The Prez
7* Mid Tenn St / Miami Oh Over
Tim Trushell
Mid Tennessee St
DAVID MALINSKY
4* DETROIT over LOYOLA-CHICAGO
Last week we started buying shares of Detroit as Horizon League play opened, and while it was only a 1-1 split there was plenty to like. Now the fact that the Titans are off of a Saturday O.T. loss to UW-Milwaukee helps to keep the value where we want it, and we are in play again.
What went wrong on Saturday? Not much. Detroit shot over 50 percent from the field once again, topping that plateau in all three conference games to date (a sizzling 56.1 percent), which shows the balance and depth the offense brings. The Titans also won the boards 33-30. But UWM knocked down 16 triples, and you will not win games when the opposition does that. And after seeing the Panthers come right back and rout Butler two nights later, there isn’t much negative to take away from the Saturday result. Now a team that went 4-2 ATS as Horizon road dogs LY, and is already 4-1-1 ATS as visiting underdogs vs. a tough early schedule this season (seven true road games, including places like Syracuse, New Mexico and Mississippi State), brings the ideal ingredients to compete well on the road again – they are 2nd in the conference in FG percentage defense and rebounding margin, and 1st in blocked shots.
Among those successes LY was a 59-42 rout as +1 on this court, and the Titans also whipped Loyola 83-63 as -8.5 at home. That tells us much about tonight’s value point. Despite the fact that Detroit is much improved in adding Ray McCallum Jr. and Chris Blake, while the Ramblers bring virtually the same cast at the top of the rotation that went 5-13 in league play LY, and are just 1-3 so far this season, the markets are shifting the line in Loyola’s favor. With the Gentile Center bringing no major court advantage (the Ramblers are 3-11 SU in league play here the past two seasons, with one of the wins in O.T. and another by a single point, and 6-17 SU the last three campaigns), Detroit is absolutely in play to win the whole game, with the points being offered a comfortable cushion.
The Duke's Sports
Miami Ohio (+2') for 2.5 Units
We normally don't like radical change anytime of the year involving key players or coaches however, in this instance, losing Haywood should not hurt the Redhawks, which are equipped with a very good coaching staff. Guidry (interim coach) should manage the game well enough here. Miami closed the season strong, established a running game in the process from 3.4 ypc to 5.6 down the stretch as RB Merriweather found his holes. What we also liked about Miami OH over their last five games is the fact that they not only won on the scoreboard but they won on the stat sheet in rushing, passing and total yards. On the other hand, we realize MTSU won their bowl game last year behind QB Dasher; however, his time off (suspension) hurt his rhythm with the offense for the Blue Raiders were turnover laden (33 - tied for worst in nation). We'll look for the aggressive Redhawks' defense, which allowed just 13 ppg over their last 3 games, to continue their strong play and further disrupt Dasher and company. Miami Ohio the call.
Tony George
Denver / Sacramento Under 208
Lots of action on the Over, but Denver very thin in depth here, Martin, Lawson and JR Smith all out for this one or very very limited. You think of Denver and you think of games eclipsing 220 points all the time, but that is at home, Denver just Over in 5 out of their last 16 road games. Both teams defense allowing around 98 ppg as of late and my power rating for this is 201 which is a 7 point overlay. Denver a different animal on the road, and their backcourt will be playing tons of minutes and I do not see them scoring a ton of points in a shootout here. The Kings average just 94 ppg on the season, I like this one to be a tight one and for the total to stay Under the number tonight. Play 1 Unit on the Under.
Evan Altemus
1* Louisiana Tech -1
Louisiana Tech does have some bad losses this season, but I feel that they aren't as bad as some of those losses would indicate. The Bulldogs actually have a winning ATS record this season despite those losses. Fresno State meanwhile has a better overall performance this season, but they are only 1-3-1 ATS on the road. That is troubling for Fresno because this is the longest road trip they have taken this season by a significant amount. The home team in this series has also won the last six games against each other, showing the significance of home court advantage due to the travel distance. Also, Louisiana Tech also has better offensive, defensive, and rebounding statistics than Fresno State. Look for them to get the home win.
Larry Ness
8* Hawaii -6.5
Hawaii has struggled the last three seasons under Bob Nash and new head coach Gib Arnold took over a team which went just 10-20 last year. Some good news was that the 6-9 Amis was expected to return from a foot injury and after four games (all wins), Amis was averaging 15.8 PPG and 6.8 RPG. However, his foot troubles came back and he hasn't played since. There is talk he will return but the Rainbows have played well without him. The 6-6 Zane Johnson, an Arizona transfer, has been terrific (14.8-3.6) plus freshman guard Barnes (9.1) have both paid dividends in the early going. Thompson (12.5-3.5 APG), a returning senior, joins them and gives the Warriors an excellent perimeter game. Even without Amis., the 6-7 Thomas (11.7-5.5) and the 6-10 Joaquim (6.9-7.2) have been able to fill the void. Hawaii is 8-1 SU at home, losing only to Florida St. Idaho is fairly young this year and Geiger, a junior guard, is the team's leading scorer at just 10.5 PPG (seven players average between 5.1 and 10.5 PPG). The frontcourt features the 6-8 Toledo (9.9-5.3), the 6-10 Barone (9.3-5.4) and the 6-6 Wiley (8.1-5.5) but will be severely tested by a Hawaii team outrebounding opponents by just over 10 per game even with Amis missing significant time. It's NOT a good sign that Idaho's leading rebounder (5.8) is 6-4 guard Henderson. Throw in a little "double-revenge" motive from last year and we get a late-night blowout!
Lenny Del Genio
20* Troy +7
Plenty of value here on the road team in a battle of 2-11 squads. Leading scorer Vernon Taylor (15.3 ppg) returns to the Troy lineup and just in time as they come off a humiliating 80-39 loss to Utah State last time out. No one will want to touch them after that, but we do as the Trojans scoring output already exceeded that of ULL. Troy scored 100+ pts in an earlier win over Western Michigan and had 77 in a loss to a good Florida Atlantic team in the SBC opener. Both of ULL's wins were against non-lined teams and they are 1-9 ATS off BB SU losses. They are just 10-21 ATS their last 31 lined games overall. They have not been favored all season. Troy is our 20* Sun Belt Game of the Month.
PPP
5% Middle Tennessee St
Texas Sportswire
4* Xavier
3* Loyola Marymount