MAXIMUS REPORT
LOCKS ---------------------------------Prediction
MICHIGAN -6 1/2-----------------------MICHIGAN 84-60
MINNESOTA +1 1/2---------------------MINNESOTA 66-60
SOLIDS
BAYLOR -1-----------------------------BAYLOR 74-65
CLEMSON -6---------------------------CLEMSON 80-61
HOUSTON +1---------------------------HOUSTON 86-79
Nick Parsons
NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the visitors:
Eli Manning had his strongest day of the year, completing 25-of-39 passes for a season-high 384 yards with three TD's and an INT to get Big Blue back into the win column in last weeks 34-31 OT victory over Atlanta, and now with the monkey off their collective backs, I expect New York, and especially Manning, to settle down and return to form.
Of concern obviously is the Giants defense, but it will have a chance to redeem itself against Kyle Orton and the floundering Broncos. Despite their recent slide, and injuries, New York still has the second ranked pass defense in the league (177.4 ypg)
It's true the Giants are 0-5 ATS their last five overall, but this is a team that knows how to win on the road; 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.
On the other side of the field: The wheels have fallen off for the Broncos and I look for this team to continue to struggle. They've lost four straight and haven't scored an offensive TD in dropping their last two at Invesco Field.
After allowing just 11 points per game during their 6-0 start, the Broncos have given up more than 29 per outing during their four-game slide.
It comes as no surprise then to find that Denver is 1-4 ATS its last five and 3-9-1 ATS its last 13 in front of the hometown crowd.
Bottom line: I saw nothing in the Broncos game against the Chargers which would suggest they are on the cusp of regaining their form and expect Manning to be the focal point of this game; look for the GIANTS to move to a perfect 2-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points and for the Broncos to fall to 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points! 9* GIANTS.
Ron Raymond
Raiders/Cowboys OVER 40.5
When OAKLAND RAIDERS played as a road team - Won Last Game by 3 Points or Less; the OVER is 14-6-0 for the Raiders in this role.
Forecast: Dallas 26 Oakland 16
Rocketman
DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5
Oakland is 2-8 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Oakland is scoring 10.8 points per game overall and 10.5 points per game on the road this year. Oakland is allowing 26.7 points per game on the road this year. Dallas is scoring 26.8 points per game at home this year. Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12. Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in November. Cowboys are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Cowboys are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf. We'll play Dallas for 5 units today!
Evan Altemus
Giants/Broncos OVER 42
Both of these teams have defenses that have been surprisingly porous lately. The Giants defense has been torched in their last five games by Arizona, San Diego, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, despite having leads in three of those games. They were unable to come up with stops in games against San Diego, Atlanta, and Arizona, despite having the game on the line. Now they have to travel on the road against a Denver team that will have their starting quarterback, Kyle Orton, back for the full game. He is so critical to this team having any offensive success, and they were able to move the ball once he entered the game last week. However, the Broncos fell behind by too much for him to have an impact. In fact, the game could have taken a completely different turn if back-up running back Knowshon Moreno wouldn’t have fumbled at the goal line. Meanwhile, the Giants offense is having no problems moving the ball, as Eli Manning has fully recovered from his foot injury from earlier in the season. I expect them to move the ball at will against a Broncos defense that allowed San Diego, one of the worst running teams in football, to move the ball at will against them with their running back. Safety Brian Dawkins is banged up for this game, and will likely be severely limited even if he does play. I expect this game to be surprisingly higher scoring and go over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION OVER.
SPECIAL K
7* MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Mark Lawrence
Dallas -13.5
DISCOUNT SPORTS
10* Butler Pk
5* Green Bay/Detroit OVER 47.5
Pro Picks Weekly
5* G BAY -11
5* DALLAS -13.5
Lenny Del Genio
DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5
While he and his team's December struggles are well noted, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been outstanding in the month of November compiling a 14-1 SU record. He has been particularly effective on Thanksgiving Day, winning all three starts, while throwing for 832 yards and 10 touchdown passes. Last year, we cashed our #1 Turkey Day play on the Cowboys, a 34-9 winner over Seattle as 12-point favorites. This year, we find them in a similar price range against a much worse Raiders team. Yes, Oakland is off a shocking outright win over the previously 7-2 Bengals, but they were quite fortunate to emerge victorious. They tied the game on a late TD pass and then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and turned it into the game-winning field goal. The Silver and Black had just two previous wins on its resume and note how poorly they have performed off the pair of victories. In Week 3, they were blown out by the Broncos 23-3. In Week 7, they were annihilated by the Jets 38-0. In those two losses, they were outgained 819-400 and allowed 531 yards rushing! In other words, look for Cowboys RB's Barber and Jones to have a field day here! Before you go annointing Raiders QB Gradkowski as the second-coming (his 2 TD passes doubled the team's TD pass total for the season), note that he has a career 60.0 QB rating and 11-16 TD-INT ratio in four seasons. Dallas is our Thanksgiving Day Feast.
Bob Balfe
NY Giants -6
Opposite Action Plays
Dallas -13.5
KBHoops
5* Clemson -6 *POD*
4* Detroit Lions +11.5
4* Dallas Cowboys -13.5
Pitbull
20 units Clemson -6
10 units Marquette +6
10 units NY Giants -6
10 units Texas -21
Sports Bank
400 Denver Under
SCORE
300% Green Bay
300% Texas A&M
Dave Malinsky
4* Detroit +10.5
LARRY NESS
Turkey Day 10*
The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. However, let's not forget how bad the Raiders can be. They run for just 102.3 YPG (3.9 YPC) and the offense has been inept most of the season, especially on the road. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games, scoring just 29 points (9.7 per) while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Oakland has yet to win (or cover) in back-to-back contests this season and why would that change here in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, with the Raiders off a 'miracle' win over the Bengals and playing a road game on a very 'short' week? My 'BET' is that it won't! Turkey Day 10* Dal Cowboys.
NFL Total of the Week
The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Coming off tow AWFUL offensive games (especially here at home playing on Thanksgiving Day, which has become a tradition), expect the Dallas offense to deliver. As for the Raiders, Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. Gradkowski is the perfect example of a journeyman player keeping himself in shape physically and mentally, just waiting for a chance." He's got that chance here and while trading scores with the Cowboys may not be realistic, I do expect Gradkowski to lead the Raiders to a few scores. With this low total, as long as those scoring drives are TDs and not FGs, this game will go over with plenty of room to spare. NFL Total of the Week 9* Oak/Dal Over.
Lone Star Showdown
Texas beat Baylor 47-14 on November 14th. That win saw Texas reach 10 wins for the ninth straight season, second only to Florida State's run of 14 consecutive 10-win seasons from 1987-2000. Texas then beat Kansas last Saturday 51-20 and that win clinched the school's first Big South title since 2005, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to the school's first undisputed national championship in 36 years. Texas A&M beat Baylor 38-3 last Saturday here in College Station, giving the Aggies six wins and making them bowl-eligible. It's a nice improvement for second-year head coach Mike Sherman who led the Aggies to just four wins in 2008. All the pressure is on Texas in this game, as with a win here and on December 5 vs Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game, the Longhorns will gain a spot in the BCS championship game against the winner of the SEC title game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama. McCoy finished second in last year's Heisman voting and will be among the finalists again this year. Saturday's win improved McCoy to 43-7 in his career, breaking the record he shared with former Georgia quarterback David Greene (2001-2004) for most-ever wins by an NCAA starting QB. McCoy has thrown a TD pass in 28 consecutive games (has at least one TD pass in 37 of his last 38 games), which is the longest active streak in the nation. McCoy posted a 34-8 ratio last year but it's a more modest 23-9 this year. He completed an NCAA single-season record 76.7 percent of his passes last year and while he won't likely top that in 2009, it's not as if his 73.0 percent mark in 2009 is "chopped liver" (in fact, it leads the nation). His 108 TD passes in his career is the most of any active QB and he continues to extend his career record of TDs responsible for (passing, rushing, receiving) at Texas, as his total is now up 127. Considering the Aggies have the 11th-worst pass defense in the nation, allowing 259.0 YPG, that looks like a very favorable matchup for McCoy and the Longhorns. Let's also note that the Texas defense ranks third in the nation in total yards allowed (238.7) and seventh in points allowed (13.3). McCoy completed 23-of-28 passes for 311 yards (2 TDs / 0 TDs) in last year's 49-9 win at Austin, the largest margin of victory in the rivalry since a 48-0 Texas victory way back in 1898 (that's a long time ago). The Texas D held the Aggies to just 245 total yards and minus-24 yards rushing. The Longhorns also sacked QBs Jerrod Johnson and Stephen McGee six times. The Aggies have had some 'ugly' losses this year, 47-19 vs Arkansas in Arlington, 62-14 at Kansas St and 65-10 at Oklahoma. However, the Aggies are 5-1 SU at home this year, averaging an impressive 274.8 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC) in their five wins. Jerrod Johnson, a 6-foot-5 junior QB, has set single-season school records for completions (241), passing yards (2,875), TD passes (24) and 300-yard games (four) for A&M this season. He has thrown just five INTs (in 406 attempts), four fewer than McCoy has thrown. A&M's lone home loss came vs Oklahoma St and in that game, the Aggies were held to just 109 yards rushing (2.7 YPC) and that's significant because Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation in rush D, allowing 50.1 YPG on 1.7 YPC. Does that scare me off taking the Aggies? The simple answer is N-O! McCoy was great vs A&M last year but he was 0-2 in his first two games vs the Aggies, as A&M won 12-7 at Texas (+13.5) in 2006 and 38-30 (+7) at College Station in 2007. In those two Texas losses, McCoy completed just 56.7 percent of his passes and had one TD and four INTs. Rivalry games are just that. They seem to take on a "life of their own." This game will be the schools' 116th meeting (first game was in 1894), playing every year since 1915. In the 2007 game at College Station, the Aggies out-gained the Longhorns 533-357 yards and led wire-to-wire. In 2005 (also at College Station), the year Texas would win the national title, A&M out-gained the Longhorns 398-336 yards (22-18 in FDs) in a 40-29 loss (as 28-point 'dogs). Vince Young, who would complete 30-of-40 passes for 267 yards plus run for 200 yards and three TDs in a 41-38 win over USC in the BCS championship game (ending Southern Cal's 34-game winning streak and denying the Trojans an unprecedented third straight national championship), was held to 19 YR (11 carries) while completing 13-of-24 passes for 162 yards. Rivalry games can be special. Texas wins but NOT by any real margin. Lone Star Showdown on Texas A&M. (9*).