KBHoops
5* Denver Nuggets -8.5 *POD*
5* Texas -20
4* Oregon State +10 -120
Pitbull
20 units Tennessee State Pk
20 units Idaho Pk
15 units Citadel Pk
10 units NY Jets -3
Mike Lineback
4* Boston Celtics/San Antonio Spurs OVER 187.5
4* Houston Rockets -1.5
4* Miami Heat/Denver Nuggers UNDER 211
Dr. Bob
Opinion
New York Jets (-3) 21 Buffalo 14 (at Toronto)
Buffalo has played better under interim coach Perry Fewell, as the Bills have out-gained their opponents 6.5 yards per play to 4.7 yppl in his two games leading the team. The offensive increase is mostly just random positive variance most likely, although the decision to make Fred Jackson the #1 running back over Marshawn Lynch last week was a good move given that Jackson has averaged 4.1 ypr and Lynch just 3.1 ypr this season. Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a couple of good games in succession since returning to the starting role, as he's hit Terrell Owens for big plays in consecutive weeks. Fitzpatrick, however, is still 0.3 yards per pass play worse than average for the season (5.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he's much worse than that for his career, so it's likely that the last two weeks are a fluke. Fitzpatrick will certainly have a tougher time maintaining his hot streak against a Jets' secondary that is the NFL's best now that CB Lito Sheppard is healthy again and playing opposite of the league's best cornerback Darrelle Revis. In 4 games with Sheppard starting the Jets have yielded just 4.1 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense), so I don't expect much from the Bills' pass attack in this game and the mediocre running of Jackson won't be enough for the Bills to mount much of an offense.
New York, meanwhile, should be able to run the ball well against a soft Buffalo run defense (5.0 ypr allowed) and Sanchez has improved since WR Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury to join Braylon Edwards and give Sanchez to solid wideouts to throw to. Sanchez is still worse than average on a yards per pass play perspective in the 4 games with both Cotchery and Edwards (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) and he's averaging 1.5 interceptions per game, although he's thrown 1 or fewer picks in 7 of the 11 games. Buffalo defends the pass well (5.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) and the Bills have intercepted 20 passes in 11 games, so Sanchez needs to be careful. There is no need not to be careful with the Jets' ground attack likely to work well in this game (4.9 ypr projected).
My math model favors New York by 6 1/2 points on this neutral field in Toronto and that makes them a pretty solid play at -3 points, although it's a bit risky given the possibility for multiple interceptions by Sanchez against a ball hawking Bills' secondary. The Jets have a 54.3% chance to cover based on the historical performance of my math model, so I'll lean with New York minus the points.
SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
NY Jets -3 Buffalo 37 (Toronto)
Jets dominated Carolina from the line of scrimmage in their 17-6 win last week although all of their scores came on either interception returns or short drives due to Carolina turnovers. They out rushed Carolina 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed them 6.9yps to 2.8yps and out gained them overall, 4.7yppl to 2.9yppl. Buffalo out scored Miami 24-0 in the fourth quarter on their way to a 31-14 victory. The game was much closer than the final score as it was tied with less than four minutes to go and had a 56 yard field goal not been made by Buffalo, with the game tied, Miami would have received the ball with great field position to drive for the game winning field goal. Instead, the field goal was good, and Miami fell apart trying to come back. Buffalo out rushed Miami 5.2ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed them 6.5yps to 5.1yps and out gained them overall, 5.9yppl to 4.6yppl. For the season the Jets average 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Buffalo averages 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, just 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. But, since firing Dick Jauron, Buffalo has been much better on offense and defense. They have averaged 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr and allowed 3.6ypr against 4.7ypr in their last two games. They also have averaged 7.6yps against 6.8yps and allowed 5.8yps against 5.6yps. The full season body of work is a much better indicator but because of the coaching change, there could be some validity to their last two games. Assuming the full season stats, the Jets qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 554-421-30 and 461-303-21. Numbers favor the Jets by four points and predict about 32 points. If I just use Buffalo’s last two games, numbers would be closer to a pick ‘em and still predict about 32 points. I would like to make the Jets a best bet here and they did dominate Buffalo in their first game but turned the ball over too much. I will pass simply because of the work Buffalo has done the last few weeks. If this line were closer to a pick ‘em, I would more willing to play the Jets. For now, just a lean their way. NY JETS 17 BUFFALO 13
Rated Picks
Tennessee St: -1 2 Units
Samford: -11.5 5 Units
Buffalo Bills: +3 3 Units
Boston Celtics: +1.5 2 Units
The Duke's Sports
Citadel (+1) for 1.5 Units
The Citadel covered 4 straight in this series and should deliver here. Davidson is a mere shell of what they were the past few years with Curry filling the net consistently. Now, the Wildcats don't have that legitimate scorer and the on court veteran leadership; as a result, they're 1-5 SU. And defensively, they're allowing 71 ppg which should open the door for Citadel's Wells to work his magic. The Bulldogs are on a sweet 20-6 ATS run and 9-2 ATS as a home dog. The Wildcats, however, are just 1-7 ATS vs team above .500. Citadel the call
Joe D'Amico
Oregon State at Oregon
Pick: Oregon State +10
These are two very similar teams. Oregon State is 4-1 ATS on the road, they average 32.4 PPG on offense, and 22.2 PPG on defense. Oregon is 5-1 ATS at home, they average 37.7 PPG, and give up 22.7 PPG. Being in the same conference, they both play the same teams and both fare very similar against them. I feel that OSU QB Sam Canfield has a better arm than his counterpart Jeremiah Masoli. Canfield racked up 2805 YP, 19 TD's, and a completion rate of 70.4%. Compare that to Masoli's numbers of 1865 YP, 14 TD's, and a completion rate of 58.3%. Over the L10 meetings, these two teams have split 5 games apiece both SU and ATS. Oregon State RB Rodgers can control the clock (and keep the Oregon offense off the field) while QB Canfield fires downfield. This game will come down to who ever scores last and be settled by a TD or less. The Beaver's are 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. teams with a winning record, 5-0 ATS their L5 as a road 'dog of 3 1/2- 10 points, 13-3 ATS their L16 games following a bye week, and 22-8 ATS their L30 overall. OSU covers.
Maximus Report
LOCKS
TAKE EASTERN ILLINOIS Panthers +1 ½ vs Tennessee State
EVALUATION: The Tennessee State Tigers come into this game with a 1-6 SU mark, and have only had 3 rated games in which they are 1-2 ATS. They are only averaging 62.5 pts a game, and have been getting beat by an average of over 12 points a game. The Tigers are not very good at taking care of the ball and have avg’d 8 more turnovers a game than the Panthers, and they have 4 less assists per game also, their 1-2 home record does not bode well for the Tigers either, and have been averaging a very weak 38.6% shooting percentage, while allowing opponents a whopping 51.3% shooting percentage. The preseason prediction of the Tigers finishing 9 out of 10 teams looks like it could become reality. Eastern Illinois is 3-2 SU and have covered the spread in their only rated game. They are averaging 75 points a game and have a some motivation in this contest since the last time they ventured into Tiger territory they were ambushed and lost by 20 points. Their 49.3% shooting percentage is really high, and they try to protect the ball by having 5.2 more assists averaged per game than turnovers. Even without Romain Martin who has not been able to play this year yet, we like the Panthers to open up with Ohio Valley Conference play with a win here.
PROJECTION: EASTERN ILLINOIS 73 TENNESSEE ST. 66
TAKE GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES +11.5 vs College of Charleston Cougars
EVALUATION: College of Charleston enters this contest with 1-3 SU record, and have been scoring 67 points a game. They have been getting beat by an average of 5 ½ points a game, and that includes a 17 point loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. Their 41.7% shooting percentage is respectable, but they turn the ball over 2 extra times a game avg. over assists, the key stat we don’t like in this game is that they have they second worst rebounds allowed in the league at 45.3 per game. Georgia Southern is 3-4 and have been averaging 77.86 points a game, and have a really hard early season so far with losses coming by the way of a very good Florida Gator team, Valparaiso, and Jacksonville St. The Eagles have been putting up over 80 points a game in their last 3 games and have won 2 of those 3 games only dropping the contest to Valparaiso. The key for the Eagles is their shooting percentage, in the games they scored over 80 they have an avg. over 48.5% shooting percentage, and the College of Charleston allows opponents to shoot 44.8%, so we think this is a good thing for the Eagles.
PROJECTION: Georgia Southern 76 College of Charleston 75
SOLIDS:______________________Projections
FAIRFIELD -15 vsMarist_________________________Fairfield 79-56
IDAHO PKvs CS Northridge______________________Idaho 76-71
ELON +13 vs Samford __________________________Samford 65-62
SE MISSOURI ST. +15 1/2 vs Austin Peay___________Austin Peay 70-61
OVER/UNDER
Washington/Texas Tech UNDER 155 ½__________________141
Princeton/Rutgers OVER 117_______________________131
MONEYLINE
Baylor +285 _________________________Baylor 68-66
Furman +370_________________________Furman 72-68
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Oregon state
The Boooj
15 units on Oregon State (+9.5) over Oregon
Craig Davis
30 Dime New York Jets
10 Dime Oregon State
PowerPlayWins
Oregon -9.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Denver Nuggets -9
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home side:
Miami won 96-88 on Nov. 6 to end an eight-game skid in the series despite Carmello Anthony outscoring Dwayne Wade 30-22. It was Denver’s first loss after a 5-0 start.
Wade helped the Heat get back on track Tuesday in the opener of a four-game road trip. Following back-to-back home losses, Miami beat Portland 107-100 as Wade had 22 points and a season-high 12 assists; however I expect a "letdown" this evening.
Miami is a poor 2-8 ATS its last ten overall.
On the other side of the court: Denver looks to remain undefeated at home against the Heat since they drafted Anthony and avenge last month’s loss.
Seven Nuggets scored in double figures Tuesday as Denver posted its highest-scoring game of the season. Unlike in Sunday’s loss in which the Nuggets blew a 17-point lead, they were able to build on a 69-55 advantage at the half, taking a 23-point advantage into the fourth quarter.
Keep in mind that Denver is 4-2 ATS its last six overall, 14-5 ATS its last 19 at home and 6-2 ATS its last eight vs. Miami.
Bottom line: Because of all the above reasons, but mainly because of the "revenge" factor, look for DENVER to improve to 10-7 ATS when playing the roll of favorite and for Miami to fall to 3-5 ATS its last eight when playing against a team with a winning record.
*8* NUGGETS
Marc Lawrence
Princeton
The Tigers take on the Scarlet Knights Thursday night with revenge on their minds from a loss suffered against Rutgers. Princeton is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on this court in this series, which coincides with the success of the visiting team in this series (11-2 ATS last 13 games). With the Knights 2-8 ATS as an Ivy League host, including 0-4 ATS versus an opponent off a loss, we'll grab the points with the Tigers here this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Princeton
Bob Balfe
Oregon State +9.5
The road team has won the civil war in the past few years and this year both teams are evenly talented. Oregon has a great rushing game while Oregon State has a great passing game. On defense Oregon has a good pass defense and Oregon State has a good run defense. Something has to give tonight. The only advantage is home field and this series has proven that trend does not mean much. This line is over inflated. Both teams have done good at protecting the ball over the past few weeks and this game is going to come down to who wants it more. Look for a close game coming down to the last drive. The winner takes all the marbles in the PAC 10. Take Oregon State and the points.