Teddy Covers
Arkansas St. at Western Kentucky
PICK: Western Kentucky
We cashed a ticket with Western Kentucky last Saturday as they travelled to Florida Atlantic as double digit underdogs. The Hilltoppers led in the second half before falling short of the outright victory, still covering with ease in a six point defeat.
At 0-11, losing is nothing new for Western Kentucky – let’s not forget that they ended last year on an eight game slide. Head coach David Elson was fired following their loss to Troy four weeks ago, but he’s stayed through the end of the season. Since Elson’s dismissal, we’ve seen nothing but effort and energy from this downtrodden squad. They hung tough as 22 point underdogs at Louisiana-Monroe, losing by only three points, prior to last week’s game against FAU.
Do not expect the Hilltoppers to go quietly here either. This may be a winless team, but they don’t intend to stay that way. Here are some relevant quotes from Elson earlier this week:
“When times get tough, there’s only one thing you can do and that’s work - keep working. And when you really think about it, what that does is keep your mind from wandering places and let it be affected by things it doesn’t need to be affected by…..I’ve been very proud of how these guys have handled this. It’s really, really frustrating that we haven’t been able to win one of these two, but you’ve got to look at the big picture. The effort’s there, I still believe it’s going to come and I still believe it’s going to come. And I really hope it does Thursday night, so those (seniors) can sing that fight song one last time.”
Elson also talked about the pressure that Western Kentucky’s 13 seniors were likely to feel as they strive for that elusive victory. “I can see that being a potential issue come Thursday night - they want to win so bad. We’ll guard against (pressure) and say, ‘Relax and play.’ We’ve made some strides in some areas. Stay the course, keep improving at the things we’ve tried to improve at. It hasn’t worked on the scoreboard, and that’s the most frustrating thing. But we know it’s starting to click for certain guys.”
While Western Kentucky can be expected to play with pride and energy for their departing coach, things aren’t quite so rosy for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves came into the season expecting to compete for a Sun Belt title. Instead, they’ve slumped to a 3-8 record; just 2-5 in Sun Belt play. Steve Roberts squad is winless on the road this year; losers of 18 of their last 20 on the highway. They did their best to blow a 27-0 halftime lead against lowly North Texas last week, barely hanging on for a six point win as 12 point favorites.
Arkansas State senior quarterback Corey Leonard has been benched for injuries and ineffectiveness, leaving frosh Ryan Aplin to lead the offense. Aplin threw two interceptions deep in North Texas territory last week, with a 2-6 touchdown to interception ratio for the season. Senior running back Reggie Arnold has been banged up all year as well. The Red Wolves have been besieged by injuries on the offensive line; forced to use three different starting centers in recent weeks. Defensively, we’ve seen the Red Wolves struggle in every recent road game, allowing 35+ in each of their last two Sun Belt road games.
After snapping their own four game skid with a home win on senior day last week, it’s simply not realistic to expect Arkansas State to bring the same level of energy and enthusiasm for their season finale as their opponent will bring. The Red Wolves certainly have a lousy track record in season ending games under Roberts, winning only once in their last six tries. This team has absolutely no business as a road favorite in this price range.
Big Ticket: 7* Take Western Kentucky.
Nick 'BookieKiller" Parsons
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Mark Sanchez was 13 of 17 for 154 yards and just one INT Sunday, enabling the defense to carry the Jets to a 17-6 victory over Carolina, snapping a three-game losing streak. The Panthers were held to 179 total yards - an effort resembling New York's stingy play during its 3-0 start and I look for it to build off that performance.
Despite their recent struggles, and because of last week's stalwart defensive effort, the Jets remain one game out in a crowded AFC wild-card race and two back in the division chase.
On the other side of the field: Buffalo had lost five games this season in which they led or were tied in the final quarter. But against the Dolphins, the Bills snapped a 14-14 tie by erupting for 17 points in a span of 2:15 with less than four minutes to play; I believe they'll suffer a "letdown" offensively against an extremely alert Jet secondary in Toronto though.
The Bills had four INT's against Miami last time out, boosting their takeaway total to 25 - tied for third-most in the NFL.
They picked off the Jets six times in a 16-13 overtime road victory Oct. 18, with New York rookie Mark Sanchez all but throwing the game away with five INT's.
As it proved against Miami last Sunday, Buffalo's defense can take a game over in the fourth quarter if it has been rested. Putting together some well-balanced, clock-eating drives early by the offense will be critical as well if the Bills want a chance at winning this game
Keep in mind the total has gone under the posted number in five of Buffalo's last seven overall.
Bottom line: When the ball is in his hands, look for Sanchez to manage both the game and his wonky knee without taking too many chances; despite their record, New York boasts the league's No. 2 overall defense and had a dominating performance last weekend.
When you take into account all of the above factors, I have to recommend a play on the UNDER!
*10* NYJ/BUF UNDER 37
Double Dragon
Oregon State +9
Vernon Croy
Thursday Night NCAA Football Civil War Smash
3* Oregon
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Ducks are the superior team here Thursday night. The Ducks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a bye week and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing a team with a winning road record. The Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a win in their previous game. The Ducks are averaging 42.3 ppg at home this season while out-scoring their opponents by an average of 24 ppg. Take the Oregon Ducks as my Thursday Night Civil War Smash.
National Sports Service Picks
5* Oregon -10 over Oregon St.
4* N.Y. Jets/Buffalo OVER 37
3* Arkansas St. -5.5 over W. Kentucky
SportsBetsNow
1 Unit BUFF/NYJ UNDER 37
1 Unit Oregon -9.5
Mark Lawrence
Oregon St
Princeton
Dave Malinsky
4* OREGON STATE over OREGON
We can understand why Oregon has had such sex appeal in the marketplace, because of the flashy nature of that spread offense. But to be -10 over a team that has been every bit as good this season, in a high-pressure setting with the Rose Bowl on the line? That does not fit. But it exists because a team from a quiet media outpost like Corvallis just does not bring the same sex appeal, regardless of how well they play.A lot of the numbers here can be updated from that 6* call that we made on Mike Riley and his Beavers three games back at California, when they rolled 31-14 despite being 7-point underdogs. It might look like an extreme result based on the line, but it was nothing new at all. The last four seasons State has gone 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS over the last six weeks of the season, and over those four campaigns that have gone 8-2 ATS as Pac 10 road underdogs, with six SU wins. No matter how much success they have they continue to get under-valued by the betting markets. Yet there should be some sex appeal here, with the Rodgers brothers among the most explosive sibling combinations to ever play together, with 1573 rushing yards and 19 TD’s at 5.4, 144 receptions for 1,301 yards and nine TD’s, and 785 return yards.The presence of those two has made the SR season for Sean Canfield at QB a special one. When you have two special talents on the field at the same time it means an ability to stretch defenses and run plays that do not require a lot of risk, and Canfield has directed what has been an almost flawless offense. His 70.3 percent completion rate is within reach of the Pac 10 record of 70.7, and in 782 offensive snaps this offense has only turned the ball over nine times. That puts them prime in our “Tough Out” category – when you have big-time playmakers, and do not make mistakes to beat yourself, you are rarely out of any game, especially with the confidence they bring from all of those past road successes (including that 38-31 win two years ago in the last trip to this field).Oregon is over-rated here because while what the Ducks do well they do every well, they are also nothing special in far too many areas. They are in an intense fight here to merely win the game outright, and do not bring the advantages of this classy opponent to mount any kind of margin.
4* TEXAS over SOUTHERN CAL
There is almost no way for this one to turn out other than ugly. Yet we are seeing fair value being offered for this rout because the marketplace has not had a chance to adjust for just how depleted Southern Cal is right now. And every one of those Trojan weaknesses make this among the worst matchups that they could possibly face.Kevin O’Neill is just trying to keep the dam from bursting in the early part of the season. He only has six players in his rotation until Leonard Washington and Michael Gerrity, and none of them are C’s or PG’s. So the problem begins. If you lack depth, playing Texas in Austin is a monstrous headache, with Rick Barnes having nine players going at least 11 minutes per game, and no one having to average more than 28. They will play tenaciously for every minute of the game, especially on the boards and on defense, and that is where the particular Southern Cal problems get exposed. They have little chance to competing on the boards vs. a team winning that battle by +10 per game, and without PG play how do the Trojans find open looks against a defense allowing 32.8 percent from the field, and 21.7 from beyond the arc?We saw the lack of cohesion from the Southern Cal offense in Sunday’s home loss to Nebraska, when they could score just 48 points, and had more than twice as many turnovers (17) as assists (8). We also saw that the lack of depth forces the defense into conservative schemes to stay fresh, only forcing seven turnovers in that same game. And that was at home. Now the mist-matched assortment takes to the road for the first time, and O’Neill is forced to treat it as an 80-minute cycle instead of just one game – there is also a tough encounter at Georgia Tech on Saturday night. So there will be no scrambling hard to play from behind here; if it gets away he may just let it go, and try to save some energy for Saturday. Meanwhile for Texas this is the first home game since November 18th, and all the Longhorns have on deck is Long Beach State on this court Monday night. There is nothing in the way of 40 minutes of hard basketball, which is what Barnes demands each time out, and the Trojans can not stand up to that.
RAS
1 UNIT - Idaho +1
Brandon Lang
20 DIME - NEW YORK JETS - (If 3 1/2, you buy down to 3, and if 3 you buy down to 2 1/2) - In using the Saints as my 7th straight 20 dime winner on Monday night one thing made all the difference in the world for me.
The Saints offensive line was 3rd best in the league at protecting Drew Brees allowing just 14 sacks all year versus a New England defense ranked 28th at getting to the QB.
Drew Brees with time to throw = blowout victory. Simple as that.
Tonight the Jets take the 2nd best rush offense in the NFL against the worst run defense in all of football in the Buffalo Bills.
Folks, you can't stop the run in the NFL and rest assured more times than not, you are going to get beat.
In the first meeting between these two the Jets ran for over 300 yards and still figured out a way to lose the game in OT because of the stupidity of the Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
I remember watching the first game saying to myself, "Why is this man dropping Sanchez back in windy conditions throwing the football when they are having so much success running it?"
I'm talking about 6 INT's in just 30 pass attempts.
Well I truly believe Mr. Schottenheimer has most certainly learned his lesson from that game and on this neutral site tonight I fully expect a large dose of Thomas Jones and many successful play action situations for young Mr. Sanchez.
The Bills come off a nice win against the Dolphins last game out but that is all it was, a nice win. They can't make the playoffs, and they are facing a team that is still alive and who's defense is playing much better.
They have adjusted to the loss of Kris Jenkins and their secondary did a great job against Steve Smith last week. Looks like the little bit of glory Terrell Owens received will be short-lived against arguably the best cover corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis.
This is all about the run offense of the Jets controlling the clock, controlling the game and most importantly controlling Mark Sanchez, who last week just did what he was asked, manage the game and the Jets managed a 17-6 win.
Last question. Who has the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL? Answer: The Oakland Raiders.
The Jets beat them 38-0. Enough said.
FREE SELECTION - OREGON STATE BEAVERS
Charlie's Sports
500* Bills +3
500* Arkansas St -6
500* Oregon St @ Oregon Over 62'
30* Oregon -9'
20* Jets @ bills Under 37
20* Texas -20
10* Miami +9
Boston +2 Free Play
MR EAST
NY JETS vs BUFFALO BILLS (AT TORONTO, CANADA)
PLAY: UNDER 37 3 UNITS
The New York Jets are getting healthy, and they have begun to stop the run, something they couldn't do early in the season. They also have CB Lito Sheppard back to play with the NFL's bestDarelle Rivas. He will take Owen's out of the game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to struggle here. The Jets have to limit the exposure of QB Mark Sanchez, because the Bills have 20 INT's on the season, and possess a very opportunistic secondary. I look for the Jets to pound the rocj vs a soft Bills front. While Sanchez has had most of his problems in 4 games, he has played 7 of the 11 with 1 INT or less. The Bills, and for reasons unknown, are 3-21 ATS after the Dolphins (just a footnote, not my reason here). I like the Jets in this one, as I think they can pound the ball, and with the secondary and run defense improved, I don't see the Bills scoring much here. I'll go with the under in this one for a 3 unit play.
Jim Feist
Total Oddsmaker Error
The Jets (5-6 SU/ATS) are riding a 2-6 SU/ATS run under rookie QB Mark Sanchez (10 TDs, 17 INTs) and new coach Rex Ryan. Because Sanchez was struggling so much, the Jets introduced a color-coded play-calling system for their rookie quarterback last week. The move was at the behest of coach Rex Ryan, who wanted to simplify things for Sanchez. The loss of NT Kris Jenkins (knee) for the year is a huge blow for the defense and it is taking a toll: They allowed 139 yards rushing in a 24-22 home loss to Jacksonville. The Jets will be short on cornerbacks Thursday with Dwight Lowery (ankle) and Donald Strickland (concussion) unable to practice this week. They are the team's third- and fourth- best corners. The Bills (4-7 SU/5-6 ATS) are showing some life under new coach Perry Fewell and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 TDs, 6 picks). Fewell felt Fitzpatrick gave the team a better chance to win, and the kid threw for 246 yards in Sunday’s 31-14 win of Miami. WR Terrell Owens has been a plus since Fitzpatrick took over: Owens caught nine passes for 197 yards, including a team-record 98-yarder for a score, two weeks ago in an 18-15 loss at Jacksonville, and 5 catches for 96 yards against Miami. The Bills have injuries in the secondary and this game has a low total. Look for more offense than oddsmakers expect, play the Jets/Bills Over the total.
John Ryan
Oregon State vs. Oregon
Play: Under 62.5
5* graded play UNDER the posted total presently at 62.5. AiS shows a 75% probability that 75 or fewer points will be scored in this game. The dominant reason why is the OSU defense, who ranks first against the run in the Pac-10. Oregon, of course, brings a different animal to the table with their spread running offensive scheme. OSU has proven, though, that they have the gap discipline necessary to contain the Oregon offense. Here is a supporting system that has gone 29-9 UNDER for 76% winners since 1992. Play under with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after a win by 21 or more points facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. Oregon has an 87% probability that of gaining between 150 and 200 net passing yards. Note that OSU is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. OSU is also 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. Take the UNDER.
BEN BURNS
AFC East TOM - NYJ/Buf Under