Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Long Beach St -2.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on Long Beach State:
UC Riverside won 69-67 in overtime over Long Beach State Saturday night; I expect a rebound tonight.
Casper Ware and Greg Plater led Long Beach State (6-8, 0-1) with 17 points each. T.J. Robinson had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Turnovers made the difference as the 49ers committed 15 miscues that UC Riverside converted for 19 points. The Highlanders committed eight turnovers for eight Long Beach State points; I expect this issue to be addressed for this evenings contest.
It's true that the 49'ers are 1-4 SU their last five, but dating back to last season they are 8-4 ATS their last 12 on the road and are 7-3 ATS their last ten vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the court: UC Davis held off Cal State-Fullerton 67-63 Saturday night; I expect another "letdown" this evening.
Gerard Anderson had 13 points and nine rebounds for the Titans (5-7, 0-1), who lost their seven straight road game.
CS Fullerton is 1-4 SU its last five and always has a tough time at home vs. Long Beach State; 2-6 ATS its last eight vs. the 49'ers in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: The 49'ers matchup well against the Titans at key positions; look for LONG BEACH STATE to improve to 2-1 ATS this year when playing the roll of favorite and for CS Fullerton to fall to 2-4 ATS as an underdog!
7* LONG BEACH ST
Tony George
Alabama -4
While I never like laying 4 points, the physical nature of the Alabama’s running game will the sole difference in this game. Alabama a TD Better. Texas has high talent at skill positions but rely on speed versus brawn. Teams who were physical gave them issues all year, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Tex AM all competed and both NU and OU should have beat them. Oklahoma would have, but lose QB Bradford in the first series of the game, and you all saw the Big 12 championship where NU held them to under 150 yards offense and should have won. Texas played an easy schedule, ALABAMA did not. The pounded Florida which is better than Texas on a neutral site and the physical nature of Alabama’s defense and speed of their linebackers will not allow Colt McCoy much time to throw the ball, nor much running room. Sabin a better coach than Mac Brown as well, Bama battle tested in the tough SEC. Play 1 Unit on Alabama.
Opposite Action Plays
Texas +4
Marc Lawrence
Texas +4
The 2009 college football comes to a close in Pasadena when No. 1 ranked Alabama meets No. 2 Texas in a matchup of undefeated teams playing for all the national championship. Next to TCU, the Tide’s defense ranks No. 2 in the land, holding four foes to season low yards. Heisman Trophy RB Mark Ingram, star WR Julio Jones and SR QB Greg McElroy key the offense. Ingram carries the burden of the Heisman, as these teams are 3-15 SU and 2-16 ATS when facing an opponent that allows less than 17 PPG on the season. This year’s Tide team will attempt to do something no other Alabama team has done in its school history, namely beat a Texas team on the gridiron, where the Longhorns are 7-0-1 SU all-time in this series. From our powerful database we learn that BCS bowl games involving teams that scored 30 or less points in their last game facing an opponent that scored more than 30 points in its last game are 22-7 ATS, including 11-0 SU and ATS if they allow less than 19 PPG on the season and the opponent won 10 or more game during the regular season last year. We also note that the dog in AP No. 1 versus No. 2 games is 19-6 ATS in games since 1985. Finally, two-time Heisman runnerup QB Colt McCoy closes out a spectacular career, sporting a 20-3 SU mark as a starter for Texas. With Texas off its worst game of the season and Alabama off its best, we’ll call for a reversal of fortune here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on Texas.
Bob Balfe
Alabama -4
This is what we all have been waiting for. When you think of Alabama you think of the running game and defense. Texas is known for the great QB in Colt McCoy. The Texas Defense is better than a lot of people give them credit for, but I do not think they are as good as the Bama Defense. The key in this game will be Alabama QB Greg McElroy. Most people do not know McElroy as a household name like McCoy, but he is a very talented QB and best of all he does not turn the ball over with just 4 INT's all season. Alabama crushed Florida and I look for that momentum to carry over to the game tonight. Texas was a second away from not even playing in this game. Alabama has a huge NT on defense in Cody who weights close to 400 pounds and can run just as quick as a linebacker! This game will all about who plays better defense and who turns the ball over less. In my opinion those odds go to Alabama. Roll Tide! Take Alabama -4.
Ron Raymond
Phoenix +150
Keys to selection: When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Total is 5.0 - Last 2 years - playing on Thursday - Coming off vs Northwest division opponent - Allowed 4 or less goals AGAINST in their last game - Coming off 1 over; the Road Dog is 9-6 SU in this spot the L2Y.
Note: The Canucks have the Flames on deck on Saturday in the Double Header of the Hockey Night in Canada broadcast, could be a look a head spot here for Vancouver. Take Phoenix.
Lenny Del Genio
La Salle +5.5
Last year's 73-55 decision at Xavier was totally misleading as the Musketeers held a 36-9 advantage in free throw attempts over the Explorers, which tells us that the score probably should have been even more lopsided than it was, strange as that may seem. We're calling for LaSalle to gain revenge in the rematch now that the venue has changed to Philadelphia. Xavier hasn't been all that impressive thus far, going just 8-5 SU following a loss at Wake Forest on Saturday. Most of their wins have come in games where they were a double-digit favorite. One thing that has to change (i.e. come down) is the Musketeers ridiculous three-point percetage of 41.8%. The time is now that the conference schedule is underway. Looking at the LaSalle results to date, it would be easy not to be impressed, but take a look at the level of opposition. They have played both Kansas and Villanova. They also recently faced Cornell, who just took Kansas to the limit, and the Explorers only lost that game by three. The Explorers are once again led by explosive scorer Rodney Green, who scored 20+ on 14 different occasions last year. He's on pace to top that with 7 20+ pt efforts already this season. We expect a big game from Green tonight. The difference between this year and last is the addition of freshman Aaric Murray in the paint, who has already posted three double doubles. LaSalle has yet to cash as an underdog this year, but the bitter taste of last year's defeat will carry them to a cover this time around, if not an outright victory. LaSalle is our CBB Revenge Play of the Week.
Stephen Nover
20 Dime Alabama - 4 or 4.5 ( buy to 4 )
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy Texas/Bama BCS Championship ATS "BLOOD BATH" Alabama -3.5
Simply put, the Crimson Tide are a better team. It would take a lot to go wrong for Alabama not to dominate Texas in this match-up. Texas only has two weapons on offense, and that's QB Colt McCoy and WR Jordan Shipley. Alabama has set up a perfect game plan to take Shipley out of this game, and to try and make others beat them. It's that simple. Meanwhile, Alabama can do it all offensively. They have Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram in the backfield, and his backup Richardson offers a great change-of-pace back when he goes in there. They have star WR Julio Jones, who, in a spread offense, would be putting up stupid numbers. Instead, he's been a team player and is a great blocker downfield, along with an unbelievable playmaker. They also have Maze on the outside who will have a big game with Jones getting a lot of attention. Both teams have excellent defenses, but Alabama's numbers are much more impressive considering the schedule they have played. The Crimson Tide give up just 11.0 points/game and 243 total yards/game. Texas nearly lost to Texas A&M and Nebraska to close out their season, while Alabama crushed Florida, who are probably the second-best team in the country in our opinion. Alabama has come too far to let Texas steal the glory. Alabama is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. You are looking at one of the best teams in the history of college football, and they prove it Thursday. Take Alabama and lay the points.
The Boooj
75 Units Alabama -4
15 units on Xavier (-4.5) over LaSalle
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
1000* Play Alabama (-4) over Texas
Alabama has won 26 of the last 30 games when playing as a favorite and they have also won 18 of the last 19 games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game. Alabama has won 17 of the last 20 games coming off a conference win and they are only allowing an average of 11 points a game on defense this season.
PPP
3% Texas
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4* BEST BET - Texas
3* - Under
ANDY ISKOE
Texas at Alabama
Play: Under +46
This is the game many expected back in August. Or at least one of the most likely matchups as Texas was considered a solid choice to make it here to face Alabama, Florida or USC. USC was eliminated early in the season while both Florida and Alabama headed into their SEC Title game showdown unbeaten. Alabama won that game convincingly while Texas needed a fortuitous turn of events and a last second FG to edge Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game to play for the BCS Title. Both teams bring outstanding credentials into this contest. The defenses are ranked # 2 and # 3 in yardage and # 1 and # 8 in points. The offenses also rated highly with Alabama having the better rush attack and Texas better at tossing the pigskin. Alabama lost just 10 turnovers all season and was +16 in turnover margin. Texas created 35 turnovers and was +12 in margin. By virtue of playing in the SEC Alabama played the more demanding schedule. Their significantly better ATS mark also shows they performed better versus expectations than did Texas. Of course just prior to the win over Florida, Alabama struggled to bet by arch rival Auburn, coming from behind in the closing minute. Likewise Texas struggled to hold off their arch rival Texas A&M. Both teams are well coached and each coach already has a National Title – Texas’ Brown with their win over USC a few years back and ‘Bama’s Saban as coach at LSU 2 seasons earlier. Both teams will be well prepared on both sides of the football. Texas arguably has the better ability to come from behind with their more polished passing game. These defenses also rank #1 and #2 against the rush, making it important for Alabama’s offense to develop a passing game. Clearly either team can will this game and if these teams faced one another 50 times each should win 25. The value in this game is with Texas, based largely upon what everyone saw in both teams’ conference Championship games. For much of the season books that had “future” lines on potential BCS matchups had this matchup pretty much a pick ‘em. Both teams are highly motivated. Texas may be fueled as well by their feeling of being slighted last season despite defeating Oklahoma which lost to Florida in the BCS Title game. The Longhorns did not make it to the Big 12 Title game despite sharing the Big 12 South title with Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Teams ranked #2 have historically fared well when facing teams ranked #1 and with not much separating these teams the preference is to take the points with the Underdog. But with the line dropping close to a FG the preferred play for this game is the UNDER. We have two outstanding defenses and two solid but not dominating offenses. We've seen how defenses have placed greater emphasis on speed over the past decade or so and the split second difference between a good and a great defense is enough to interrupt offensive rhythm enough over the course of a game to cause offensive execution to suffer against great defenses when such execution succeeds against average to good defenses. This game handicaps in the mid to upper 30s, along the lines of 20-16 to 23-17, making the UNDER a solid play, especially as the Total rises above a "key" number of 45.
Texas at Alabama
Play: Alabama -4
Throughout the entire season I loved Alabama to win it all. I then preceded to go against them as they faced Florida, and that was obviously a mistake that I paid for.
Texas just won't be prepared defensively for the power run game the Crimson Tide have. And Alabama's defense is just so physical and good.
I think Alabama takes this one by double-digits.
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy Texas/Bama BCS Championship ATS "BLOOD BATH" Alabama -3.5
Simply put, the Crimson Tide are a better team. It would take a lot to go wrong for Alabama not to dominate Texas in this match-up. Texas only has two weapons on offense, and that's QB Colt McCoy and WR Jordan Shipley. Alabama has set up a perfect game plan to take Shipley out of this game, and to try and make others beat them. It's that simple. Meanwhile, Alabama can do it all offensively. They have Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram in the backfield, and his backup Richardson offers a great change-of-pace back when he goes in there. They have star WR Julio Jones, who, in a spread offense, would be putting up stupid numbers. Instead, he's been a team player and is a great blocker downfield, along with an unbelievable playmaker. They also have Maze on the outside who will have a big game with Jones getting a lot of attention. Both teams have excellent defenses, but Alabama's numbers are much more impressive considering the schedule they have played. The Crimson Tide give up just 11.0 points/game and 243 total yards/game. Texas nearly lost to Texas A&M and Nebraska to close out their season, while Alabama crushed Florida, who are probably the second-best team in the country in our opinion. Alabama has come too far to let Texas steal the glory. Alabama is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. You are looking at one of the best teams in the history of college football, and they prove it Thursday. Take Alabama and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy CBB Game of the Night on Troy -1
Troy has too much offensive firepower for Florida Atlanta to keep up Thursday. Troy scores 81.1 points/game and shoots 48.9% from the floor. Meanwhile, FAU is shooting just 39.7% this season which is a big reason for their 5-9 start. They also give up 78.0 points/game. Troy is 15-6 in their last 21 meetings with FAU overall, and 7-3 in their last 10 road meetings. FAU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Take Troy and lay the points.