Bob Balfe
Georgia Tech +13
Virginia Tech started out the year 0-2. After their loss to James Madison, they have started to look like a good football team, winning and covering six in a row. Georgia Tech has one of the best running games in the nation and, on defense, just about every starter has a solid amount of experience. VTech has not really played a quality team in the past six weeks outside of NC State and I still do not think they are as good as some of the Hokie squads we have seen in the past. Look for both teams to run the ball a lot. The winner of time of possession will win the game. I really like the Yellow Jacket offense and think they will do well against a smaller Hokies defense. Georgia Tech has a decent defense and should keep this game close with a great chance of winning outright. Take Georgia Tech.
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Ohio
3 Units Portland
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Virgina Tech
john Fina
3 Units Georgia Tech +13.5
Jeff Benton
100 Dime - Georgia Tech
Let’s start with an explanation as to why I believe we’re dealing with an incredibly inflated line in this game. First, the Yellow Jackets are coming off a disappointing 27-13 loss at Clemson as a 3½-point road underdog, a setback that ended a three-game winning streak against two ACC also-rans (Wake Forest and Virginia) and a Sun Belt opponent (Middle Tennessee). In fact, the best two opponents Georgia Tech has faced this season – N.C. State and Clemson – have crushed the Jackets by 17 and 14 points, respectively.
Meanwhile, since a stunning 21-16 home loss to James Madison – which occurred just five days after a heartbreaking three-point loss to Boise State – Virginia Tech has ripped off six consecutive double-digit wins and six consecutive easy spread-covers. And in their last two victories against Duke and Wake Forest, the Hokies won by a cumulative score of 96-28 while outgaining both by a total of 542 yards (1,096 yards to 554).
Well, when a team that’s won AND covered six straight games (and done so in such dominating fashion) is facing an opponent that’s suffered double-digit losses to its two toughest opponents, you get pointspread that is simply not accurate. Further proving my point, the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas put out pointspreads for nearly 200 college football games back in mid-June. You know what the odds for this contest were then? Virginia Tech minus-4.
That, my friends, is some serious line value!
Now we get to the reason why I believe Georgia Tech not only covers this number wire to wire, but will be in the game with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. And it all boils down to one fundamental matchup.
Georgia Tech, as you likely know, runs the triple-option offense – and runs it better than any team in the country, as evidenced by the fact the Yellow Jackets lead the nation with 317.4 rushing yards per game. And only five teams (four of whom are ranked – Nebraska, Oregon, Auburn and Nevada) average more yards per carry than Georgia Tech (5.7 ypc).
OK, you also likely know that the Hokies (as usual) have one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, giving up just 20 points and 336.4 total yards per game. However, if there is a chink in Va-Tech’s armor, it’s stopping the run. It’s not the 136 rushing ypg that the Hokies surrender (that’s decent); it’s the 4.4 yards per rushing attempt that they allow. And in their last three games, the Hokies have surrendered 160.3 rushing ypg and a whopping 5.3 yards per carry.
Here’s why that latter start is so alarming: Virginia Tech’s last three opponents (Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke) trailed BIG in those games, and yet they still were able to peel off huge chunks of yardage on the ground. If the Hokies struggle to slow the running games of Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke, how are they going to contain Georgia Tech’s ground attack (especially with the Hokies having had 10 full days to prepare for this game and thus add new wrinkles)? And in case you forget, the best team Virginia Tech has faced this season (Boise State) racked up 168 rushing yards on just 24 carries, or 7 yards per rush!
Admittedly, the Yellow Jackets have had their own problems stopping the run, giving up 162.2 ypg. And Virginia Tech grinds out 214.8 ypg on the ground. But despite allowing nearly 30 more rushing ypg than the Hokies, Georgia Tech’s opponents average slightly less yards per carry (4.3) than Va-Tech’s opponents (4.4).
Speaking of Virginia Tech’s opponents, you take away Boise State and North Carolina State (which led the Hokies by scores of 17-0, 24-13 and 27-21 while finishing with a 507-440 edge in total offense), and who has Frank Beamer’s team really played? I already mentioned the last three games against Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke, plus Division I-AA James Madison. The other foes were East Carolina and Boston College. Not exactly murderer’s row, right?
Also, these teams have split their last four meetings, with Georgia Tech covering the spread in three of those contests. In fact, the underdog is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including the Yellow Jackets’ 28-23 home win as a 3½-point ‘dog last year (by the way: They rushed for 309 yards!).
Finally, let’s acknowledge three big advantages for Virginia Tech from a pointspread perspective: The Hokies have cashed in 17 of their last 21 November contests, 17 of their last 22 when playing in these nationally televised Thursday night contests and 36 of 52 against winning teams. Not too shabby, right? Well, Georgia Tech has been gold on the road under third-year coach Paul Johnson (13-5 ATS); it is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a road underdog; and it is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog of more than 10 points.
The last time the Yellow Jackets were this big of an underdog? Nov. 19, 2005, when they went to Miami and won outright 14-10 as a 19-point pup. The last time they failed to cover as this big of an underdog? Against Miami the previous season – Oct. 2, 2004 – when they fell 27-3 as a 14-point home pup.
I’m telling you guys this pointspread is a JOKE, and Georgia Tech – which hasn’t given up more than 27 points to Virginia Tech since 2005 and has allowed more than 28 points just once in the last nine games – will be ready to go tonight and will stay within the number from the opening kickoff to the final gun.
Your First-Ever 100 Dime College Football Midweek Game of the Year is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Final predicted score: Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 24.
Rocky Sheridan
10* GOW* Vancouver +100
5* Georgia Tech +13
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Ohio -15.5
10* Va Tech Over
10* Va Tech
10* Canucks/Avalanche Under
10* Portland Over
Nick Bogdanovich
Va Tech
KELSO
10 Units Virginia Tech Hokies -13
5 Units New York Knicks +7
5 Units Portland Trail Blazers -5
Anthony Redd
20 Dime Ohio
20 Dime Georgia Tech
20 Dime Portland
Northcoast
Marquee - Buffalo/Ohio U Over 45
Opinion - Virginia Tech - 13
SEABASS
200* Vancouver
100* G Tech
50* Portland
Lenny Del Genio
Virginia Tech / Georgia Tech Over 56
Last three meetings between the teams have all stayed under the total, but that's a bit misleading as Georgia Tech was held scoreless for nearly the entire first half LY, but exploded for 28 points after that. This year, the Hokies have scored 40+ in four straight games and five of their six wins overall. Georgia Tech has a terrible defense, allowing nearly 25 PPG on the road, but the offense can score with four games of 30+ points themselves. Over Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech is our 20* Thursday Total of the Month.
Ben Burns
Buffalo / Ohio Under 46
Vancouver / Colorado Under 6
Chuck O'Brien
Ohio