Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, December 24,2009

DR BOB

**SMU 31 Nevada (-12.5) 35 (at Hawaii Bowl)

I'll take SMU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 3-Stars at +14 or more. I will also lean with the Under 69 points or higher.Strong Opinion

ATS LOCK CLUB

3 Units SMU +12.5

3 Units SMU/Nevada Over 72

Trey Scott

*200 SMU/NEVADA OVER 72

Street Rosenthal

*200 SMU +12.5

Seabass

50* Nevada

Brandon Lang

25 DIME - SMU MUSTANGS - #1 PLAY - June Jones, I've always liked him as a coach, and I like him and his ballclub catching double digits at a venue he is very comfortable in.

As coach of Hawaii from 1999 to 2007, Jones built the program to what it is today and his imprint on their offense is still in place.

In fact, the first thing that got me on SMU tonight was Nevada's game at Hawaii this year, a game they won 31-21 as a 29 point favorite.

Now I feel they see a similar system in SMU but only better, and to see them struggle in that game to win by 10, to struggle at Utah State to win 38-35 as an 8 1/2 point favorite, the points are very attractive here.

Jones is twice the game coach Chris Ault will ever be, and you give me a June Jones team this much time to prepare for Nevada defense that is average at best and a pass defense this horrific, I will gladly jump on it.

Now the world is aware of Nevada and their # 1 rush offense in the country but if you are going to cover the biggest bowl pointspread you have got to have a defense and Nevada most certainly doesn't have that.

Of all Division One teams ranked statistically - of which there are 119, the Wolfpack rank # 26 against the run, and are you ready for this: 2nd worst pass defense in all of college football.

Folks, it all adds up to the 88th ranked defense in college football and I can't trust the 2nd worst pass defense in all of college football to cover a double digit number.

I am going to jump on the double digits and watch June Jones out coach Chris Ault and stay well within this number

As coach of Nevada Ault is a very unimpressive 1-5 SU in bowl games and just 1-3 ATS as a bowl favorite and that my friends is the final nail in the coffin for grabbing the double digit dog tonight.

25 DIME -SMU-NEVADA UNDER -Now as far as the total is concerned, I just don't see how with this much time off, and Nevada missing two of their 1,000 yard rushers that this game is going over the total.

You can't lose 2 guys in your backfield of that caliber and expect your offense to not miss a beat. Fact of the matter is I expect them to miss more than a beat or two.

Nevada played 12 games this year, and 6 of those 12 went Under. Not like they went over every game now is it.

Look for June Jones to be the one to move the chains in the passing game, keep the high-powered Nevada run game sitting on the sidelines, controlling the clock.

Jones knows how to win this game, how to coach this game and it's not to get in a shootout.

25 DIME - 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER - SMU & UNDER -I love SMU and the Under so much, I am going for the 3-0 sweep and to push my bowl record with paid and comp plays to 6-1 this bowl season with a 2-team 6-point teaser on SMU and the Under.

Let's take SMU to +18 1/2 or so, and let's take the total, which is currently at 72 as of this writing up to 78 and roll the dice with the Under there as well.

And that ladies and gentleman is your 25 dime Christmas Eve trifecta.

Have a great Christmas eveyone. Enjoy the time with family and friends, and I will talk to you on Christmas day.

FREE SELECTION - ORLANDO MAGIC - CHRISTMAS DAY

Judd Hall

Nevada vs. SMU
Pick: SMU +13

We're just a night away from the Hawaii Bowl and things have went from bad to worse for the Wolf Pack. Nevada's offense took a hit w/ Lippincott and Taua being out of the lineup. Now comes word that the defense will not have aftey Duke Williams for the game and linebacker Andre Davis for the game. The Pack has a lousy pass defense and that is SMU's bread and butter. This game might turn out to be an outright upset, but definitely play the Mustangs.

Wayne Root

Millionaire - SMU

LARRY NESS

My December Bowl Game of the Month is on Nevada

Often, at least in these "early bowls," the team that wants to be there more is the team that covers the spread. Just look at Wyoming over Fresno State. That said, "wanting to be there more" can only take a team so far and it's not enough to overcome a significant difference in talent level. In this case, one could make the case that SMU is the team that wants to be here more. After all, it's the Mustangs first bowl appearance in a quarter of a century. Additionally, there's the "June Jones factor." As you're aware, Jones, now the head guy at SMU, used to coach here at Hawaii. However, I'm of the thinking that Nevada will be the team that comes in with something to prove and that the Wolfpack's superior edge in talent will be what eventually leads to a win and cover. Obviously, both teams "want to win." The Mustangs have already achieved their goal - which was just to make it to a bowl game. Even if they lose here, its still been a great year. That's not enough for the Wolfpack though. Sure, they would have loved to beat Boise and win the WAC Title. The season can still be considered a success with a big win here though. If they lose though, it will most definitely be considered a failure. Extra motivation will come from the fact that the Wolfpack have lost three straight bowl games. They're determined to right the ship here. Lets take a look at the numbers. SMU has played tough in almost all its games against mediocre opposition and we can give the Mustangs credit for beating East Carolina, early in the year. The Pirates only average 27.8 points per game though. When matched up against more powerful offenses the Mustangs, who had the misfortune of facing two of the top five offenses in football, weren't able to keep up. They played Houston (#2 in nation with 43.9 ppg) and lost by 23 points. They also played TCU (#4 with 40.7 ppg) and lost by 25. Now, they'll face a Nevada team that also ranked in the top 5 in the country for points scored - the Wolfpack averaged 40.6 ppg. Once again, I feel they'll have trouble keeping up. The Wolfpack lost their reg. season finale and scored 'only' 33 points. That was at Boise though, among the toughest venues in the country. Prior to that, the Wolfpack had won eight straight games and they'd scored 50+ points in three straight and four of five. In fact, they topped 60 in three of those games, scoring 70 against Idaho. June Jones may be familiar with playing at Hawaii but his team is not. The last time that the Mustangs were here was in 2002 - they lost by 32. Already "happy to be here," it will be easy to get caught up in the festive island atmoshpere. The Wolfpack play here every other year though, so the trip isn't quite so special. They should be more focused on the task at hand. They'll put up a pile of points and the Mustangs, who average only 27.9 (24.8 on the road) points, won't be able to keep up. The Wolfpack are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 range and with the line falling from its opener, we're getting excellent value. *10 Nevada

Anthony Redd

10 Dime SMU

Great Lakes Sports

4* SMU

Vegas Hotsheet

Nevada

The Booooj

15 Units SMU (+12) over Nevada

Dave Malinsky

4* SMU over NEVADA

Our penchant for taking double-figure underdogs in these bowl games will absolutely have us in play here, and we will provide more details on Sunday afternoon. But we would go to market now, while the full +14?s are still out there. For Nevada to lose either Vai Taua or Luke Lippincott would not be that big of a deal, because either could seamlessly replace the other. But to lose both is a major blow ? the combined for 2,379 yards and 19 rushing TD?s on 306 attempts, and 22 receptions for four more scores, and because of that workload there is precious little experience behind them, with Lampford Mark next in line at only 44 carries. They lose both leadership and talent here, and while they will still play hard to win the game, the odds of getting a margin have been greatly diminished. Now the rest of the story. While there always the knee jerk reaction to believe that S.M.U. earned this spot because the Mustangs adapted to the June Jones passing playbook in the second season under the system, the truth was a bit different. While they were more effective in the air, with Kyle Padron stepping in well at QB after Bo Levi Mitchell was injured, the real keys were major improvements in the ground game (nearly three times as many yards per game as LY), and on defense (they allowed nine fewer points and 76 fewer yards). They are not a ?One Trick Pony? for this matchup, but rather a team that is not overmatched in any particular area with those key Nevada losses at the RB position. We usually do not get to take this many points when that is the case, and the chance for Jones to work with Padron in what is like having August raining camp all over again, more wrinkles can be added to the offensive huddle, which means a chance to exploit a slow Wolfpack secondary that finished 114th in Pass Efficiency, and 119th in passing yards allowed. An underdog that can make plays through the air with consistency will rarely be out of a game, and it also keeps the back-door open should that path be needed.

Steve Duemig

30 Dime - Southern Methodist

In this game we have the highest point spread differential between these two teams than in any other bowl game. Wierd line movement as well in this one. It opened at 12.5 and went all the way up to 14.5-15 in some spots. That was before it became known that the Wolfpack's other 100 rusher Vai Taua was declared academically ineligible for this game. Previously, Luke Lippincott, also a 1000 yard rusher has a toe injury and will miss the game. That's a pretty damn big chunk of the nation's leading rushing attack. Now the line is right back where it started from. June Jones is the coach of SMU and has them back into a bowl for the first time since the NCAA declared the death penalty on them back in the days of Craig James. The Wolfpack's weakest element of their team is that they are DEAD LAST in the NCAA in pass defense. Yep, the dreaded 119th!! That's how many D-1 schools there are!! When Jones was with Hawaii we all know how prolific his passing game was and it's not quite Hawaii standards, but the definitely pass more than they run, and by a solid margin.

We also can draw from the fact that Jones is very familiar with "The Pistol" offense employed by Nevada and as a matter of fact, he has never lost to Nevada (4-0). The Wolfpack has not had a lot of success in bowl games recently going 0-3 and we all know what their ATS record is away from Reno. If you don't know, suffice it to say that 'Taint good. Under dog trend still doing well over recent years, especially getting more than a TD.