Jeff Benton
40 Dime Ravens
15 Dime Nuggets
Ravens
If you haven’t heard it by now, I promise you’ll hear it 30 times before kickoff: Matt Ryan is 17-1 as a starter at home, and his Falcons have won 18 of their last 21 games at the Georgia Dome (Ryan missed two games last year due to injury). Those are fantaatic numbers, and I’m not going to try to poke holes in them, except to say this: The one team since the start of the 2008 season to win in Atlanta when Ryan started under center came from the AFC, and that was Denver (24-20 victory almost exactly two years ago).
The other AFC opponents the Falcons have faced (and defeated) over this 2½-year stretch: The Chiefs in 2008 (when Kansas City went 2-14); the Dolphins in last year’s season opener (Miami went 7-9); the Bills in Week 15 last year (Buffalo went 6-10); and the Bengals two weeks ago (Cincinnati is 2-6 and has lost five games in a row).
Here’s what I’m getting at: During Atlanta’s incredible stretch of success at home, it simply has not been challenged by quality AFC opponents (even Denver in 2008 finished 8-8).
Well, the Ravens not only are a quality opponent; in my opinion, they’re a Super Bowl contender. They sit at 6-2 on the season, and while their two losses came on the road, Baltimore played outstanding in both games. In a 15-10 loss at the Bengals in Week 2, the Ravens allowed just five field goals; they didn’t win because QB Joe Flacco (17-for-39, 154 yards, 4 INTs) had arguably his worst game as a pro. Then three weeks ago, Baltimore took a 20-10 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter at New England, but played passively on offense the rest of the way, allowing the Patriots to rally to force overtime. Eventually, New England won 23-20 on a field goal with less than two minutes to go in the extra session.
That means the Ravens – who have had a fourth-quarter lead in every one of their games this season – are eight points away from being undefeated.
The counter-argument, of course, is that Atlanta is also 6-2 (including the perfect 4-0 home record), with one of its losses coming in overtime at Pittsburgh in Week 1. But since then, the Falcons have played seven times, losing once and pulling out four close games that could’ve gone the other way – a 16-14 home win over the 49ers (Atlanta got the winning field goal with 2 seconds to play); a 27-24 overtime win at New Orleans (the Saints missed a gimme field goal in overtime that would’ve won it); a 20-10 win at Cleveland (it was a three-point game with 4 minutes to play when the Falcons got an interception for a touchdown by a defensive lineman who made an incredibly acrobatic play); and then Sunday’s 27-21 win over the Bucs (Atlanta stopped Tampa on a 4th-and-1 at the Falcons’ 2-yard line with 90 seconds to play).
Granted, good teams find a way to win close games – and make no mistake, the Falcons are a good team. They’re a very good team. That said, Baltimore ranks as one of the top four opponents Atlanta will have faced to this point in the season. The other three were the Saints, Steelers and Eagles, and the Falcons won one of those games (New Orleans) on a fluke in overtime, and lost the other two (Pittsburgh and Philadelphia) by a combined score of 46-26 while getting outgained by a combined 240 yards!
Note this, as well: The Saints, Eagles and Steelers all have outstanding defenses. Well, the Ravens come into this contest allowing only 17.4 points and 311 yards per game (206 passing); on the road, those figures dip to 15.2 points and 258.2 total yards per game (153 passing).
Put it all together and I just don’t like this matchup for Ryan and the Falcons, especially with Flacco finally in a groove (he’s got seven TDs and no INTs in his last three games, posting passer ratings of 119.3, 111.0 and 129.6). And the fact Atlanta is barely favored at home tonight – even when the Ravens have to travel on a short week – tells me I’m correct.
It almost certainly won’t be easy, but I’m looking for Baltimore to pull this one out by 4 to 7 points.
Nuggets
I full acknowledge that this is a “contrarian” play, as it’s difficult to defend Denver – coming off an atrocious 144-113 loss to the Pacers – against the two-time defending champs (who are off to an 8-0 start and have won 10 in a row going back to the NBA Finals). But we’ve all watched the NBA long enough to know that the regular season is nothing more than a six-month series of quirky games and unexplainable results, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Denver puts forth its best effort of the season tonight.
First off, every team in the NBA gets up to play Kobe and the Lakers, especially at home. And even though Carmelo Anthony isn’t happy that he’s still in Denver and might lay down like a dog at times this season, he will bring his A-game tonight – I have zero doubt about that. And the same goes for Chauncey Billups and the rest of the Nuggets.
Additionally, three of the Nuggets’ four wins have come against quality competition (Dallas and Houston on the road; Utah at home). And three of its losses were to the Mavericks (home), Hornets (road) and Bulls (road) – all playoff squads – by a total of nine points. So yeah, Denver didn’t show up (on defense, anyway) at Indiana on Tuesday – the second road game of a back-to-back, by the way – but that’s the only time all season.
As for the Lakers, can’t knock them one bit. They’ve picked up right where they left off in June, rolling to eight wins (5-3 ATS). However, six of their first eight contests were in Los Angeles, while the two road trips were easy journeys to Sacramento and Phoenix. So without question this will be the Lakers’ toughest road test of the season (and arguably their toughest game of the season, as their opponents to date have been the Rockets, Suns, Warriors, Grizzlies, Kings, Raptors, Blazers and TWolves).
Three more points: The oddsmakers wildly overvalued the Lakers in these marquee Thursday games last year, as L.A. failed to cover in eight of its last nine, but Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Thursday; 2) The Nuggets have covered in eight of their last 10 following a double-digit loss; and 3) Denver went 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS last season against the Lakers, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to the Pepsi Center.
The Lakers aren’t going 82-0, folks. They’re going to have their hiccups along the way, and I say the first one comes tonight against a wounded Denver squad that – I believe – is eager to atone for Tuesday’s disgraceful performance at Indiana.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Pitt -5.5
3 Units Falcons -1
3 Units Denver Nuggets
Rocky Sheridan
5* Atlanta Falcons -1
5* UCONN Huskies +6.5
5* Boise St Over 63
KELSO
10 UNITS PITTSBURGH PANTHERS -6.5
10 UNITS ATLANTA FALCONS -1
5 UNIT 2 TEAM PARLAY PITTSBURGH PANTHERS & ATLANTA FALCONS
10 UNITS BOSTON CELTICS +7
Billy Coleman
4* Bruins Under 5.5
3* Lakers -3
Power Play Wins
East Carolina +2
Evan Altemus
3 Units East Carolina +2
East Carolina's defense was completely embarrassed last week against Navy, giving up 76 points. However, UAB doesn't run the triple option and isn't going to have anywhere near the success that Navy had last week. East Carolina took a focused Navy team lightly and did not properly prepare for the triple option. The Pirates weakness by far is their rushing defense so it was a horrible combination for them. Now they have a chance to bounce back and will be motivated to bounce back against a much weaker offense in UAB. Meanwhile, East Carolina has a much more explosive offense than UAB. Quarterback Dominique Davis has already thrown for over 2700 yards this season and leads a very potent offense. The Pirates have averaged close to 500 yards of offense over their last 3 games and even put up 35 points against a very stingy Central Florida defense. UAB has played most teams tough this season but they don't have the offense to keep up with East Carolina, especially since the Pirates will bring a little more focused effort on defense. East Carolina also needs a win here to qualify for a bowl game, while UAB doesn't have as much to play for. The Pirates have also played much better against similar competition this season. Look for them to win this game outright.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion - Pittsburgh (-5 1/2) Strong Opinion at -6 1/2 or less.
Strong Opinion - East Carolina (+2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3.
MTi SPORTS
4* Boston Celtics Over
I am out of here guys.
Blade,
Blade,
I'm curious what the criteria is for posting handicappers plays. Should they be sent to you or can I just post them as I get them?
Thanks for your time.