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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, November 12,2009

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Rated Picks

Phoenix Suns: +7.5 2 units

Miami Ohio: +3 2 units

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 10:40 am
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Charlie

500* Bowling Green @ Miami Ohio Over 57
500* Northern Illinois -17
500* Bears @ 49ers Over 43'
30* San Francisco -3
20* Bowling Green -3'
20* South Florida +2'
10* Ball St @ Northern Illinois Under 46'
Cleveland -2 Free Play

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:14 pm
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Denver Money

3* Ottawa / Philadelphia OVER 5.5

2* Montreal / Phoenix OVER 5.5

1* Montreal +120

1* New Jersey +105

1* New Jersey / Pittsburgh UNDER 5.5

1* New York -170

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:14 pm
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BRANDON LANG

15 DIME - MIAMI-OHIO REDHAWKS -Let me get this straight.

You are 9-1 SU the last 10 in the series and you are getting 3 1/2 points at home tonight and the underdog has won the last 4 between these rivals? That is good enough for me.

This is a Redhawks team that played two teams currently in the top 10 early in the year with Boise State and Cincinnati, took their lumps early and are a better team right now because of it.

Over the last 5 weeks they stepped up and been competitive in every single game, picking up their first win of the year along the way.

Let's start with the 16-6 loss at Northwestern, the same Northwestern team that just knocked off undefeated Iowa. If that is not convincing enough, let's look at their last 4 games.

Against 3 of the best teams in the league; Ohio, Temple and Northern Illinois, only the Ohio game on the road got out of hand courtesy of 4 Miami-Ohio turnovers. No shame in that seeing as Ohio leads the country in forcing turnovers.

At home to Northern Illnois and at Temple, they were in both games down to the wire, losing 27-22 to NIU, and a heartbreaking 34-32 loss at Temple.

Folks, Northern Illinois will be facing Central Michigan at the end of the year for one half of the MAC crown while Ohio will be battling Temple for the other half to see who faces off in the MAC Championship.

Miami/Ohio is playing their best ball of the entire year right now facing their rival at home getting 3 points.

I am not taking anything away from Bowling Green. They have a great passing attack and Freddie Barnes is a game-changer, but the fact of the matter is I don't think Bowling Green should be laying points to anybody right now.

Miami/Ohio has nothing to lose and playing with a whole lot of confidence and I will roll with them tonight.

5 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the hook.) - I just don't trust Jay Cutler on the road against anybody right now.

When you are a QB in the NFL and you have no running game to compliment your passing attack, let's just say you are a lamb being led to the slaughter.

That is the problem facing the Bears right now.

You examine the Niners and you will see a 4 game losing streak, but if you look closer you will see losses to Atlanta, Houston, Indy and Arizona.

No shame in that as you might end up seeing all 4 of those teams playing in January. At least 3 for sure with the Texans having an outside shot.

I know the whole world will be on the Niners here but they are without question the right side of this game.

Another huge problem facing the Bears tonight is they can't stop the run, and if you can't stop the run in the NFL, you are not going to win football games. PERIOD.

All the advantages are with the Niners here who I feel are better coached, better running game and a better defense.

I will make the Bears on a short week travel out west and play error free football. I don't think they can and I am pretty darn confident Cutler will figure out a way to implode.

San Francisco is the play.

FREE SELECTION - SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:15 pm
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igz1 sports

3* Philadelphia -160

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:16 pm
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MR EAST

NCAAB THURSDAY UNDER THE RADAR PLAY

GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS @ NC STATE WOLFPACK
PLAY: GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS +10 FOR 4 UNITS

The Georgia St. Panthers will be a senior driven team with 6 seniors on the roster this season. They closed strong a year ago, as they have begun to come together. Add in a good recruitting class, and the Panthers should definately be an improved team. The same can't be said for NC State. The Pack finished just 6-10 in the ACC a year ago, and will likely be worse this season. They have lost their top 3 scorers, and return just 1 double-digit scorer. While Lowe has recruited well, the top prospect failed to qualify academically, and his best class won't be on campus until next year. It's going to be a year with a lot of freshman on the floor, and a lot of inexperienced holdovers taking the court as well. That doesn't bode well early in the season, and I'll go with the experienced team here, that is on the improve. Georgia St. gets the call.

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:17 pm
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Ben Burns

I'm playing on Ball State and Northern Illinois to finish UNDER the total. The Huskies won big last week. That game saw the final score of 50-6 finish well above the posted total. While that result has helped to keep today's number relatively high, I'm expecting the Huskies to score significantly fewer points and for a much lower final combined score overall. Prior to last week's offensive explosion, the Huskies had scored 27 or less in three straight games and they'd seen three of their previous four games finish below the total. All four of those games finished with less than 50 combined points. Including last week, the Huskies are allowing an average of only 12 points over their last five games and an average of only 6.33 points over their last three home games. They play tough defense and like to pound the ball on the ground. While that led to an 'over' last week, that type of playing style has seen the Huskies go a profitable 41-21 to the UNDER their last 62 games with a total, excluding 'pushes.' Ball State had a great team last year and scored a lot of points. Indeed, the Cardinals started the season with a perfect 12-0 record (finished 12-2) and they averaged a whopping 34.9 points per game. This year's team lost its QB, three of its top four receivers and four starters along the offensive line. Not surprisingly, points have been a lot harder to come by. In fact, the Cardinals are averaging only 20.6 per game, a very significant dropoff. The Cardinals did return seven defensive starters though. While the defense hasn't been great - it hasn't been completely terrible either. Last time out, the Cardinals lost 20-17. It was the fourth straight game that they allowed 31 points or less. Three of those four games finished below the total with all three of those games finishing with 48 points or less. Like the Huskies, the Cardinals will be running the ball frequently, which should help to keep the clock moving. I expect them to find the going pretty tough though and look for the UNDER to improve to 6-1 the last seven times that the Huskies played a home game with a total in the 42.5 to 49 range. *7 Roast

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:17 pm
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Gary Olshan

Bears at 49ers
Pick: 49ers -3

Expect SF to snap its 4-game losing streak vs. a Chicago team, whose defense has slipped dramatically this season. Expect Alex Smith and his supporting cast to burn a Bear defense licking its wounds after allowing 41 pts. vs. Arizona last week. 49er WR Crabtree and TE Davis should have big games vs. hurting Bear secondary.

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:19 pm
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Steven Budin

25 DIME - SF 49ers

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:32 pm
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MONEY LOCK OF THE DAY

3 Units Bears/49ers Over 43

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:32 pm
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Dave Malinsky

4* Cleveland +1

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 12:56 pm
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Tim Trushel

N. Illinois Under

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 2:20 pm
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John Ryan

15* Ball State/Northern Illinois Under 46.5

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 2:21 pm
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BLACK WIDOW

6* Widow Wiseguy Bears/49ers Thursday Night SLAUGHTER on Chicago Bears +3

We'll take the points here Thursday as the Bears travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers' team that has lost 4 straight games. Chicago is sitting at 4-4 and still has a shot to finish the season strong and catch a wild card spot, while San Francisco at 3-5 doesn't have a whole lot to play for as they enter the second half of the season. What seemed to be one of the best defenses in the league to start the season, the 49ers' stop unit has been absolutely torched in their last 4 games. With starting CB's Nate Clements and Walt Harris out due to injury, teams have been able to move the ball through the air at will on this 49ers' secondary. They allowed 329 passing yards to Matt Ryan in a 10-45 home loss, 246 passing yards to Matt Schaub in a road loss, and 349 yards to Peyton Manning in another road loss. Tennessee beat them in a variety of different ways last week in a 27-34 home loss. A big reason they scored 34 points was due to 4 turnovers by this 49ers' offense, including 3 interceptions from Alex Smith. San Francisco is in shambles right now at the QB position. Smith makes more plays, but he also makes more mistakes. They have committed 11 turnovers in their last 4 games. Chicago has an opportunistic defense that has forced 2 or more turnovers in 5 of their last 7 games. Both teams are pretty evenly matched defensively, but the edge has to go to the Bears on offense. Chicago has a new-found passing game under Jay Cutler, as they throw for 242 passing yards/game. Cutler should have a field day against this 49ers' defense that allows 241 passing yards/game on the season, and whose pass defense has really been awful of late. Cutler will make more plays than Smith against a beat-up 49ers' secondary, and that will be the difference in this game. The Bears are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Chicago gets a much-needed win Thursday to get back in the playoff hunt. Take the Bears and the points.

5* Wiseguy USF/Rutgers ESPN Big East Brawl on Rutgers -2

These are two very evenly matched teams as Rutgers and South Florida both own identical 6-2 records. The advantage has to go to the home squad in the Scarlet Knights Thursday as they pick up that signature win they've been craving. Knowing that Rutgers dominated USF 46-19 on the road last season also gives plenty of reason to like the Scarlet Knights Thursday. USF hasn't changed much from last year, except now they are playing without starting QB Matt Grothe. This Rutgers' defense is one of the best in the Big East, and they are very opportunistic. The Scarlet Knights have forced 2 or more turnovers in 6 straight games. During this 6-game stretch, they have forced a total of 21 turnovers for an average of 3.5 turnovers/game. South Florida has committed 2 or more turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games, being very sloppy with the ball. They have only forced 3 turnovers in their last 3 games. In a game between two evenly matched teams, turnovers normally decide the outcome. With the evidence provided, Rutgers will likely force USF and freshman QB BJ Daniels into more mistakes and that will be the difference in this game. Tom Savage has been very efficient for Rutgers, throwing 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception this season. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. This hasn't been a very pleasant stage for South Florida to say the least. USF is 4-11 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Take Rutgers and lay the points.

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 3:39 pm
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Trace Adams

1500♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Kudos to South Florida for the upset win over West Virginia at home back on October 30th, and while red-shirt freshman QB Daniels looked dynamite in that win over the Mountaineers, that win did come at HOME. I don't think on a blustery night in North Jersey he will have the same kind of success that he had a few Friday's ago.

Rutgers has been getting better under true-frosh Savage to direct the Scarlet Knights into the end-zone on a more frequent basis than his counterpart, especially when you consider the fact the Bulls usually shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, and penalties - SoFla simply untrustworthy!

Last year Rutgers went into Tampa and rolled to a 49-16 win as the 8-point dog thanks in part to 6 turnovers by the Bulls. That made it 3 straight series wins for the Knights, and covers in the last pair.

Rutgers lone loss in their last 7 games comes at home to Pittsburgh under the Friday night lights on 10/16. I expect the Scarlet Knights to be ready to contain Daniels in this one, as they have had an extra-week to game plan the youngster, and I fully expect the team from New Jersey to hand the Bulls their 3rd loss in 4 games.

Take Rutgers in this near-pick contest.

 
Posted : November 12, 2009 3:40 pm
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