Sixth Sense
Opinion
Indianapolis -3 TENNESSEE 45
Indianapolis dropped their second consecutive home game in a row last week to Dallas, 38-35 as they fell behind early and then forced OT but a costly Manning turnover in OT did them in. They were out rushed badly, 4.7ypr to 2.4ypr and 217 to 40. They did out pass Dallas, 7.6yps to 5.4yps and out gained them overall, 6.2yppl to 5.0yppl. But, the yppl numbers are skewed because Dallas ran the ball 29 more times while Indy threw the ball 20 more times. Tennessee disappointed badly at home as well, dropping a 17-6 decision to Jacksonville, in a game they were never really in. Tennessee was out rushed 4.9ypr to 4.1ypr (258 to 57), out passed 6.0yps to 4.9yps and out gained overall, 5.2yppl to 4.7yppl.
Indianapolis averages 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 6.6yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.0yps against 6.7yps and 5.4yppl against 5.7yppl. Tennessee averages 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.8yps against 6.6yps and 5.1yppl against 5.6yppl.
Tennessee qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 461-319-21 and 487-313-21. Numbers actually favor Tennessee by about three points and predict about 42 points. Indianapolis is really banged up and I have gone against them in four of their last five games. Tennessee has lost five games in a row and is really struggling to score on offense right now. The value and situations clearly favor Tennessee. But, Indy recent losses have been to good teams (Philadelphia, New England, San Diego and the good Dallas version), while Tennessee’s struggles have been against Jacksonville, Houston, Washington, Miami and San Diego. It’s a bit of a step down in class for Indy in this game and because of that (along with Kerry Collins really not playing well – not that Manning is playing well), I can only lean towards Tennessee but can’t make it a best bet. TENNESSEE 21 INDIANAPOLIS 20
Seabass
200* Steam Tennessee
Rocky Sheridan
5* Colts -3
5* Temple +2
5* Xavier ML -115
Ben Burns
7* Buffalo -132
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Even though they've gotten off to a mediocre start this season, I have a lot of respect for the Sharks. In fact, I feel that they're one of the stronger teams in the league. That doesn't mean that I won't play against them though, if the situation is favorable to do so. I believe that's the case here.
While the Sabres had last night off, the Sharks were busy playing at Philadelphia. That game was extremely "hard fought," as the Sharks were forced to battle back from a deficit and than had to play in OT. The fact that they won that game, right after they'd earned a huge "revenge" win vs. the Wings on Tuesday night, could easily have them in "letdown" mode here. That's particularly true, given that this is their final leg of a 5-game road trip and that they return to San Jose after this, for another game vs. Chicago, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Off those big games, playing their third game in four nights and thinking about returning home for the Hawks, it should be easy to overlook the Sabres.
Buffalo is better than its record indicates though and has started to play better recently. The Sabres lost their last game. However, that game in OT (thanks to Buffalo taking an unfortunate penalty) and the Sabres had won their previous two games. Both of those were shutout victories, too. In fact, the Sabres have allowed a mere 12 goals their past eight games. Note that Buffalo, a team with an elite goalie, tends to have favorable results, when playing a lot of low-scoring games. In fact, the Sabres are a profitable 17-8 (+7.7) the last 25 times they played, after none of their previous three games finished 'over' the total.
The Sabres beat San Jose here last season and are a profitable 8-1 (+7.4) the last nine times that they were a host in the series. I feel that they've got a great shot at continuing that home ice series dominance here.
Ben Burns
Titans
Titans Under
Sabres
LA Kings
Bob Balfe
Colts / Titans Over
Larry Ness
10* Las Vegas Insider - Xavier
This is NOT the same Butler team from last year or even the past few seasons. Too many key people are gone. Major losses from last year are "the left-too-soon" Hayward (15.5-8.2) plus guard Veasley (9.8-4.3). Mack (15.1-5.4-3.0) is an excellent player on the perimeter but fellow guards Hahn (7.4-2.6 APG) and Nored (2.6) are nothing more than complementary players. The 6-8 Howard (15.6-8.7) is always in danger of getting "two quick fouls" and the 6-11 Smith (7.1-5.4) is a work in progress. The Butler program has been quite special these past few seasons, especially last year when it fell two points short of Duke in the championship game, but let's not forget what Xavier has accomplished, for quite some time now. The winning began with Pete Gillen, followed under the late Skip Prosser, then Thad Matta and Sean Miller. Chris Mack took over last year and another 20-win season ensued (26, to be exact!), as did a third straight Sweet 16 run (just missed a third Elite 8 trip since 2004). Crawford's (20.5) scoring will be missed and the 6-9 Love (11.8-8.0) gave the school four solid years but there's plenty of talent, if not depth, left on this Cincinnati-based school. Holloway (24.0-4.1-4.3) looks as if he's going to have an All-American-like season and is joined by guards Lyons (14.1-3.4-3.6) and Jackson (7.6) in the starting lineup. The 6-8 McLean (11.0-10.2) and the 7-0 Frease (10.4-7.6) start up front with the 6-9 Robinson (5.6-3.9) coming off the bench. Xavier got nipped 69-68 at Butler last season but 'turnabout" is fair play this year here at home, where Xavier's 27-game home winning streak represents the third-longest active streak in the nation. The price is right" at around pick'em, so let's go with the Musketeers.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* NJ Nets +10.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
The Nets are 11-11 ATS, including 6-6 ATS on the road; on the 7th they lost in Atlanta 116-101, unable to cover as 6 1/2-point dogs.
Important to note that the Nets are already 2-1 ATS as a road dog of 9 1/2 to 12-points, and over the last 2-seasons they are 14-4 ATS in the same position.
On the other side of the court: The Mavericks are 12-7-2 ATS, including just 4-6-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd; on the 7th they beat Golden State in front of the home town crowd 105-100, unable to cover as 8 1/2-point favorites.
This is a spot that Dallas has struggled in; it's already just 5-7 ATS when playing the roll of favorite; over the last 2-seasons it's 60-71 ATS in the same position.
Also surprisingly, the Mav's are just 3-4 ATS this year when playing against a team with a losing record; it's just 35-44 ATS over the last 2-seasons in the same position.
Bottom line: There are a couple of streaks on the line tonight; Dallas is on a 10-game win streak right now; New Jersey has lost 10-straight at American Airlines Center.
The Nets, with head coach Avery Johnson making his return to Dallas, are more importantly on a 5-game overall losing streak at the moment and are desperate for a victory and to stop its 8-game overall road slide.
I believe this is a great "situation" for a hungry Nets team that can catch a somewhat complacent home side off guard just enough to sneak in through the back door; 6* play on the NEW JERSEY NETS!
Gregg Price
5* Tennessee
We have been fading Indy, except when they are a dog, because like we said when we took Dallas, Indy is banged up and suffering from the SB hangover. Now Tenn isn't in much better shape, and to win this game we need Chris Johnson to run wild, and Kerry Collins to play well. We said Dallas needed to run the ball, and they did for 217 yards. Now Tenn needs to follow the same game plan. We can't depend on Manning throwing 3 picks, I highly doubt that is going to happen again. Lets take Tenn to the bank on this one.