Anthony Redd
80 Dime Middle Tennessee St
40 Dime 1st Half Middle Tennessee St
Street Rosenthal
*300 Middle Tennessee St -2
Dr. Bob
Middle Tenn (-2.0) 23 Miami Ohio 20 (at GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Middle Tennessee State was a major disappointment this season, as many expected the Blue Raiders to win the Sun Belt Conference (they finished 3rd at 5-3). Miami-Ohio, meanwhile, was a surprise winner of the MAC East and then scored a huge upset win a win as a 17 ½ point dog in the MAC Championship game. Teams that under-performed in the regular season generally perform at a higher level in their bowl game and the Blue Raiders also apply to a very good 43-9 ATS statistical match-up indicator as long as they don’t become a favorite of 3 points or more (the angle starts to flatten out for favorites of 3 or more). I was considering playing Middle Tennessee State when they were an underdog, but the Blue Raiders are now favored by a couple of points and I think the move was unjustified mathematically.
Middle Tennessee State started their season with star quarterback Dwight Dasher sidelined while serving a 4 game suspension. Dasher made a splash with a great performance in last year’s bowl game win over Southern Miss, as he ran for 211 yards on 25 running plays. Dasher was a sub-par passer last season (6.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback and he was worse this season, averaging just 5.3 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback. Dasher also threw 14 interceptions in just 8 games and has thrown 28 picks in 21 games the last two seasons, which is a horrible rate. The big problem was the Dasher’s running also wasn’t as good, as he averaged 5.1 yards per rushing play this season (556 yards on 108 runs, not including sacks) after running for 1296 yards at 6.3 yprp last season. Middle Tennessee State’s offense was 1.0 yards per play worse than average this season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and the Blue Raiders were 1.1 yppl worse than average with Dasher at quarterback. Dasher did throw the ball better in the last two games of the season, but there is not enough evidence to suggest that was anything more than random variance.
Miami-Ohio’s defense allowed only 23.4 points per game and they held Northern Illinois’ potent attack to just 21 points in the MAC Championship game. However, the Redhawks allowed 5.5 yppl for the season against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense and they were 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively after losing top defender LB Ryan Kennedy early in week 4. Kennedy may actually play in this game, as he’s been upgraded to questionable, but I’ll assume he’s out or won’t be 100% if he does play. Miami did a good job of shutting down mediocre and bad offensive teams this season and the Redhawks have a 0.6 yppl advantage over Middle Tennessee’s bad offense. My math model projects just 328 total yards at 5.0 yppl for the Blue Raiders in this game.
Miami-Ohio’s offense was 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but starting quarterback Zac Dysert was lost for the season late in the year and backup Austin Boucher hasn’t been as good. Dysert averaged 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB). Boucher averaged 5.8 yppp in his 3 starts (I did not include his good stats in garbage time against the backups of Missouri and Cincy), but he faced teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB. Boucher did only throw 1 interception in 3 starts while Dysert threw 14 picks in 10 games so overall Boucher played about as well. The rushing attack really picked up late in the year, but that could be nothing more than random, as top back Thomas Merriweather’s 5.5 ypr average this season was enhanced by a 96 yard run against Temple in week 13 and his career average in 4 seasons is just 4.2 ypr. Merriweather should run pretty well in this game against a MTSU defense that doesn’t defend the run well (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense), but the Blue Raiders are pretty good against the pass (5.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.5 yppp against an average team) and my math model projects just 4.9 yppp for Boucher in this game. Overall, my model projects 342 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Redhawks.
Miami should have an edge in turnovers, but Middle Tennessee has better special teams. Overall, the math favors Miami-Ohio by 1 point in what should be a low scoring game in which both defensive units have an edge over the opposing offense. In fact, my model predicts just 44 total points in this game and a compensated points model predicts even less than that. Miami-Ohio’s games averaged just 43.9 points and Middle Tennessee’s games were about average in scoring at 51.3 points (52.2 is the national average), so a prediction of 44 points certainly seems reasonable and I can’t justify the posted total of 48 points in this game. Despite the lack of line value I’ll lean slightly with Middle Tennessee State at -2 ½ or less based on that 43-9 ATS match-up indicator. I’ll also lean Under 46 points or higher and I think the Under is a better percentage play than the side in this game.
DOUBLE DRAGON
TOP - MID TENNESSEE ST +1
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Mid Tennessee St -2
Scott Ferrall
Miami Ohio +2
RAS
1.5 Units Loyola Marymount +9.5
1 Unit Pepperdine -7.5
1 Unit San Jose State +3
1 Unit Sacramento State +7
Chip Chirimbes
Villanova at South Florida
Pick: South Florida +7
It appears that no matter which Big East match-up you are discussing one of the opponents is ranked in the top 25 and once again this is true where lowly South Florida (6-9, #6-6-1) will host No. 7 Villanova (12-1, #4-5-1). Last year the Wildcats destroyed the Bulls at home as a 13-point favorite winning 74-49. South Florida has upgraded their defensive play holding their opponents to 38% shooting while going 5-1 as a home dog in their last six. Take SOUTH FLORIDA!
BIG AL
Middle Tennessee St
Teddy Covers
S. Alabama
Northwestern
Rob Veno
Bluechip - Mid Tenn State
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Penguins/Canadiens Under 5.5
Wunderdog
Phoenix +125
Buffalo +150
Ben Burns
Edmonton
Colorado
Buffalo/San Jose Under 5.5
Chris Jordan
200♦ St Marys
200♦ Pacific
200♦ Pepperdine
200♦ Oregon St
200♦ Arizona