SIXTH SENSE
Opinions
Green Bay -10.5 DETROIT 48
Packers opened up a big lead and then held on against SF last week. GB rushed for 158 yards at 4.9ypr but allowed SF to average 6.9ypr, although 42 of their 69 yards came on one play by Frank Gore. Otherwise, they averaged 3.0ypr. Packers averaged 6.9yps and allowed SF 6.0yps. All total, GB averaged 6.1yppl to SF 6.2yppl. Detroit was involved in the most exciting game of the week against Cleveland. Detroit averaged just 3.4ypr to 3.3ypr for Cleveland but averaged 9.5yps, throwing for 416 yards but allowed an anemic Browns offense to average 8.8yps. All told, Detroit out gained Cleveland 7.8yppl to 5.9yppl, primarily because they threw the ball nine more times, while Cleveland rushed the ball 23 more times than Detroit. For the season, GB averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Detroit averages just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by 11 points and predict about 52 points. GB has faced three bad teams on the road this year (StL, Clev, TB) and scored 36, 31 and 28 points. They allowed 17, 3 and 38 points. The 38 points were primarily because of turnovers and kick returns. Detroit has faced two good teams at home this year losing 13-27 to Minnesota and 20-28 to Pittsburgh. GB has played high scoring games here the last nine years. They have totaled at least 48 points here in seven of the last nine played here and six of those nine have seen at least 55 points scored. The last three played here have totaled 73, 63 and 55 points, with GB winning by 23, 11 and 7 points. GB got back some key personnel on offense last week in Jermichael Finley, Jordie Nelson and Mark Tauscher. They also lost two key people on defense for the year in Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. Detroit will most likely be without Matthew Stafford but also may be without Calvin Johnson. Not knowing how the Packers defense will play without Harris and Kampman, I’ll lean to Detroit for the cover here. I’ll also lean towards the over but not make it a best bet because of the unknown status of Johnson. Also, not sure how the Packers will approach their offensive game plan without Harris and Kampman on defense. GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 23
DALLAS -13.5 Oakland 40
Cowboy’s offense really struggled for the second week in a row at home against Washington. They managed to win the game 7-6 but were out passed 6.5yps to 5.4yps and out gained overall 5.6yppl to 5.0yppl. They did out rush Washington 4.6ypr to 3.9ypr and the overall numbers are skewed a little because Dallas rushed the ball 13 more times, while Washington passed 10 more times. Oakland got the upset at home against Cincinnati. They were out passed 6.8yps to 5.4yps and out gained overall 5.1yppl to 4.7yppl but they finally sported almost decent numbers in the passing game. They were out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.8ypr and 177-92 but the fact their passing numbers were almost normal has to give them hope going forward. Oakland averages just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr and 4.2yps against 6.0yps for a total of 4.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr and 6.7yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Dallas averages 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr and 7.1yps against 6.1yps for a total of 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is average, allowing 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 18 points and predict about 33 points. Dallas may be without Jason Witten as he will be a game time decision. Dallas has struggled on offense the last three games but they have played three good defenses in those games. I’ll lean their way as I will have to see more from Bruce Gradkowski before I think the Raiders passing game has turned the corner. Gradkowski wasn’t performing that well prior to last week so let’s see what happens on the road before we make any major adjustments for Oakland. DALLAS 27 OAKLAND 10
NY Giants -6.5 DENVER 42
Giants escaped with an OT win over Atlanta last week but they dominated the passing game, averaging 9.2yps to just 5.5yps for Atlanta. Overall, they out gained Atlanta, 6.9yppl to 4.5yppl. Denver lost a fourth straight game and it wasn’t close again. They were blown out by SD 32-3. They did out rush SD 6.8ypr to 4.7ypr but were out passed 6.6yps to 4.3yps. Chris Simms started the game and was awful. Once Kyle Orton got in the game, he averaged close to 5.9yps. Denver also lost the turnover battle 0-3, including crucial turnovers in Charger territory. The final wasn’t as bad as it looked but SD still controlled the game from start to finish. Giants average 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense allows 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Denver averages 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Denver barely qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 129-68-5. They also qualified in this situation last week and lost. Numbers favor Denver by three points if I use season stats. If I just look at the last four games, numbers favor the Giants by about 10 or 11 points. Full season stats predict about 46 points. If I use just the last four games, they predict about 47 points. If I use their stats against similar competition, they predict about 37 points. What’s most alarming about Denver’s defense is they have now allowed the following yards rushing over the last four games: Baltimore 125 yards (average 116), Pittsburgh 173 yards (average 112), Washington 174 yards (average 104) and SD 203 yards (average 88). Now, they get another solid rushing team. They may also be without Brian Dawkins in this game. I’m not going to lay this many points with the Giants but can’t back Denver until I see something more positive out of Denver. Slight lean to Denver because their game last week wasn’t as bad as the final score. If they eliminate turnovers and can keep Orton healthy, they have a chance to compete in this game. NY GIANTS 27 DENVER 21
Trace Adams
1500♦ Dallas Cowboys
SMART ANALYSIS SPORTS HANDICAPPING
3* Dallas/ Oakland OVER 40
2* Detroit +12
1* OPINION Detroit/Green Bay UNDER 47.5
Rainman
3* Green Bay -11' over Detroit
1* Dallas -13' over Oakland
1* Texas -21 over Texas A&M
1* Texas & Texas A&M over 62
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
NFL
7*DESTROYER DET/GB OVER 47.5
5*DETROIT+11.5
5*GIANTS-6
5*NYG/DEN UNDER 42
NHL
5*COLUMBUS+110
NCAA
5*TEXAS A+M +21
Don Wallace Sports
Denver +6.5 over New York
Utah -7 over Chicago
Gamebreaker
Denver / NY Giants
Good time for Denver to fight hard in prime time. They have the big losing streak but they've run into the wrong teams at the wrong time and injuries at QB have hurt. The Giants don't deserve to be laying this many on the road and were an OT field goal away from continuing their long losing streak. What I like is the poorer play of the Giants D recently and that will allow the Broncos to earn the cover as a prime time home dog. Denver +6 for a 4* play.
Dallas / Oakland
A rare big fav but last week's results set up perfectly for it. Oakland caught Cincy at the perfect time and are now traveling on a short week after pulling the upset. Traveling off that kind of win for an inconsistent team is often a train wreck in the following week and it magnifies it with a short week and being a west coast team. The Dallas D has enough to seriously limit the Raiders while the Dallas running game is in a great spot to pound the Raiders and let this team make a statement in front of a national audience. Good running opens up the passing game and I think all this combined gets the Cowboys a lopsided win. Just one other note. After the Raider upset and the Dallas stinker last week, I really feel like the oddsmaker is laying a trap opening the Raiders as a 2 TD underdog. It's done a good job to split the action so far but there are reasons for every number that gets set. Take Dallas -13.5 for a 3* regular play.
Thanks for the help today Ice 😉
I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving. ;D
Some of us actually have to work today. 🙁
Savannah Sports
2* Green Bay -11
2* Oakland +13.5
2* Denver +6.5
2* Texas -21
GREAT LAKES SPORTS
4* Green Bay -11.5
Underground Sports Connection
100* Oakland Raiders +13.5
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Detroit as they face the Green Bay Packers set to start on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an incredible 25-1 ATS since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a win percentage of <=25% playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. The SU record of this system is an amazing 17-10 and 48% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 24-7 for 77% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 8 or more points. It is very rare that any system approaches a 50% 7 or greater cover level so these are two rare and very supportive systems for this play. Green Bay has never been a good investment when favored by 10 or more points. Note that they are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. AIS also shows a 93% probability that Detroit will allow 250 to 300 net passing yards in this game. Note that over the past 3 seasons Detroit is a strong 8-1 ATS when allowing 250 to 300 net passing yards. The Lions offense took flight last week. Stafford will not start, but Daunte Culpepper is starting and will certainly want to show the league he can still play. Last week’s offensive performance was a complete team effort and I do not see much drop off – if any at all – with Culpepper behind center. Take Detroit.
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Dallas as they take on Oakland set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Dallas will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 25-7 ATS over the past 5 seasons. Play on favorites when playing on a Thursday. Here is a 2nd supporting system proven by the test of 27 years. It has produced a record of 159-102 ATS for 61% winners since 1983. Play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog after the first month of the season. Oakland is in a series of poor roles while Dallas in a series of strong ones for this game. Oakland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=285 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. Dallas has failed to score in the past 2 weeks like a conference leader, but the matchups certainly favor a big output in this game. Oakland won last week led by QB Bruce Gradkowski, but they will struggle to score points against a Dallas defense that is playing quite well. He was successful at getting the WR involved in the game last week against the unfocused Bengals. This week will be far tougher as Dallas has two outstanding corners in man coverage. They are Mike ******* and Terence Newman. Let’s not forget too that the Raiders rank 30th in 3rd down conversions at 27.9% and I don’t see them even converting 25% in this game. Romo has struggled to connect and has the third worst completion percentage in the league and ranks 2nd with 62 “poor throws”. I believe a lot of this has occurred as the OC Garrett has chosen to change the schemes and routes somewhat in an attempt to make film study of their previous games meaningless. They will pound the ball and then use play action pass to set-up scoring strikes. Take Dallas.
Wunderdog
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
5 Units: Denver Broncos +7 (-130)
Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their victorious streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown.
ATS Financial Package
Dallas
GB/Det Over
Tony Stoffo
Giants at Broncos
Pick: Over 42
With the Giants winning on Sunday and the Broncos looking horrible at home against the Chargers the odds makers have posted a really inflated winner here for tonight making the Giants a touchdown favorite. First off let's remember this Giants team is a perfect 0-5 against the spread in their last 5, and now have to go play on a short week in the thin air in Denver. I just don't feel they can over come all this especially with the way their decimated defense is playing as of late, and with the Broncos announcing that Orton will get the start here I feel the home standing Broncos get the win here in a high scoring game.
Giants are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 15-5-2 in Broncos last 22 games following a S.U. loss.