NSA
20* New Orleans -3½
20* New England -6½
20* NY Jets -9
20* Texas +3½
10* New Orleans/Dallas Over 50
10* New England/Detroit Over 50½
10* Cincinnati /NY Jets Under 43½
10* Texas A&M/Texas Over 47½
Wunderdog
3 Units Texas A&M -3.5
It has been a long time since the Aggies have had the better team coming into this huge Thanksgiving rivalry. Texas was ranked at the beginning of the season, but most of that was based on reputation. A 5-6 record later and the Horns have lost their mojo. Texas A&M is peaking at the right time, largely due to a change at QB where Ryan Tennehill has done two things. First, he has improved the Aggie passing game from the line of scrimmage. Second, he manages the game better than his predecessor. The result is that the Aggies have covered five straight. Texas has a tough defense, but the offense hasn't yet come around. Garrett Gilbert has been pedestrian at best with just nine TD passes and 15 INT's on the season. The Longhorns are suffering versus good teams with a 2-9 ATS mark in their last 11 versus teams over .500. Also, this team is just 19-30 ATS under Mack Brown when coming off a home win by 17+ points. I like Texas A&M in this one.
Mike Neri
3* NY Jets -9
3* New Orleans/Dallas Under 50
Sixth Sense
Opinions
New England –6.5 DETROIT 51
NE held on to win by three over Indy last week, giving way to a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter. They rushed for 168 yards at 4.9ypr to just 3.6ypr for Indianapolis but allowed 396 yards at 7.6yps to 6.8yps for themselves. Overall, they were out gained 6.5yppl to 5.8yppl but Indy threw the ball 26 more times to pad their overall numbers, while NE ran the ball 14 more times than Indy. Detroit lost its 27th straight road game at Dallas 35-19 as they allowed 134 yards rushing at 4.5ypr to just 3.8ypr for Detroit. They out passed Dallas 5.3yps to 5.0yps and overall out gained Dallas 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl but also threw the ball 24 more times than Dallas.
NE averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Detroit averages 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl.
NE qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. My numbers actually make this game a pick ‘em but the situation that applies favors NE. Numbers project about 58 points and there is a statistical situation that suggests this game will be high scoring although the total is set fairly high. Detroit has been competitive at home this year losing close games against Philadelphia and the Jets, while defeating St. Louis and Washington. No play for me here but I will lean towards Detroit and the over. NEW ENGLAND 31 DETROIT 27
New Orleans –4 DALLAS 50
NO rolled over Seattle last week 34-19. They averaged 3.9ypr to 3.4ypr and threw for 8.9yps but allowed an improving Seattle offense to average 8.3yps. Overall, they were out gained by Seattle, 7.0yppl to 6.9yppl. Dallas trailed at halftime to Detroit but out scored the Lions 14-0 in the fourth quarter to win 35-19. They out rushed Detroit 4.5ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 5.3yps to 5.0yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl but Detroit threw the ball 24 more times than Dallas.
NO averages 3.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 5.8yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. Dallas averages 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by two points and predict about 50 points. Dallas won in NO last year 24-17 as seven point dogs. NO is clearly playing better as of late but their last seven games have been against Arizona, TB, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Carolina twice and Seattle. Meanwhile, Dallas finally got their first home win of the season last week. I like the talent on Dallas but Drew Brees gets the advantage over Jon Kitna. NEW ORLEANS 28 DALLAS 24
NY JETS –9 Cincinnati 44
Things can’t get much worse for Cincinnati after getting blown out at home to Buffalo, 49-31, including being out scored 35-0 to end the game. Cincinnati did rush for 4.4ypr but allowed Buffalo 141 yards at 5.6ypr. Cincinnati threw for just 5.8yps but allowed Buffalo to throw for 8.8yps. Overall, Cincinnati was out gained 7.5yppl to 5.2yppl. The Jets escaped with a late win over Houston, 30-27. They were actually out rushed by Houston 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr, while throwing for 7.3yps but allowing Houston to throw for 7.2yps. Overall, Houston out gained the Jets 5.7yppl to 5.6yppl.
Cincinnati averages 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. The Jets average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Jets by 10 points and predict about 46 points. Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in each of their last seven games. NY JETS 30 CINCINNATI 17
Rainman
10* Dallas
3* Texas A&M
1* Jets
1* Dallas Over
1* Jets Over
Larry Ness
10* Thursday NFL GOY - Saints
There is a school of thought that believes that the firing of Wade Phillips is just what Dallas needed to kick start its season. The argument goes that Jason Garrett's demand for responsibility and accountability has refocused this team and has eliminated the mental errors that the Cowboys had been making this season. Some even argue that at 3-7, the Cowboys are still alive in the NFC playoff chase. I do NOT subscribe to these points of view. Looking back, Dallas' upset win over the Giants on the heels of the Phillips' firing was not too surprising given the aftermath of the Phillips' dismissal. However, let's not read too much into the Cowboys' 35-19 win at home last Sunday over a Lions team that has now experienced 26 straight losses on the road. In fact, the fact that Detroit still outgained the Cowboys by 71 yards of offense remains a cause for concern. Dallas remains a flawed football team and now it hosts the defending Super Bowl Champions in the Saints, who will have revenge on their mind in this Thanksgiving Day contest. Remember, the Cowboys traveled to the Superdome last December and handed New Orleans its first loss of the season by a 24-17 score (and the game was not as close the score indicates, as the Cowboys had a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter). Tony Romo had a great game that night, completing 22-of-34 passes for 312 yards. Unfortunately for Dallas, Romo will not be on the field to repeat that performance given his shoulder injury. Jon Kitna has been serviceable as his replacement but his seven interceptions are not encouraging. Kitna and the Cowboys passing attack will be tested by a New Orleans pass defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding teams to just 186.3 passing YPG. The Saints defense has improved under the second year of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and now that the Saints have been "playing from ahead" these days, the defense is getting back to displaying more of the ferocity it showed last year. While not as opportunistic as last season (but Darren Sharper will return for this game), the Saints defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in both yards allowed (291.7 YPG) and points allowed (17.0 PPG). New Orleans has stepped up its game after the team's 20-10 win over the Steelers three weeks ago as the Saints have now won three in a row after their 34-19 win over Seattle last week, where the offense gained 494 total yards. On the road, the Saints are scoring 27.5 PPG while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 PPG. Part of this success can be attributed to their running game that is gaining 128 yards on the ground away from home, plus this rushing attack will get a big boost with the return of Reggie Bush from his broken fibula. Drew Brees and company will be a big challenge for the suspect Cowboys defense that is allowing more than 370 YPG and over 31 PPG on its home field. Any notion the Cowboys still retain a strong home field advantage has been disproven by the fact that they were 0-4 SU and ATS before last Sunday's win over the Lions (can that really be counted?). Preparing for the Saints on a short week is difficult enough. Now having to do it in the midst of a lost season will be too much for this Cowboys team. It is rare to be able to back a defending Super Bowl Champion with this kind of motivation during the regular season. New Orleans has an here to opportunity to avenge its first loss from last season plus even more importantly, the Saints have no "margin for error" in the NFC South and NEED this game. They still trail the Falcons (by one game) plus are only tied with the ever-surprising Bucs.
8* Las Vegas Insider Detroit Lions
The Lions have been dismal at home on Thanksgiving Day over the last six years, losing and failing to cover in all six of these contests. The average score over this stretch has been an unappetizing 36-12. However, this historical backdrop presents a nice opportunity, as I think Detroit will finally be a dangerous home underdog this "Turkey Day." New England comes off its emotional 31-28 win over Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in the late afternoon game on Sunday. Now, with only three days to recuperate and prepare, the Patriots travel to Detroit to play the early Thanksgiving Day game. Bill Belichick has not coached against a Lions team since 2006 in the Rod Marinelli era, so he is not very familiar with this team under Jim Schwartz. As it is, New England is only 1-4-1 ATS this year as a favorite (home or away). The defense remains vulnerable as it ranks 31st (behind only pathetic Houston) in passing yards allowed (289.6 YPG) while ranking 30th in the NFL by allowing 394.3 YPG, overall. On the road, this unit is allowing 432 YPG and 29.3 PPG. Even with Shaun Hill at QB, the Lions possess a potent offense. Detroit is 6th in the NFL with its 255.9 passing YPG average. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has the opportunity for a big day against a Patriots secondary that does not have a shutdown cornerback. The Lions come off a 35-19 loss in Dallas last Sunday, despite the fact that they outgained the Cowboys by 71 yards on offense. Detroit returns home to Ford Field after two games in a row on the road. The last time the Lions were at home they blew a 10-point, 4th quarter lead in losing to the Jets, but only after taking the game to overtime. While 2-2 SU at home overall, Detroit has covered in all FOUR games, averaging 33.3 PPG. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense leads the league by scoring 28.9 PPG. However, this unit is gaining less than 300 YPG when on the road. Led by Ndamukong Suh, the Lions defense is holding opponents to just 212.3 passing YPG (12th in the NFL). The team's strong defensive line has the ability to wreak havoc with Brady's rhythm. FIVE of Detroit's eight losses this season have been by five points or less and the Lions have covered in SIX straight games against teams with a winning record. Given their likely letdown from the Colts game and the demands of travel on a short week, the Pats will be happy to just to escape Detroit with a win. The Lions may likely find another way to lose a football game but then again, maybe not. Not many 2-8 teams are 7-3 ATS but that's EXACTLY where the Lions stand on this Thanksgiving Day. If the Browns can 'spank' the Pats by a score of 34-14 on their home field, I can can take a TD (or almost one) here in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day!
8* Weekly Wipeout Texas
Texas A&M won its 5th game in a row after upsetting Nebraska last Saturday by a 9-6 score. At 8-3 for the season, the Aggies have scored impressive Big 12 wins against Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas Tech over the last month. Is this club really that good? Mike Sherman deserves credit for making the hard decision to bench three-year starting QB Jerrod Johnson for turning the ball over too many times. Ryan Tannehill has steadied the offense by throwing only three interceptions while completing 68.6% of his passes. However, it is interesting to note that over the Aggies' last three games, they are averaging 70 yards less in the air than their season's average of 295.7 passing YPG while gaining 80 YPG less overall than their current 455 total YPG average. So, while Tannehill's ball control has been helpful, there remains the question as to whether this offense is as potent as it was under Johnson. Now the Aggies go on the road for only the second time since October 23rd to play the Longhorns. Tannehill will likely need to generate more offense in this game since the A&M defense is allowing 26 PPG along with 395 total YPG when on the road this season. The Texas offense has stalled at many times this season but the Longhorns are gaining over 400 YPG in Austin this year, 30 YPG higher than their seasonal average. Texas comes off a 51-17 blowout of Florida Atlantic last week where the Longhorns totaled more than 500 yards of much-needed offense. The Longhorns accumulated 259 yards on the ground in that game while QB Garrett Gilbert was an efficient 15-of-21 for 263 yards and two TD passes. However, the strength of this Texas team is its defense which ranks 11th in the FBS in pass defense (164.6 YPG) and 8th in the FBS in yards allowed overall (294.2). On a short week, Texas is in a very good position to play one of its best games of the season, as this will be its third week in a row (and five out of the last six) at home in Austin. At 5-6 for the season, Mack Brown REALLY needs his team to pull out a win to ensure the Longhorns are, once again, bowl eligible. Texas last failed to play in a bowl game in the 1997 season, the year BEFORE Brown's arrival from North Carolina. These schools first met in '94, that's 1894 and this marks the 117th meeting. Brown is 9-3 SU vs A&M since arriving in Austin, including 5-1 here at home. He's also 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his final home game since coming to Austin. This will be just Mike Sherman's third A&M / Texas game and his team has been on the losing end the first two times, 49-9 and 49-39. What's more strange is that his Aggies were five-TD underdogs in Austin in 2008 and three-TD underdogs last year at home in College Station. Thanksgiving night 2010, the Aggies come in as a FG favorite in Austin. How strange is that? Don't count out the Longhorns just yet, as I expect a SUPER effort, as the Longhorns become bowl eligible, catching A&M off its emotional 9-6 win last week over Nebraska. Brown was a 2 1/2-point underdog to Texas A&M in his first-ever Aggies/Longhorns game in 1998, winning 26-24. His team hasn't been an underdog vs A&M since. That game, like this one, was played in Austin. Can you say déjà vu?
The Boss
1000% godfather New Orleans
700% roundtable New England
College football Texas
College hoops: BC Wisconsin Stanford
KELSO
50 UNITS TEXAS A&M AGGIES -3
25 UNITS WISCONSIN BADGERS -20
5 UNITS TEMPLE OWLS -5
4 UNITS OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS -10
3 UNITS UNLV REBELS -8.5
5 UNITS NO SAINTS -3.5
4 UNITS DETROIT LIONS +7
3 UNITS CINCINNATI BENGALS +9
RAS
Virginia Tech/Cal State Northridge Over 142
SEABASS
100 *New Orleans
100* Jets Under 44
200* Steam Detroit
200* Steam Texas Longhorns
Steve Deumig
Lions
Saints
Texas A&M
1. Asa /7t pass / pass
2. Ats / 4-no, 3-ne
3. Ben burns /7t / 10-det, cinn under, 9-det under, no under
4. Big money /2 pass / jets
5. Blazer pass / 3-no
6. Carolina sports /5t 4-tx a&m / 3- no
10. Inside info pass / 2-dall under
11. Joe d 15-tx a&m, / pass
12. Kelso 50- tx a&m, / 5- no, 40 det, 3- cinn
13. Lenny stevens 10- tx a&m / 20- no, 10-ne
14. Lt profits /5t pass / pass
15. Million club 4 pass / 2- det
16. Nationwide (goldst) pass / pass
17. Neri 1 pass / 3-dall under, jets
18. Ness 8-tx / 10-gom: No , det
19. Northcoast op: Tx / 2- no, op: Cinn over, ne over
20. Preferred picks op: Tx / op: Dal
21. Private players 3 2-tx / no, jets
22. Pure lock /1 pass / pass
24.underdog pass / pass
25. Wildcat pass / 5- ne jets over
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Saints
15 Dime Saints Over
The Boooj
New England
New Orleans
The Duke's Sports
New York Jets (-9) for 2 Units
The Jets haven't been a dominating team ATS and barely squeaking by teams in OT. We do like the way the Jets' defense was pissed off after allowing Houston back in the game in the 4th quarter. They take pride in their unit and should play better tonight. On the other hand, the underachieving Bengals --on a 1-6 ATS slide -- have given up points easily lately (nearly 30 ppg last 3 weeks) and should struggle more tonight; after all, their secondary is ravaged by injuries and the organization was forced to bring in a few defensive backs to see immediate field action. For DC Mike Zimmer, that is a nightmare to integrate new secondary talent into his system at this stage of the season. We'll look for NY to capitalize on it and finally deliver a decisive win. The Bengals are playing with revenge from last year's early playoff exit; however, they're in no shape to avenge anything. They're 3-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home and 3-10 ATS after allowing 350+ yards the previous week. We'll jump on the Jets that are 5-1 ATS at home vs a non-division opponent playing with revenge