi
Washington St
Rocky Sheridan
5* Baylor -2.5
Helmut
Baylor -3
Bob Balfe
Pittsburgh -14
San Diego St -3
Totals4U
Steelers / Panthers Under 37
Navy / San Diego State Over 59.5
Spurs / Magic Under 199.5
Bucks / Kings Over 185.5
Heat / Suns Under 209
Power Play Wins
Miami Heat -6.5
Jimmy Boyd
5* Orlando -2
3* Pittsburgh -14
3*Navy +3
Crown City Sports
5* Memphis +4.5
5* Tampa Bay +126
Lenny Del Genio
Oddsmaker Mismatch - San Diego St
Aztecs HC Brady Hoke has done a fine job turning around the SDSU program after going 4-8 in his initial campaign LY. He inherited a team that had gone 9-27 SU the three years prior to his arrival and in just two years has them bowling for the first time since 1998, which is also the last year the program posted a winning record. Their eight wins this season were the most since the '96 squad. Even more impressive is the fact the Aztec's four losses this season - two of which were against TCU and Utah - came by a combined 14 points. They very nearly pulled off outright road wins at both TCU and Missouri. QB Lindley led the conference in passing yards and has two WR's in the top ten in the nation in receiving. RB Hillman was the MWC Freshman of the Year. The defense isn't too shabby either as they held four different opponents under 90 yds rushing, which is essential when facing the triple-option of Navy. They also faced a similar Air Force team earlier in the season, and while they did allow nearly 500 total yards in the contest, it did so on 92 plays. That's an average of just 5.4 yards per play. There is also the matter that they beat the Falcons 27-25 and that Navy scored just six points when it played the AFA. Meanwhile, the Navy secondary does not match up well against the SDSU WR's and the 12th rated passing attack in the nation. Then, there is the homefield advantage SDSU will enjoy in this game. Sure, San Diego is also home to the largest Naval base in the country, but it was the Aztecs that went 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in this stadium this year. The final important thing to consider is that Navy has had less than two weeks to prepare for this bowl game as they played the final game of the CFB regular season against rival Army on 12.11. The Midshipmen found themselves in a similar situation two years ago (less than two wks to prepare) in Eagle Bank Bowl vs. Wake Forest and lost that game 29-19 as three-point dogs. Similar story here. We love how this line has been dropping all week. San Diego State is our CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch.