Ben Burns
10* Detroit Lions +6
The Lions getting blown out on Thanksgiving morning has become somewhat of a tradition. Facing a red hot New England team, most of the betting public will expect another mismatch. This year's team has been far more competitive than recent versions though and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. The Lions failed to cover last week. However, they still held a 338 to 265 advantage in total yards. Additionally, they've still gone a highly profitable 7-2-1 ATS on the season. Five of their SU losses this season have been by five points or less. They've been particularly tough at home. In fact, they're a perfect 4-0 ATS (2-2 SU) here, outscoring teams by an average of 33.2 to 22.2. On the other hand, the Pats are 3-2 SU/ATS on the road, outscoring opponents by a modest 26.2 to 24.4 margin. Note that New England was outgained by an average of 385.6 to 294.2 in those games, in terms of total yards. While playing on Thanksgiving is always a special "treat" for teams, I feel that the Pats could be susceptible to overlooking the Lions here. After all, they're off back to back huge conference games (Steelers and Colts) AND they've got a huge divisional showdown vs. the Jets on deck. For all this season's success, note that the Pats are just 2-4-1 ATS when laying points, including 0-1 SU/ATS when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. That loss was against Cleveland a few weeks back, the last time that the Pats played a team with a losing record. I had a big play on the Browns in that game and thought that getting +4 points at the time was generous. Now, we're getting even more points to work with and given how competitive the Lions have been at home, I feel that's just too much. The bottom line is that I really don't feel that there's as big a gap between these teams as indicated by the records. They've averaged nearly an identical number of yards per game on offense and Detroit is actually allowing less yards per game on defense. This is the Lions' chance to show the national audience that things really are different this season. I look for them to do just that by taking this game down to the wire with a solid shot at the outright upset.
10* Bengals / Jets Under 43
These teams both saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a relatively high O/U number to work with. Given the situation and the recent history between these teams, I believe that its generously high. You may recall that these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season. That game finished above the total. However, that's because the O/U line was only 34. Note that the final score of that game (24-14) would have stayed below this year's much larger number. A closer look at that game reveals that the Jets ran the ball 41 times while only throwing 15 times. The Jets would love to dominate a game on the ground and with their defense and for once avoid having it come down to the wire. Jets linebacker Jason Taylor was quoted as saying: "We need to put these games to bed a little earlier..." The Jets have shown that their offense is better than last season. However, they still believe that they've also got the best defense in the league and this is their chance to prove it to the world. Note that the Jets run the ball an average of 32.8 times per game, the second most number of rushing attempts per game in the league. As you know, frequent running plays tend to keep the clock going. (Prior to that playoff game, these teams did also combine for 37 points the previous week - however, that result wasn't particularly relevant as only one of the teams really cared about winning.) It should be noted that this is the second highest O/U line that the Jets have seen all season. The only higher one was against Houston; the Texans are a high-scoring team which tends to get involved in high-scoring games. The Bengals defense was admittedly pretty bad in the second half of last week's game. Indeed, they were outscored 35-0 by the Bills in the second half. That should be all the more reason to emphasize playing hard on that side of the ball this week. The Bengals did run the ball 30 times last week. While it won't be easy against a tough NY defense, they'd dearly like to establish their run game here, in an effort to take some pressure off Palmer (13 INTs) and also in an effort to keep their defense (and the Jets offense) off the field. Speaking of Palmer, he's thrown an awful lot of interceptions and has a very low passer rating. He has had success hooking up with Terrell Owens. However, that figures to be far more difficult with Revis on the field. Already this month, Revis has held Andre Johnson to four catches for 32 yards while limiting Calvin Johnson to one reception for only 13 yards. (He's also had success against Owens in the past.) Prior to last week, the Bengals did hold the Colts to 23 points, at Indianapolis. Including that result, three of their last four road games have finished with 43 or fewer combined points. Dating back to a regular season game here in October of 2008, which finished with a score of 26-14 in favor of New York, the Bengals have seen 14 of 18 road games finish with 43 or fewer combined points. Even with last week's high-scoring game, NY home games are still averaging only 35.2 combined points with opposing teams averaging only 278 total yards here. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair.
UNDER cowboys/saints (50 or better)
9* Patriots / Lions Under 50
These teams both saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a very high O/U number to work with. With both teams on a short week and playing an 'early game, I believe that its too high. This is the highest O/U line the Patriots have seen for a road game yet this season. Even when matched up against high-scoring San Diego, the O/U line was only 49. That one stayed below the total with the teams combining for 43 points. Only of the Patriots last 20 road games had an O/U line in the 50s. That one fell below the total. This is also the highest O/U line that the Lions have seen all season. Note that the UNDER is 5-2-1 the last eight times that they played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater, including 3-1-1 at home. The Pats have seen the UNDER go 10-5-1 their last 16 games against teams with a losing record and 4-2 the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Including last year's 34-12 loss to the Packers, the Lions have seen 10 of their last 12 Thanksgiving Day games finish with 50 or fewer combined points. Those 12 games averaged 43.9 points. The UNDER is 4-2 in six meetings between these these teams, going way back to the 1980s. The last meeting here at Detroit was in 2002. That game stayed well below the total, a 20-12 New England victory. I mention that game, as it also happened to be on Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the Pats have seen the UNDER go 15-8 their last 23 games against teams from the NFC North, numbers I expect to improve here.
9* Saints / Cowboys Under 50
The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine for nearly two months now. Squaring off against the defending world champs, a team with a very capable offense, most will be expecting a 'shootout.' As usual, I see things a little differently. Dallas has been much better defensively, since Phillips was released. In Phillips' final three games, the Cowboys allowed 45, 35 and 41 points. However, since Garrett assumed control, they've allowed 20 or fewer points in each game. True, Dallas did manage 35 points last week. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys still only managed 265 total yards of offense. Even with that effort, they're still only averaging 22.9 points per game. Now, the Cowboys will be matched up against a New Orleans defense which is quietly allowing only 17 points per game and a mere 15.2 points per game on the road. In four Saints' road games, opposing teams are managing an average of 270.7 total yards. While the Saints offense remains very capable, note that they're averaging a modest 23.5 points per game on the season. While this is clearly a different team, its still worth noting that the Cowboys have been dominant defensively in each of their past two Thanksgivings. Two years ago, they limited Seattle to nine points. Last season, they held Oakland to seven points. Not surprisingly, both games fell below the number. Speaking of last season, these teams also faced each other last season. Like this afternoon's game, that one was expected to be high-scoring, as it had an O/U line in the low 50s. Yet, the teams combined for 'only' 41 points, bringing the UNDER to 8-3 the last 11 meetings between these teams. With at least one and perhaps both of the defenses rising to the occasion, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting, with the final score falling below the generous number.
Brandon Lang
New Orleans / Dallas Over 50
Wunderdog
New England / Detroit Under 50.5
New Orleans / Dallas Under 50
Cincinnati / New York Jets Pick: Under 43
Northcoast
2* Saints
Marquee - Texas
STREET ROSENTHAL
*200 Texas Longhorns +4
*200 New England Patriots -6.5
Larry Ness
10* Thursday NFL GOY - Saints
There is a school of thought that believes that the firing of Wade Phillips is just what Dallas needed to kick start its season. The argument goes that Jason Garrett's demand for responsibility and accountability has refocused this team and has eliminated the mental errors that the Cowboys had been making this season. Some even argue that at 3-7, the Cowboys are still alive in the NFC playoff chase. I do NOT subscribe to these points of view. Looking back, Dallas' upset win over the Giants on the heels of the Phillips' firing was not too surprising given the aftermath of the Phillips' dismissal. However, let's not read too much into the Cowboys' 35-19 win at home last Sunday over a Lions team that has now experienced 26 straight losses on the road. In fact, the fact that Detroit still outgained the Cowboys by 71 yards of offense remains a cause for concern. Dallas remains a flawed football team and now it hosts the defending Super Bowl Champions in the Saints, who will have revenge on their mind in this Thanksgiving Day contest. Remember, the Cowboys traveled to the Superdome last December and handed New Orleans its first loss of the season by a 24-17 score (and the game was not as close the score indicates, as the Cowboys had a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter). Tony Romo had a great game that night, completing 22-of-34 passes for 312 yards. Unfortunately for Dallas, Romo will not be on the field to repeat that performance given his shoulder injury. Jon Kitna has been serviceable as his replacement but his seven interceptions are not encouraging. Kitna and the Cowboys passing attack will be tested by a New Orleans pass defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding teams to just 186.3 passing YPG. The Saints defense has improved under the second year of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and now that the Saints have been "playing from ahead" these days, the defense is getting back to displaying more of the ferocity it showed last year. While not as opportunistic as last season (but Darren Sharper will return for this game), the Saints defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in both yards allowed (291.7 YPG) and points allowed (17.0 PPG). New Orleans has stepped up its game after the team's 20-10 win over the Steelers three weeks ago as the Saints have now won three in a row after their 34-19 win over Seattle last week, where the offense gained 494 total yards. On the road, the Saints are scoring 27.5 PPG while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 PPG. Part of this success can be attributed to their running game that is gaining 128 yards on the ground away from home, plus this rushing attack will get a big boost with the return of Reggie Bush from his broken fibula. Drew Brees and company will be a big challenge for the suspect Cowboys defense that is allowing more than 370 YPG and over 31 PPG on its home field. Any notion the Cowboys still retain a strong home field advantage has been disproven by the fact that they were 0-4 SU and ATS before last Sunday's win over the Lions (can that really be counted?). Preparing for the Saints on a short week is difficult enough. Now having to do it in the midst of a lost season will be too much for this Cowboys team. It is rare to be able to back a defending Super Bowl Champion with this kind of motivation during the regular season. New Orleans has an here to opportunity to avenge its first loss from last season plus even more importantly, the Saints have no "margin for error" in the NFC South and NEED this game. They still trail the Falcons (by one game) plus are only tied with the ever-surprising Bucs.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit Lions
On November 14, I took the New England Patriots in their Sunday night matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I mentioned that the Steelers had just been involved with back-to-back emotional contests. This week, it's the Patriots themselves, who're in the tough situation. New England is off wins over Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. One could argue that the Pats are off of five big efforts in their last six games. But any way you slice it, the Pats are going to be hard-pressed to maintain focus against Detroit on a short week. The Lions are 7-3 ATS and they're just a handful of plays away from being in playoff contention. The Lions have lost four games by three points or less. They have outgained four of their last five opponents, even outgaining the Cowboys in Sunday's 35-19 loss that was much closer than the final score indicates. We know what the Lions' defense can do. I believe we'll see strong numbers out of the offense also. The Lions' offense will face one of the league's worst defenses. The Patriots are 30th in total defense and 31st against the pass. They were shredded in the three-point win over Indy this past weekend. On Thursday, the Pats will face a Lions' attack that averages just three yards less per game than their own (336.4). At home, Detroit not only averages 50 total yards more per game than New England does on the road, but the Lions are averaging a whopping 33.2 ppg. This is not the offense New England wants to face, even if they were in a solid situation. I expect the Patriots to be the side that has to play "keep-up" in this one. The Pats have covered just one of their last six as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Lions are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record. And we're 27-6 ATS playing on home non-favorites against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season, provided our team is off at least three straight losses and own a win percentage of .250 or worse. This one fits the bill. I'm taking the points with the Lions on Thursday.
DOUBLE DRAGON
TOP
SAINTS -3 (-120)
REGULAR
LIONS / PATRIOTS OVER 51
JETS / BENGALS OVER 43.5
TEXAS A&M -3 (-120)
STEVE BUDIN
25 Dime New Orleans Saints
TRACE ADAMS
2000* Texas Longhorns
500* Cincinnati Bengals
DEREK MANCINI
25 Dime Detroit Lions
JOEL TYSON
50 Dime New Orleans Saints
10 Dime Texas Longhorns
ANTHONY REDD
30 Dime New Orleans Saints
30 Dime New Orleans Saints Under
30 Dime NY Jets UNDER
20 Dime NY Jets
20 Dime Detroit Lions
ANDY FANELLI
60 Dime NY Jets
25 Dime New England Patriots Under
CHUCK O'BRIEN
75 Dime NY Jets
CAJUN SPORTS
4-Star Outlaw Annihilator
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets -9
The Cincinnati Bengals travel east to the Big Apple for a meeting against the host New York Jets on Thursday night. In last season’s finale, the Bengals rested their starters against this same Jets team and lost 37 to 0. They did so knowing they were going to host the Jets the following week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs in the Queen City. Cincinnati’s plan backfired as the Jets took that game as well 24 to 14 as a 2.5-point road underdog. Revenge can be a powerful motivating factor but you must have the team and be playing well to force your will upon another team, revenge is just a word without those key elements. Cincinnati has lost seven straight games and coming off a demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills at home last week. A game in which they led 28 to 7 but eventually lost 49 to 31. Injuries to the Bengals secondary could be considered as a factor in that loss and overall but this team lacks the intensity it played with a year ago. Traveling on a short week and coming off an embarrassing loss, it is hard to believe the Bengals come through with an inspired performance this week, even against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Last year in the playoffs, the Jets held Bengals QB Carson Palmer to 146 yards passing on 50 percent completions with a 1-1 TD/INT ratio in the loss. Cincinnati’s defense has been a huge disappointment compared to last season when they had a plus 483 yards rushing differential and made a sack every sixteen-pass attempts, this year they have a minus 217 rushing yard differential and get a sack every 34-pass attempts. Last week this Bengals defense gave up thirty-five second half points in their loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Jets on the other hand have been solid this season after being shutout against the Packers they have won three straight although each required a rather dramatic finish a win is a win. They currently stand at 8-2 and are certainly in the hunt for a trip to the Big Show. New York has used a very strong defense especially against the run and allowing just seventeen points per game this season. Our TPR Index projects a Jets victory by 11.4 points over the Bengals on Thursday night. The Math Model projects a point differential of 3.8 points over a line range of -8.5 to -9.5 points and the PPR Index favors the host with a 29 to 13 advantage. The straight up winner in games involving Cincinnati is 11-1 against the spread just missing a perfect record of 12-0 by a single point. A check of our database reveals several powerful situations that are active for tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST NFL teams as a road underdog of seven or more points the week after a straight up loss at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. These road dogs are 6-22-1 ATS since 2000. The League is 5-22-1 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since November 20, 2008 as a 7-point or more underdog the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The League is 2-11-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a road underdog of seven or more points after a loss as a favorite against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The League is 0-7 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since December 02, 1999 as a seven or more point underdog the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-12-1 ATS (-10.4 ppg) October 1997 when they failed to cover by at least 21 points against a conference opponent in their last game. No revenge for the visitor as the Jets bury the towel tossing Bengals on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 4* New York Jets 30 Cincinnati Bengals 15
Derek Mancini
25 Dime Detroit Lions
Classic "too good to be true" scenario, as the public has jumped all over this turkey of a favorite this afternoon. Bad news for you chalk eaters out there, as I expect the revamped Lions to put up a hell of a fight against a Patriots team in a terrible situational spot.
First things first, the Patriots are off a big win over the Colts and their face AFC East rival/nemesis in the Jets next week. This game is perfectly sandwiched in between those two, making for a tremendous letdown/lookahead spot. The Lions meanwhile are relishing this spot to win a big game, at home, in front of a huge National TV audience.
Next if the Patriots have one weakness it comes against the pass, and that's music to the Lions ears. Lions have had a ton of trouble finding their run game now that Best is injured. Contrary to popular opinion, I view the injury to Matt Stafford as a good thing, because Shaun Hill has a ton of chemistry with Megatron, and the rest of the Lions receivers. Seriously, just look at his game to game stats, he's having as good a year as any backup QB in the NFL. Pats secondary is young, and gives up over 270 yards passing on the road this year. Over their last 3 games their surrendering 29 ppg on 306 passing yards per game... Sorry Patriots-backers, but the Lions offense is good enough to put up plenty of points on your defense.
Finally, say what you will about this Lions defense, but there's two things I like about them in this game. First they allow fewer points per game than this Pats defense (23 vs 24), and they excel against the pass, which obviously is key to beating New England. Their revamped defense is a big reason they're 4-0 ATS at Ford Field this season... Make it 5-0 ATS after this contest. Lions plus the points over the Patriots Thanksgiving Day.
Billy Coleman
3* Saints -4
3* Cal St Northridge +17
Teddy Covers
New Orleans Saints
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
3* Detroit
3* Dallas/N.Orleans Under
3* N.Y. Jets
3* Texas
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Lions