Seabass
200* Dolphins
50* Washington
ATS LOCK CLUB
3 UNITS CHICAGO BEARS +1.5
4 UNITS PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
3 UNITS SANTA CLARA BRONCOS
3 UNITS COLORADO STATE RAMS UNDER
3 UNITSAIR FORCE FALCONS UNDER
Wayne Root
No Limit - Illinois
Billionaire - Miami
Millionaire - Washington
KELSO
25 UNITS CHICAGO BEARS +1
25 UNITS LOYOLA CHICAGO RAMBLERS -10.5
10 UNITS UCLA BRUINS +2
10 UNITS ARIZONA WILDCATS -10.5
5 UNITS RICHMOND SPIDERS -5.5
Jeff Benton
20 DIME BEARS/DOLPHINS UNDER FIRST-HALF
10 DIME UCLA
BEARS/DOLPHINS UNDER (First-Half ONLY)
NFL players are creatures of habit, and when you mess with their routines, they generally don’t respond positively. Case in point: A week ago tonight, the Ravens and Falcons – just four days after playing grueling Sunday contests – took the field at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, slept-walked through a scoreless first quarter and by halftime, the score was 10-0 (with three of those points coming on a field goal with 17 seconds left in the half).
In the first Thursday Night game of the season back on Sept. 9, the Vikings and Saints – who field two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL – mustered just 16 points.
Last year, the NFL scheduled nine Thursday games – including three Thanksgiving Day contests – and the combined first-half scores were as follows: 14, 10, 17, 20, 17, 16, 26, 16 and 38 points. So since the start of last season, nine of 11 Thursday contests in the NFL ended with first-half point totals of less than 20. And even though last week’s Falcons-Ravens barely got over the total because of a wild fourth quarter (two touchdowns scored in the final 75 seconds), the under for the game is 9-2 on Thursdays.
And guess what? The Bears and Dolphins each contributed to that 9-2 “under” run. Exactly 53 weeks ago, the Bears went to San Francisco and lost 10-6 to the 49ers (the score was 7-3 at the half). The very next week, the Dolphins went to Carolina and won 24-17, with the game staying under the 42-point total (and the score was 14-3 at the half).
Of course, you can’t rely solely on history when handicapping, and I’m not about to do that here. You also have to examine the matchup and situation. Well, tonight you’ve got the Bears traveling down to South Beach following a physical and emotional 27-13 home victory over the rival Vikings, with most of Chicago’s points being set up by Brett Favre turnovers. The 27 points tied the Bears’ high-water mark for the season and marked just the fourth time all season they’ve eclipsed 20 points.
Chicago is still netting only 19.4 points and 297.3 yards per game. So how is this team 6-3? Defense. Chicago is yielding just 16.2 points and 302 total yards per game, including a scant 82.3 rushing ypg.
Now, the Dolphins are also coming off their biggest offensive effort of the season, a 29-17 victory over the Titans. Prior to that, Miami hadn’t scored more than 23 points all season, and it is right behind Chicago in scoring offense, averaging 19.1 ppg. And as you know, the Dolphins are down to their third-string quarterback in Tyler Thigpen – yet another reason to love the first-half UNDER, as you know Miami coach Tony Sparano is going to try to establish the run and short passing game to take the pressure off Thigpen and build his confidence.
As for Miami’s defense, it is yielding just 21.3 points and 314 yards per game, holding five of nine opponents to 20 points or less. Most importantly, the Dolphins rank 11th in the NFL in sacks (23), which is important because no quarterback in the NFL has been put on his back as frequently as Cutler (29 sacks). Given that fact, plus his awful performance in that Thursday nighter in San Francisco last year (5 interceptions), wouldn’t it make sense for Chicago coach Lovie Smith and mad-hatter offensive coordinator Mike Martz to employ a conservative game plan, at least at the start?
Bottom line: The only reason I’m not touching the UNDER for the entire game is because I think Miami will loosen the reins on Thigpen in the second half, and because I don’t trust Cutler to play mistake-free for 60 minutes. So this could end up a 21-20, 24-17 type of game, but if so, the vast majority of the points – like last Thursday night – will come in the second half following a first-half in which we’ll see a 7-7, 10-3, 10-7 type of score.
UCLA
I know Washington gets star QB Jack Locker (ribs) back from injury tonight, but how big of a deal is that, really? Locker, who would’ve been a Top 5 NFL draft pick had he left Washington after last season, has been nothing more than average, completing just 56 percent of his passes for 1,6878 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs. And in the last two games in which Locker started, the Huskies lost to Arizona (44-14) and Stanford (41-0) by the combined score of 85-14. In fact, Washington has been held to 21 points or less in six of nine games this season.
UCLA has been similarly inconsistent on offense this year, but at least the Bruins are coming off an impressive victory, outlasting Oregon State 17-14 as a four-point home underdog 12 days ago. This matchup favors UCLA from a fundamental perspective, too. See, the Bruins’ offense revolves around running the football, and they average 194.4 yards per game on the ground (4.5 per carry). Well, the Huskies’ defense has been dreadful across the board – Washington surrenders 36.2 points and 440 yards per game – but especially so when it comes to stopping the run, yielding 219.6 ypg and 5.2 yards per carry!
UCLA has owned this rivalry, winning three straight and eight of nine from Washington (including a 27-7 rout as a 6½-point favorite in its last trip to Seattle in 2008). The Bruins are also 10-3 ATS in the last 13 (5-1 ATS in Seattle).
You have to go back to a now-shocking 32-31 upset of USC on Oct. 2 for the last time Washington covered a pointspread (0-5 ATS since), and the Huskies are in additional pointspread funks of 18-40-1 at home, 28-62-2 in Pac-10 games, 6-16 after a SU loss, 7-18-2 against losing teams, 13-35-3 as a favorite (all a home) and 0-4 as a favorite of less than three points. Conversely, the Bruins have covered in nine of their last 11 as a short underdog (three points or less).
MTi Sports
4* Magic
4* Blazers Under
Evan Altemus
1* Bears / Dolphins Under 40
I went back and forth on this game debating between selecting Miami or the UNDER. However, there are a few reasons that made me think that under the total is the best selection. Chicago's defense has quietly been one of the better defenses in the league this season. The Bears have held every offense except one to 20 points or less this season. Seattle scored 23 points against them, but 2 points was from a safety and one of the touchdowns they gave up was on a short field after the free kick from the safety. Chicago's defense has played well on the road as well, holding the Giants and Cowboys to low scoring days. I don't consider their defensive road performances against Buffalo and Carolina very notable because those teams are so bad anyway. Miami's offense hasn't been high scoring at all this season, so I don't expect them to do much against the Bears with a 3rd string quarterback and a severely injured left tackle. The Dolphins have scored 22 points or less in regulation in seven games this season. Minnesota, New England, Buffalo, and Baltimore all held them to very low point totals, and their 22 points against Pittsburgh was aided by Steelers turnovers deep in their own territory. Also, Miami has a tough time scoring touchdowns in the red zone and Chicago has a great rushing defense, so they should contain the Dolphins rushing game. Meanwhile, Miami's secondary has performed well this season, and they match up well against Chicago's pass first offense. Jay Cutler is prone to mistakes, and I expect the Dolphins to frustrate him all game. Chicago has also been held to 22 points or less in 6 games this season. Every quality defense has been able to shutdown the Bears this season. Look for this game to be ugly, sluggish, and low scoring.
1* Richmond +5
Richmond is going to be a very dangerous team in March during the NCAA tournament. The showed their potential last year by making a deep run in the A-10 tournament before losing to Temple. The Spiders played St. Mary's very tough last season in the NCAA tournament 1st round before Omar Samhan took over. However, Richmond returns every single player on their roster from last year, minus two starters. However, the Spiders are even more balanced scoring now, and the other starters are complementing star player Kevin Anderson even better. Head coach Chris Mooney is one of the best young coaches in the country as well, and he has gotten some very talented recruits into the program as well. Richmond has absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, and Iona will be no match for them either. The Gaels are 0-3 to start the season, but none of their opponents are anywhere near as good as Richmond is. Iona meanwhile returns several players from last year's team, but they are still very young and dealing with a new coach. The team greatly improved last year, but last year's head coach Kevin Williard is now at Seton Hall. There is also a huge talent gap between players from the MAAC and Atlantic 10. Richmond doesn't have any big game looming either, and I expect them to come out strong and continue their dominant play in their first road game. Look for Richmond to get a blowout win.
GREAT LAKES SPORTS
5* Pittsburgh Panthers