Master Sports
3* Baylor
ATS Lock Club
3 Units San Diego St -3
4 Units Baylor -3
3 Units Colorado St. +5.5
Sixth Sense
PITTSBURGH -14.5 Carolina 37
Carolina picked up their second win of the year at home over Arizona, 19-12. They rushed for 177 yards at 3.9ypr to just 2.5ypr for Arizona. They even threw the ball well at 6.0yps to just 4.9yps for Arizona. Overall, Carolina out gained Arizona 4.6yppl to 4.1yppl. Those numbers are really even worse when you consider Carolina ran the ball 28 more times than Arizona, while they passed it 15 fewer times. Pittsburgh lost at home to the Jets, 22-17. They rushed for 147 yards at 5.9ypr to just 3.9ypr for NY, but were out passed 5.7yps to 4.9yps. Overall, Pittsburgh out gained the Jets 5.3yppl to 4.8yppl, partly because they threw the ball 17 more times.
Carolina averages 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.5yps against 6.1yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
Carolina qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 157-80-6. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 18 points and predict about 35 points. Carolina has lost six of their seven games against above .500 teams by at least 13 points. Their other loss was by two points at New Orleans when NO wasn’t playing well. NO beat them by 31 points later in the year. Pittsburgh was 0-5 ATS last year laying double digit points. They defeated Cleveland and covered in their only double digit spread this year. I’d like to play Carolina against a banged up Steelers team just looking to win, not necessarily looking to cover but Carolina just hasn’t been competitive against good teams this year. If I were getting 16-17 points I would play Carolina but not at this numbers. PITTSBURGH 24 CAROLINA 13
Larry Ness
Legend - Orland Magic
RAS
Washington St / Baylor Over132
Northcoast
3* San Diego State
Marquee - San Diego State Over
Dr Bob
SA Spurs +2.5
Opinion
Milwaukee -2
The Kings have won only 1 of their last 15 games and the Bucks are actually better off without injury guard Brandon Jennings. My ratings favor Milwaukee by 4 points based on games for the entire season and I think the line should be a bit higher without Jennings playing. There could be a bit of a letdown after beating the Lakers in L.A., but I’ll lean with Milwaukee in this one anyway.
Cowtown Sports
3* Navy +3
Trace Adams
Navy
KELSO
50 Units Navy/SD State Under 58
3 Units Pittsburgh -14
25 Units IUPUI -4
10 Units Indiana -2.5
Wunderdog
Navy
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Steelers Under
10* GOM San Diego St
David Malinsky
4* CAROLINA over PITTSBURGH
It is rare that we find a pointspread this high in a game that brings both play-on and play-against elements, and that makes it easy for us to get in play.
Carolina brings much more to the table than the usual underdog of this range the defense has had a solid season, and the ground game has actually been among the NFL’s elite, especially when we factor the lack of support from the passing attack. The rush defense is allowing 4.0 per carry, which you can live with, while the pass defense is holding opposing QB’s to a 76.8 rating, with more INT’s (17) than TD passes allowed (16). Overland they have piled up 1,635 yards at 4.2 per attempt, keyed by 668 and 4.5 from Jonathan Stewart and 435 at 4.5 from Mike Goodson, a nice one-two combo that can change the pace. Yes, the QB play from Jimmy Clausen has been poor, but that is also what creates the impression of this team being much worse than they are. With an adequate passing game the Panthers could have played .500 football. Yet even through their 2-12 slide we have seen no sign of them losing the will to compete, and if anything believe that their win on Sunday, in what was the last game in Charlotte for head coach John Fox, buoys them to a solid effort tonight. Fox was presented the game ball after that win, and several players used it as a platform to talk about how much respect he carries through the locker room.
From Jon Beason “He’s a player’s coach. He knows when to be a coach, when to be a friend and when to be a father.” And tackle Jordan Gross: “I think it’s special when you have a coach that cares about you as much as he does.” And Jeff King: “He’s just one of those head coaches you want to rally around. He doesn’t ask you to do anything he doesn’t do.”
Fox and the Panthers can use that focus to compete all the way here against a Pittsburgh team that simply is not all that special right now. We noted in this week’s edition of Verities & Balderdash the major gap in defensive performance when Troy Polamalu has been out (29-8 with him vs. 5-7 without, allowing 8.7 more points per game), and while the numbers seem extreme for a single player, note that in most of his absences the past two seasons fellow Pro Bowler Aaron Smith has also been out. And that is the case again tonight. Meanwhile the offense has only reached the end zone four times in the last four games, with a patchwork OL already allowing 38 sacks. They will play well enough to win here, but are hard-pressed to build a margin in a game that they simply do not physically dominate the way that this line is projecting.
Pat Hawkins
Navy vs San Diego State
Pick: Navy +4.5
San Diego St caps a great season with a bowl game in their home stadium, does this mean that the Aztec's might not be so motivated to play Navy? Navy should be able to run the ball with ease against this defense, the triple option shredded San Diego St when they played a similar offense in Air Force. Military teams are 17-3 ATS when playing opponents with a winning % of .600 or better, look for a great game, grab the points.
Evan Altemus
1* Indiana -2.5
Indiana has two things going for them in this game. They play much better defense than Colorado, and they have played better competition this season. The Hoosiers played fairly well against Kentucky, despite losing by double digits. They held the Wildcats to 36% shooting but were dominated on the boards and with foul shots. They also played fairly well against a good Boston College team on the road too. Meanwhile, Colorado has not played any challenging teams this season before last night against New Mexico, and they have not played good defense this season. Indiana's defense will be the key, and they are a slightly better overall team than Colorado. The Hoosiers are a decent foul shooting team as well, shooting close to 70% on the season, which could prove critical late in the game. Look for Indiana to get the win.