SAM CLAYTON
NORTH CAROLINA VS OHIO STATE
Madison Square Garden, NYC
Finally, the defending national champions have their first real test of the season after dismantling Florida International, North Carolina Central and Valparaiso. Yawn. Ohio State is an entirely different monster, however, and they are without question a definite threat to knock off the Tar Heels at the Garden. The Buckeyes are a very strong defensive team that possesses tons of length and athleticism. And while Ohio State's frontcourt doesn't hold a candle talent-wise in comparison to North Carolina, OSU does have a shot-blocking anchor in Dallas Lauderdale (one of the nation's top rejectors) and a big 7-footer in Zisis Sarikopolous, a transfer from UAB. Along with senior center Kyle Madsen, the three OSU bigs will be responsible for containing Deon Thompson, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. Thompson is infamous for disappearing in the second half, and Davis and Zeller have been known to shy away from physicality. Thad Matta needs to have his bigs motivated and ready to play the aggressor against the Heels. And should Matta decide to come out playing zone (which I would highly suggest), it would give the Buckeyes a much better chance to crash the boards and keep Carolina off the offensive glass.
Still, the decisive factor for tonight's contest is going to be the guard play, where I give an unquestionable advantage to the Buckeyes because of All-American in-the-making Evan Turner. The former St. Joe's standout is one of the most versatile players in the nation and he's one hell of an assignment for any opposing defender. Marcus Ginyard should draw the task although it's not just about keeping Turner off the scoreboard, it's about shutting down his drives and slashes, and keeping him off the offensive glass. Unselfish as can be, Turner is downright dangerous off the dribble and his awareness and ability to find the open man is uncanny. He also has three inches on Ginyard, which would give Evan a definite advantage in the post-up game. Turner will look to find sweet-shooting Jon Diebler roaming the perimeter (42% 3PT last year) and combo-guard William Buford, who should have no problem working on the much shorter and weaker Larry Drew II. Speaking of Drew, he'll also be bringing up the ball for Carolina and he's been far from spectacular. In fact, North Carolina has turned the ball over 12 times a game (against terrible competition) as opposed to Ohio State's 7.5 -- the assist/turnover ratios are 1.5/1 and 2.8/1 respectively. If the Buckeyes turn up the pressure on Ginyard and the panicky Drew, the floodgates could open wide for easy buckets in transition.
The oddsmakers have set a very compact line for this game and they believe that the Buckeyes will push North Carolina to the limit. I definitely agree and could easily see this one coming down to the final shot ... which would put us in a great position to cover regardless of which team finds the bottom of the net. Nonetheless, I'm banking on the bigger and longer backcourt to deliver as Turner, Diebler and Buford prove to be too much for Carolina's guards to handle. If Thad Matta sticks with a zone scheme and the Buckeyes hedge inside the three-point line and between the low block, things could get very interesting. The Tar Heels have the definite advantage in the low post, so Ohio State will make Carolina's guards make plays. And with how poorly the UNC backcourt has been shooting, I like our chances.
PICK: Ohio State +2.5 - 25 dimes
SYRACUSE VS CALIFORNIA
Madison Square Garden, NYC
Despite the fact that this is practically a home game for the Orange (given their familiarity and proximity to the Garden), I still like Cal to bring home the 'W.' The Golden Bears are an experience-driven team that returns four senior starters -- last year's top four scorers -- most notably in the backcourt. Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher are two of the smartest guards in the country and it's hard for me to find another tandem that's as well-rounded as they are. Randle is the ultimate playmaker, as he's able to slash to the basket and open up the floor with dribble penetration. He also shoots the deep ball remarkably well (46% last season) and has the luxury of squaring off against Cuse freshman Brandon Triche. When Randle beats his man off the dribble, he'll have Christopher (36% 3PT) and Theo Robertson (49% 3PT) on the wings and they are more than capable of capitalizing on broken coverage.
I like this matchup for the Bears because of their definite quickness edge and their ability to draw the Syracuse big men away from the basket. Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are solid players, yes, but their main operative is camping on the low block on defense. They'll have their hands full trying to slow down athletes like Robertson and Jamal Boykin. As far as offense goes, Cuse's frontcourt likes to play physical and outmuscle weaker defenders. This is where Markhuri Sanders-Frison, Cal's most important newcomer, comes into play. The Juco is an absolute bull in the paint (6-7, 275) and he's the brute strength yin to his teammates' agile yang. And don't let Cuse's two blowout wins against below-average competition fool you, this team's stock has dropped drastically since last season. Jimmy Boeheim lost more than half of his scoring (Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris), and I don't trust the erraticism of Andy Rautins or the inexperience of Triche.
The only reason this line is near pick-em status is because it's being played approximately 3,000 miles away from Berkeley. Still, with all the experience and leadership that Cal brings to the table, I think they'll be fine. This team isn't scared of a dogfight and they aren't going to be phased by a long travel itinerary. Mike Montgomery will have the Bears prepared to attack whatever defense Boeheim throws out and for Jimmy's sake, it better not be the 2-3 zone that failed miserably against Oklahoma in the tourney. Too much team speed and quickness for Cal as the prodding Syracuse big men find themselves in foul trouble trying to keep up with the much quicker and more elusive Bears.
PICK: California PK - 15 dimes
James Patrick Sports
5* Pot of Gold
Blackhawks vs. Flames
Play: Calgary Flames
In an effort to restore dominance to the Flames defense, GM Daryll Sutter hired his brother Brent away from the New Jersey Devils. Together the Sutter Brothers will turn Calgary into a top Stanley Cup contender from the Western Conference. Chicago put out the Flames in last season’s playoffs and again in their first meeting this season. We look for the Flames to make a statement on their home ice with a convincing win this time out.
David Banks
Dayton Flyers +1
Brandon Lang
10 DIME - MIAMI DOLPHINS - (if line is 3, you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2) - The bottom line is this.
If the Panthers can't run the football against the Dolphins what does that mean?
It means Jake "I love to throw interceptions" Delhomme will have to beat Miami with his arm. Advantage Miami.
Now the AFC and NFC have faced off 29 times this year, with the AFC being a road dog on 11 of those occasions. Guess what the ATS number is?
AFC 7-4 ATS.
Both teams are going to try and run the football and get in play action situations, but for my dollar I believe the Dolphins are going to have more success doing that.
I feel Miami has the better run defense and the numbers show just that allowing less than a 100 yards, while the Panthers give up close to 130.
I know the Panthers have played very well as of late but just when you think you have this team figured out, good old Jake implodes. I am not going to be on the wrong side of that implosion tonight.
If he plays a great game and beats me, so be it. I will take my loss like a man and move on to College football, NBA, and college hoops on Friday and get ready for the weekend.
People are making a big deal out of the loss of Ronnie Brown and I believe it will hurt Miami to a certain degree, but over the last 4 weeks Ricky Williams has actually run for more yards.
I am more impressed with the Dolphins body of work this year as a whole than I am with Carolina as is my feeling the AFC is the superior conference over the NFC, and any time I can get points with the AFC in a battle like this I will gladly take them.
I've maintained for years that when dealing with the Carolina Panthers you go with them as an underdog and against them as a favorite.
Look at this year. Carolina has been favored twice this year and they failed to cover the number both times.
At home versus the Redskins they were laying anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5 and won by 20-17 in a game they should have lost, and 2 games later laying 7 at home to Buffalo they lost 20-9 as a 7 point chalk.
This team has never been able to be trusted as a home favorite and that is exactly the reason why I will gladly take the Dolphins +3 1/2 and watch this game fall right on 3.
FREE SELECTION - COLORADO BUFFALOES
Lenny Del Genio's San Juan BLOWOUT (5-0 in CBB) **DAY GAME**
Play on Ole Miss at 5:00 ET.
Matt Fargo's 9* CBB DARK HORSE DANDY - AFTERNOON TIP - Thursday
**9** CBB DARK HORSE DANDY *AFTERNOON TIP* This is an early start game with tip off at 1:30 ET 9* Tulane Green Wave
WAYNE ROOT
2009 Football Upset Club
4* Colorado (+17) over Oklahoma State
3* Panthers (-3) over Dolphins
No Limit: Pacific
Billionaire: Rider
Jim Feist
10-0 SU/ATS! 20-Star NBA Trend Tracker Game of the Year
UTAH Jazz VS SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Take: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Utah heads out on the road in the second of a back to back spot for both teams, and Utah is 2-4 on the road. This will be the 5th road game over the last 6 games for a tired and underachieving Jazz team. Utah is 1-8 ATS their last nine times playing the second of a back-to-back situation and 3-12 ATS the last 15 times! Utah just finished up a grueling East Coast trip, too, four games on the road, including tough trips to Boston and Cleveland (two losses). San Antonio is 4-1 at home where they play their best defenses. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS the last 14 meetings with Utah. In San Antonio, the Spurs are 10-0 both SU and ATS vs Utah, including an average margin of victory of 17 ppg. A great spot for a big win by the home team. Play the Spurs!
MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY BLOWOUT
UTAH VALLEY ST. WOLVERINES @ MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
PLAY: 3 UNITS MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS -24.5
The Golden Gophers are back. The Gophers have taken out their first 2 opponents in resounding fashion by 37 and 40 points, and I see no slowing down vs Utah Valley St. Utah Valley St. lost their top scorer from a year ago in Ryan Toolson, who averaged 23.8ppg, and this team played noone of note all of last season. Tubby Smith took a hit with eligibility issues, and a suspension from a Mall incident, but the team is still very talented, and experienced. This is about as big a mismatch as the first 2 and I expect another 30+ point win for the Gophers here.
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE
10 DIMERS - CAROLINA PANTHERS, & INDIANA HOOSIERS
30 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Seeing that the Cowboys are on an 11-2 spread run - 84.6% for those of you that are counting - while the Buffaloes are on an 8-16 spread run on the road - 33.3% for those of you that are counting - I will side with the host to do the damage under the national tv lights.
This could certainly be the final straw that breaks the camels' back for Dan Hawkins' tenure, as Hawkins and CU has been an oil-and-water mixture for sure.
Colorado just played at Iowa State in a loss, and now they travel on short rest to play against the Oklahoma State buzzsaw that leads the nation in time of possession. You think the Buffs lumbering defense is going to wear down?
Remember the last time Colorado traveled on a short week to Toledo? The Buffs got waxed, and the Rockets aren't even that good. This one could get very ugly.
Go ahead and lay the lumber.
10 DIMER - CAROLINA PANTHERS
With Ronnie Brown being the focal point of the Miami "wildcat" attack, and with Brown's ankle injury keeping him sidelined, I will go ahead and side with the home team in this one.
Carolina is actually showing a pulse with wins and covers in 4 of their last 6 games, and Jake Delhomme hasn't thrown a pick in 3 games! The Panthers are starting to believe they can make some noise in the wild card standings with a few more "W"s, so let's mark them up for a play as the home favorite tonight, as Miami will sorely miss the services of Brown in this one, and this also happens to be Miami's 3rd roadie in the last 4 weeks.
Take Carolina minus the points.
10 DIMER - INDIANA HOOSIERS - 5:00 PM TIP-OFF!
I know Ole Miss is a little further along than Indiana is right now, but I also know not to doubt Tom Crean, and with a full season now under his belt in Bloomington, I expect the Hoosiers to be one of those teams that can be dangerous in the right spot.
That right spot looks like today to me in this tournament game from Puerto Rico.
Going to give Indiana a shot plus the points in this neutral site game to get a big win for the program and Crean.
Take the Hoosiers plus the points.
Steven Budin
25 DIME RELEASE
Carolina
Note: As I release this play around 1 A.M. Eastern on Wednesday, there are more 3's than 3 1/2's both in Vegas and offshore. In either case, I would absolutely buy down to -2 1/2 or 3. And if for some reason this line moves back up and you're saddled with -4 - even after shopping for the best price - go ahead and buy down the half-point to -3 1/2 on the Panthers.
Charlie
500* New Orleans +8'
500* Colorado @ Okl State Over 47
500* Miami @ Carolina Under 42'
30* Carolina -3
20* Colorado +17'
20* Chicago +9'
10* Long Beach St +15'
Spurs -7 Free Play
RAS
All One Unit
Montana +4.5
Rice +15.5
Richmond -4
Dave Malinsky
Top of the Ticket
4* L.A. LAKERS/CHICAGO UNDER
The return of Pau Gasol is being treated much differently by the betting markets than the oddsmakers ? we have seen an opening Total of 190 climb all the way to 195. And that brings excellent value for our purposes. Are the Lakers a better offensive team with Gasol on board? Of course. But they are also much better defensively, especially with Phil Jackson opting to go with him at the #4 spot tonight, leaving Andrew Bynum at #5 and creating a ?Twin Towers? presence inside. With those two protecting the basket, and Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest aggressive on the perimeter, this can become one of the best defenses in the NBA once they get a chance to jell. It is also a defense that will cause huge headaches for the Bulls, who are 27th on our best offensive charts through 10 games, and who will see Luol Deng locked up by Artest and John Salmons by Bryant, leaving Derrick Rose with nowhere to go with the ball. Chicago is defending tenaciously, however. They are all the way up to #3 on our best charts and when you consider that they have already faced the Celtics, Cavaliers, Spurs (with all hands on deck), Nuggets and Heat the numbers have a legitimacy. In addition to those playoff-bound opponents they also played Toronto, which rates #1 on offense so far this season. They bring an excellent work ethic on that end of the court, and it helps having good wingspans at every position in the starting lineup. They will struggle to score tonight, but will also make the Lakers work hard for everything they can get, and in what is a well-positioned road game (this will only be the second game in five nights, and they are off tomorrow) their tenacity helps to set a sluggish flow to this one.
Rated Picks
3 Units: Mississippi -9
2 Units: Kansas State: -14.5
2 Units: Miami Florida: -10.5
2 Units: Penn State: -11