Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
They call Alabama the Crimson Tide, call me Deacon Blues! Ahhh, just wanted to work in a little Steely for ya there.
Willing to lay a few points with the favorite, as I think ALL AROUND, Alabama is the better team, and the fact Mark Ingram gives Bama the decided edge in the running department will make a difference before this game is concluded.
Both teams feature dominant defenses, but playing in the SEC, the Tide faced the much tougher schedule. Let's face it, the Big 12 definitely was not up to par this season competition-wise, which is going to hurt the Horns tonight.
The way Texas struggled to move the ball against Nebraska is a definite red-flag to me going up against the best defense in the land, and you can assume Colt McCoy won't be doing much business against this smash-mouth stop unit.
The Tide were favored by single-digits 3 times this year, and they covered ALL 3, beating bowl teams in Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, and LSU.
This is Saban's year. Roll Tide!
10 DIMER - TEXAS-ALABAMA UNDER
After watching both defenses numerous times this season, it seems clear to me that this game is not going to be a shoot-out.
I feel the total on this game is right around where it should be, as I can see this one getting quite close to heading Over, but I do feel there will be enough defense flexed by both sides that will keep this title game Under the posted total.
Texas comes into this game having played low in 6 of their last 8 games played at a neutral site, while Alabama is on a 5-2-1 Under run their last 8 games played.
For the season, Alabama has held 10 of their 13 foes to 15 points or less, while Texas held 9 of their 13 opponents to 14 points or less.
Points at a premium tonight boys, play the UNDER.
Chris Jordan
600♦ ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
I will get to your analysis by 2 p.m. eastern. But for those of you who have been subscribing to Chris Jordan for the past half-dozen years, I want you to think back to when I delivered an easy winner on LSU against Oklahoma when Nick Saban was coaching the Tigers.
Get ready for the same type of reasoning, as Saban is a mastermind with his blitzing schemes and I am counting on the defensive pressure to get it done.
NOTE - With this line tonight, you're going to be seeing it anywhere from 4 to 4-1/2; right now the majority of lines I am seeing is at 4, but in the event you do have a 4-1/2 with your book, absolutely buy the half-point and lay the flat number.
Why do this with a game I am so confident is going to win by at least a touchdown? Cause this is still G-A-M-B-L-I-N-G, and anything can happen - just as you saw last night. I cannot predict injuries or late calls by game officials - you saw them work in my favor last night.
So with this line, FOR SURE we're buying down to -4. And when you see the line drop to 3-1/2 purchase it down to -3 ... why not? Let's insure this game even further for all the same reasons!!!
Brandon Lang
100 DIME - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE MONEY LINE PLAY
25 DIME - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 1ST HALF PLAY
25 DIME - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS
I just don't see Alabama losing this game tonight.
And because I don't see them losing, I can't pass up this great money line price in a big game like this.
While watching Florida just destroy Cincinnati, and Tebow have the game of his career, I just kept saying to myself Alabama held this team to 13 points.
What was even more impressive was the offensive game plan in which Nick Saban and his staff came up with in attacking the Florida defense, a defense I feel is better than this Texas defense.
The Crimson Tide had 251 yards rushing versus Florida and 239 yards passing for 490 yards total offense and that was against the 4th best defense in the country backed by SEC speed. Texas comes in #3.
You look at Alabama's run through the SEC and you will see the most points they gave up in a game were 24 the first game of the year to Virginia Tech and they allowed that while giving up only 155 yards total offense.
Most of the Hokies points were set up as a result of special teams.
In every single game this year Alabama's defense showed up and played hard. Played with intensity. Played as if their lives depended on it and that is a credit to Saban and his staff. They have taken nothing for granted all year.
The most yards 'Bama gave up this entire year was 341 to Tennessee, 335 to Florida, 332 to Auburn and 302 to Kentucky. They only allowed three teams to get over a 100 yards rushing and only 4 teams to throw over 200 yards.
They are a model of consistency all year long. I can't say the same about Texas and the only evidence I need is the last 2 games of the year.
On the road at Texas A&M, a team that was completely manhandled and dominated by SEC conference Georgia 44-20, the Longhorns gave up 190 yards rushing, 342 yards pass for a total of 532 yards.
From that game they went into the Big 12 Championship Game, and forgot how to play offense against Nebraska being held to 18 yards rushing and 184 passing for 202 total yards while allowing 9 sacks.
You are supposed to be peaking at the end of the year, not allowing the Texas A&M's of the world to shred you, nor struggle to muster up 13 points and 200 yards offense in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Folks, this isn't a great Texas offensive line. It's average at best as evidenced by the fact Texas has had rushing games of 46 yards at home to Colorado, 99 on the road at Oklahoma State, 67 at home to Central Florida.
In there two games versus defenses that you would say are comparable to Alabama are Oklahoma and Nebraska and I just find it a bit ironic both of those defenses held Texas to 13 points.
For me I just can't get past the 202 total yards Texas had against Nebraska last game of the year and just how badly they looked all game long offensively rushing, passing and protecting the quarterback.
The defense Texas will see tonight and the speed in which it occupies the field with is faster than Nebraska and I don't care how much time you have to prepare for it, your practice squad can simulate SEC speed in a million years.
If Alabama plays with the same intensity it did against Florida, and I have every reason to believe they will, there isn't a single ounce of doubt in my mind they win this game by double digits.
I saw all I needed to see in 'Bama's dominant win over Florida, and the Texas struggles offensively versus Nebraska and Oklahoma while allowing a young A&M team to put up 39 points on them to put me on the Crimson Tide tonight.
I keep hearing about Texas being the # 1 rush defense in the country but hell, Missouri had the 12th ranked rush defense and Navy ran for close to 400 yards on them.
So trust me folks, you can have all the great defensive statistics you want playing in the Big 12 but let's not confuse Big 12 speed with the SEC because it's like comparing apples to oranges. It really is.
These two conferences have met this bowl season and you have all you need to know to validate the above point.
Georgia completely outclassed Texas A&M 44-20 and Ole Miss outclassed Oklahoma State 21-7 and you could see the speed difference all over the field.
I dare use the word overrated, but in this case I feel Texas is highly overrated and as I said above, I just can't get past the lack of intensity in which Texas played with against Texas A&M.
If that had been Alabama, the young Aggies wouldn't have sniffed 20 points let alone 39.
My last point is this. Greg McElroy found himself in the last drive against Auburn. He found his confidence. He became the leader his teammates have been waiting for him to become all year long and you saw his maturity in the SEC Championship Game.
I expect Heisman Trophy winner Ingram to have success running the football, get McElroy in play action and for Alabama to do what it has done all year long when laying a single digit number and that is cover it.
Last year they covered all 3 single digit numbers and this year they laid 6 1/2 to Virginia Tech and won by 10, they laid -4 at Ole Miss and won 22-3 and laid 7 1/2 to LSU and won by 9 making it 6 in a row.
I'm not taking anything away from Mack Brown, but you can't give Nick Saban time to prepare for you with the personnel he has because he will own you as he proved with his gameplan versus Florida.
With the same amount of time to prepare Mack Brown and his staff failed miserably against Nebraska offensively as they were unprepared and were dominated and were lucky to win the football game.
I am going to war with the better team, with the better coach, with the better defense, with the better special teams, with the Heisman Trophy winner, and flat out the better all around team.
You don't beat the defending National Champions on a neutral field as dominantly as you did and go on to lose the National Championship game to Texas. You just don't.
And I will live or die with the SEC over the Big 12 any day of the week.
Alabama Crimson Tide across the board for me tonight in the first half, for the game and on the money line.
FREE SELECTION - TEXAS-ALABAMA UNDER
We don't post vegas runner and other exclusive cappers from that site repski but thanks for the help.
Sportsbetsnow
4 units Texas +4.5
John Fina
Alabama
Seabass
300* Texas +4
100* Texas ML
100* Under
KING CREOLE
Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks
3* UNDER the TOTAL
Looks like the OU line is going up in this game. It opened at 197. At last look, it was up to 199 or 200. Let it “top out”… and then pounce on the UNDER. These two teams have already played each other 3 times this season. The 2 games in December went “UNDER the Total”. The game played back in late October DID indeed go ‘OVER’… but ONLY because the game went into overtime.
Tonight’s play is ‘System-based’. And our first area of query begins with the Day of the Week.
So far in the 09/10 season, NBA games played on a THURSDAY have gone 8-17-1 O/U. And since December 1st, home FAVORITES on a Thursday (NY) have gone 1-8 O/U.
New York Has won two games in a row. The most recent win was a whopping 132-89 outcome over the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night. So the Knicks come in with 3 days rest. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are playing their best ball of the season as they have reeled off 3 wins in a row of their own. The most recent was Tuesday night, when they beat the Bulls (but did not cover the pointspread).
1-6 O/U this season: All non-division NBA teams playing off a SU win of 30 or MORE points (NY).
3-10 O/U this season: all NBA teams who scored 130 or MORE points in their last game (NY).
0-5 O/U since Dec. 1st: all NBA home favorites of 3 points playing off a SU win BUT an ATS loss (CHAR). NON-division teams have gone 2-10 O/U.
When these two divisions hook up against each other, we can expect a LOW-scoring outcome… based on the site and the pointspread.
1-7 O/U this season: All ATLANTIC division home favs of > 3 points (NY)…. Taking on an opponent from the SOUTHEAST division (CHAR).
You may be concerned that the Knicks have reeled off 3 “OVERS” in a row… and the Bobcats also went “OVER” in their last game. Don’t be…. That just increases the VALUE of tonight’s OU line.
3-13 O/U since Dec. 1st: All NBA home teams playing off 3 or more “OVERS” in a row (NY)… versus an opponent that ALSO went “OVER” in their last game (CHAR). If the host is favored by < 8 points, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U.
Steve Duemig
25 Dime - Texas
Obviously to be a good handicapper or any kind of handicapper you have to have a good set of power ratings that you can rely on when it comes to spotting edges in the line. If you don't have them or at the very least have access to them, you are wasting your time and money. It is key that one knows, especially when the lines come out where the edge is and which way the handicapper thinks the line will move and make sure they get the best possible number. Sharp sports betting is about one thing. GETTING THE BEST NUMBER. The worst thing one can do is bet into a bad line. Sometimes on game day lines change by the time you get my picks. I can assure you that I do the very best that I can to anticipate those line moves in order for us to have the best possible chance of winning. I will give you my best example of this. In the Sugar Bowl, I played the Gators on the come out line of -10. It never got lower than that so I got the best possible number, and I knew it was never going down either. The line eventually went up to 13. On game day I gave out the Gators as my pick to you even though I knew the line was already bet up. But it still had tons of value and that is why I gave it out to you. If you remember though I stated that the only reason I was not making that game my highest rated game ever was because on game day I did not really know how high the line would actually go. I stated that if it did go to 14 or above you would really have to make a choice based on your own comfort levels. Well we all know the outcome of that massacre so we did the right thing. That brings us to this game tonight, the BCS National Championship.
There is a reason that I gave you the aforementioned background information because we are going to use it in this game. We have produced a profit for you here throughout the football season over the past year. One of the main reasons is that in case you haven't noticed we have used some very strict money management during the campaign. I put a lot of thought into how I want to weight these games. Certainly there are games that I feel we have a bigger edge than others and that's why we wager and take advantage of that edge. I could easily blow out the ratings with the end of the college season but i would never do that unless I thought we had that big of an edge. We have one but it is not gigantic so we will not bet gigantic. Hopefully you understand this. No one game is more important than any other game.
Ok here we go. I mentioned above the power ratings. Here is where we have our edge, and where we can weed out all the hype. Believe me, by the time this game kicks off, your head will be spinning with all the hype. We have to weed all of that out, and we will do that. Over the course of the college season we saw Florida ranked # 1 the entire year up until the SEC Championship game. Who was number two all season long? Don't know do you? You weren't paying attention? Let me give you a hint. It wasn't Alabama. We AREN"T talking about rankings here, we are talking about RATINGS. It wasn't Alabama by a mile folks. It was Texas, by a wide margin. we have our edge now. Why? Because of perception!! The perception of the public who will come out of the woodwork to bet this game. What did they see? They saw Alabama come out and punch the Gators right in the mouth and totally dethrone Tim Tebow and the National Champion Gators in the SEC Championship game. They ran the ball up and down the field on the Gators, largely on the back of the Heisman Trophy winning Mark Ingram. Heisman Jinx?? I wish it were that simple. The Gators could have totally altered the beginning of that game and perhaps the entire game if Jeff Demps had call the pass in the flat on the Gator's first series. He had the entire sidline up the field open to him and most likely an early back breaking TD. He dropped it and the rest is history. The Bama D knew they weren't getting beat deep with the passing game so they left eveything in front of them and make Tebow work harder and harder. There were several occasions however that the Gators simply failed to make a play here or there that was available to them. We know the rest. what I am getting at is a game is never as bad or good as it looked. It was ONE game. What about them needing two blocked kicks to beat TENN or having to go the length of the field for a last minute win over Auburn. Believe me Bama came a helluva lot closer to losing games than either Texas or Florida
Same goes for the Texas-Nebraska Big Twelve Championship game. What did we see? We saw a one man wrecking crew in Suh (no I'm not spelling his first name) for Nebraska. Does Bama have a boy named Suh? Nope. they have a Cody though, but he can't track down McCoy or beat the Texas line like Suh did. So we have eliminated a main game changer. Alabama is very good defensively, But they are not in my opinion as dangerous as Nebraska's. McCoy will have more weapons offensively available to him than the Gators did. They have a run game and they have a good corp of fast WR's. This keeps them two dimensional and a threat to Bama.
Now we have looked at the "perceptions" of each game and they are KEY in handicapping this one. The perception was Bama, Bama, Bama to the upside by beating the Gators. That was a 1 year goal by Bama after getting beat the year before. It was Texas to the negative perception for a narrow victory over a team many thought they would dominate. Now lets go to the all important RATINGS. The rankings we know. Texas stayed at number two but Bama jumped from 3 to 1. No problem yet but here is where we find it. All year long I have had access to the ratings of how Vegas perceives the public to be rating these teams and they have based their spreads many times off of those perceived power ratings of how they think the public will bet. Well, remember how I told you in the beginning how Texas was the #2 rated team and Bama was 3 and I might add by a WIDE margin? Well talk about perception, after those two games all of a sudden Bama was rated #1 and Texas was dropped to #3 with the Gators in the middle!!! Whoa!!!! Are you kidding me? Get this though, Vegas made it a 7 point swing. They added 7 to Bama and subtracted 7 from Texas!!! Holy Crap! What does this all add up to? They are basing this line ALL off the perception of those last two games. No ratings move that muvh off of a single game EVER, unless there is only one game left, and that;s what we have. The wrong team is favored here in my best educated guess!! We can make a case for both teams here but based off the movement of those ratings, Vegas is setting people up for the kill for those that take Bama. We're not taking Bama, we are taking Texas and the points. The line has yo yoed from the opener of Bama -3.5 up to Bama - 6, but it has since worked it's way all the way back to the opener at the time of this post of Bama 3.5. That means there is support for both sides but the % of spread bets still show a wide margin in favor of Bama. I believe that on game day the line will creep back up as the public starts to bet this game after listening to all the HYPE. Keep an eye out and try to wait out the best number on TX if you see it creeping up because our ratings have eliminated the HYPE.
NHL PRO PICKS
Ottawa +184
NY Rangers +141
Florida +129
St. Louis +140
Kyle Bales
10* Bobcats +3.5
10* Penn St. -2
ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
4 on Alabama -4
3 0n the under 46
BOB AKMENS
10* ALABAMA -4
10* ALABAMA / TEXAS UNDER 46
EZWINNERS
** 10 STAR SELECTION **
Date: Thursday, January 7, 2009
Game: Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 7:35PM CST
Risk/Win: $1100 to win $1000
(267) Texas Longhorns +4
(Line from Betjamaica)
** 5 STAR SELECTION **
Date: Thursday, January 7, 2009
Game: Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 7:35PM CST
Risk/Win: $500 to win $800
(267) Texas Longhorns +4
(Line from Betjamaica)
Public perception is that Alabama is the much better team and after beating up on Florida in the SEC championship they will beat this Texas team that barely won the Big 12 championship game rather easily. I don't believe that to be the case. Both of these teams have solid defenses but I give an edge to the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball especially at quarterback. Colt McCoy is a seasoned veteran and can make things happen for the Horns. Greg McElroy has played will for Alabama at quarterback, but he is not a Heisman trophy finalist and can’t carry his team. The Tide do have the Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram at running back, but that has not been a good thing for teams as the team with the Heisman Trophy winner are only 7-21 against the spread the last 28 years. This game will most likely come down to a big play and that big play could very well come on special teams. The Longhorns have a big advantage on special teams where they are the best in the nation and have returned seven kicks for touchdowns this season. The Tide have some dangerous kick returners themselves, but Alabama's kick coverage is cause for concern. The Tide allow over 25 yards per return and have allowed two kicks to be returned for touchdowns this season. We have the makings for a very good game. There was an overreaction by the linesmakers in my opinion with Alabama’s convincing win against the Gators while Texas needed a game winning field goal with one second left to knock off the Huskers. I’ll gladly take the points as I feel that they win this game. Hook 'em Horns!
TEXAS 24 ALABAMA 20
I think the 5* is suppose to be a money play.
Teddy Covers
Mich/PSU Over